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1.
On June 24, 2015, Hongyanzi slope located in Wushan County of the Three Gorges Reservoir collapsed, generating 5–6-m-high impulse waves, which overturned 13 boats, killed 2 persons, and injured 4 persons. It is the second incident of landslide-generated impulse waves since the 175-m experimental impoundment in 2008. The emergency investigation shows that Hongyanzi landslide is a bedding soil landslide with a volume of 23?×?104 m3 induced by a series of triggering factors such as rainfall, flooding upstream, and reservoir drawdown. The nonlinear Boussinesq water wave model is used to reproduce the impulse waves generated by the landslide of June 24th. The numerical simulation results suggest that the wave propagation process was influenced by the T-shaped geomorphic conditions of river valley, and the coastal areas in the county seat were the major wave-affected areas, which is opposite to the landslide. The numerical wave process accord well with the observed incident, and the investigation values were in good agreement with the calculated values. Moreover, the worst-case scenario of the 7?×?104 m3 deformation mass beside Hongyanzi landslide is potential to generate impulse waves, which was predicted with the same numerical model. This adjacent deformation mass will probably generate impulse waves with maximum height and run-up of 2.2 and 2.0 m, respectively, and only a very few areas in the water course had waves rising to a height of 1 m or above. The research results provide a technical basis for emergency disposal to Hongyanzi landslide and navigation restriction in Wushan waterway. More importantly, it pushes the risk management of the navigation based on the impulse wave generated by landslide. It is advised that the Three Gorges Reservoir and other reservoirs around the world should put more efforts in performing special surveys and studies on the potential hazards associated with landslide-generated impulse waves.  相似文献   

2.
The Usoi dam was created in the winter of 1911 after an enormous seismogenic rock slide completely blocked the valley of the Bartang River in the Pamir Mountains of southeastern Tajikistan. At present the dam impounds 17 million cubic meters of water in Lake Sarez. Flood volume and discharge estimates were made for several landslide generated floods that could overtop the dam. For landslide volumes of 200, 500, and 1,000 million cubic meters, estimated overtopping flood volumes were 2, 22, and 87 million cubic meters of water, respectively. Estimated peak discharge at the dam for these three flood scenarios were 57,000, 490,000, and 1,580,000 m3/s, based on triangular hydrographs of 70-, 90-, and 110-s durations, respectively. Flood-routing simulations were made for the three landslide-induced overtopping floods over a 530-km reach of the Bartang and Panj Rivers below the Usoi dam. A one-dimensional flow model using a Riemann numerical solution technique was selected for the analysis. For the 87 million cubic meter volume overtopping flood scenario, the peak flows were approximately 1, 100, 800, and 550 m3/s at locations 50, 100, and 150 km downstream of the dam respectively.  相似文献   

3.
李平  黄跃飞  李兵 《水科学进展》2018,29(5):677-684
为研究梯级水库漫坝连溃的风险,并探索贝叶斯网络在水库连溃风险分析中的可行性,通过构建洪水作用下双库连溃的贝叶斯网络模型,并选取四川省大渡河上两相邻梯级水库进行分析,以推求水库漫（溃）坝概率及评估连溃风险。分析过程表明贝叶斯网络方法能直观、简便地分析多风险源共同作用下的水库群连溃风险问题。结果表明,两水库天然洪水漫坝条件概率的数量级均为10-6,洪水引发单库漫坝风险较小;正常蓄水位以上,上游水库溃坝洪水致下游水库漫坝条件概率超0.8,即上游水库溃坝导致水库连溃的风险很大。  相似文献   

4.
Wang  Dayang  Wang  Dagang  Mo  Chongxun  Du  Yi 《Natural Hazards》2021,108(2):1585-1608

The risk analysis of reservoir regulation in the flood season is crucial and provides the valuable information for reservoir flood control, safety operation, and decision making, especially under climate change. The purpose of this study is to propose a framework for reasonably estimating the variation of reservoir regulation risk including the dam extreme risk and the overtopping risk during the flood season under climate change. The framework consists of an integrated diagnostic system for detecting the climate abrupt change time, a copula function-based bivariate statistical approach for modeling the dependence between the flood peak and flood volume, a Monte Carlo simulation for generating numerous random flood peak–volume pairs, and a risk calculation model for routing the design flood hydrographs to obtain the frequency curve of the maximum water level reached in front of dam and evaluating the reservoir regulation risk. The methodology was implemented in the Chengbihe reservoir in south China by using the 55-year (1963–2017) hydrometeorological data, including temperature, evaporation, precipitation, and streamflow, in the flood season. Results show that the hydrometeorological series during the flood season changed abruptly in 1992 and the entire data can be divided into two periods (1963–1992 and 1993–2017). The dam extreme risk and overtopping risk during the two periods are assessed, respectively, and a comparison analysis is made based on different flood limit water-level schemes (185.00–188.50 m). It demonstrates that both the dam extreme risk and the dam overtopping risk increase under the influence of climate change. The dam extreme risk increases by 22.91–95.03%, while the climate change-induced increase in the dam overtopping risk is between 38.62 and 123.59%, which indicates that the dam overtopping risk is more sensitive to climate change than the dam extreme risk. The risk evaluations in the study are of great significance in the safety operation and risk management of reservoirs under future climate change.

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5.
This paper proposes and demonstrates a two-layer depth-averaged model with non-hydrostatic pressure correction to simulate landslide-generated waves. Landslide (lower layer) and water (upper layer) motions are governed by the general shallow water equations derived from mass and momentum conservation laws. The landslide motion and wave generation/propagation are separately formulated, but they form a coupled system. Our model combines some features of the landslide analysis model DAN3D and the tsunami analysis model COMCOT and adds a non-hydrostatic pressure correction. We use the new model to simulate a 2007 rock avalanche-generated wave event at Chehalis Lake, British Columbia, Canada. The model results match both the observed distribution of the rock avalanche deposit in the lake and the wave run-up trimline along the shoreline. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate the importance of accounting for the non-hydrostatic dynamic pressure at the landslide-water interface, as well as the influence of the internal strength of the landslide on the size of the generated waves. Finally, we compare the numerical results of landslide-generated waves simulated with frictional and Voellmy rheologies. Similar maximum wave run-ups can be obtained using the two different rheologies, but the frictional model better reproduces the known limit of the rock avalanche deposit and is thus considered to yield the best overall results in this particular case.  相似文献   

6.
The interest in numerical simulation of cascading processes involving mass movements and lakes has recently risen strongly, especially as the formation of new lakes in high-mountain areas as a consequence of glacier recession can be observed all over the world. These lakes are often located close to potentially unstable slopes and therewith prone to impacts from mass movements, which may cause the lake to burst out and endanger settlements further downvalley. The need for hazard assessment of such cascading processes is continuously rising, which demands methodological development of coupled numerical simulations. Our study takes up on the need for systematic analysis of the effect of assumptions taken in the simulation of the process chain and the propagation of the corresponding uncertainties on the simulation results. We complemented the research of Adv Geosci 35:145-155, 2014 carried out at Lake 513 in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, by focusing on the aspects of (a) ice-avalanche scenario development and of (b) analysis of uncertainty propagation in the coupled numerical simulation of the process chain of an impact wave triggered by a rock/ice avalanche. The analysis of variance of the dimension of the overtopping wave was based on 54 coupled simulation runs, applying RAMMS and IBER for simulation of the ice avalanche and the impact wave, respectively. The results indicate (a) location and magnitude of potential ice-avalanche events, and further showed (b) that the momentum transfer between an avalanche and the impact wave seems to be reliably representable in coupled numerical simulations. The assessed parameters—initial avalanche volume, friction calibration, mass entrainment and transformation of the data between the models—was decisive of whether the wave overtopped or not. The overtopping time and height directly characterize the overtopping wave, while the overtopping volume and the discharge describe the overtopping hydrograph as a consequence of the run-up rather than the wave. The largest uncertainties inherent in the simulation of the impact wave emerge from avalanche-scenario definition rather than from coupling of the models. These findings are of relevance also to subsequent outburst flow simulation and contribute to advance numerical simulation of the entire process chain, which might also be applied to mass movements other than rock/ice avalanches.  相似文献   

7.
This paper presents a new landslide-generated wave (LGW) model based on incompressible Euler equations with Savage-Hutter assumptions. A two-layer model is developed including a layer of granular-type flow beneath a layer of an inviscid fluid. Landslide is modeled as a two-phase Coulomb mixture. A well-balanced second-order finite volume formulation is applied to solve the model equations. Wet/dry transitions are treated properly using a modified non-linear method. The numerical model is validated using two sets of experimental data on subaerial and submarine LGWs. Impulsive wave characteristics and landslide deformations are estimated with a computational error less than 5 %. Then, the model is applied to investigate the effects of landslide deformations on water surface fluctuations in comparison with a simpler model considering a rigid landslide. The model results confirm the importance of both rheological behavior and two-phase nature of landslide in proper estimation of generated wave properties and formation patterns. Rigid slide modeling often overestimates the characteristics of induced waves. With a proper rheological model for landslide, the numerical prediction of LGWs gets more than 30 % closer to experimental measurements. Single-phase landslide results in relative errors up to about 30 % for maximum positive and about 70 % for maximum negative wave amplitudes. Two-phase constitutive structure of landslide has also strong effects on landslide deformations, velocities, elongations, and traveling distances. The complex behaviors of landslide and LGW of the experimental data are analyzed and described with the aid of the robust and accurate finite volume model. This can provide benchmark data for testing other numerical methods and models.  相似文献   

8.
This paper presents a study of the effects of a potential landslide in La Yesca Reservoir, Jalisco-Nayarit, Mexico. The main purpose of the paper is to predict the maximum wave amplitude, wave run-up, and dam overtopping. The landslide is formed by an unstable slope of more than 24 Mm3 that is partially submerged for the range of the reservoir operation levels. The dynamics of the sliding mass were obtained in detail considering that it moves over a pair of failure surfaces with the potential rupture of a third surface. The paper presents results of a physical model of the reservoir based on Froude similitude (scale 1:200). Impulse waves are produced with a solid wedge shape slide as it moves on rails. The movement was calibrated to reproduce the dynamics of the landslide. Also, numerical modelling of the event was performed with a 2D implicit model that solves the two-dimensional shallow water equations. In this case, the impulse waves were generated at each time increment with the variation of the ground elevation (obtained from the dynamics of the landslide) for the mesh points where the landslide passes. The results of both studies are similar.  相似文献   

9.
In recent years, climate change and retreating glaciers constitute a major hazard in the Himalaya of South Asia. Glacial lakes are rapidly developing or increasing due to climate change. The rapid development of the lake may cause outburst of the lake. The outburst discharge from the glacial lake can cause catastrophic flooding and disaster in downstream area. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the impact of climate change on glacial lakes and to understand the characteristics of the glacial lake outburst. In this study, the field assessment of Tsho Rolpa Glacial Lake in the Himalaya of Nepal has been presented and the impact of climate change on this glacial lake has been discussed. The Tsho Rolpa Glacial Lake is the largest and most potentially dangerous glacial lake in Nepal. In addition, a numerical model has been also developed for computing the characteristics of glacial lake outburst due to moraine dam failure by seepage and water overtopping. The numerical model is tested for the flume experimental cases. The simulated results of the outburst discharge, the dam surface erosion, and the temporal variation of the moisture movement in the dam are compared with those obtained from the hydraulic model experiments. The moisture profile calculated by numerical model was agreeable with the experimental moisture profile. The simulated failure surface of the dam due to seepage by considering the suction in slope stability analysis gave more agreeable results than the Janbu's simplified method. The results of the outburst discharge and dam surface erosion also agreed with the experimental results.  相似文献   

10.
After the Gongjiafang tsunami incident, the China Geological Survey recognized the extreme importance of subaerial landslide-generated tsunamis (SLGT) in the Three Gorges Reservoir, western China. The experimental models presented in the present paper were rooted in two common failure types of high, steep slopes in the Three Gorges Reservoir. One model represents a rigid rock plunging into the water and the other is a granular cluster sliding into the water. A wide range of effective parameters were considered and studied by performing 74 laboratory tests. The effects of bed slope angle, water depth, slide impact velocity, geometry (three-dimensional size of the rigid block and grain size of the granular cluster), and volume on impulse wave characteristics were examined. Slide kinematics and impulsive wave features, such as wave shape, amplitude, run-up, and run-down, were studied and compared. Experiments showed that the failure type of the rock mass plays a key role in SLGT and strongly influences air–fluid–solid interaction. Thus, to forecast SLGT rapidly, the zone of complicated air–solid–fluid interaction can be treated as a “black box” whose output is a water wave with definable characteristics, such as amplitude. Based on the experimental results, two dimensionless equations for the estimation of primary wave maximum amplitude were developed and successfully verified for the two failure types. The study provides basic information needed to forecast tsunamis generated by slopes with the potential to fail in other reservoirs around the world. These data can also be a very useful resource for theoretical analysis or numerical model validation.  相似文献   

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