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1.
In this paper, liquefaction potential of soil is evaluated within a probabilistic framework based on the post-liquefaction cone penetration test (CPT) data using an evolutionary artificial intelligence technique, multi-gene genetic programming (MGGP). Based on the developed limit state function using MGGP, a relationship is given between probability of liquefaction (PL) and factor of safety against liquefaction using Bayesian theory. This Bayesian mapping function is further used to develop a PL-based design chart for evaluation of liquefaction potential of soil. Using an independent database of 200 cases, the efficacy of the present MGGP-based probabilistic method is compared with that of the available probabilistic methods based on artificial neural network (ANN) and statistical methods. The proposed method is found to be more efficient in terms of rate of successful prediction of liquefaction and non-liquefaction cases, in three different ranges of PL values compared to ANN and statistical methods. 相似文献
2.
Ji-Lei Hu Xiao-Wei Tang 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2015,9(3):200-217
The Bayesian network (BN) is a type of graphical network based on probabilistic inference that has been gradually applied to assessment of seismic liquefaction potential. However, how to construct a robust BN remains underexplored in this field. This paper aims to present an efficient hybrid approach combining domain knowledge and data to construct a BN that facilitates the integration of multiple factors and the quantification of uncertainties within a network model to assess seismic liquefaction. Initially, only using given domain knowledge, a naive network model can be constructed using interpretive structural modeling. Thereafter, some effective information about the naive model is provided to construct a robust model using structural learning of BN from historic data. Finally, the returning predictive results and the predictive results are compared to other methods including non-probabilistic and probabilistic models for seismic liquefaction using the metrics of the overall accuracy, the area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic, prediction, recall and F1 score. The methodology proposed in this paper achieved better performance, and we discussed the power and value of the proposed approach at the end of this paper, which suggest that BN is a good alternative tool for seismic liquefaction prediction. 相似文献
3.
Probabilistic and spatial liquefaction analysis using CPT data: a case study for Alameda County site
Soil liquefaction is one of the major concerns causing damage to the structures in saturated sand deposits during earthquakes. Simplified methods for the assessment of liquefaction potential rely on the limit states that are generally established with built-in conservatism and a great deal of subjectivity. Well-known SPT- and CPT-based methods are widely used in the design practice for this purpose due to their simplicity and reasonable predictive capability. However, these methods do not account for various sources of uncertainties explicitly. Moreover, evaluations are made only at the locations of test results and are generalized for the whole region, which may not give accurate results where spatial variation of soil properties is significant. The present study focuses on the probabilistic evaluation of liquefaction potential of Alameda County site, California, considering spatial variation of soil indices related to CPT soundings. A stochastic soil model is adopted for this purpose using random field theory and principles of geostatistics by developing 2D exponential correlation functions. It has been observed that the probability of liquefaction is significantly underestimated as much as 34 %, if the spatial dependence of soil indices is not considered. Further, the effect of spatial variation is more prominent in low-level earthquakes compared to the high-level earthquakes, showing a 41.5 % deviation for magnitude 8.1 and a 60.5 % deviation for magnitude 5.0 earthquake at a depth of 10 m. 相似文献
4.
The performance-based liquefaction potential analysis was carried out in the present study to estimate the liquefaction return
period for Bangalore, India, through a probabilistic approach. In this approach, the entire range of peak ground acceleration
(PGA) and earthquake magnitudes was used in the evaluation of liquefaction return period. The seismic hazard analysis for
the study area was done using probabilistic approach to evaluate the peak horizontal acceleration at bed rock level. Based
on the results of the multichannel analysis of surface wave, it was found that the study area belonged to site class D. The
PGA values for the study area were evaluated for site class D by considering the local site effects. The soil resistance for
the study area was characterized using the standard penetration test (SPT) values obtained from 450 boreholes. These SPT data
along with the PGA values obtained from the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis were used to evaluate the liquefaction return
period for the study area. The contour plot showing the spatial variation of factor of safety against liquefaction and the
corrected SPT values required for preventing liquefaction for a return period of 475 years at depths of 3 and 6 m are presented
in this paper. The entire process of liquefaction potential evaluation, starting from collection of earthquake data, identifying
the seismic sources, evaluation of seismic hazard and the assessment of liquefaction return period were carried out, and the
entire analysis was done based on the probabilistic approach. 相似文献
5.
饱和砂土地震液化判别的可拓聚类预测方法 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
基于可拓学的物元模型和聚类分析原理,提出了饱和砂土地震液化判别的可拓聚类方法。选取地震烈度、震中距、砂层埋置深度、地下水位、标贯击数、平均粒径、不均匀系数和动剪应力比等8个影响因素,作为饱和砂土地震液化的评价因子,构建了经典域物元和节域物元。应用物元理论和可拓集合中的关联函数,建立预测模型,通过聚类分析得到饱和砂土地震液化的判别结果。实例研究表明,该模型能客观地反映砂土的液化规律,可拓聚类预测方法应用于饱和砂土地震液化判别是有效可行的。 相似文献
6.
A genetic algorithm approach for assessing soil liquefaction potential based on reliability method 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Deterministic approaches are unable to account for the variations in soil’s strength properties, earthquake loads, as well
as source of errors in evaluations of liquefaction potential in sandy soils which make them questionable against other reliability
concepts. Furthermore, deterministic approaches are incapable of precisely relating the probability of liquefaction and the
factor of safety (FS). Therefore, the use of probabilistic approaches and especially, reliability analysis is considered since
a complementary solution is needed to reach better engineering decisions. In this study, Advanced First-Order Second-Moment
(AFOSM) technique associated with genetic algorithm (GA) and its corresponding sophisticated optimization techniques have
been used to calculate the reliability index and the probability of liquefaction. The use of GA provides a reliable mechanism
suitable for computer programming and fast convergence. A new relation is developed here, by which the liquefaction potential
can be directly calculated based on the estimated probability of liquefaction (P
L
), cyclic stress ratio (CSR) and normalized standard penetration test (SPT) blow counts while containing a mean error of less
than 10% from the observational data. The validity of the proposed concept is examined through comparison of the results obtained
by the new relation and those predicted by other investigators. A further advantage of the proposed relation is that it relates
P
L
and FS and hence it provides possibility of decision making based on the liquefaction risk and the use of deterministic approaches.
This could be beneficial to geotechnical engineers who use the common methods of FS for evaluation of liquefaction. As an
application, the city of Babolsar which is located on the southern coasts of Caspian Sea is investigated for liquefaction
potential. The investigation is based primarily on in situ tests in which the results of SPT are analysed. 相似文献
7.
Soil liquefaction as a transformation of granular material from solid to liquid state is a type of ground failure commonly associated with moderate to large earthquakes and refers to the loss of strength in saturated, cohesionless soils due to the build-up of pore water pressures and reduction of the effective stress during dynamic loading. In this paper, assessment and prediction of liquefaction potential of soils subjected to earthquake using two different artificial neural network models based on mechanical and geotechnical related parameters (model A) and earthquake related parameters (model B) have been proposed. In model A the depth, unit weight, SPT-N value, shear wave velocity, soil type and fine contents and in model B the depth, stress reduction factor, cyclic stress ratio, cyclic resistance ratio, pore pressure, total and effective vertical stress were considered as network inputs. Among the numerous tested models, the 6-4-4-2-1 structure correspond to model A and 7-5-4-6-1 for model B due to minimum network root mean square errors were selected as optimized network architecture models in this study. The performance of the network models were controlled approved and evaluated using several statistical criteria, regression analysis as well as detailed comparison with known accepted procedures. The results represented that the model A satisfied almost all the employed criteria and showed better performance than model B. The sensitivity analysis in this study showed that depth, shear wave velocity and SPT-N value for model A and cyclic resistance ratio, cyclic stress ratio and effective vertical stress for model B are the three most effective parameters on liquefaction potential analysis. Moreover, the calculated absolute error for model A represented better performance than model B. The reasonable agreement of network output in comparison with the results from previously accepted methods indicate satisfactory network performance for prediction of liquefaction potential analysis. 相似文献
8.
Liquefaction resistance of granular soils is commonly characterized by the cyclic resistance ratio (CRR) in the simplified shear stress procedure of liquefaction potential assessment. This parameter is commonly estimated by cyclic tests on reconstituted samples or empirical correlations between liquefied/non-liquefied case histories. The current study employs results of cyclic triaxial tests on reconstituted soil specimens and presents a predictive equation for cyclic resistance ratio (CRR) of clean and silty sands. The CRR equation is a function of relative density, effective mean confining pressure, non-plastic fines content, number of harmonic cycles for liquefaction onset, and some other basic soil properties. It is demonstrated that the developed relationship obtains reasonable accuracy in the prediction of laboratory-based CRR. Based on the developed CRR model, new relationships are then presented for the coefficient of effective overburden pressure (Kσ) and magnitude scaling factor (MSF), two important modification factors in the simplified shear stress procedure. These new modification factors are then compared with those recommended by previous researchers. Finally, the possible application of the proposed CRR model in field condition is shown for a specific case. This study provides a preliminary insight into the liquefaction resistance of silty sands prior to the complementary laboratory studies. 相似文献
9.
SPT-N-based methods have been adopted for liquefaction assessment of soils during earthquakes for decades. However, there has not been a consistent way of assessing the accuracy and applicability of these methods. The Chi-chi earthquake of 1999, which has been the most serious ground shaking in Taiwan within the century, caused extensive liquefactions in mid-west alluvial deposits of the island. This paper assesses the prediction accuracy of several SPT-N-based methods using liquefaction and non-liquefaction incidents observed during the earthquake. A sensitivity study on commonly adopted parameters shows that the SPT blow count and peak ground acceleration are most sensitive in computing liquefaction potential. By comparing the error in predicting liquefaction and non-liquefaction incidents, this study concludes that Tokimatsu and Yoshimi’s method is more accurate than the other methods. However, the differences between prediction errors of various methods are minimal, indicating all of the methods examined are applicable for the 1999 earthquake in Taiwan. 相似文献
10.
二维场地液化势预测的神经网络方法 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
基于人工神经网络,提出了场地液化势预测模型。场地液化势的空间数据结构特征可由不同参数的自回归神经网络（GRNN）来模拟。该预测模型的一个重要参数spread可用地质统计学（Kriging）方法中的交叉验证技术来确定。研究表明,在最优spread参数条件下GRNN能够较好地映射场地液化势数据结构特征。用GRNN模型预测结果与经典的Kriging估计方法所得到的结果十分吻合。GRNN模型可以用于二维空间数据的预测及基于GIS决策系统。 相似文献
11.
12.
Application of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system for prediction of soil liquefaction 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
The determination of liquefaction potential of soils induced by earthquake is a major concern and an essential criterion in the design process of the civil engineering structures. A purely empirical interpretation of the filed case histories relating to liquefaction potential is often not well constrained due to the complication associated with this problem. In this study, an integrated fuzzy neural network model, called Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), is developed for the assessment of liquefaction potential. The model is trained with large databases of liquefaction case histories. Nine parameters such as earthquake magnitude, the water table, the total vertical stress, the effective vertical stress, the depth, the peak acceleration at the ground surface, the cyclic stress ratio, the mean grain size, and the measured cone penetration test tip resistance were used as input parameters. The results revealed that the ANFIS model is a fairly promising approach for the prediction of the soil liquefaction potential and capable of representing the complex relationship between seismic properties of soils and their liquefaction potential. 相似文献
13.
Strain energy concept has been employed by the researchers for the assessment of liquefaction phenomenon which is a disastrous type of earthquake-induced failure in saturated soils. The efficiency and predictability conditions of strain energy concept for liquefaction potential assessment are investigated herein using effective stress numerical analyses. Several earthquake ground motions were introduced to the base of a calibrated numerical model using an advanced fully coupled constitutive model. Results of the numerical analyses indicate that earthquake-induced excess pore pressure is more rigorously proportional to strain energy compared with the other examined intensity measures. Subsequently, a simple relationship was derived using the results of dynamic analyses to predict cumulative strain energy density in terms of magnitude, source to site distance, and effective overburden pressure. This relationship, which tries to guarantee the predictability condition of strain energy demand, has demonstrated a successful capability in discrimination between the liquefied and non-liquefied case histories recorded after several well-known earthquakes. This study has provided a practical linkage between numerical analysis and field observations. Finally, it is concluded that although strain energy approach possesses a great conceptual efficiency in liquefaction potential assessment, its precise prediction in actual field conditions involves some difficulties. 相似文献
14.
This paper proposes a systematic framework for real-time assessment of spatial liquefaction hazard of port areas considering local seismic response characteristics based on a geographic information system (GIS) platform. The framework is integrated and embedded with sequential, interrelated subprocedures and a database for liquefaction-induced damage evaluation that standardizes and both individually and collectively quantifies analytical results. To integrate the current in situ condition of a selected port area, the framework functions as a spatial database system for geotechnical and structural data and as a recipient of automatic transmission of seismic monitoring data. The geotechnical profile correlated with liquefaction potential is compiled into a geotechnical spatial grid built by geostatistical methods. Linked with the geotechnical spatial grid, the processing of site-specific responses is automatically interpreted from previously derived correlations between rock acceleration and maximum acceleration of each soil layer. As a result, the liquefaction severity is determined based on a combined geotechnical spatial grid with seismic load correlation in real-time according to a simplified procedure, allowing calculation of the liquefaction potential index (LPI). To demonstrate practical applications of the framework in estimating the liquefaction hazard in real-time, liquefaction-hazard maps were visualized for two earthquake scenarios, verifying the applicability of the proposed framework. 相似文献
15.
A seismic hazard analysis was conducted in Laoag City, Northern Philippines to determine the design ground motion for liquefaction potential assessment of the area. Because the hazard analysis was done within the framework of liquefaction potential assessment, only those earthquakes with magnitude–distance combinations that are capable of generating liquefaction were considered in the study. Both probabilistic and deterministic approaches were used in the analysis. From the results of the probabilistic analysis, seismic hazard curves were generated from which the ground motion with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50years was obtained. This was then modified in consideration of the soft soil condition in the study area. Deaggregation was performed to determine the most likely earthquake to generate the said level of ground shaking. 相似文献
16.
In this paper, the dynamic characteristics of a liquefiable silt substratum within the foundation soil of a reservoir dam
in the Tianjin area are investigated by means of standard penetration resistance and dynamic triaxial tests. Properties including
N-values, factors influencing liquefaction as a cyclic stress, consolidation pressure, structure, and particle composition
are considered in this research. Parameters used to evaluate liquefaction potential are obtained through testing. A comprehensive
program based on the Chinese code and standard for geological investigation (Ministry of Water Resources of China 1999a; Ministry of Construction of China 2001a) and Seed’s simplified method (Seed and Idriss 1971; in J Geotech Eng Div ASCE 109(3): 458–482, 1983) was carried out to evaluate the potential of liquefaction within the reservoir dam foundation. Liquefaction potentials were
also assessed in response to the Chinese codes for seismic design (Hydropower Research Institute of China 2000; Ministry of Construction of China 2001b). The evaluation shows that saturated surface silt in the reservoir dam foundations is vulnerable to liquefaction at seismic
intensities of VII and above. The two assessment methods are in good agreement with each other, and the research results can
provide useful information for the safe construction and normal operation of the reservoir. 相似文献
17.
Least square support vector machine and relevance vector machine for evaluating seismic liquefaction potential using SPT 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
Pijush Samui 《Natural Hazards》2011,59(2):811-822
The determination of liquefaction potential of soil is an imperative task in earthquake geotechnical engineering. The current
research aims at proposing least square support vector machine (LSSVM) and relevance vector machine (RVM) as novel classification
techniques for the determination of liquefaction potential of soil from actual standard penetration test (SPT) data. The LSSVM
is a statistical learning method that has a self-contained basis of statistical learning theory and excellent learning performance.
RVM is based on a Bayesian formulation. It can generalize well and provide inferences at low computational cost. Both models
give probabilistic output. A comparative study has been also done between developed two models and artificial neural network
model. The study shows that RVM is the best model for the prediction of liquefaction potential of soil is based on SPT data. 相似文献
18.
There have been significant advances in the application of critical state,CS,in liquefaction potential assessment.This was done by comparing state parameter,j with estimated characteristic cyclic stress ratio,CSR due to an earthquake.A cyclic resistance ratio,CRR curve,which can be determined from cyclic liquefaction tests,separates historical liquefied and non-liquefied data points(j,CSR).On the other hand,the concepts of equivalent granular state parameter,j*,which was developed for sands with fines,can be used in lieu j to provide a unifying framework for characterizing the undrained response of sands with non/low plasticity fines,irrespective of fines content(fc).The present work combines these two propositions,and by merely substituting j*for j into the aforementioned CS approach to capture the influence of fc.A series of static and cyclic triaxial tests were conducted,separately and independently of the concept of j*,for sand with up to fc of 30%.The clean sand was collected from Sabarmati river belt at Ahmedabad city in India which was severely affected during the Bhuj earthquake,2001.The experimental data gave a single relation for CRR and j*which was then used to assess liquefaction potential for a SPT based case study,where fc varies along the depth.The prediction matched with the field observation. 相似文献
19.
S. Feyza Cinicioglu Ilknur Bozbey Sadik Oztoprak M. Kubilay Kelesoglu 《Engineering Geology》2007,94(3-4):145-165
This paper presents an integrated, earthquake-damage assessment that standardizes and quantifies methods of analysis. The proposed methodology evaluates all damage-causing phenomena, both individually and in combination. This approach inherently relates to soil-structure interactions by quantifying site-specific geotechnical and structural properties. Specifically considered is ground shaking, the primary damage-causing phenomenon. Also evaluated are the collateral effects of liquefaction, degradation of seismic-bearing capacity and slope failure (landslides). The methodology incorporates a literature-derived probabilistic assessment of damage-causation, and is interpreted and presented as single numbers deemed “Damage Grades.” These damage grades integrate the initial probabilistic evaluation with professional experience and judgment in order to determine potential damage to a particular structure at a particular location. This methodology was applied, with success, to two different locations in Istanbul, Turkey. It should be tested by engineering geologists and geotechnical engineers, for it may be applicable to earthquake-prone areas elsewhere. 相似文献
20.
以标贯试验为依据的砂土液化确定性及概率判别法 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
核电厂址非基岩场地的地基液化问题是核电厂选址的关键问题,亟需建立核电厂址地基液化判别方法。回顾了以标贯试验和地表峰值加速度为依据的砂土液化判别方法的演化历史,依据Idriss-Boulanger确定液化临界曲线的基本方法,提出了确定液化临界曲线的基本原则,分别依据美国液化数据库、中国抗震规范液化判别式所用的液化数据及综合两者的液化数据资料,给出了相应的液化临界曲线,验证了液化临界曲线的位置对不同的细粒含量、有效上覆压力、现场试验方法的液化数据的合理性,分析了测量或估计土层循环应力比和修正标贯击数各种因素的不确定性对液化临界曲线的敏感性,结果表明：所提的液化临界曲线不易受各种因素的影响。利用Monte Carlo模拟、加权最大似然法和加权经验概率法,给出了液化临界曲线的名义抗液化安全系数与液化概率的经验关系式及概率等值线,并对核电厂Ⅰ类、Ⅱ类和Ⅲ类抗震物项地基,给出了相应的液化临界曲线。 相似文献