共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Earthquake casualty prediction is crucial for efficient and effective emergency management and response. In order to improve prediction reliability of earthquake casualties, correlation analysis and principal component analysis are used to select prediction covariates. Finally, five key indexes, including magnitude, epicenter intensity, population density, earthquake occurrence time and damaged building area, are chosen. According to the “two-stage” rule of earthquake casualties, a prediction model based on the modified partial Gaussian curve is proposed. In order to improve its prediction accuracy, the paper looked epicenter intensity and the casualty as the variables. And the partial Gaussian curve prediction model is modified by using the magnitude coefficient, population density coefficient, earthquake occurrence time coefficient and damaged building coefficient. The cross-validation experimental results show that the modified partial Gaussian curve has the advantages of good stability and high prediction accuracy comparing with the high-order nonlinearity, logarithmic curve, multivariate linearity, artificial neural network and so on. It can be used in practice from earthquake casualty prediction. 相似文献
2.
Prognostic estimations of the expected number of killed or injured people and about the approximate cost associated with the damages caused by earthquakes are made following a suitable methodology of wide-ranging application. For the preliminary assessment of human life losses due to the occurrence of a relatively strong earthquake we use a quantitative model consisting of a correlation between the number of casualties and the earthquake magnitude as a function of population density. The macroseismic intensity field is determined in accordance with an updated anelastic attenuation law, and the number of casualties within areas of different intensity is computed using an application developed in a geographic information system (GIS) environment, taking advantage of the possibilities of such a system for the treatment of space-distributed data. The casualty rate, defined as the number of killed people divided by the number of inhabitants of the affected region, is also computed and we show its variation for some urban concentrations with different population density. For a rough preliminary evaluation of the direct economic cost derived from the damages, equally through a GIS-based tool, we take into account the local social wealth as a function of the gross domestic product of the country. This last step is performed on the basis of the relationship of the macroseismic intensity to the earthquake economic loss in percentage of the wealth. Such an approach to the human casualty and damage levels is carried out for sites near important cities located in a seismically active zone of Spain, thus contributing to an easier taking of decisions in emergency preparedness planning, contemporary earthquake engineering and seismic risk prevention. 相似文献
3.
Stav Shapira Tsafrir Levi Yaron Bar-Dayan Limor Aharonson-Daniel 《Natural Hazards》2018,91(3):1059-1074
The use of casualty modeling in the field of disaster management is well established. Nevertheless, it is currently based almost exclusively on damage to the built environment and fails to consider additional factors that may influence the number of casualties in a given event, such as behavioral features of the exposed population. The present study has taken an innovative approach and integrated behavioral traits of residents in a high-risk area in northern Israel, near the Dead Sea Transform, into a well-known casualty estimation simulation. The expected behavioral characteristics of residents during an earthquake, in city sectors with different socioeconomic rankings, were assessed using a designated survey and were applied into the casualty estimation process. In order to test the sensitivity of the behavioral factor, twelve synthetic earthquake scenarios were designed. The results shed light on the relationship between specific behavioral strategies and casualty projections and suggest that loss estimation models that do not take behavioral factors into account may overestimate the projected number of casualties. Households with low socioeconomic status were found to be more vulnerable in terms of risk of injury and death compared with those ranked higher. The present study shows the importance of raising public awareness regarding proper behavior prior to and during the event which can help increase resilience of communities, mitigate risks and losses and ultimately save lives. Further implications of these results and possible ways of improving casualty modeling and community resilience are also discussed. 相似文献
4.
Natural hazards are natural processes of the complex Earth system and may interact and affect each other. Often a single hazard can trigger a subsequent, different hazard, such as earthquakes triggering landslides. The effect of such cascading hazards has received relatively little attention in the literature. The majority of previous research has focused on single hazards in isolation, and even multi-hazard risk assessment currently does not account for the interaction between hazards, therefore ignoring potential amplification effects. Global earthquake-and-landslide fatality data were used to model cascading events to explore relationships between the number of fatalities during single and cascading events and covariates. A multivariate statistical approach was used to model the relationship between earthquake fatalities and several covariates. The covariates included earthquake magnitude, gross domestic product, slope, poverty, health, access to cities, exposed population to earthquake shaking, building strength and whether a landslide was triggered or not. Multivariate regression analysis showed the numbers of earthquake fatalities are significantly affected by whether a subsequent landslide is triggered or not. 相似文献
5.
Earthquake disaster is still the number one among all natural disasters, particularly, in terms of destructive power in causing deaths. Can earthquake engineers control seismic casualties through the seismic design of buildings? For this purpose, a conception of casualty control based seismic design is presented and a “two-step decision-making” method is proposed for determining the optimum seismic design intensity (or ground-motion) for controlling both seismic death and economic losses. The key problems in establishing the model are to determine the appropriate socially acceptable level of earthquake mortality and establish the corresponding objective function and /or constraint conditions in determining the optimum seismic design intensity. Ten different grades of socially acceptable mortality are suggested and the final socially acceptable mortality level was proposed for seismic design based on a questionnaire that was distributed nationwide in China. Finally, the method was applied to eight cities with different seismic hazard in China and the effects of various grades of acceptable earthquake mortality on seismic design intensity are analyzed. 相似文献
6.
地震对人类的威胁不仅是发生时直接造成的人员伤亡和财产损失, 更体现在地震所产生的高隐蔽性、高危险性滑坡隐患体带来的危害, 震后区域滑坡隐患体的快速识别和科学评价在震后抢险、排险工作中至关重要。以九寨沟地区“川主寺—九寨沟”公路沿线区域为研究对象, 建立了基于DInSAR-BP神经网络技术的震后区域滑坡危险性综合评价模型。研究结果显示, 九寨沟地区震后的滑坡高危险性区域面积约为2602.35 km2, 是震前的3.4倍, 并且这些区域主要分布在震中东北方向约20 km附近、九寨沟景区内以及川九路前70 km, 符合震后调查情况; 使用多元非线性回归法可以有效计算震后地表形变值对滑坡危险性的影响, 使震后危险性评价结果精度提高了13.9%, 证明了模型在研究区域内具有良好的适用性。 相似文献
7.
汶川、玉树大地震造成了重大人员伤亡和财产损失。地震发生后,对地观测技术成为地震灾害监测与灾情评估的重
要手段。本文将从三个方面论述对地观测技术在上述地震灾害评估和研究中所发挥的作用：一是利用高分辨率光学对地观
测技术,建立堰塞湖、道路损毁、崩塌/滑坡/碎屑流等次生地质灾害的遥感分析方法和模型,系统监测汶川地震次生地质
灾害的空间分布、损毁范围、风险程度;二是利用宽幅和干涉两种模式SAR数据,分析玉树地震的区域地质构造和岩性分
布特征,获得玉树地震同震形变场大小及其空间分布信息,证明了多模式SAR在地震灾情协同分析与评价中的有效性和重
要潜力;三是建立了地震灾害三维模拟评估系统,提高了对地震灾害三维模拟的精确性,为地震灾情的精确三维评估提供
了系统平台。 相似文献
8.
Landslide initiation due to earthquake is one of the most prevalent seismic hazard, which claims hundreds of lives in the Himalayan mountainous terrains of India. Number of landslides, maximum distance from the epicentre and total landslide area/volume are correlatable with earthquake magnitudes. Application of globally accepted earthquake triggered landslide parameter models do not match well with published data for the Himalayan earthquake triggered landslides. Considering the incompleteness of landslide inventories for most of the Himalayan earthquakes, development of regression equations show that in the Himalayan environment, landslide may trigger even with imperciptable earthquakes affecting longer distances having earthquake magnitude of more than 8 M with potential to affect more areas than the global expectations. 相似文献
9.
Hengjian Lu Kohiyama Masayuki Horie Kei Maki Norio Hayashi Haruo Tanaka Satoshi 《Natural Hazards》2003,29(3):387-403
The relationship between building damage patterns and human casualties in Nishinomiya City – one of the most heavily damaged cities in the 1995 Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster – was investigated using photographs of damaged buildings. First, the photographs of buildings in which casualties occurred were identified, and the building damage patterns were judged based on the photographs considering the existence of survival space. Then the relationship between the building damage pattern and casualty occurrence, and the characteristics of casualty distribution, were investigated. The main findings were as follows: Most casualties occurred in relatively old two-story wooden buildings in which the ground floor completely collapsed without survival space; casualties occurred at all building damage levels including ``no damage', and it can be seen that building damage is the major, but not the sole cause, of casualties in an earthquake; in Nishinomiya City, the regional distributions of casualties due to the collapse of buildings that left no survival space is similar to that of casualties due to other types of building damage. 相似文献
10.
Data concerning this earthquake and the seismicity of the surrounding area have been examined. Large historical earthquakes before 1884 show that destructive shocks in the area have a recurrence period of about two hundred years. Recent seismic activity has been high from 1910 to 1955 and lower thereafter. Total number of casualties for the 1884 earthquake is estimated at 745 dead and 1475 wounded. Damage to buildings extended to 4399 houses totally destroyed and 6316 partially damaged. A new intensity map has been drawn from the original reports fron which the approximate location of the epicenter, depth of focus, attenuation of energy and source dimensions have been determined. The aftershock sequence of felt events lasted for nearly a year with an increase of activity at the second month. 相似文献
11.
Earthquake loss estimation of residential buildings in Pakistan 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Pakistan is an earthquake-prone region due to its tectonic setting resulting in high hazard with moderate-to-strong ground motions and vulnerability of structures and infrastructures, leading to the loss of lives and livelihood, property damage and economic losses. Earthquake-related disaster in Pakistan is a regular and serious threat to the community; however, the country lack tools for earthquake risk reduction through early warning (pre-earthquake planning), rapid response (prompt response at locations of high risk) and pre-financing earthquake risk (property insurance against disaster). This paper presents models for physical damageability assessment and socioeconomic loss estimation of structures in Pakistan for earthquake-induced ground motions, derived using state-of-the-art earthquake loss estimation methodologies. The methodologies are being calibrated with the site-specific materials and structures response, whereas the derived models are tested and validated against recent observed earthquakes in the region. The models can be used to develop damage scenario for earthquakes (assess damaged and collapsed structures, casualties and homeless) and estimate economic losses, i.e., cost of repair and reconstruction (for a single earthquake event as well as all possible earthquakes). The models can provide help on policy- and decision-making toward earthquake risk mitigation and disaster risk reduction in Pakistan. 相似文献
12.
Andrei Bala 《Natural Hazards》2014,72(3):1429-1445
Bucharest, the capital city of Romania, with more than 2 million inhabitants, is considered as a natural disaster hotspot by a recent global study of the World Bank and the Columbia University (Dilley M et al. Natural disaster hotspots: a global risk analysis. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank and Columbia University, Washington, DC in 2005). Therefore, it is classified as the second metropolis in Europe, after Istanbul, subjected to important losses in the case of a destructive Vrancea earthquake with moment magnitude greater than seven. Four major earthquakes with moment magnitudes between 6.9 and 7.7 hit Bucharest in the last 68 years. The most recent destructive earthquake on March 4, 1977, with a moment magnitude of 7.4, caused about 1,500 casualties in the capital alone. All disastrous intermediate-depth earthquakes are generated within a small epicentral area—the Vrancea seismogenic region—about 150 km northeast of Bucharest. Thick unconsolidated sedimentary layers below Bucharest amplify the arriving seismic waves causing severe destruction. Ten 50-m-deep boreholes are drilled in the metropolitan area of Bucharest in order to obtain a unique, homogeneous dataset of seismic, soil-mechanic and elasto-dynamic parameters. Cores for dynamic tests were extracted, and vertical seismic profiles were performed to obtain an updated site amplification model related to earthquakes waves. The boreholes are placed near former or existing seismic station sites to allow a direct comparison and calibration of the borehole data with previous seismological measurements. A database containing geological characteristics for each sedimentary layer, geotechnical parameters measured on rock samples, P- and S wave velocity and density for each sedimentary layer is set up, as a result of previous papers with this subject. Direct data obtained by the geophysical methods in the new boreholes drilled in Bucharest City, as well as from laboratory measurements, are used as input data in the program SHAKE2000. Results are obtained in the form of spectral acceleration response, and peak acceleration in depth is computed for every site in which in situ measurements were performed. The acceleration response spectra correspond to the shear-wave amplifications due to the models of sedimentary layers down to (a) 50 m depth; (b) 70 m depth; and (c) 100 m depth. A comparison of the acceleration response spectra obtained by modelling at surface with a real signal recorded at surface is obtained in three sites, as test sites for the three depths considered, in order to calibrate the results obtained by equivalent linear method of the seismic site response. 相似文献
13.
Landslide susceptibility evaluation is one of the most important issues in watershed management. After an earthquake, the landslide susceptibility decreases functionally with increases in the distance from the epicenter. Under the same rainfall intensity, landslides are more likely to occur in an area where earthquakes occur more frequently. However, the questions of how much an earthquake should be weighted and how to evaluate the effects of an earthquake still need to be studied. To understand how earthquakes affect rainfall-triggered landslides, the horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) data from the Central Weather Bureau Seismic Network is used as the earthquake factor and combined with other factors to determine the weight of earthquakes in landslide susceptibility using logistic regression. The results indicate that the ability of landslide prediction is better when considering the earthquake factor. This study also proved that although there are no co-seismic landslides (after earthquakes) in the study area, the earthquake factor is still required to increase the model accuracy. PGA has been described as a usable factor. In areas with frequent earthquakes and high geological activity, when using historical data to evaluate landslide susceptibility, the earthquake factor should be taken into consideration to prevent errors. 相似文献
14.
lvaro Gonzlez Miguel Vzquez-Prada Javier B. Gmez Amalio F. Pacheco 《Tectonophysics》2006,424(3-4):319
Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data. 相似文献
15.
Shunichi Koshimura Toshitaka Katada Harold O. Mofjeld Yoshiaki Kawata 《Natural Hazards》2006,39(2):265-274
This study develops a method for estimating the number of casualties that may occur while people evacuate from an inundation
zone when a tsunami has inundated an area. The method is based on a simple model of hydrodynamic forces as they affect the
human body. The method uses a Tsunami casualty index (TCI) computed at each grid point of a numerical tsunami model to determine
locations and times within the tsunami inundation zone where evacuation during the tsunami inundation is not possible and
therefore where casualties are likely to occur. The locations and times can be combined with information about population
density to compute the potential number of casualties. This information is useful in developing tsunami evacuation routes
that avoid such locations. To illustrate the method, it is applied to the Seattle waterfront in Washington State, USA, that
is under the threat of possible tsunami disasters due to Seattle Fault earthquakes. Preliminary results suggest that the tsunami
casualties may occur within the Seattle waterfront for 15 min, during the time interval from 3 to 18 min after a large Seattle
Fault tsunami is generated when the background tide level is mean high water. 相似文献
16.
Tsimopoulou Vana Mikami Takahito Hossain Tajnova Tanha Takagi Hiroshi Esteban Miguel Utama Nuki Agya 《Natural Hazards》2020,103(2):2045-2070
Natural Hazards - In 2018, Lombok island, Indonesia, was hit by a series of destructive earthquakes that caused thousands of casualties and widespread material damage. In response to those events,... 相似文献
17.
18.
基于差分干涉雷达的汶川地震同震形变特点 总被引：9，自引：8，他引：1
地震同震形变场是认识震源机制、确定发震断裂、分析发震断裂活动方式、评估震害损失及揭示未来发震趋势的重要依据。但在龙门山地区复杂的自然环境中, 现有的地震同震形变场获取方法(GPS测量、构造形迹分析、震源机制解结合数值模拟计算)难以快速、全面的捕捉到这种信息, 这突显出差分干涉雷达技术(D-InSAR, Differential Interferometry SAR)在同震形变场研究中的优势。本文介绍了其观测原理, 在地震同震形变监测中的研究现状, 并重点分析了已获取的D-InSAR汶川地震同震形变场的观测结果。基于差分干涉雷达观测及相关资料, 对龙门山断裂在本次地震中活动性进行了初步分析, 结果表明干涉雷达形变图像与地表破裂范围、逆冲角度的变化、上下盘升降关系及大型余震的展布存在很强的相关性。 相似文献
19.
极震区的地震动与潜在震源区内重大工程安全 总被引：11，自引：4，他引：7
潜在震源区是未来可能发生破坏性地震的震源所在地区 ,区内的地震属近场或直下型 ,其地震破坏和地震动特征相应于已发生地震的极震区。近期国内外诸多强烈地震的实际资料和相关研究成果表明 ,直下型地震不仅地震峰值加速度大 ,且竖向和水平峰值加速度比值也有别于远场地震的统计关系。文中从极震区岩土体破坏、地震动特点及地震地质灾害等方面对潜在震源区内的重大工程问题进行了探讨 相似文献
20.
This article is devoted to evaluating destructive earthquakes (magnitude >6) of Iran and determining properties of their source parameters. First of all, a database of documented earthquakes has been prepared via reliable references and causative faults of each event have been determined. Then, geometric parameters of each fault have been presented completely. Critical parameters such as Maximum Credible Rupture, MCR, and Maximum Credible Earthquake, MCE, have been compiled based on the geometrical parameters of the earthquake faults. The calculated parameters have been compared to the maximum earthquake and the surface rupture which have been recorded for the earthquake faults. Also, the distance between the epicenter of documented earthquake events and their causative faults has been calculated (the distance was less than 20 km for 90% of the data). Then, the distance between destructive earthquakes (with the magnitude more than 6) and the nearest active fault has been calculated. If the estimated distance is less than 20 km and the mechanism of the active fault and the event are reported the same, the active fault will be introduced as a probable causative fault of that earthquake. In the process, all of the available geological, tectonic, seismotectonic maps, aerial geophysical data as well as remote sensing images have been evaluated. Based on the quality and importance of earthquake data, the events have been classified into three categories: (1) the earthquakes which have their causative faults documented, (2) the events with magnitude higher than 7, and (3) the events with the magnitude between 6 and 7. For each category, related maps and tables have been compiled and presented. Some important faults and events have been also described throughout the paper. As mentioned in this paper, these faults are likely to be in high seismic regions with potential for large-magnitude events as they are long, deep and bound sectors of the margins characterized by different deformation and coupling rates on the plate interface. 相似文献