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1.
季节性的降雨及其所引起的地下水状态的变化是促使日本大型结晶片岩滑坡活动和诱发灾害发生的重要原因。基于对一典型结晶片岩滑坡、降雨和地下水位的长期观测,利用Tank模型建立了一种模拟滑坡地下水位变化的方法。通过对滑体内不同观测点地下水位实际观测数据与模拟结果的对比分析,证明所采用的模拟方法能够很好地再现地下水位随降雨的变化形态,从而为预测和评价降雨型滑坡的地下水状态变化提供了依据。 相似文献
2.
Landslides are mainly triggered by decrease in the matric suction with deepening the wetting band by rainfall infiltrations. This paper reports rainfall-induced landslides in partially saturated soil slopes through a field study. A comprehensive analysis on Umyeonsan (Mt.) landslides in 2011 was highlighted. The incident involves the collapse of unsaturated soil slopes under extreme-rainfall event. Fundamental studies on the mechanism and the cause of landslides were carried out. A number of technical findings are of interest, including the failure mechanism of a depth of soil and effect of groundwater flow, the downward movement of wetting band and the increase of groundwater level. Based on this, an integrated analysis methodology for a rainfall-induced landslide is proposed in this paper that incorporates the field matric suction for obtaining hydraulic parameters of unsaturated soil. The field matric suction is shown to govern the rate of change in the water infiltration for the landslide analysis with respect to an antecedent rainfall. Special attention was given to a one-dimensional infiltration model to determine the wetting band depth in the absence of the field matric suction. The results indicate that landslide activities were primarily dependent on rainfall infiltration, soil properties, slope geometries, vegetation, and groundwater table positions. The proposed methodology has clearly demonstrated both shallow and deep-seated landslides and shows good agreement with the results of landslide investigations. 相似文献
3.
A rainfall-induced shallow landslide is a major hazard in mountainous terrain, but a time-space based approach is still an unsettled issue for mapping rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazards. Rain induces a rise of the groundwater level and an increase in pore water pressure that results in slope failures. In this study, an integrated infinite slope analysis model has been developed to evaluate the influence of infiltration on surficial stability of slopes by the limit equilibrium method. Based on this new integrated infinite slope analysis model, a time-space based approach has been implemented to map the distributed landslide hazard in a GIS (Geographic Information Systems) and to evaluate the shallow slope failure induced by a particular rainfall event that accounts for the rainfall intensity and duration. The case study results in a comprehensive time-space landslide hazard map that illustrates the change of the safety factor and the depth of the wetting front over time. 相似文献
4.
Yao-Ming Hong 《Landslides》2017,14(5):1815-1826
The purpose of this study is to develop the feed-forward back-propagation neural network (FFBPNN) to estimate the groundwater level (GL) of next hour according the current GL and past precipitation depth in the hillslope. The 72-h precipitation depth and the real-time groundwater levels are used as the model output layer determination variables. The output variables, are type 1, the GL, which has been used in many researches, and type 2, the groundwater level fluctuation (GLF), which is the difference between the current-time and the next-time groundwater level. The order of the water level fluctuation is less than that of the groundwater level by about one order of magnitude (ten times). The landslide area at the downstream of Wu-She Reservoir, Nantou County, Taiwan, is adopted as a field test area. Total 328 cases of Sinlaku typhoon were used to establish the prediction model of real-time GL. Another 327 cases of Jangmi typhoon were adopted to illustrate the model application. The result of model application shows that root-mean-square error of type 2 (=0.104 m) is smaller than that of type 1 (=0.408 m). In conclusion, the forecasting method used GLF gives a much better agreement with the measured values than that of GL. 相似文献
5.
On Shikoku Island, which is one of the four main islands of Japan, a large number of large-scale crystalline schist landslides have been revealed and are being monitored by an observation system. Seasonal heavy rainfall is the most active meteorological factor that can threaten the stability of this kind of site-specific landslide. In this paper, on the basis of the study of the rainfall-related behavior of a typical crystalline schist landslide, the Zentoku landslide, by analyzing the precisely and continuously observed piezometric and movement data, a method was developed to quantitatively assess the effect of heavy rainfall on a large-scale landslide. The results indicated that heavy rainfall-induced landslide displacement shows good correlation with the variation of groundwater levels. Variations of groundwater level have been simulated with the use of a tank model. The simulation using this model permits the change in water levels for future rainfall events to be predicted. By combining the predicted results with the empirical relation between displacements and water levels, rainfall-induced landslide movement during extreme rainfall events can be estimated in advance. The effect of heavy rainfall on sliding behavior can be quantified in terms of the change in displacement. Thus warning information or advisories for the local residents can be provided. 相似文献
6.
Prediction of landslide movements with practical application for landslide risk mitigation is a challenge for scientists. This study presents a methodology for prediction of landslide movements using random forests, a machine learning algorithm based on regression trees. The prediction method was established based on a time series consisting of 2 years of data on landslide movement, groundwater level, and precipitation gathered from the Kostanjek landslide monitoring system and nearby meteorological stations in Zagreb (Croatia). Because of complex relations between precipitations and groundwater levels, the process of landslide movement prediction is divided into two separate models: (1) model for prediction of groundwater levels from precipitation data and (2) model for prediction of landslide movements from groundwater level data. In a groundwater level prediction model, 75 parameters were used as predictors, calculated from precipitation and evapotranspiration data. In the landslide movement prediction model, 10 parameters calculated from groundwater level data were used as predictors. Model validation was performed through the prediction of groundwater levels and prediction of landslide movements for the periods from 10 to 90 days. The validation results show the capability of the model to predict the evolution of daily displacements, from predicted variations of groundwater levels, for the period up to 30 days. Practical contributions of the developed method include the possibility of automated predictions, updated and improved on a daily basis, which would be an important source of information for decisions related to crisis management in the case of risky landslide movements. 相似文献
7.
降雨条件下浅层滑坡稳定性探讨 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
降雨条件下浅层滑坡是一种常见、多发的地质灾害现象,为了解边坡稳定性随降雨入渗过程的变化情况,以Green-Ampt入渗模型为基础,并考虑了动水压力的作用,建立了降雨入渗条件下浅层滑坡的概念模型,分别推导了降雨前有、无地下水位条件下的边坡安全系数与降雨时间的关系表达式。从分析结果中可以看出,对于这两种情况下边坡稳定性发生突变的主要原因归结于：前者为在湿润锋与地下水位面接触的短时间内,滑带处的孔隙水压力迅速增高;后者为滑带在浸水饱和情况下,岩土体的强度迅速降低。在此基础上,根据降雨过程中边坡是否达到饱和,提出边坡饱和临界时间的概念,考虑了初始降雨强度小于土壤入渗能力的情况。这个时间可以作为一个参数指标用于浅层滑坡的预警。 相似文献
8.
库水和降雨直接导致水库滑坡地下水变动,是诱发滑坡的主要因素。已有研究大多是基于监测数据探讨库水与降雨对滑坡变形的影响,未能揭示水库滑坡地下水响应规律,地下水浸润线计算模型没有同时考虑降雨和库水的影响,且模型边界条件与水库滑坡实际情况差别较大。为了揭示大型水库滑坡地下水动态响应规律,需要构建更接近实际情况的地下水位浸润线计算模型。通过三峡水库石榴树包滑坡地下水动态监测,揭示了库水水位变化和降雨条件下滑坡地下水水位动态响应规律,其地下水渗流场近似层流,滑坡前缘和中部的地下水水位与库水位几乎同步,滑坡后部的地下水水位主要受降雨影响,日降雨30 mm会引发地下水水位明显变动。在周期性库水位变化和随机降雨耦合条件下,建立了滑坡地下水非稳定渗流微分方程,解算出水库滑坡地下水位浸润线计算模型,并采用实际监测结果进行了验证。应用计算模型分析了不同工况条件下的滑坡渗流场,并得出滑坡内距前缘水平距离145 m内,库水对地下水有影响;引发地下水变动的降雨和库水位变化阈值分别为0.03,0.1 m/d,且不同的条件组合下降雨和库水位对地下水水位影响存在一定差异。 相似文献
9.
基于Logistic回归的陕南秦巴山区降雨型滑坡预测方法 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
通过建立陕南秦巴山区降雨型滑坡灾害数据库,分析了不同降雨因子的雨强分布,计算了降水突发型滑坡灾害、降水滞后型滑坡灾害的雨强与滑坡发生概率的相关系数,采用Logistic回归方法确定不同时效降雨因子,得到陕南秦巴山区降雨型滑坡预测模型,并利用滑坡灾害实例,运用ROC曲线和kappa系数法对模型进行了验证。结果表明：滑坡前第m日降雨量Rdm(m=0,1,2)及综合雨量Rc四个降雨因子为诱发降雨型滑坡较为显著的因子。当降雨强度≥75 mm·h-1时,最易引起突发型滑坡;当连续降水达到2 d,且24小时雨量达到小雨或中雨时,应警惕滞后型滑坡灾害的发生。模型预测准确率达82.1%,ROC曲线的AUC值为0.836,kappa系数为0.616,验证结果显示该模型可靠。研究成果可作为陕南秦巴山区降雨型滑坡预报预警研究工作的重要参考。 相似文献
10.
降雨是诱发边坡失稳破坏的主要原因,本文以坡地水文模型为基础,结合无限边坡稳定计算模型,研究降雨条件下边坡启动的临界降雨条件。通过工程算例表明:降雨量与边坡体稳定系数成反比;滑坡启动的临界降雨量随边坡坡度的增大而减少;随边坡土体内摩擦角的增加而逐渐增加,此分析对降雨型滑坡的研究有借鉴性的意义。 相似文献
11.
Functioning and precipitation-displacement modelling of rainfall-induced deep-seated landslides subject to creep deformation 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
We propose an approach to study the hydro-mechanical behaviour and evolution of rainfall-induced deep-seated landslides subjected to creep deformation by combining signal processing and modelling. The method is applied to the Séchilienne landslide in the French Alps, where precipitation and displacement have been monitored for 20 years. Wavelet analysis is first applied on precipitation and recharge as inputs and then on displacement time-series decomposed into trend and detrended signals as outputs. Results show that the detrended displacement is better linked to the recharge signal than to the total precipitation signal. The infra-annual detrended displacement is generated by high precipitation events, whereas annual and multi-annual variations are rather linked to recharge variations and thus to groundwater processes. This leads to conceptualise the system into a two-layer aquifer constituted of a perched aquifer (reactive aquifer responsible of high-frequency displacements) and a deep aquifer (inertial aquifer responsible of low-frequency displacements). In a second step, a new lumped model (GLIDE) coupling groundwater and a creep deformation model is applied to simulate displacement on three extensometer stations. The application of the GLIDE model gives good performance, validating most of the preliminary functioning hypotheses. Our results show that groundwater fluctuations can explain the displacement periodic variations as well as the long-term creep exponential trend. In the case of deep-seated landslides, this displacement trend is interpreted as the consequence of the weakening of the rock mechanical properties due to repeated actions of the groundwater pressure. 相似文献
12.
Prototyping an experimental early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Indonesia using satellite remote sensing and geospatial datasets 总被引：10，自引：2，他引：8
Zonghu Liao Yang Hong Jun Wang Hiroshi Fukuoka Kyoji Sassa Dwikorita Karnawati Faisal Fathani 《Landslides》2010,7(3):317-324
An early warning system has been developed to predict rainfall-induced shallow landslides over Java Island, Indonesia. The
prototyped early warning system integrates three major components: (1) a susceptibility mapping and hotspot identification
component based on a land surface geospatial database (topographical information, maps of soil properties, and local landslide
inventory, etc.); (2) a satellite-based precipitation monitoring system () and a precipitation forecasting model (i.e., Weather Research Forecast); and (3) a physically based, rainfall-induced landslide
prediction model SLIDE. The system utilizes the modified physical model to calculate a factor of safety that accounts for
the contribution of rainfall infiltration and partial saturation to the shear strength of the soil in topographically complex
terrains. In use, the land-surface “where” information will be integrated with the “when” rainfall triggers by the landslide
prediction model to predict potential slope failures as a function of time and location. In this system, geomorphologic data
are primarily based on 30-m Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data, digital elevation
model (DEM), and 1-km soil maps. Precipitation forcing comes from both satellite-based, real-time National Aeronautics and
Space Administration (NASA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model forecasts.
The system’s prediction performance has been evaluated using a local landslide inventory, and results show that the system
successfully predicted landslides in correspondence to the time of occurrence of the real landslide events. Integration of
spatially distributed remote sensing precipitation products and in-situ datasets in this prototype system enables us to further
develop a regional, early warning tool in the future for predicting rainfall-induced landslides in Indonesia. 相似文献
13.
Modeling of layered infinite slope failure triggered by rainfall 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
The infinite slope is typically regarded as composed of a single-layered soil with a uniform property in various physical-based models used for modeling rainfall-induced shallow landslides. This study extends the physical-based model to consider the layered infinite slope to examine the importance of soil layer distribution for rainfall-induced shallow landslides. Hypothetical scenarios of infinite slope composed of soil layers with different thicknesses and parameters are employed to conduct this examination. The results show that pressure heads caused by rainfall infiltration are strongly related to soil layer distribution. This shows the significant influence of soil layer distribution in assessing infinite slope stability. Failure of a layered infinite slope does not necessarily occur at the impervious bottom of the hillslope soil, but may also occur at the interface between two soil layers. This result shows that a neglect of soil layer distribution could misestimate failure depth. Hence, soil layer distribution must be considered to reliably analyze infinite slope failure induced by rainfall. 相似文献
14.
提高降雨型滑坡危险性预警精度和空间辨识度具有重要意义.以江西宁都县1980—2001年156个降雨型滑坡为例,首先基于传统的EE-D（early effective rainfall-rainfall duration）阈值法计算不同降雨诱发滑坡的时间概率级别;然后以各级别临界降雨阈值曲线对应的时间概率为因变量,并以对应的前期有效降雨量（early effective rainfall,EE）和降雨历时（D）为自变量,采用逻辑回归拟合出上述因变量与自变量之间的非线性关系,得到降雨诱发滑坡的连续概率值;之后对比C5.0决策树和多层感知器的滑坡易发性预测性能;最后利用降雨诱发滑坡的连续概率值与易发性图相耦合以实现连续概率滑坡危险性预警.结果显示:（1）宁都降雨型滑坡连续概率值的逻辑回归方程为1/P=1+e4.062+0.747 4×D-0.079 44×EE,其拟合优度为0.983;（2）2002—2003年的20处用于连续概率阈值测试的降雨型滑坡大都落在连续概率值大于0.7的区域,只有4处落在小于0.7的区域;（3）C5.0决策树预测滑坡易发性的精度显著高于多层感知器;（4）近5年的4次降雨型滑坡的连续概率危险性值都在0.8以上,且高和极高预警区的面积较传统滑坡危险性分区更小.可见连续概率滑坡危险性预警法相较于传统危险性分区法具有更高的预警精度和空间辨识度,且通过叠加滑坡易发性图及其临界降雨阈值可开展实时滑坡危险性预警制图. 相似文献
15.
为揭示中、低纬度高寒山区降雨-径流的形成过程,指导水资源的合理开发利用,选择黑河上游红泥沟小流域为研究区,基于河道径流量及雨水和河水稳定同位素的观测数据,构建二元混合模型,计算了2013年7月23日及8月21日两次典型降雨-径流事件中事件水（降雨）和事件前水（流域前期储水）对河道径流的贡献及其动态变化.结果显示:两次降雨事件中事件前水的贡献比例分别为68.69%和54.46%;事件前水的贡献比例在涨水阶段减小,在退水阶段增大.结合河水电导率的观测结果,进一步分析了降雨-径流的形成过程:河道径流的形成主要受饱和区蓄满产流、河岸带地下径流和山坡地下径流3种产流机制控制;事件水主要源于蓄满产流,事件前水主要源于河岸带和山坡地下径流;事件初期和末期以河岸带地下水补给为主,涨水阶段后期和退水阶段前期转为以蓄满产流和山坡地下水补给为主,洪峰期间蓄满产流的贡献达到最大.两次事件的对比表明,事件前的湿度条件和降雨强度对降雨-径流的形成过程有着重要影响:前期越湿润,流域储水能力越弱,导水能力越强,事件水的贡献越大,河道径流对降雨的响应越迅速;降雨强度越大,蓄满产流及其中的事件水比例越高,河道径流中事件水的比例也越高. 相似文献
16.
Rainfall-induced landslides in Hulu Kelang area, Malaysia 总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3
Hulu Kelang is known as one of the most landslide-prone areas in Malaysia. The area has been constantly hit by landslide hazards since 1990s. This paper provides an insight into the mechanism of rainfall-induced landslide in the Hulu Kelang area. Rainfall patterns prior to the occurrences of five selected case studies were first analyzed. The results showed that daily rainfall information is insufficient for predicting landslides in the area. Rainfalls of longer durations, i.e., 3–30 days prior to the landslides should be incorporated into the prediction model. Numerical simulations on a selected case study demonstrated that both matric suction and factor of safety decreased steadily over time until they reached the lowest values on the day of landslide occurrence. Redistribution of infiltrated rainwater in the soil mass could be a reason for the slow response of failure mechanism to rainfall. Based on 21 rainfall-induced landslides that had occurred in the area, three rainfall thresholds were developed as attempts to predict the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslide. The rainfall intensity–duration threshold developed based on the local rainfall conditions provided a reasonably good prediction to the landslide occurrence. The cumulative 3- versus 30-day antecedent precipitation index threshold chart was capable of giving the most reliable prediction with the limiting threshold line for major landslide yielded a reliability of 97.6 %. 相似文献
17.
Wei Chao Li F. C. Dai Ying Qi Wei Ming Long Wang Hong Min Lee Min Lee 《Landslides》2016,13(5):1109-1123
Post-failure field investigation, instrumentation, monitoring, and numerical simulation were performed to give insights into the failure mechanism of a 13-h-delayed rainfall-induced landslide. A conceptual hydrological model was postulated based on the findings obtained from the investigation works. The results showed that subsurface flow was recharged by intense and prolonged rainfall through outcrops of fissured bedrock. The recharged water was mounded in the moderately weathered granite layer and caused an increase in hydraulic head. The groundwater seeped gradually upward into the overlying fill layer even after the rain has ceased, and eventually triggered the landslide when the water table was raised to a critical state. As most of the existing hydrologic-slope stability models were developed on the basis of soil-impermeable bedrock model, this could result in great discrepancies between the simulated results and the real hydrological responses of the slope. The findings from the present study highlighted the importance of considering subsurface flow and hydro-geological features in assessing the mechanism of rainfall-induced landslide. 相似文献
18.
陈崇希 《水文地质工程地质》2020,47(5):1-4
Dupuit（1863年）提出的模型是“圆岛状含水层稳定井流模型”,这个模型只有侧向湖海边界条件,而不涉及上边界降水入渗补给条件。因此,Dupuit模型只能在旱季用于地下水井流试验求取含水系统的参数,而不能够用于预测。文章发展Dupuit潜水井流模型,考虑地面均匀稳定入渗补给（蒸发排泄示为其负值）作用。以质量守衡原理为基础,假定渗流服从Darcy定律并满足Dupuit徦定,建立极坐标下的地下水流微分方程,再依边界条件建立相应的流量方程和水位方程。这些方程为具地面入渗补给条件下井流试验求取水文地质参数以及预测相应条件下地下水抽水的效果,提供了基础条件。讨论了引入Dupuit假定对本问题解析研究可以降维（略去z变量）带来好处的同时,在地下水分水岭附近及抽水井附近可能出现偏离Dupuit假定,建议在抽水试验求取含水层参数时,观测孔的部署要尽量回避这些区段。 相似文献
19.
Tsung-Ren Peng Chung-Ho Wang Tein-Chang Lai Frank Shu-Ken Ho 《Environmental Geology》2007,52(8):1617-1629
Over a 1-year period, 343 samples, including precipitation, creek, pond, and groundwater, were collected from June 2003 to
May 2004. Analyses were performed for stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope compositions. Selected samples were also analyzed
for tritium. The goal was to identify possible hydrologic factors contributing to a severe landslide in the Li-Shan area,
central Taiwan. The isotope characteristics indicate that groundwater from Fu-Shou-Shan farm located up-slope from the landslide
area is a major source for slope groundwater, in addition to precipitation. The groundwater is mainly recharged by pond water
at Fu-Shou-Shan farm. According to the calculation of a two-end member equation with δ
18O, the contribution of farm groundwater to slope groundwater is significantly higher than that of precipitation, up to a factor
of five. The estimated drainage efficiency of the existing system is only 23%. Draining off the slope groundwater in the up-slope
region to decrease farm groundwater flow into the slope area is a feasible strategy to effectively reduce the risk of landslide. 相似文献
20.
移民新区东坡滑坡发育于小吉尔格朗河东岸二级残留阶地,坡面中部,坡体平均坡度35°,均为小型土质滑坡。因滑坡剪出口位置较高,滑动后,多为快速滑动,极易成灾,对沙尕村移民新区构成较大威胁。通过研究发现,滑坡主要受地形地貌、地层岩性、地质构造等原生地质条件控制,受大气降水、地下水、地震、人类工程活动等外界条件影响,其中大气降水和地下水为滑坡成因的主要影响因素。结合滑坡成因及影响因素,提出抗滑桩板墙和挡土墙相结合并辅以排水措施的防治方案,对该地区的滑坡防治具有较好的指导意义。 相似文献