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1.
Climatic variations and changes regulate arboreal growth. In Estonia, the tree‐ring growth variability of coniferous and deciduous trees has been linked with various climatic variables in different parts of the country. However, the dendroclimatic signals of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H.Karst.) have not been explored across the region. Here we compare the growth variability of this species, growing under various site conditions in Estonia, with records of temperature, precipitation, and indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation over a period of 50 years (1956–2005). Western chronologies correlated positively and significantly (p<0.01) with early‐summer (June) precipitation, while eastern chronologies showed positive and significant (p<0.05) correlation with mid‐winter (January) precipitation. Moreover, the eastern chronologies correlated positively and significantly (p<0.05) with the North Atlantic Oscillation index in January. First, our results indicated that the previously established geobotanical division, rather than forest site types, most probably explains the spatial patterns in spruce growth variability. Second, our findings agreed with the late Quaternary pollen studies showing that the vigour of spruce is limited in the western forests by a combination of climatic (i.e. summer moisture) and edaphic factors. Third, our results complement those of previous investigations, suggesting that the impacts and threats the changing climate will pose on spruce may be different in western and eastern Estonia, with more severe effects envisaged in the western part of the region through drought‐induced physiological stress.  相似文献   

2.
《自然地理学》2013,34(6):520-535
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has significant climatological and ecological effects in northwestern North America. Its possible effects and their modification by feedbacks are examined in the forest-tundra ecotone in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. Tree ring samples were collected to estimate establishment dates in 10 quadrats. Age-diameter regressions were used to estimate the ages of uncored trees. The temporal pattern of establishment and survival was compared to the pattern of the PDO. A wave of establishment began in the mid-1940s, rose to a peak rate in the mid-1970s, and dropped precipitously beginning ca. 1980 to near zero for the 1990s. The period of establishment primarily coincided with the negative phase of the PDO, but the establishment and survival pattern is not correlated with the PDO index. The pattern indicates a period during which establishment was possible and was augmented by positive feedback from surviving trees. Snow may be the most important factor in the feedback, but studies indicate that its effects vary locally. Spatially differentiated analyses of decadal or longer periodicity may elucidate responses to climatic variation.  相似文献   

3.
High-resolution terrestrial records of Holocene climate from Southern California are scarce. Moreover, there are no records of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) variability, a major driver of decadal to multi-decadal climate variability for the region, older than 1,000 years. Recent research on Lake Elsinore, however, has shown that the lake’s sediments hold excellent potential for paleoenvironmental analysis and reconstruction. New 1-cm contiguous grain size data reveal a more complex Holocene climate history for Southern California than previously recognized at the site. A modern comparison between the twentieth century PDO index, lake level change, San Jacinto River discharge, and percent sand suggests that sand content is a reasonable, qualitative proxy for PDO-related, hydrologic variability at both multi-decadal-to-centennial as well as event (i.e. storm) timescales. A depositional model is proposed to explain the sand-hydrologic proxy. The sand-hydrologic proxy data reveal nine centennial-scale intervals of wet and dry climate throughout the Holocene. Percent total sand values >1.5 standard deviation above the 150–9,700 cal year BP average are frequent between 9,700 and 3,200 cal year BP (n = 41), but they are rare from 3,200 to 150 cal year BP (n = 6). This disparity is interpreted as a change in the frequency of exceptionally wet (high discharge) years and/or changes in large storm activity. A comparison to other regional hydrologic proxies (10 sites) shows more then occasional similarities across the region (i.e. 6 of 9 Elsinore wet intervals are present at >50% of the comparison sites). Only the early Holocene and the Little Ice Age intervals, however, are interpreted consistently across the region as uniformly wet (≥80% of the comparison sites). A comparison to two ENSO reconstructions indicates little, if any, correlation to the Elsinore data, suggesting that ENSO variability is not the predominant forcing of Holocene climate in Southern California.  相似文献   

4.
The Chilean Lake District (38–42°S) is strongly influenced by Southern westerlies-driven precipitations. At 40°S Lago Puyehue provides high resolution sedimentation rates (∼1–2 mm/yr) suitable for annual climate reconstruction. Several short and long sediment cores were collected in this lake. Their analysis aim at a better understanding of climate mechanisms related to ENSO in this part of the world. The recognition of ENSO related periodicities and their stability is studied through the analysis of two short varved cores collected from underflow and interflow key sites. According to varve chronology controlled by 137Cs and 210Pb profiles and chronostratigraphical markers, the short core from underflow site (PU-I) spans 294 ± 18 years and the core in the interflow site (PU-II) covers 592 ± 9 years. Several methods of spectral analysis were applied on the total varve thickness to identify potential periodicities in the signal. Blackman–Tuckey, Maximum Entropy, Multi-Taper Methods (MTM) and singular spectrum analysis were applied on the whole record. In addition, evolutive MTM and wavelet analyses allow to identify temporal influence of some periodicities. In the PU-I studied interval (AD 1700–2000), a period at ∼3.0 years appears in a large part of the interval, mostly in the recent part. Periods at ∼5.2 and ∼23 years also show up. PU-II record (AD 1400–2000) displays the most robust periodicities at around 15, 9, 4.4, 3.2 and 2.4 years. These periodicities are in good agreement with the sub-decadal periods identified by Dean and Kemp (2004) and linked to the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Differences in the recorded periodicities between PU-I and PU-II sites are consistent with different sedimentation processes in the lake. According to climate instrumental data for the last 20 years, varves in PU-I site are mostly related to fluvial dynamics and regional climate factors, i.e., precipitation, temperature and wind. In PU-II site, varves increment is related to both regional and global climate forcing factors, i.e., El Nino Southern Oscillation. The evolutive MTM analysis and the wavelet analysis suggest a striking break in the periodicities at around AD 1820. Finally relationships between El Nino and longer term climate phase like the Little Ice Age (LIA) are also assessed. This is the seventh in a series of eight papers published in this special issue dedicated to the 17,900 year multi-proxy lacustrine record of Lago Puyehue, Chilean Lake District. The papers in this special issue were collected by M. De Batist, N. Fagel, M.-F. Loutre and E. Chapron.  相似文献   

5.
To make predictions of future climate it is necessary to understand the past climate—temperature as well as precipitation. While a wealth of temperature proxies exist from northern latitudes, there is still a lack of information about past precipitation variability. Here we present a 300‐year‐long tree‐ring width chronology from xeric‐site Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Tyresta National Park, east central Sweden. Tree‐ring widths were compared to the long observed temperature and precipitation records from Stockholm during 1786–2000. Analyses of the climate/growth relationship showed that, in general, May–June precipitation had a dominating influence on pine growth. However, during dry periods, negative responses to June–July temperature were stronger, especially evident in the late nineteenth century. Periods of below‐average growth were associated with dry conditions in May–June, but occasionally periods of wet and cool summers also produced narrow rings. Periods of above‐average growth were linked to wet, but sporadically also cool and dry, early summers. The years between 1815 and 1833 appear to be particularly dry in the 300‐year context. Since growth anomalies are found in other Swedish drought‐sensitive tree‐ring chronologies during this period, it is likely that this dry period had a regional extent. This is the first tree‐ring chronology from southern Sweden that provides multi‐century information of past summer drought and moisture variability with high resolution and the study will add important information regarding past climate variability in southern Sweden.  相似文献   

6.
Precipitation and temperature in Florida responds to climate teleconnections from both the Pacific and Atlantic regions. In this region south of Lake Okeechobee, encompassing NWS Climate Divisions 5, 6, and 7, modern movement of surface waters are managed by the South Florida Water Management District and the US Army Corps of Engineers for flood control, water supply, and Everglades restoration within the constraints of the climatic variability of precipitation and evaporation. Despite relatively narrow, low-relief, but multi-purposed land separating the Atlantic Ocean from the Gulf of Mexico, South Florida has patterns of precipitation and temperature that vary substantially on spatial scales of 101–102 km. Here we explore statistically significant linkages to precipitation and temperature that vary seasonally and over small spatial scales with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Over the period from 1952 to 2005, ENSO teleconnections exhibited the strongest influence on seasonal precipitation. The Multivariate ENSO Index was positively correlated with winter (dry season) precipitation and explained up to 34 % of dry season precipitation variability along the southwest Florida coast. The AMO was the most influential of these teleconnections during the summer (wet season), with significant positive correlations to South Florida precipitation. These relationships with modern climate parameters have implications for paleoclimatological and paleoecological reconstructions, and future climate predictions from the Greater Everglades system.  相似文献   

7.
This paper examines the role that representatives of the London Missionary Society in central southern Africa during the nineteenth century may have played in the development of geographical debates concerning the long-term desiccation of the African continent. Observations on climate included within missionary documents are used to reconstruct a chronology of intra-decadal climatic variability for the period 1815–1900. This reveals six drought periods and seven wet phases that affected large areas of the region, but identifies no evidence for progressive desiccation. The chronology is then used as a framework within which to view missionary perspectives on drought and desiccation. Major influences upon the development of desiccationist theory appear to include the prevalence of contemporary moral economic explanations of climatic variability, as well as the uptake and acceptance of indigenous understanding of climate change. Significantly, many of the key observations by eminent missionaries used as supporting evidence for progressive desiccation are identified as having been made during periods of severe drought. This is used to suggest that the most widely propagated evidence for desiccation may, therefore, simply be the end-product of periods of short-term drought rather than long-term climatic deterioration.  相似文献   

8.
《自然地理学》2013,34(3):177-191
Incidences of dense fog have been gradually disappearing from large cities around the world. In Los Angeles, the climate records show that dense fog may become another extinct specie. In the last 50 years, dense fog has been reduced by about half at two, busy, coastal Los Angeles airports. Not one, but two factors, can be seen as possible causes. Both the downtown Los Angeles urban heat island and the city's air pollution clean-up show a significant relationship to decreasing fog. This study correlates monthly and annual dense fog data recorded at Los Angeles International and Long Beach International airports since the 1950s with downtown Los Angeles temperature and particulate air pollution data. The El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) values also explain interannual dense fog variability, with PDO showing a stronger relationship. Coastal sea surface temperatures also closely follow dense fog frequencies. Recent coastal cooling, since 1998, associated with a shift to the cool phase of PDO, has been associated with a rise in dense fog incidences.  相似文献   

9.
黄凯  杨保 《中国沙漠》2012,32(3):806-805
对现有的区域曲线标准化方法（RCS）进行改进,提出区域生长曲线标准化方法(Regional Growth Curve Standardization, RGCS),以尽多保留树轮序列中的低频气候信息。利用祁连山中段的树轮样本,分别建立了STD、RCS和RGCS年表,并将RGCS年表与STD、RCS年表进行对比分析。结果表明：RGCS年表保留低频信息能力最强,RCS年表次之,STD年表则相对较弱,且RGCS年表有着更好的对温度信号的响应能力。  相似文献   

10.
This is a study of an extremely good outcrop of 1745 varves inthe Villarroya Pliocene Basin (Spain). The thicknesses of the light and darklayers, which were obtained from enlarged photograph negatives, are dealt withseparately, and three time series, of light, dark, and the sum of both layers,are performed. Periodicities of about 12, 6–7 and 2–3 years havebeen obtained. The origin of the recurrent behaviour of the sediments withthese periods could be related to natural phenomena like sunspot cycles, ElNiño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) andQuasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO), as these phenomena are capable of modulatingthe climate in this frequency band. From our point of view, there could be aclose relationship between sedimentation in the Villarroya Basin and thesenatural phenomena, which is moved through climate. The light layers record therun-off of gastropods, ostracods and charophytes from a seasonal productivitycycle, and are generated during late summer and autumn. It seems clear that theclimatic information provided by these cycles corresponds mainly to summertime, which would be translated into a variation of the light layer thicknessdue to a more or less intense development of the flora and fauna, being thickerin years of higher temperatures and thinner in years of lower temperatures.Considering the results, we would suggest that the sedimentation of thesematerials in the Pliocene was driven by solar activity or/and ENSO, NAO, andQBO phenomena. Nowadays these phenomena produce rainfall and temperaturechanges with the cyclicities shown in this study and we think they could haveoperated in the same way in Pliocene times.  相似文献   

11.
Recent decades, particularly since the late 1970s, have witnessed a rapid retreat of glaciers in the tropical Andes. We compiled the changes in glacier surfaces along the eastern cordilleras of the tropical Andes of Peru and Bolivia since the early 1980s from the literature. Water levels from two Brazilian river basins in the Amazon basin (one (Madeira River) glacially fed by meltwater from the Andes and the other (Envira River) non‐glacially fed), were analysed for a 30‐year period between 1985?2014. Furthermore, precipitation data near these two basins were also analysed in order to understand the differential contributions of glacier melting and rainfall. Variations in the water levels from the glacially fed Madeira River showed that some years were associated with higher water levels even when the precipitation remained low during the corresponding season (May‐October). This observation was common when El Niño events occurred during the positive phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Water levels in glacier‐fed Madeira River were slightly higher during the periods where El Niño and warm PDO co‐occurred. On the other hand, water levels in the Envira River were precipitation dependent; water levels were higher when the rainfall was high.  相似文献   

12.
Climate variability in the Pacific basin has been attributed to large‐scale oceanic‐atmospheric modulations (e.g. the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) that dominate the weather of adjacent land areas. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and north Pacific index are thought to be indicators of modulations and events in the northeast Pacific. In this study we find that variations in the PDO are reflected in the terminus position of glaciers on Mt Baker, in the northern Cascade Range, Washington. The initiation of retreat and advance phases of six glaciers persisted for 20–30 years, which relate to PDO regime shifts. The result of this study agrees with previous studies that link glacier mass balance changes to local precipitation anomalies and processes in the Pacific. However, the use of mass balance changes and glacier terminus variation for identification of regime shifts in climate indices is complicated by the lack of standardized measuring techniques, differing response times of individual glaciers to changes in climate, geographic and morphometric factors, and the use of assorted climate indices with different domains and time‐scales in the Pacific for comparison.  相似文献   

13.
新疆洪旱灾害与大尺度气候强迫因子的联系   总被引：13，自引：6，他引：7  
通过对新疆洪灾灾害历史资料和太阳黑子、ENSO事件年数据以及北大西洋涛动指数的分析,表明在太阳黑子极低值年或不活跃年,新疆易发生重大洪灾,而在太阳黑子低值年或相对不活跃年,新疆也易发生重大旱灾。近200a来,新疆重大洪旱灾害绝大部分都发生在太阳黑子的低谷时期。ENSO事件对新疆夏季降水的影响效应明显。因而该事件对新疆的洪旱灾害也产生了影响。对近50年来灾害统计资料分析显示,与拉尼娜年相比,在厄尔尼诺年新疆更易发生洪旱灾害。20世纪后半段新疆洪旱灾害指数与北大西洋涛动指数进行对比可以发现．夏季NAO指数与新疆洪水灾害之间存在大致上的反相关系。而冬季NAO指数与新疆干旱灾害之间存在比较明显的反相关系。  相似文献   

14.
 通过在祁连山东部互助地区采集的油松样本,建立标准树轮（STD）年表,重建该地区近188 a上年8月到当年6月的降水,解释方差为48.8%。根据重建结果,历史上的湿润时期有1850s—1860s、1930s末—1950s、1970s—1990s以及2000s;干旱时期有1830s—1840s、1900s、1920s,其中1920s的干旱在北方大范围内普遍存在。根据本文重建结果与周围地区降水和PDSI重建比较,发现该地区降水变化与贺兰山地区干湿变化最为相近,尤其是1940s以前,在1940s之后与青海省德令哈和祁连山中西部地区的重建结果更为相似。因此推测,祁连山东部地区在1940s前后受不同的气候类型主导。  相似文献   

15.
Exactly dated ring-width chronologies derived from Pyrenean oak and sweet chestnut trees growing in northern Extremadura, Spain, were evaluated for their potential as proxies for regional precipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation variability. The relationships among tree-rings, instrumental climatic records, and three versions of the NAO index were computed for different time subperiods over the last century. The results indicate that tree-ring records reflect, with variable intensity, both short-term and long-term variations in climate. Multiple correlation and regression analysis revealed that summer precipitation appeared to be the major factor affecting tree growth at inter-annual timescales. Moreover, since fluctuations in accumulated variability in annual rainfall over southwest Iberia are controlled by winter precipitation, the accumulated rainfall (August of the year n -1 to July of year n ) and winter NAO indices are also strongly correlated with tree-ring records at interdecadal timescales. This relationship appears to be especially strong during the second half of the 20th century, which is consistent with an increase of the NAO signal in the annual precipitation during the later part of the century. These results indicate that tree-rings from western Iberia are potential proxies of the NAO variability, useful to be included in palaeoclimatic model studies.  相似文献   

16.
根据宜昌站、汉口站和大通站的径流量数据,运用M-K检验和小波分析等方法,对1900年以来长江流域径流量的趋势和周期变化进行分析,探究径流量变化对厄尔尼诺?南方涛动（ENSO）和太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）的响应。结果表明：1900 年以来长江流域径流量呈显著的减少趋势,并具有2~8 a的年际周期变化和14~17 a的年代际周期变化。流域径流量与ENSO具有相同的2~8 a周期变化,在El Ni?o发生期,径流量较低,在La Ni?a发生期,径流量较高。14~17 a的周期变化与PDO相关,在暖位相期径流量偏少,在冷位相期径流量偏多。PDO影响着ENSO和径流量之间的相关性,在暖位相期,El Ni?o对径流量的影响增强,在冷位相期,La Ni?a对径流量的影响增强。因此,在分析和预测流域径流量长时间尺度上的变化时要综合考虑ENSO和PDO的影响。  相似文献   

17.
The reliability of paleoclimatic inferences from lake-sediment records rests on the understanding of how various sediment indicators respond to environmental changes. Despite the recent proliferation of paleoclimatic records, only a limited number of studies have rigorously evaluated potential indicators by comparing lake-sediment records with instrumental weather data. We analyzed annually laminated sediments of the past 100 years from a lake in north-central Minnesota for a suite of variables commonly used for climatic reconstructions. Results were compared with time series of climatic or climate-derived variables, as well as with indices of climate modes thought to influence the regional climate of the midwestern United States. The oxygen-isotopic composition of calcite (δ18Oc) shows trends similar to those of effective moisture (as measured by precipitation [P] minus actual evapotranspiration [AET], P-AET, and the Palmer Drought Severity Index [PDSI]), with high δ18Oc values generally corresponding to low P-AET and low PDSI. δ18Oc also exhibits striking correspondence with the index of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) but it lags behind PDO by 3 years. Elevated δ18Oc values during the warm PDO phase probably reflect warm and dry climatic conditions in the midwestern US, especially during winter months. The carbon-isotopic composition of calcite (δ13Cc) shows some similarity with δ18Oc but also displays stratigraphic patterns resembling those of lake-productivity indicators, including biogenic silica, inverse of inorganic carbon, ratio of organic carbon to nitrogen, and to a lesser extent, organic carbon. δ13Cc is correlated with mean annual air temperature (MAAT) and the index of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), probably because elevated MAAT stimulates the rate of algal carbon uptake, lengthens growing season, and/or enhances CO2 degassing. Varves are typically thicker during periods of lower δ18Oc and higher P-AET (or PDSI) values, because wet climatic conditions probably increase nutrient availability and lake productivity. Gray-scale intensity does not co-vary with any of the above climatic variables or climate-mode indices. These results demonstrate the utility of lake-sediment analyses for reconstructing temperature, drought, and large-scale climatic modes at Steel Lake. However, application to down-core reconstructions may be compromised by a number of factors, including the site specificity and non-stationarity of such relationships.  相似文献   

18.
The influence of climate associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on tree growth in the central Colorado Front Range is investigated through the analysis of two high altitude tree-ring chronologies. Dendrochronological techniques are used to determine if ENSO-related climatic effects are detectable in tree-ring width patterns in the central Colorado Front Range. The form of the tree-growth response is identified and the variability of the influence of these events on tree growth over time is investigated. Results indicate that tree growth in this area does respond to ENSO events, but the response varies with species and type of event. El Niño-influenced climate tends to result in larger tree rings the year of or year following the event, while La Niña-influenced climate tends to result in smaller rings the year after the event, reflecting spring moisture conditions. Trees have a more consistent response to La Niña events, but El Niño events seem to have a greater effect on extremes in growth. The relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and tree growth has varied over time, probably because of the fact that ENSO events, characterized by the SOI, vary in magnitude and amplitude. [Key words: ENSO, dendrochronology, Colorado Front Range.]  相似文献   

19.
本研究利用1979—2012年欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的ORAP5(Ocean Reanalysis Pilot 5)海洋/海冰再分析资料和ERA-Interim气象再分析资料,采用回归分析方法,分1979—1998年和1999—2012年两个时间段探讨了南半球热带外地区气候变化对两种不同形态ENSO的响应特征。结果表明,南半球热带外区域气候在1999年前后两个时段对ENSO的响应表现出了较大的年代际变化特征。1979—1998年南半球热带外气候变量对Nio3指数在时间上的相关性和空间上的响应强度都普遍大于Nio4指数,说明这一时段东部型ENSO对南半球热带外区域气候变化的影响要更强一些。在1999—2012年,不同形态ENSO与气候变量的相关性大小并无明显的规律,而且空间响应场的差异性并不大。海平面气压、风场和气温对ENSO变化的响应在南半球冬季表现最为强烈,在夏季最弱。三者在1999—2012年秋季对Nio3指数和Nio4指数的响应场中出现了纬向三波数结构。1999—2012年冬季,有异于海平面气压和风场,在罗斯海和阿蒙森海海域海表气温对Nio4变化的正响应明显强于对Nio3的响应,该特征在混合层温度中也有体现,表明海表气温随ENSO的变化受海洋特征变化影响较大。混合层深度和混合层温度的响应场之间存在很大的相关性,混合层温度响应在秋季表现最强,春季最弱,混合层深度响应与之相反。在1979—1998年,海冰密集度对不同Nio指数变化的响应差异主要出现在海冰结冰季节,而海冰厚度对不同Nio指数变化的响应差异在夏季表现较强。海冰密集度和厚度对Nio3变化响应的年代际差异在秋冬季节更加明显,对Nio4变化响应的年代际差异在秋、冬、春季都较明显。  相似文献   

20.
夏季北极涛动与西北夏季干湿特征的年代际关系   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
 摘要： 利用中国西北地区（新、青、甘、宁、陕及内蒙古西部地区）1960—2003年131个测站夏季降水量、小型蒸发皿蒸发量，NECP/NCAR月平均再分析资料及夏季北极涛动指数，首先通过降水量和蒸发量定义了均一化干湿指数，进而分析了夏季北极涛动同西北地区夏季干湿特征之间的关系。研究表明：夏季北极涛动与西北地区大部分地区夏季干湿特征之间存在着显著的正相关关系，特别是年代际尺度上关系尤其密切。夏季北极涛动与西北地区夏季干湿特征空间变化的南北差异密切相关，在夏季AO偏强年代，海平面气压场在东亚大陆为正距平，太平洋为负距平;700 hPa风场在贝加尔湖地区及其下方有较强的反气旋性距平环流，西北西风带区出现西风距平，季风区出现北风距平，而500 hPa高度场在中国西北地区表现为西低东高结构。这样使得东亚夏季风偏弱，西北西风带区在夏季以西风气流为主，降水偏多，气候偏湿，而季风区盛行偏北气流，降水偏少，气候偏干。反之亦然。  相似文献   

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