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1.
This paper reviews the evidence and history of glacier fluctuations during the Little Ice Age (LIA) in the Canadian Rockies. Episodes of synchronous glacier advance occurred in the 12th–13th, early 18th and throughout the 19th centuries. Regional ice cover was probably greatest in the mid-19th century, although in places the early 18th century advance was more extensive. Glaciers have lost over 25% of their area in the 20th century. Selective preservation of the glacier record furnishes an incomplete chronology of events through the 14th–17th centuries. In contrast, varve sequences provide continuous, annually resolved records of sediments for at least the last millennium in some highly glacierized catchments. Such records have been used to infer glacier fluctuations. Evaluation of recent proxy climate reconstructions derived from tree-rings provides independent evidence of climate fluctuations over the last millennium. Most regional glacier advances follow periods of reduced summer temperatures, reconstructed from tree rings particularly ca. 1190–1250, 1280–1340, 1690s and the 1800s. Reconstructed periods of higher precipitation at Banff, Alberta since 1500 are 1515–1550, 1585–1610, 1660–1680 and the 1880s. Glacier advances in the early 1700s, the late 1800s and, in places, the 1950–1970s reflect both increased precipitation and reduced summer temperatures. Negative glacier mass balances from 1976 to 1995 were caused by decreased winter balances. The glacier fluctuation record does not contain a simple climate signal: it is a complex response to several interacting factors that operate at different timescales. Evaluation of climate proxies over the last millennium indicates continuous variability at several superimposed timescales, dominated by decade–century patterns. Only the 19th century shows a long interval of sustained cold summers. This suggests that simplistic concepts of climate over this period should be abandoned and replaced with more realistic records based on continuous proxy data series. The use of the term LIA should be restricted to describing a period of extended glacier cover rather than being used to define a period with specific climate conditions. 相似文献
2.
十八世纪我国长江下游等地区的气候 总被引：9，自引：1，他引：8
关于1500-1900年小冰期气候问题是历史时期气候变化研究中的一个重要课题.本文根据我国晴雨录、古代天气日记、诗文等历史文献资料来讨论小冰期中一个相对温暖时期(十八世纪)的气候.研究表明,这个时期冬季(12-2月)平均气温比现在低1.0℃(杭州、苏州)到1.5℃(南京).但其间还有10年以上时间尺度的起伏波动,在温暖时段,冬季平均气温仍比现在低0.5-1.6℃,在寒冷时段,冬季平均气温比现在低2.1-2.4℃.但十八世纪大部分时期春季反比现在暖些.对湿润状况分析表明,十八世纪长江中下游地区比现代潮湿,反映了当时大气环流与今有较大差别.杭州古风向记录(1723-1769年)分析表明,当时盛行风向与现在不同:冬季西北风频率比现在多,春秋盛行东北风时间比现在长,频率比现在多. 相似文献
3.
北极地区20世纪温度变化趋势的不确定性 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
北极作为地球的冷源之一,对于地球气候系统起着重要的调节作用.本研究通过分析和总结北极地区器测数据和模拟集成结果,以及最近2 000 a来的温度记录,得出如下结果：1）格陵兰冰盖表层大气温度记录显示,20世纪存在1923—1965年和1994年—至今2个相对温暖时段,且前者更为温暖,温度变化幅度远大于北半球的平均温度.2）北极地区20世纪温度上升是客观存在的,其夏季温度和年平均温度呈现一致变化,未发现明显的温度异常信号.3）定量重建的古气候记录显示了北极地区20世纪升温的特征,但不同记录揭示的升温幅度存在差异.与器测结果不同,多条重建记录未能揭示自1994年至今的升温阶段,反映了古气候载体对气候响应的复杂性,揭示出北极地区未来气候变化趋势存在不确定性.在全球变化备受关注的背景下,北极地区对气候变化研究的重要性日益显现,在做出明确结论之前,需要进一步加大研究力度. 相似文献
4.
基于汉江流域雨雪分寸等史料记录的特点,以发生地区、影响程度和持续时间为衡量标准,提出了利用史料重建汉江流域季节旱涝等级序列的方法,重建了1735—1911汉江流域7府（州）四季的旱涝等级序列,据此分析了各府（州）1735—1911年季节上的旱涝变化特征。结果表明：① 汉中府、兴安府、商州和南阳府有更多的春季、夏季、冬季偏旱年,而郧阳府、襄阳府和安陆府有更多的春季、夏季偏涝年和秋季偏旱年;② 夏季和秋季旱涝等级的波动明显,而春季和冬季旱涝等级的波动较小;③ 年代际尺度上来看,汉江流域,1820s—1840s偏涝,1850s、1870s偏旱;④ 影响较大的季节连旱事件多发生在19世纪,而影响较大的季节连涝事件多发生在夏季和秋季。这一研究,对汉江流域定量化气候研究具有一定的价值,也为汉江流域未来的降水变化研究提供了数据支持。 相似文献
5.
This paper outlines the fundamental roles sea ice plays during the spring Arctic climate, and it demonstrates the use of passive microwave remote sensing in measuring climatically important sea ice variables during the spring transitional period. It discusses the theoretical concepts underlying passive microwave remote sensing of sea ice, and it summarizes the historical use of satellite microwave radiometry in the Arctic region. In addition, this paper discusses the derivation of climatically important sea ice variables, including sea ice extent, concentration, multiyear ice fraction, and snow melt onset, with additional comments on the precision and accuracy of the remote sensing estimates. It also discusses interannual trends in sea ice extent and presents interannual trends in snow melt onset dates. Finally, this paper provides a brief discussion on the future directions in passive microwave remote sensing of climatically important sea ice variables during the spring transitional period. 相似文献
6.
《The Professional geographer》2013,65(2):315-322
This paper outlines the fundamental roles sea ice plays during the spring Arctic climate, and it demonstrates the use of passive microwave remote sensing in measuring climatically important sea ice variables during the spring transitional period. It discusses the theoretical concepts underlying passive microwave remote sensing of sea ice, and it summarizes the historical use of satellite microwave radiometry in the Arctic region. In addition, this paper discusses the derivation of climatically important sea ice variables, including sea ice extent, concentration, multiyear ice fraction, and snow melt onset, with additional comments on the precision and accuracy of the remote sensing estimates. It also discusses interannual trends in sea ice extent and presents interannual trends in snow melt onset dates. Finally, this paper provides a brief discussion on the future directions in passive microwave remote sensing of climatically important sea ice variables during the spring transitional period. 相似文献
7.
Based on phenological records extracted from Chinese historical dairies, spring phenological series in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) of China since 1834 is reconstructed. Together with temperature and phenological observation data, the indicating significance of spring phenological series to temperature changes is also analyzed. The results are shown as follows. (1) From 1834 to 1893, spring phenodate in the YRD was fluctuated and gradually delayed, but, advanced greatly at the end of the 19th century. From 1900 to 1990, although the decadal variations were found, no clear multi-decadal trend was detected. From 1990 to 2010, spring phenodate showed significantly advance again. Compared with the mean value for 1977-1996, the latest phenodate occurred in 1893 with 27 days delayed while the earliest phenodate occurred in 2007 with 17 days advanced. (2) The correlation coefficients between spring phenodates and temperatures from December to March and from January to March exceeded -0.75 and -0.80, respectively, indicating that our phenodate series well presents the long-term changes of winter and early spring (especially from January to March) tem-peratures. These results provide important basic data for the long-term integrated tempera-ture reconstruction over China in the future work. 相似文献
8.
清代华北地区冬半年温度变化重建与分析 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
利用清代地方志中的异常初、终霜记载,根据器测时期华北初、终霜的早、晚与温度变化的关系,重建了1646-1910 年华北地区时间分辨率为5 年的冬半年温度距平序列,分析了期间的冷暖变化特征.结果表明：清代华北地区气候以寒冷为主要特征,冬半年温度平均较现代(1951-1980 年)约低0.55℃,最冷5 年(1656-1660 年)较现代约低1.42℃;清代华北地区冬半年气候存在“冷-暖-冷”的世纪波动,两个寒冷时段起讫时间分别为1646-1700 年(平均较现代约低0.77℃)和1781-1910 年(平均较现代约低0.58℃),1701-1780 年虽然相对较暖,但冬半年温度仍较现代略低(平均较现代约低0.36℃);从更高时间分辨率看,清代冷暖时段内同样存在较小的波动,清后期寒冷时段出现了两个“冷谷”. 相似文献
9.
Three observational data sets are used to construct a continuous record (1850-2001) of April ice edge position in the Barents Sea: two sets of Norwegian ice charts (one from 1850 to 1949 and the other from 1966 to 2001) and Soviet aircraft reconnaissance ice extent charts from 1950 to 1966. The 152-year April ice extent series is subdivided into three sub-periods: 1850-1899, 1900-1949 and 1950-2001. For each of these study sub-periods, a mean April ice edge and a set of anomalies (differences in position between a given April and the mean April ice edge) are computed. The calculations show the mean ice edge position retreated north-eastward over the 152-year period, with the greater retreat seen in the changes from the 1850-1899 sub-period to the 1900-1949 sub-period. The distribution of the standard deviation of the ice edge anomaly over the linear distance along the mean ice edge shows no substantial difference between any of the three periods of the study. Within each study period, the maximum variation is observed in the sector bounded by the 25°E and 49° E meridians, which covers the main pathway of the warmer water flow from the Norwegian Sea. 相似文献
10.
粮食作物的收成丰歉与气候要素的关联是研究历史时期气候变化社会影响的重要切入点。利用清代地方志中的收成丰歉记录,以语义差异法对收成等级进行区分,重建了1736-1911年华北地区秋粮丰收和歉收指数序列,定量分析收成变化特征及其与同期温度和降水变化的关系,并对比以往常用的官方收成分数奏报记录,探讨地方志资料在重建历史粮食收成变化中的优势和不足。结果表明：① 地方志中的歉收记录相比丰收记录更为可靠,重建的歉收指数序列可在相当程度上描述总体收成的变化,就宏观趋势而言,19世纪歉收风险相比18世纪显著增加。② 歉收指数序列与10年、5年尺度的温度变化均呈显著负相关关系,反映气候转冷可显著提升歉收风险;在年际尺度上,歉收指数序列与降水呈显著负相关,与旱灾指数序列的相关系数则达到0.71（p < 0.001）,体现出极端旱灾对于华北粮食收成的严重威胁。③ 地方志中的收成记录虽在量化精度上不如奏报,但其歉收记录对于极端减产年份的反映更为准确,两者在实际应用中存在一定的互补性。以上结论有助于改进利用历史文献资料研究过去气候变化影响的技术手段,并深化气候变化对过去农业生产系统影响规律的科学认识。 相似文献
11.
Studies of the past climate variation on the Tibetan Plateau(TP) are currently limited in number and low in density and temporal resolution. We investigated the climate condition from about 400 years before present(B.P.) in the central TP at the shore of Co(means "lake") Nag using aeolian sediments. A 2.7-m sand profile with 57 sediment samples and six optically stimulated luminescence(OSL) samples were studied through grain-size analysis, geochemical elements and parameters, and depositional rate estimation. A previous assumption was verified that sand deposition at the shore of Lake Co Nag originated from hills to the east. Two significant wet periods between 90–140 and about 380 years B.P. were indicated by the variation of element profiles and sediment depositional rates. Aeolian activity is sensitive to variations from different seasonal changing patterns of climate factors in the study area, and aeolian sediments respond differently to climate conditions during the cold little ice age(LIA) and the warm 20 th century. Present day dry seasons of winter and spring might be much warmer and drier compared to seasons of 400 years ago although summer precipitation has increased, resulting in significantly more aeolian activity and higher depositional rate(about 6 times compared to 380–240 years ago) of sandy sediments. Aeolian problems like blown-sand deposition and desertification may be worse in a projected warming future in the central TP as well as other cold and high altitude regions. Our results suggest an agreement with environmental evolution during the little ice age and the 20 th century in a broader scale on the TP. 相似文献
12.
17111911年昆明雨季降水的分级重建与初步研究 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
利用清代档案和其他文献资料,重建了17111911年间昆明雨季降水的分级序列。在重建中采取了纠偏措施,有效地解决了资料存在的系统偏差问题。对重建序列的分析表明,昆明降水存在较大的波动,可以分为4个大的时段。总的来说,18世纪的雨季降水略少于19世纪。和喜马拉雅山区达索普冰芯恢复的印度季风降水序列的比较表明,19世纪70年代是两个序列中降水量最多的10年,且19世纪后半期同是两个序列波动较大的时期。但也有不一致的地方,说明两地降水机制有所差别。同时太阳活动的世纪周期对昆明的雨季降水有影响。对中间分辨率资料的开拓利用,有助于拓展高分辨率历史气候序列重建的范围。 相似文献
13.
藏南羊卓雍错沉积物元素地球化学记录的过去2000年环境变化 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
以青藏高原南部的羊卓雍错（简称羊湖）沉积岩芯为研究对象,以较可靠的年代数据（ 210Pb和AMS 14C交叉定年）为框架,基于高分辨率的元素地球化学记录,通过数理统计分析方法提取环境信息,结合粒度和磁化率,重建该地区过去2000年来的环境变化。结果显示,该区黑暗时代冷期（DCAP）和小冰期（LIA）气候较为寒冷,降水量较高;而中世纪暖期（MWP）和现代暖期（CWP）气候较为温暖,降水量较低,气候具有冷湿—暖干的特征。其中,重建的温度显示,中世纪暖期的温暖程度似乎持平甚至超过20世纪暖期;小冰期期间可能存在一次百年尺度的温暖事件,而17世纪和18世纪可能是过去2000中最寒冷的一段时期。分析发现,过去2000年以来青藏高原南部存在着冷湿—暖干的气候模式;过去2000年青藏高原南部地区温度的变化可能主要受到太阳辐射的影响,而小冰期期间西风环流的南移和增强可能是导致区域降水增加的重要因素。另外,该时期羊湖的湖泊水位的变化受温度和降水共同控制：当温度降低,降水增加时,湖泊水位上升,反之亦然。 相似文献
14.
Krista M. Mckinzey John F. Orwin Tom Bradwell 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2004,86(4):319-335
Little Ice Age (LIA) moraines along the margins of Skálafellsjökull and Heinabergsjökull, two neighbouring outlet glaciers flowing from the Vatnajökull ice‐cap, have been re‐dated to test the reliability of different lichenometric approaches. During 2003, 12 000 lichens were measured on 40 moraine fragments at Skálafellsjökull and Heinabergsjökull to provide surface age proxies. The results are revealing. Depending on the chosen method of analysis, Skálafellsjökull either reached its LIA maximum in the early 19th century (population gradient) or the late 19th century (average of five largest lichens), whereas the LIA maximum of Heinabergsjökull occurred by the mid‐19th century (population gradient) or late‐19th century (average of 5 largest lichens). Discrepancies (c. 80 years for Skálafellsjökull and c. 40 years for Heinabergsjökull) suggest that the previously cited AD 1887 LIA maxima for both glaciers should be reassessed. Dates predicted by the lichen population gradient method appear to be the most appropriate, as mounting evidence from other geochronological reconstructions and sea‐ice records throughout Iceland tends to support an earlier LIA glacier maximum (late 18th to mid‐19th century) and probably reflects changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation. These revised chronologies shed further light on the precise timing of the Icelandic LIA glacier maximum, whilst improving our understanding of glacier‐climate interactions in the North Atlantic. 相似文献
15.
Atle Nesje Svein Olaf Dahl John A. Matthews Mark S. Berrisford 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2001,25(3):329-342
To extend the historical record of river floods in southern Norway, a 572-cm long sediment core was retrieved from 42 m water depth in Atnsjøen, eastern Norway. The sediment core contains 30 light gray clastic sediment layers interpreted to have been deposited during river floods in the snow/ice free season. In the upper 123 cm of the core, four prominent flood layers occur. The youngest of these overlap with the historical record. The thickest (flood layer 5) possibly reflects a general increase in river-flood activity as a result of the post-Medieval climate deterioration (lower air temperatures, thicker and more long-lasting snow cover, and more frequent rain/snow storms) associated with the Little Ice Age. The most pronounced pre-historic flood layers in the core were, according to an age model based on linear regression between eleven bulk AMS radiocarbon dates, deposited around 4135, 3770, 3635, 3470, 3345, 2690, 2595, 2455, 2415, 2255, 2230, 2150, 2120, 1870, 1815, 1665, 1640, 1480, 1400, 1380, 1290, 935, 885, 670, 655 and 435 cal. BP (BP = AD 1950). The mean return period of the river flood layers is, according to the linear regression age model, ~ 150 ± 30 cal. yr (mean ± 1 S.E.). 相似文献
16.
The least annual precipitation in the western interior of North America occurs in the northern Great Plains, including an area that encompasses parts of south-eastern Alberta, south-western Saskatchewan and eastern Montana. During 1999–2001, most climate stations in this region had record low precipitation. This paper examines this three-year drought in the context of historical climate records from Medicine Hat, Alberta and Havre, Montana and summer (June–July) and annual (August–July) precipitation reconstructed from standardized tree-ring widths (residual chronologies) from Pinus contorta (lodgepole pine) sampled in the Cypress Hills of Alberta and Saskatchewan and the Bears Paw Mountains of north-central Montana. Drought is operationally defined as precipitation in the lower 10th and 20th percentiles. Plots of reconstructed precipitation and cumulative departure from median values indicate a shift in climate variability prior to the twentieth century, when EuroCanadians settled in this region. The eighteenth and nineteenth centuries are characterized by sustained periods of progressively wetter and drier conditions, including prolonged drought. Various archival sources document the significant impacts of these prolonged droughts. While drought was frequent in the twentieth century, it tended to be of short duration and the impacts also were ameliorated by intervening periods of relatively high precipitation. Increasing aridity in response to global warming could expose a larger area of the northern Great Plains to the impacts of drought. 相似文献
17.
筛选和利用中国东南地区（大致范围为105o E以东、30o N以南）16个站点的多种气候代用指标序列,重建了东南地区过去2 000年以来的气温与降水变化过程,并探讨了其可能的影响机制。研究发现,东南地区气温集成序列与其他学者重建的中国温度序列、北半球温度序列等均具有较好的可比性,一些百年尺度的典型特征气候时期,如黑暗时代冷期、中世纪暖期、近代小冰期以及20世纪现代暖期等均有显著的体现;降水集成序列显示东南地区在过去2 000年中干湿阶段性变化较为明显,特别是在中世纪暖期时降水整体上较为偏多,而在小冰期的前半段降水偏少、后半段降水偏多。总体来看,近2 000年来我国东南地区的气温与降水变化经历了较为多样的水热组合过程。值得指出地是,东南地区降水集成序列与已有的中国北方地区多条降水重建序列相互间可比性较弱,反映了中国东部季风区由南到北降水变化及其影响机制具有很大的区域性差异。分析认为,大尺度海—气相互作用、火山活动以及太阳辐射量变化等对我国东南地区过去2 000年的气候环境变化具有显著影响。 相似文献
18.
LIU Haolong DAI Junhu YAN Junhui HE Fanneng GE Quansheng MU Chongxing 《地理学报(英文版)》2020,30(10):1664-1680
We collected and verified documentary records of the latest spring snowing dates(LSSD) in Hangzhou during Southern Song Dynasty. Furtherly, the statistical correlation between this proxy and February–April mean temperature in Hangzhou was examined, and samples later than the perennial mean of the LSSD during Southern Song Dynasty were transformed into the decadal mean of LSSD by means of Boltzmann function. General characteristics of this reconstructed LSSD series with a 10-year temporal resolution was analyzed, and it was also compared with other documentary evidences and reconstructed climate series in China for the period 1131–1270. The results and discussion suggested that:(1) Records of the LSSD in Hangzhou during Southern Song Dynasty did not refer to ice pellets and graupels, which had an explicit climate significance(–0.34℃/10 d, R2=0.37, p0.001). However, when this proxy is used to reconstruct temperature changes, all dates should be converted into proleptic Gregorian style and meet the same criterion of "true Qi" as the Chinese traditional calendar after 1929.(2) The decadal mean of LSSD can be effectively estimated by using the forefront of LSSD in the decade on the basis of Boltzmann function, whose extrapolation has a lesser uncertainty than those on the basis of linear models or polynomial models.(3) The spring climate in Hangzhou during 1131–1270 was almost as warm as the period 1951–1980. At the centennial scale, this period can be divided into two phases: the cold 1131–1170 and the warm 1171–1270. In the latter, 1181–1200 and 1221–1240 were two cold intervals at the multi-decadal scale.(4) The reconstructed LSSD series was consistent well with other documentary evidences and reconstructed climate series in China for 1131–1270, which may reflect the influence on the climate over most regions of China imposed by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO). 相似文献
19.
全球升温导致区域干湿格局转变,千年尺度中全新世暖期和百年尺度中世纪暖期可以为探究现代的气候趋势提供历史相似型。通过湖相沉积、冰芯、孢粉、树轮等古气候记录和PMIP3/CMIP5计划的古气候模型模拟数据对比分析,结果表明,祁连山地区中全新世暖期（7.2—6.0 ka BP）东亚夏季风强盛,降水较多,气候温暖湿润;中世纪暖期（950—1250 AD）与小冰期表现为暖干—冷湿气候机制。现代观测数据显示,祁连山地区呈现暖湿化,但现代的气候机制与自然因子主导下暖期的响应机制差异较大,表明了人类活动对自然发展下气候环境的影响。因此,自然因素与人类活动共同作用是准确预测研究区未来干湿格局的基础。 相似文献
20.
Niels Reeh 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》1999,81(4):735-742
The future contribution to sea level change from the large ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica is composed of two terms: (i) a background trend determined by the past climate and dynamic history of the ice sheets on a range of time scales (decadal, millennial or even longer); and (ii) a rise/fall related to future climate change, whether due to anthropogenic effects or natural climate variability. The accelerating development of remote sensing techniques for monitoring ice sheet behaviour, and the use of high-resolution general circulation models to estimate temperature and precipitation changes are likely to result in improved estimates of the sensitivity of ice sheet mass balance to climate change and thereby to narrow down the uncertainty of contribution (ii). Contribution (i) is much more difficult to assess, because the mass balance displays large temporal variability on year-to-year and even on decadal time scales that masks the long-term trend. So, although modern remote sensing techniques enable accurate measurement of ice sheet surface elevation change, the mass changes derived from such measurements, even if performed over a period of several years, might just reflect a statistical fluctuation around the long-term background trend, which we must know in order to assess the future ice sheet contribution to sea level change on century and longer time scales. The measured volume changes must therefore be evaluated on the background of short- and long-term accumulation rates (e.g. determined from ice cores and high-resolution ice radar) and dynamic model studies of ice sheet evolution on century, millennial and longer time scales. The problems are illustrated by using the Greenland ice sheet as an example. 相似文献