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1.
Community variations in social vulnerability to Cascadia-related tsunamis in the U.S. Pacific Northwest 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Tsunamis generated by Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes pose significant threats to coastal communities in the U.S. Pacific
Northwest. Impacts of future tsunamis to individuals and communities will likely vary due to pre-event socioeconomic and demographic
differences. In order to assess social vulnerability to Cascadia tsunamis, we adjust a social vulnerability index based on
principal component analysis first developed by Cutter et al. (2003) to operate at the census-block level of geography and focus on community-level comparisons along the Oregon coast. The number
of residents from blocks in tsunami-prone areas considered to have higher social vulnerability varies considerably among 26
Oregon cities and most are concentrated in four cities and two unincorporated areas. Variations in the number of residents
from census blocks considered to have higher social vulnerability in each city do not strongly correlate with the number of
residents or city assets in tsunami-prone areas. Methods presented here will help emergency managers to identify community
sub-groups that are more susceptible to loss and to develop risk-reduction strategies that are tailored to local conditions. 相似文献
2.
Social vulnerability and seismic risk perception. Case study: the historic center of the Bucharest Municipality/Romania 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
Iuliana Armaş 《Natural Hazards》2008,47(3):397-410
Social vulnerability is as much a part of risk as building damage, hazard magnitude, and economic loss. Social vulnerability refers to the capacity of a human community exposed during the impact of a natural hazard event (in this case, an earthquake)
to resist, cope with, and recover from that impact. In the perspective of the 3rd millennium, we come to understand that the
most efficient and accessible way to reduce the pressure of natural risks is to reduce the vulnerability level of the human
communities exposed to that certain hazard. This study aims to test, in an exposed and vulnerable area, the relationship between
social vulnerability and the perception of the seismic risk. The research focuses only on the first level of social vulnerability,
defined as the ability of an individual within a household to recover from a natural hazard impact (Dwyer et al. 2004). A prevailing assumption was that social vulnerability influences the level of perception of the seismic risk, in an exposed, vulnerable area. To this end, two samples were used, different under the aspect of social vulnerability, in the context of the same residential
area. Social vulnerability was computed as a normalized composed index that includes the poverty ratio and the demographic
vulnerability ratio (depending on the age, gender, and education level indicators). The statistical processing has indicated
a significant difference in the high perception level for the two samples that were compared, in the sense that in the context
of an increased level of social vulnerability, people generally better acknowledge the seismic risk.
相似文献
| Iuliana ArmaşEmail: |
3.
Hazus-MH earthquake modeling in the central USA 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
This investigation was undertaken to assess the sensitivity of the Hazus-MH (v2.0) earthquake model to model parameters and to guide the selection of these parameters for realistic earthquake-loss assessment in the central USA. To accomplish these goals, we performed several sensitivity analyses and a validation assessment using earthquake damage surveys from the 2008 M5.2 Mt. Carmel, Illinois earthquake. We evaluated the sensitivity of the Hazus-MH earthquake model to the selection of seismic hazard data, attenuation function, soils data, liquefaction data, and structural fragility curves. These sensitivity analyses revealed that earthquake damage, loss, and casualty estimates are most sensitive to the seismic hazard data and selection of the attenuation function. The selection of the seismic hazard data and attenuation function varied earthquake damages and capital-stock losses by ±68?% and casualty estimates by ±84?%. The validation assessment revealed that Hazus-MH overpredicted observed damages by 68?C221?% depending on the model parameters employed. The model run using region-specific soils, liquefaction, and structure fragility curves produced the most realistic damage estimate (within 68?% of actual damages). Damage estimates using default Hazus-MH parameters were overpredicted by 155?%. The uncertainties identified here are similar to uncertainties recognized in other Hazus-MH validation assessments. Despite uncertainties in Hazus-MH earthquake-loss estimates, such estimates are still useful for planning and response so long as the limitations of the results are properly conveyed to planners, decision makers, emergency responders, and the public. 相似文献
4.
5.
Analysis of social vulnerability to hazards in China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
To improve natural disaster management, it is important to recognize the variability of the vulnerable populations exposed to hazards and to develop location-based emergency plans accordingly. This paper presents a mathematical model to establish a model of social vulnerability index (SoVI), which includes 12 social variables, and the regional social vulnerability to natural hazards was formulated by them. Taking a city as statistical unit, the variability of vulnerability to natural hazards was explored among the 323 cities based on the SoVI. The results indicate that vulnerability is a location-based regional phenomenon, with the most vulnerable cities being located in the southwest of China and the eastern areas being generally less vulnerable. The results will be helpful for policy makers to formulate disaster management plans, which can be beneficial for people in more vulnerable areas who are responding to, coping with, and recovering from natural disasters. 相似文献
6.
Linda J. Anderson-Berry 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(2):209-232
This paper is a partial discussion of a four-year study that investigated the vulnerability of the people living in the Cairns region to the tropical cyclone hazard. The longitudinal case study, focussing on the Cairns Northern Beaches area, was unique in that it included a social and societal `pre-cyclone impact' evaluation of various resident communities within the region, and then two consecutive `post-cyclone impact' studies. The primary research method supported an inductive qualitative approach to the collection and analysis of survey data. Some quantitative methods were invoked to support qualitative research findings. Survey data was collected in five separate questionnaire-based social surveys that were administered between 1996 and 2000. During the study, residents experiencedthe direct impact of two land-falling tropical cyclones. In addition to this, targeted andfocussed tropical cyclone awareness education was made increasingly available withinthe community. The social and demographic attributes that influence the individual'sperception of risk and contribute to our understanding of community vulnerability were examined and evaluated. Changes in the residents' attitudes, cyclone preparednessbehaviours and willingness to respond to cyclone warnings were monitored and measured. Analysis of early survey data indicated that community residents generally had some knowledge of cyclones but a limited understanding of cyclone processes and very little direct personal experience of the cyclone hazard. Individually and collectively, residents frequently demonstrated a biased perception of the risks associated with cyclones. The resident community was shown to be fragmented, with limited support being available to individual households. Initially, residents were found to be poorly prepared for cyclones and unlikely to respond to warnings appropriately. It appeared that, in the event of a land-falling tropical cyclone impacting the area, the community was highly vulnerable to unnecessary loss of property, livelihood and – in extreme circumstances – life. By 2000, Cairns community residents were somewhat better informed about cyclones and certainly more experienced. This paper provides some insight into how cyclone experience and education may synergisticly have contributed to a change in risk perceptions and a reduction in the vulnerability of Cairns residents to the tropical cyclone and storm surge hazards. 相似文献
7.
The seismic risks to which populations are exposed should be estimated reliably for mitigation and preparation of response to disastrous earthquakes. Three parameters need to be known: Population numbers, properties of the built environment, and the seismic hazard. If we focus on large cities, we can say that at least one of these is known satisfactorily, namely the population, but not the other two. In the developing world, the numbers of buildings in a city are known only approximately, their distribution into building types (resistance to shaking) has to be assumed, and the distribution of types throughout the city is unknown. Recent verification of the world seismic hazard map has shown that it is grossly misleading: Instrumental measurements of accelerations due to six earthquakes were about three times larger, on average, than the maximum likely accelerations shown on the map; the macroseismic intensities reported for the last 60 earthquakes with M ≥ 7.5 were all significantly larger than expected, based on the hazard map (by 2.3 intensity units for the 12 deadliest earthquakes); and calculations of losses of life based on the hazard map underestimate the losses sustained in the 12 recent earthquakes with more than 1,000 fatalities by two to three orders of magnitude. This means that the seismic risk in most of the approximately 1,000 large cities at risk in the developing world is unknown. To remedy this intolerable situation, models for the built environment in cities need to be constructed, using cost-effective analyses of satellite images, and worst case scenario estimates of the losses in case of the nearest maximum credible earthquake. 相似文献
8.
Prognostic estimations of the expected number of killed or injured people and about the approximate cost associated with the damages caused by earthquakes are made following a suitable methodology of wide-ranging application. For the preliminary assessment of human life losses due to the occurrence of a relatively strong earthquake we use a quantitative model consisting of a correlation between the number of casualties and the earthquake magnitude as a function of population density. The macroseismic intensity field is determined in accordance with an updated anelastic attenuation law, and the number of casualties within areas of different intensity is computed using an application developed in a geographic information system (GIS) environment, taking advantage of the possibilities of such a system for the treatment of space-distributed data. The casualty rate, defined as the number of killed people divided by the number of inhabitants of the affected region, is also computed and we show its variation for some urban concentrations with different population density. For a rough preliminary evaluation of the direct economic cost derived from the damages, equally through a GIS-based tool, we take into account the local social wealth as a function of the gross domestic product of the country. This last step is performed on the basis of the relationship of the macroseismic intensity to the earthquake economic loss in percentage of the wealth. Such an approach to the human casualty and damage levels is carried out for sites near important cities located in a seismically active zone of Spain, thus contributing to an easier taking of decisions in emergency preparedness planning, contemporary earthquake engineering and seismic risk prevention. 相似文献
9.
Burton Christopher G. Toquica Miguel Asad Khan Mortuza Bin Musori Michael 《Natural Hazards》2022,111(2):1301-1334
While many approaches for assessing earthquake risk exist within the literature and practice, it is the dynamic interrelationships between earthquake hazard, physical risk, and the social conditions of populations that are the focal point for disaster risk reduction. Here, the measurement of vulnerability to earthquakes (i.e., characteristics that create the potential for harm or loss) has become a major focus area. However, metrics aimed at measuring vulnerability to earthquakes suffer from several key limitations. For instance, hazard and community context are often ignored, and attempts to validate metrics are largely non-existent. The purpose of this paper is to produce composite indices of the vulnerability of countries to earthquakes within three topical areas: social vulnerability, economic vulnerability, and recovery potential. To improve upon the status quo in indicators development for measuring vulnerability to seismic events, our starting point was to: (1) define a set of indicators that are context specific to earthquakes as defined by the literature; (2) delineate indicators within categorical areas of vulnerability that are easy to understand and could be put into practical use by DRR practitioners; and (3) propose indicators that are validated using historical earthquake impacts. When mapped, the geographic variations in the differential susceptibility of populations and economies to the adverse effects of damaging earthquake impacts become evident, as does differential ability of countries to recover from them. Drivers of this geographic variation include average country debt, the type and density of infrastructure, poverty, governance, and educational attainment, to name just a few.
相似文献10.
Earthquake disaster is still the number one among all natural disasters, particularly, in terms of destructive power in causing deaths. Can earthquake engineers control seismic casualties through the seismic design of buildings? For this purpose, a conception of casualty control based seismic design is presented and a “two-step decision-making” method is proposed for determining the optimum seismic design intensity (or ground-motion) for controlling both seismic death and economic losses. The key problems in establishing the model are to determine the appropriate socially acceptable level of earthquake mortality and establish the corresponding objective function and /or constraint conditions in determining the optimum seismic design intensity. Ten different grades of socially acceptable mortality are suggested and the final socially acceptable mortality level was proposed for seismic design based on a questionnaire that was distributed nationwide in China. Finally, the method was applied to eight cities with different seismic hazard in China and the effects of various grades of acceptable earthquake mortality on seismic design intensity are analyzed. 相似文献
11.
Assessment of social vulnerability has been recognized as a critical step to understand natural hazard risks and to enhance effective response capabilities. Although significant achievements have been made in social vulnerability researches, little is know about the comprehensive profile of regional social vulnerability in China. In this study, the social vulnerability to natural hazards was firstly divided into socioeconomic and built environmental vulnerability. Then, using factor analysis, we identified the dominant factors that influence the provincial social vulnerability in China to natural hazards based on the socioeconomic and built environmental variables in 2000 and 2010 and explored the spatial patterns of social vulnerability. The results indicated that the provincial social vulnerability in China showed significant regional differences. The social vulnerability in the southeastern and eastern regions of China was greater than its northern and central parts over the past decade. Economic status, rural (proportion of agricultural population and percentage of workers employed in primary industries), urbanization, and age structure (children) were the dominant driving forces of variations in provincial socioeconomic vulnerability in two studied years, while lifelines and housing age could explain most of changes in built environmental vulnerability in 2000 and 2010. There were no statistically significant correlations between social vulnerability and disaster losses (p > 0.05), indicating the impact of disasters was also related to the intensity of hazards and exposure. Disaster relief funds allocated to each province of China depended more on its disaster severity than the regional integrated social vulnerability over the past decade. These findings would provide a scientific base for the policy making and implementation of disaster prevention and mitigation in China. 相似文献
12.
A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is developed here using maximum credible earthquake magnitude statistics and earthquake perceptibility hazard. Earthquake perceptibility hazard is defined as the probability a site perceives ground shaking equal to or greater than a selected ground motion level X, resulting from an earthquake of magnitude M, and develops estimates for the most perceptible earthquake magnitude, M P(max). Realistic and usable maximum magnitude statistics are obtained from both whole process and part process statistical recurrence models. These approaches are extended to develop relationships between perceptible earthquake magnitude hazard and maximum magnitude recurrence models that are governed by asymptotic and finite return period properties, respectively. Integrated perceptibility curves illustrating the probability of a specific level of perceptible ground motion due to all earthquakes over the magnitude range extending from ?∞ to a magnitude M i are then developed from reviewing site-specific magnitude perceptibility. These lead on to achieving site-specific annual probability of exceedance hazard curves for the example cities of Sofia and Thessaloniki for both horizontal ground acceleration and ground velocity. Both the maximum credible earthquake magnitude M 3 and the most perceptible earthquake magnitude M P(max) are of importance to the earthquake engineer when approaching anti-seismic building design. Both forms of hazard are illustrated using contoured hazard maps for the region bounded by 39°–45°N, 19°–29°E. Patterns are observed for these magnitude hazard estimates—especially M P(max) specific to horizontal ground acceleration and horizontal ground velocity—and compared to inferred patterns of crustal deformation across the region. The full geographic region considered is estimated to be subject to a maximum credible earthquake magnitude M 3—estimated using cumulative seismic moment release statistics—of 7.53 M w, calculated from the full content of the adopted earthquake catalogue, while Bulgaria’s capital, Sofia, is estimated a comparable value of 7.36 M w. Sofia is also forecast most perceptible earthquake magnitudes for the lowest levels considered for horizontal ground acceleration of M PA(50) = 7.20 M w and horizontal ground velocity of M PV(5) = 7.23 M w for a specimen focal depth of 15 km. 相似文献
13.
What do people think about the flood risk? An experience with the residents of Talcahuano city,Chile
In the province of Concepción (Chile), floods are considered one of the main natural hazards. One of the most important cities of this area is Talcahuano. During the last years, Talcahuano has been affected by a number of flood episodes, as a consequence of an increase in the frequency of extraordinary atmospheric events, along with a higher exposure to the flood risk caused by an intense urban development. On 27 February 2010, an 8.8° earthquake (Richter scale) occurred in central southern Chile and originated the tsunami which flooded a large percentage of the residential area and military base of the Talcahuano city. This flood event affected a population higher than 180,000 people (including 23 casualties and invaluable economic and environmental losses). The objective of this study is to investigate the social perception and knowledge of Talcahuano residents affected by different types of flood, including tsunami, emphasizing which are their risks, vulnerability, resilience and coping capacity concepts. In addition, the kind of measures that have been proposed to improve their capacity to face floods after having suffered the natural disaster will be determined. This social assessment has been carried out based on a survey to permanent residents. Research results reveal that their endogenous and exogenous characteristics have resulted determinant to explain their perception. 相似文献
14.
Iuliana Arma? 《Natural Hazards》2012,63(2):1129-1156
The expansive infrastructure, along with the high population density, makes cities highly vulnerable to the severe impacts of natural hazards. In the context of an explosive increase in value of the damage caused by natural disasters, the need for evaluating and visualizing the vulnerability of urban areas becomes a necessity in helping practitioners and stakeholders in their decision-making processes. The paper presented is a piece of exploratory research. The overall aim is to develop a spatial vulnerability approach to address earthquake risk, using a semi-quantitative model. The model uses the analytical framework of a spatial GIS-based multi-criteria analysis. For this approach, we have chosen Bucharest, the capital city of Romania, based on its high vulnerability to earthquakes due to a rapid urban growth and the advanced state of decay of the buildings (most of the building stock were built between 1940 and 1977). The spatial result reveals a circular pattern, pinpointing as hot spots the Bucharest historic centre (located on a meadow and river terrace, and with aged building stock) and peripheral areas (isolated from the emergency centers and defined by precarious social and economic conditions). In a sustainable development perspective, the example of Bucharest shows how spatial patterns shape the ??vulnerability profile?? of the city, based on which decision makers could develop proper prediction and mitigation strategies and enhance the resilience of cities against the risks resulting from the earthquake hazard. 相似文献
15.
Stav Shapira Tsafrir Levi Yaron Bar-Dayan Limor Aharonson-Daniel 《Natural Hazards》2018,91(3):1059-1074
The use of casualty modeling in the field of disaster management is well established. Nevertheless, it is currently based almost exclusively on damage to the built environment and fails to consider additional factors that may influence the number of casualties in a given event, such as behavioral features of the exposed population. The present study has taken an innovative approach and integrated behavioral traits of residents in a high-risk area in northern Israel, near the Dead Sea Transform, into a well-known casualty estimation simulation. The expected behavioral characteristics of residents during an earthquake, in city sectors with different socioeconomic rankings, were assessed using a designated survey and were applied into the casualty estimation process. In order to test the sensitivity of the behavioral factor, twelve synthetic earthquake scenarios were designed. The results shed light on the relationship between specific behavioral strategies and casualty projections and suggest that loss estimation models that do not take behavioral factors into account may overestimate the projected number of casualties. Households with low socioeconomic status were found to be more vulnerable in terms of risk of injury and death compared with those ranked higher. The present study shows the importance of raising public awareness regarding proper behavior prior to and during the event which can help increase resilience of communities, mitigate risks and losses and ultimately save lives. Further implications of these results and possible ways of improving casualty modeling and community resilience are also discussed. 相似文献
16.
Tiodora Hadumaon Siagian Purhadi Purhadi Suhartono Suhartono Hamonangan Ritonga 《Natural Hazards》2014,70(2):1603-1617
Indonesia is located in the Pacific Ring of Fire and situated at the joining point of four major world tectonic plates. Regions of Indonesia are highly prone to various natural hazards such as earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions. Some recent major natural hazard events are the 2004 tsunami in Aceh and Nias and the 2010 Mount Merapi volcanic eruptions in Central Java. In parallel with advancement in knowledge of the existing hazards, the importance of social aspects of vulnerability in mitigating natural hazards has been acknowledged by the Indonesian government. However, to date, there is no institutionalized effort for assessing social vulnerability to natural hazards that would cover all the districts of Indonesia. Accordingly, no comprehensive profile of social vulnerability is available as basis information for developing strategies to prevent larger risk and losses and reduce vulnerability of communities in Indonesia. Only a few studies have been conducted in Indonesia on this field. This study attempts to fill this gap by quantifying the social vulnerability of Indonesian districts to natural hazards, determining its driving factors and mapping its variations. The social vulnerability index (SoVI) approach is utilized in this study. Three main driving factors affecting social vulnerability in Indonesia are found: ‘socioeconomic status and infrastructure,’ ‘gender, age and population growth’ and ‘family structure.’ The combination of SoVI with thematic map utilizing ArcView GIS can be used to identify districts with relative high social vulnerability level. The results can support the prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery programs of the impacts of natural hazards in Indonesia. 相似文献
17.
Iran is one of the most seismically active countries of the world located on the Alpine-Himalayan earthquake belt. More than
180,000 people were killed due to earthquakes in Iran during the last five decades. Considering the fact that most Iranians
live in masonry and non-engineered houses, having a comprehensive program for decreasing the vulnerability of society holds
considerable importance. For this reason, loss estimation should be done before an earthquake strikes to prepare proper information
for designing and selection of emergency plans and the retrofitting strategies prior to occurrence of earthquake. The loss
estimation process consists of two principal steps of hazard analysis and vulnerability assessment. After identifying the
earthquake hazard, the first step is to evaluate the vulnerability of residential buildings and lifelines and also the social
and economic impacts of the earthquake scenarios. Among these, residential buildings have specific importance, because their
destruction will disturb the daily life and result in casualties. Consequently, the vulnerability assessment of the buildings
in Iran is important to identify the weak points in the built environment structure. The aim of this research is to prepare
vulnerability curves for the residential buildings of Iran to provide a proper base for estimating probable damage features
by future earthquakes. The estimation may contribute fundamentally for better seismic performance of Iranian societies. After
a brief review of the vulnerability assessment methods in Iran and other countries, through the use of the European Macroseismic
method, a model for evaluating the vulnerability of the Iranian buildings is proposed. This method allows the vulnerability
assessment for numerous sets of buildings by defining the vulnerability curves for each building type based on the damage
observations of previous earthquakes. For defining the vulnerability curves, a building typology classification is presented
in this article, which is representative of Iranian building characteristics. The hazard is described in terms of the macroseismic
intensity and the EMS-98 damage grades have been considered for classifying the physical damage to the buildings. The calculated
vulnerability indexes and vulnerability curves show that for engineered houses there is not any notable difference between
the vulnerability of Iranian and Risk-UE building types. For the non-engineered houses, the vulnerability index of brick and
steel structures is less than the corresponding values of the other unreinforced masonry buildings of Iran. The vulnerability
index of unreinforced and masonry buildings of Iran are larger than the values of the similar types in Risk-UE and so the
Iranian buildings are more vulnerable in this regard. 相似文献
18.
D. K. Yoon 《Natural Hazards》2012,63(2):823-843
The purpose of this study is to examine and compare the methodologies being developed in assessing social vulnerability to natural disasters. Existing vulnerability literature shows that two methods have been used in developing social vulnerability indexes: (1) a deductive approach based on a theoretical understanding of relationships and (2) an inductive approach based on statistical relationships (Adger et al. in New indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich, 2004). Two techniques were also utilized in aggregating social vulnerability indicators: (1) a deductive approach using standardization techniques such as z scores or linear scaling (Wu et al. in Clim Res 22:255?C270, 2002; Chakraborty et al. in Nat Hazards Rev 6(1):23?C33, 2005) and (2) an inductive approach using data-reduction techniques such as factor analysis (Clark et al. in Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 3(1):59?C82, 1998; Cutter et al. Soc Sci Quart 84(2):242?C261, 2003). This study empirically compares deductive and inductive index development and indicator aggregation methods in assessing social vulnerability to natural disasters in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastal areas. The aggregated social vulnerability index is used to examine a relationship with disaster losses in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastal areas. The results show that coastal counties with more vulnerability in terms of social achieved status are positively associated with disaster damages, while variations in the development of the index using deductive and inductive measurement approaches produce different outcomes. 相似文献
19.
Ratiranjan Jena Biswajeet Pradhan Sambit Prasanajit Naik Abdullah M. Alamri 《地学前缘(英文版)》2021,12(3):101110
Earthquake prediction is currently the most crucial task required for the probability, hazard, risk mapping, and mitigation purposes. Earthquake prediction attracts the researchers' attention from both academia and industries. Traditionally, the risk assessment approaches have used various traditional and machine learning models. However, deep learning techniques have been rarely tested for earthquake probability mapping. Therefore, this study develops a convolutional neural network (CNN) model for earthquake probability assessment in NE India. Then conducts vulnerability using analytical hierarchy process (AHP), Venn's intersection theory for hazard, and integrated model for risk mapping. A prediction of classification task was performed in which the model predicts magnitudes more than 4 Mw that considers nine indicators. Prediction classification results and intensity variation were then used for probability and hazard mapping, respectively. Finally, earthquake risk map was produced by multiplying hazard, vulnerability, and coping capacity. The vulnerability was prepared by using six vulnerable factors, and the coping capacity was estimated by using the number of hospitals and associated variables, including budget available for disaster management. The CNN model for a probability distribution is a robust technique that provides good accuracy. Results show that CNN is superior to the other algorithms, which completed the classification prediction task with an accuracy of 0.94, precision of 0.98, recall of 0.85, and F1 score of 0.91. These indicators were used for probability mapping, and the total area of hazard (21,412.94 km2), vulnerability (480.98 km2), and risk (34,586.10 km2) was estimated. 相似文献
20.
Comprehensive risk assessments are fundamental to effective emergency management. These assessments need to identify the range
of hazards (or perils) an entity is exposed to and quantify the specific threats associated with each of those hazards. While
hazard identification is commonly, if not formally, conducted in most circumstances, specific threat analysis is often overlooked
for a variety of reasons, one of which is poor communication with subject matter experts. This poor communication is often
attributable to an adherence to scientific jargon and missed opportunities to simplify information. In Canada, for example,
earthquake hazard calculations have been readily available to engineers and scientists for decades. This hazard information,
however, is expressed in terms of peak ground accelerations (PGA) or spectral accelerations (SA) that are foreign concepts
to most emergency managers, community decision-makers and the public-at-large. There is, therefore, a need to more clearly,
simply and effectively express seismic hazard information to the non-scientific community. This paper provides crustal, sub-crustal
and subduction interface earthquake shaking probabilities, expressed as simple percentages for each of 57 locations across
Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. Calculations present the likelihood of earthquake shaking on Vancouver Island
as the probabilities of exceeding each of three shaking intensity thresholds (“widely felt”; onset of “non-structurally damaging”
shaking; and onset of “structurally damaging” shaking) over four timeframes (10, 25, 50 and 100 years). Results are based
on the latest Geological Survey of Canada hazard models used for the 2010 national building code and are presented in both
tabular and graphic formats. This simplified earthquake hazard information is offered to aid local residents, organizations
and governments in understanding and assessing their risk and to encourage and facilitate sound earthquake preparedness funding
decisions. 相似文献