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1.
Integrated risk assessment of multi-hazards in China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Maps of population exposure, vulnerability and risk to natural hazards are useful tools for designing and implementing disaster risk mitigation programs in China. The ranking of provinces by relative risk to natural hazards would provide a metric for prioritizing risk management strategies. Using provinces as our study unit, from the perspectives of hazard exposure, susceptibility, coping capacity and adaptive capacity, this study first constructed China’s disaster risk index for five types of major natural hazards: earthquakes, floods, droughts, low temperatures/snow and gale/hail. Then, the relative risk level at the provincial scale in China was assessed. Finally, the hotspots with the highest hazard exposure, vulnerability and risk were identified. The results showed that high exposure was a significant risk driver in China, whereas high vulnerability, especially social vulnerability, amplified the risk levels. Similar to the population exposure to disasters, the relative risk levels in the southwestern, central and northeastern regions of China were significantly higher than those in the eastern, northern and western regions. The high-risk regions or hotspots of multi-hazards were concentrated in southern China (less-developed regions), while the low-risk regions were mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas (well-developed regions). Furthermore, a nonlinear relationship existed between the disaster risk level and poverty incidence as well as per capita GDP, demonstrating that disaster losses in middle-income areas are likely to increase if economic policies are not modified to account for the rising disaster risk. These findings further indicated that research on disaster risk should focus not only on hazards and exposure but also on the vulnerability to natural disasters. Thus, reducing vulnerability and population exposure to natural hazards would be an effective measure in mitigating the disaster risk at hotspots in China. 相似文献
2.
The increase in the frequency and magnitude of disasters triggered by earthquakes in different regions of the Earth is a major challenge to contemporary societies. The awareness that disasters and risk are processes structured on spatial?Ctemporal interactions maintained at the social-ecological system between the natural hazards and the vulnerabilities of socioeconomic, political and physical nature becomes utterly important in the increase of social systems?? resilience. Thus, the assessment of social vulnerability plays a decisive role in understanding the factors that distinguishes individuals, households and communities, in terms of their ability to anticipate, cope with, resist to and recover from the impact of disasters triggered by natural hazards. This article presents a geographic information system (GIS)-based approach model to assess the social vulnerability to seismic risk using multicriteria analysis (MCA) techniques, in a group decision-making process. The methodology applied to the municipality of Vila Franca do Campo (S?o Miguel Island, Azores, Portugal) identified moderate social vulnerability values at the neighbourhood level and higher social vulnerability values for the built environment and demographic characteristics of the social groups. The social vulnerability patterns make a clear distinction between the older/historical urban cores and the new urban areas. In the first case, the presence of ancient buildings constructed with materials of low resistance to earthquakes coupled with a higher population density and the traits of demographic and socioeconomic frailties of the social groups, results in higher vulnerability values. This pattern is common in the historic centre of S. Miguel district, Ribeira das Taínhas, northern areas of água de Alto and western and eastern neighbourhoods of Ponta Gar?a. The new urban areas, mainly found in S. Pedro, central areas of água de Alto, S. Miguel and Ponta Gar?a districts, have lower values of social vulnerability due to changes in the built, demographic and socioeconomic environments. Results recommend the integration of social vulnerability indexes into seismic risk mitigation policies and emergency management planning. 相似文献
3.
Analysis of social vulnerability to hazards in China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
To improve natural disaster management, it is important to recognize the variability of the vulnerable populations exposed to hazards and to develop location-based emergency plans accordingly. This paper presents a mathematical model to establish a model of social vulnerability index (SoVI), which includes 12 social variables, and the regional social vulnerability to natural hazards was formulated by them. Taking a city as statistical unit, the variability of vulnerability to natural hazards was explored among the 323 cities based on the SoVI. The results indicate that vulnerability is a location-based regional phenomenon, with the most vulnerable cities being located in the southwest of China and the eastern areas being generally less vulnerable. The results will be helpful for policy makers to formulate disaster management plans, which can be beneficial for people in more vulnerable areas who are responding to, coping with, and recovering from natural disasters. 相似文献
4.
Heat wave risk assessment and mapping in urban areas: case study for a midsized Central European city,Novi Sad (Serbia) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Stevan Savić Vladimir Marković Ivan Šećerov Dragoslav Pavić Daniela Arsenović Dragan Milošević Dragan Dolinaj Imre Nagy Milana Pantelić 《Natural Hazards》2018,91(3):891-911
Risk assessment and mapping methodologies for heat waves as frequently occurring hazards in central and southeastern Europe were applied in this study, and the impact of heat waves on the mortality of urban populations was determined as part of the assessment. The methodology for conducting the heat wave risk assessment is based on European Commission’s Guidelines for Risk Assessment and Mapping. The Novi Sad (Serbia) urban area was studied during summer 2015, which was one of the hottest summers in the last few decades. In situ air temperature measurements from urban stations and mortality of urban populations were used. Nocturnal urban heat island (UHI) intensity values between the various built-up zones and natural surrounding areas were used for the hazard level calculation. Temperature data from 9 p.m. to 5 a.m. were used because during the night, the UHI intensity reached its maximum values. The average daily number of deaths by LCZs was used to define the impact level of the vulnerability index. Calculations for both hazard levels were completed during two intensive heat waves (in July and August 2015) when it was expected that there may be a high level of risk. The results and maps show that the urban area is complex, and the heat wave risk on the population is not uniform. The most densely built-up areas (LCZs 2, 5 and 6) have very high or high risk values that are influenced by a higher rate of mortality. The obtained results and maps can be used by local authorities to prevent and mitigate climate-related hazards, for medical institutions as well as urban planners and for ancillary local, regional or national services. According to these results, the local authorities could define hot spots where they can place medical and rescue teams and install points with water supplies, etc. 相似文献
5.
Identifying and analyzing the urban–rural differences of social vulnerability to natural hazards is imperative to ensure that urbanization develops in a way that lessens the impacts of disasters and generate building resilient livelihoods in China. Using data from the 2000 and 2010 population censuses, this study conducted an assessment of the social vulnerability index (SVI) by applying the projection pursuit cluster model. The temporal and spatial changes of social vulnerability in urban and rural areas were then examined during China’s rapid urbanization period. An index of urban–rural differences in social vulnerability (SVID) was derived, and the global and local Moran’s I of the SVID were calculated to assess the spatial variation and association between the urban and rural SVI. In order to fully determine the impacts of urbanization in relation to social vulnerability, a spatial autoregressive model and Bivariate Moran’s I between urbanization and SVI were both calculated. The urban and rural SVI both displayed a steadily decreasing trend from 2000 to 2010, although the urban SVI was always larger than the rural SVI in the same year. In 17.5% of the prefectures, the rural SVI was larger than the urban SVI in 2000, but was smaller than the urban SVI in 2010. About 12.6% of the urban areas in the prefectures became less vulnerable than rural areas over the study period, while in more than 51.73% of the prefectures the urban–rural SVI gap decreased over the same period. The SVID values in all prefectures had a significantly positive spatial autocorrelation and spatial clusters were apparent. Over time, social vulnerability to natural hazards at the prefecture-level displayed a gathering–scattering pattern across China. Though a regional variation of social vulnerability developed during China’s rapid urbanization, the overall trend was for a steady reduction in social vulnerability in both urban and rural areas.
相似文献6.
In many megacities of the global south, the combination of rapid population growth and high pressure on space for housing,
results in urban growth taking place in areas particularly prone to natural hazards. Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, is
no exception to this rule. Many marginal settlements or slums are located on low-lying land at high risk of flooding. This
paper analyzes the vulnerability of slum dwellers in Dhaka and highlights the major factors behind their sensitivity to floods
and their ability to adapt to the related changes. The empirical findings presented are based on a questionnaire survey covering
625 households in five slum areas of Dhaka. Our data suggests that social capital plays an important role with regard to the
ability of slum dwellers to find ways to live with the floods. Regardless of how strongly people are affected, mutual help
and support are dominant features in times of crises. While poorly educated and resourced slum dwellers are highly vulnerable
to external shocks, they still show a surprising capacity to cope with natural calamities. 相似文献
7.
China has experienced considerable migration from inland to coastal areas since the reforms of 1978, with migrants becoming
an important population in many coastal cities. Compared with non-migrants (long-term residents), migrant vulnerability to
typhoons is considered high due to limited access to job opportunities, social security, information, and other resources;
however, there is no research on vulnerability of this population sector to natural hazards. This initial study analysed the
perceptions and personal experiences of migrants living in Shanghai of typhoon hazards. During May 2010, empirical data were
collected using an online questionnaire and face–face interviews. Response data indicated that risk knowledge of migrants
was significantly lower than among non- migrants; differing risk perceptions between the groups were consistent with levels
of personal typhoon experience; statistically significant differences in hazard knowledge within the sample also related to
education and occupation; a variety of strategies to cope with typhoon hazards was being applied by residential committees;
and that migrants were not generally recognised as a vulnerable group requiring special consideration in hazard risk management.
To reduce the vulnerability of migrants to typhoons, we recommend expanding the range of accessible communication technologies
distributing warning information; organising more educational and training programmes, at government and corporate level,
to increase community awareness of natural hazards; encouraging local residential committees to promote social networks and
engagement for migrants; and providing corporate incentives to develop insurances specifically for migrant needs. Further
research is necessary to assess the differences in vulnerability between different types of migrants. 相似文献
8.
Paul William Kojo Yankson Alex Barimah Owusu George Owusu John Boakye-Danquah Jacob Doku Tetteh 《Natural Hazards》2017,85(2):691-707
In this paper, the extent to which the potentially transit-dependent portion of the population is vulnerable to the effects of a hurricane is estimated. The vulnerability of an area is defined as a composite measure of the proportion of disadvantaged persons, distance to transit, and flooding potential of people within an area. Unlike past studies which have focused on the vulnerability of the population in relatively large geographic areas, this study estimates the vulnerability of the population in 30 m × 30 m areas as defined in the National Land Cover Database. Population estimates from the national census at block level are disaggregated to the 30 m × 30 m units using a modified dasymetric mapping method in ArcGIS. The modified mapping method assigns population to each small areal unit using weights estimated by regressing the area of each land use in a census block against the population in that block. The coefficients in the regression analysis are “weights” associating population with each land use, and are used to distribute the population in each census block to the small geographic units based on their land use. In a case study of New Orleans, the results show that some areas are not well served by the existing transit pickup locations, as evidenced by their high vulnerability scores. Reassignment of pickup point locations to cover higher vulnerability score areas was investigated using integer linear programming. The results show that the optimally located pickup points serve areas with a larger average vulnerability score than the current pickup points in the study area. The method appears to be helpful in identifying vulnerable areas that, subsequently, could receive improved hurricane evacuation service in the future. 相似文献
9.
Natural disasters can neither be predicted nor prevented. Urban areas with a high population density coupled with the construction
of man-made structures are subjected to greater levels of risk to life and property in the event of natural hazards. One of
the major and densely populated urban areas in the east coast of India is the city of Chennai (Madras), which was severely
affected by the 2004 Tsunami, and mitigation efforts were severely dampened due to the non-availability of data on the vulnerability
on the Chennai coast to tsunami hazard. Chennai is prone to coastal hazards and hence has hazard maps on its earth-quake prone
areas, cyclone prone areas and flood prone areas but no information on areas vulnerable to tsunamis. Hence, mapping has to
be done of the areas where the tsunami of December 2004 had directly hit and flooded the coastal areas in Chennai in order
to develop tsunami vulnerability map for coastal Chennai. The objective of this study is to develop a GIS-based tsunami vulnerability
map for Chennai by using a numerical model of tsunami propagation together with documented observations and field measurements
of the evidence left behind by the tsunami in December 2004. World-renowned and the second-longest tourist beach in the world
“Marina” present in this region witnessed maximum death toll due to its flat topography, resulting in an inundation of about
300 m landward with high flow velocity of the order of 2 m/s. 相似文献
10.
Tiodora Hadumaon Siagian Purhadi Purhadi Suhartono Suhartono Hamonangan Ritonga 《Natural Hazards》2014,70(2):1603-1617
Indonesia is located in the Pacific Ring of Fire and situated at the joining point of four major world tectonic plates. Regions of Indonesia are highly prone to various natural hazards such as earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions. Some recent major natural hazard events are the 2004 tsunami in Aceh and Nias and the 2010 Mount Merapi volcanic eruptions in Central Java. In parallel with advancement in knowledge of the existing hazards, the importance of social aspects of vulnerability in mitigating natural hazards has been acknowledged by the Indonesian government. However, to date, there is no institutionalized effort for assessing social vulnerability to natural hazards that would cover all the districts of Indonesia. Accordingly, no comprehensive profile of social vulnerability is available as basis information for developing strategies to prevent larger risk and losses and reduce vulnerability of communities in Indonesia. Only a few studies have been conducted in Indonesia on this field. This study attempts to fill this gap by quantifying the social vulnerability of Indonesian districts to natural hazards, determining its driving factors and mapping its variations. The social vulnerability index (SoVI) approach is utilized in this study. Three main driving factors affecting social vulnerability in Indonesia are found: ‘socioeconomic status and infrastructure,’ ‘gender, age and population growth’ and ‘family structure.’ The combination of SoVI with thematic map utilizing ArcView GIS can be used to identify districts with relative high social vulnerability level. The results can support the prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery programs of the impacts of natural hazards in Indonesia. 相似文献
11.
Characterizing the spatial distribution of typical natural disaster vulnerability in China from 2010 to 2017 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Wang Qian Zhang Qi-peng Liu Yang-yang Tong Lin-jing Zhang Yan-zhen Li Xiao-yu Li Jian-long 《Natural Hazards》2020,100(1):3-15
Natural disaster vulnerability can intuitively reflect the susceptibility of an area to environmental changes. Better understanding the spatial distribution of natural disaster vulnerability is a critical process for taking effective adaptation and management. Although significant achievements have been made in disaster vulnerability, few studies are known about natural disaster vulnerability at the national scale, especially from the typical natural disaster events in China. In this study, with normalizing selected indicators and calculating vulnerability index, we analyzed the spatial distribution of natural disasters vulnerability during 2010–2017 using the geospatial techniques. The results showed that natural disaster vulnerability has certain spatial differences, but different natural disaster can occur in the same area during the study period. Drought disaster can occur in all regions of China, especially in Inner Mongolia. Flood disaster is mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River Basin. The wind and storm disaster is chiefly in the northern regions in China. The freezing disaster is widely distributed in China. Furthermore, the regions with low vulnerability were primarily distributed in the eastern coastal region, indicating that the rapid development of economy and technology can resist or mitigate natural disaster to a certain extent. This study offers a solution to study natural disasters and provides scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation actions.
相似文献12.
基于GIS重庆岩溶地区生态环境脆弱度评价 总被引：13，自引：3，他引：10
重庆岩溶区属典型的生态环境脆弱区,宜耕地资源不足,土地退化严重,承受自然灾害能力低,使岩溶地区的社会经济发展和生态环境的协调性差,可持续发展能力弱。本文以重庆市岩溶地区为例,选择碳酸盐岩出露面积、山地面积、旱坡耕地面积、石漠化程度(包括轻度、中度和高度)、森林覆盖率、水土流失面积、土壤侵蚀模数、滑坡体积密度、垦殖指数、人均耕地面积、农业人口密度等13项生态环境脆弱度影响因子作为评价指标,利用层次分析法赋予指标权重,然后构建模糊数学模型对岩溶地区生态环境脆弱度进行评价研究,基于GIS技术对评价结果进行等级划分。结果表明: 重庆25个岩溶区县中潜在脆弱区县3个,轻度脆弱区县10个,中度脆弱区县6个,重度脆弱区县6个。 相似文献
13.
Ratiranjan Jena Biswajeet Pradhan Ghassan Beydoun Nizamuddin Ardiansyah Hizir Sofyan Muzailin Affan 《地学前缘(英文版)》2020,(2):613-634
Catastrophic natural hazards,such as earthquake,pose serious threats to properties and human lives in urban areas.Therefore,earthquake risk assessment(ERA)is indispensable in disaster management.ERA is an integration of the extent of probability and vulnerability of assets.This study develops an integrated model by using the artificial neural network–analytic hierarchy process(ANN–AHP)model for constructing the ERA map.The aim of the study is to quantify urban population risk that may be caused by impending earthquakes.The model is applied to the city of Banda Aceh in Indonesia,a seismically active zone of Aceh province frequently affected by devastating earthquakes.ANN is used for probability mapping,whereas AHP is used to assess urban vulnerability after the hazard map is created with the aid of earthquake intensity variation thematic layering.The risk map is subsequently created by combining the probability,hazard,and vulnerability maps.Then,the risk levels of various zones are obtained.The validation process reveals that the proposed model can map the earthquake probability based on historical events with an accuracy of 84%.Furthermore,results show that the central and southeastern regions of the city have moderate to very high risk classifications,whereas the other parts of the city fall under low to very low earthquake risk classifications.The findings of this research are useful for government agencies and decision makers,particularly in estimating risk dimensions in urban areas and for the future studies to project the preparedness strategies for Banda Aceh. 相似文献
14.
J. Zeng Z. Y. Zhu J. L. Zhang T. P. Ouyang S. F. Qiu Y. Zou T. Zeng 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,65(1):173-182
Social vulnerability assessment of natural hazards aims to identify vulnerable populations and provide decision makers with
scientific basis for their disaster prevention and mitigation decisions. A new method based on remote sensing is presented
here to establish a model of social vulnerability for county-scale regions that lack of relative data. To calculate population
density, which is the most important indicator in social vulnerability assessment, first, a statistical model is established
to estimate the population on village level. Then a new concept defined as “population density based on land use” is created
to replace the arithmetic population density. The former has taken the dynamic human distribution related to land use into
account; thus, it can map the population distribution more realistically. The other two indicators are age structure and distance
to hospital. The application of this method to the Luogang District of Guangzhou, South China demonstrated its capability
of providing high spatial resolution and reasonable social vulnerability for social vulnerability assessment of natural hazards. 相似文献
15.
Assessment of social vulnerability has been recognized as a critical step to understand natural hazard risks and to enhance effective response capabilities. Although significant achievements have been made in social vulnerability researches, little is know about the comprehensive profile of regional social vulnerability in China. In this study, the social vulnerability to natural hazards was firstly divided into socioeconomic and built environmental vulnerability. Then, using factor analysis, we identified the dominant factors that influence the provincial social vulnerability in China to natural hazards based on the socioeconomic and built environmental variables in 2000 and 2010 and explored the spatial patterns of social vulnerability. The results indicated that the provincial social vulnerability in China showed significant regional differences. The social vulnerability in the southeastern and eastern regions of China was greater than its northern and central parts over the past decade. Economic status, rural (proportion of agricultural population and percentage of workers employed in primary industries), urbanization, and age structure (children) were the dominant driving forces of variations in provincial socioeconomic vulnerability in two studied years, while lifelines and housing age could explain most of changes in built environmental vulnerability in 2000 and 2010. There were no statistically significant correlations between social vulnerability and disaster losses (p > 0.05), indicating the impact of disasters was also related to the intensity of hazards and exposure. Disaster relief funds allocated to each province of China depended more on its disaster severity than the regional integrated social vulnerability over the past decade. These findings would provide a scientific base for the policy making and implementation of disaster prevention and mitigation in China. 相似文献
16.
Iuliana Arma? 《Natural Hazards》2012,63(2):1129-1156
The expansive infrastructure, along with the high population density, makes cities highly vulnerable to the severe impacts of natural hazards. In the context of an explosive increase in value of the damage caused by natural disasters, the need for evaluating and visualizing the vulnerability of urban areas becomes a necessity in helping practitioners and stakeholders in their decision-making processes. The paper presented is a piece of exploratory research. The overall aim is to develop a spatial vulnerability approach to address earthquake risk, using a semi-quantitative model. The model uses the analytical framework of a spatial GIS-based multi-criteria analysis. For this approach, we have chosen Bucharest, the capital city of Romania, based on its high vulnerability to earthquakes due to a rapid urban growth and the advanced state of decay of the buildings (most of the building stock were built between 1940 and 1977). The spatial result reveals a circular pattern, pinpointing as hot spots the Bucharest historic centre (located on a meadow and river terrace, and with aged building stock) and peripheral areas (isolated from the emergency centers and defined by precarious social and economic conditions). In a sustainable development perspective, the example of Bucharest shows how spatial patterns shape the ??vulnerability profile?? of the city, based on which decision makers could develop proper prediction and mitigation strategies and enhance the resilience of cities against the risks resulting from the earthquake hazard. 相似文献
17.
三峡库区地质灾害易损性模糊综合评价 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
地质灾害是灾害危险性对承灾体易损性综合作用的结果,减灾应从减少地质灾害的发生频率和降低其易损性入手,限于目前的科学水平,人们难以改变地质灾害的发生过程,那么降低地质灾害易损性就成为减灾的重要措施,因此进行灾害易损性评价就显得尤为重要。本文以三峡库区为研究区,选取人口密度、国内生产总值密度等指标,运用模糊综合评判对其进行了定量评估。由于各指标因子在地质灾害易损性中的作用具有模糊性,因此运用模糊模型进行评价具有一定的意义。将库区地质灾害易损性程度划分为4个等级,研究结果表明,三峡库区地质灾害易损性程度总体较高。易损度较高的地区应强化减灾意识、调整人口结构以及加大防灾投入,以降低本地区的地质灾害易损性。 相似文献
18.
Blake Byron Walker Cameron Taylor-Noonan Alan Tabbernor T’Brenn McKinnon Harsimran Bal Dan Bradley Nadine Schuurman John J. Clague 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(2):1209-1222
Researchers have recently examined the geographic variability of the vulnerability of populations to earthquakes. These studies focus mainly on the complex modelling of geophysical processes or identification of socio-economically disadvantaged populations. However, no studies to date have integrated different components of vulnerability with metrics of travel distance to hospitals and trauma centres (systemic vulnerability). We argue that this previously unaccounted component is an important conceptual and practical aspect of earthquake vulnerability. Accordingly, this paper presents a multi-criteria model for combining physical, social, and systemic components, moving towards a more comprehensive assessment of vulnerability. An analytic hierarchy process is used to produce a place-specific index of social vulnerability, which we combine with soil liquefaction and amplification index and a road network model for access to hospitals and trauma services. Using a geographic information system, we implemented this model for the Greater Victoria region (483 km2, 2011 population: 345,000) in British Columbia, Canada. Clustering of total vulnerability was found in outlying areas, highlighting the importance of access to trauma centres. We conclude by identifying challenges in measuring earthquake vulnerability and advocate integration of systemic vulnerability components in natural hazards research. 相似文献
19.
Karst aquifers represent one of the main sources of water supply in Serbia. Wide distributions of karstic areas, abundant
reserves, and excellent quality of karst groundwater have been the reasons for its extensive use in water supply systems throughout
the country. In Serbia, 70 karstic sources have been tapped for centralized water supply, with the assessed minimal capacity
exceeding 4.5 m3/s. Most of the large cities of Eastern and Western Serbia currently use karst groundwater for water supply; however, due
to unstable flow regime when only natural springflow is tapped, numerous problems arise during the recession period (summer–autumn).
During the last two decades, after favorable conditions had been confirmed through hydrogeological survey and feasibility
studies, several newly constructed systems for artificial control of karst aquifers (mostly in Eastern Serbia) resulted in
significantly improved water supply. 相似文献
20.
Arshavir Avagyan Hasmik Manandyan Aleksandr Arakelyan Artak Piloyan 《Natural Hazards》2018,92(1):283-309
This paper presents the results of a research aiming natural and technological hazard, and risk assessment and mapping in Web-based holistic geographic environment, and the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 in Armenia. A common spatial multi-criteria evaluation method was used for natural and technological hazard, risk and population vulnerability assessments. The virtual geographic environment developed by the authors during the previous period of investigations was upgraded and used for the implementation of this research. It involves the following components: 1. geodatabase, 2. modeling and simulation, 3. interface for digital mapping, 4. metadata, 5. Web–based network service for collaboration. Moreover, the country specific natural and technological hazard, risk and population vulnerability assessment methods were developed, implemented, and appropriate digital maps were created. 相似文献