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1.
中国近50年降水变化趋势及突变的Hurst指数试验 总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4
利用1953-2002年中国722个台站的降水资料,应用分形理论中的R/S分析法基本原理,设计了两种降水Hurst指数试验,研究预测了中国五大区年降水的气候变化趋势及其突变。通过两种试验对比得出:年降水20年试验能有效确定降水状态的转折点,进而判断降水变化的突变。研究表明:中国五大区年雨日有着完全一致的减少趋势,期间不存在年雨日由减少转为增加的突变点。今后年雨日仍将继续减少,依照五大区气候倾向率,未来10年,东部北方区、西北区、东部南方区、西南区、青藏高原区平均每10年减少雨日分别为6.8天、4.1天、5.9天、11.4天和3.7天。中国1953-2002年,有三次降水量突变。第一次年降水量由减少突变为增加,它包括了东部北方区的H11980、西北区的H11981和青藏高原的H11982;第二次年降水量由增加突变为减少,它依次包括上述三区的H21988,H21985和H21987;第三次年降水量由减少突变为增加,它仅包括青藏高原的H31991。中国五大区中,东部北方区和西北区的年降水量未来10年仍将继续减少,依气候倾向率,它们平均每10年分别减少15.3 mm和6.2 mm。东部南方区、西南区、青藏高原未来10... 相似文献
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降水时空变化对中国南方强酸雨分布的影响 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
利用SCIAMACHY、GOME 卫星资料反演的SO2、NO2 柱浓度和中国重点城市SO2 排 放量数据分析了中国酸雨前体物时空分布特征, 并结合气象观测资料探讨了在降水分布出现 气候学时空尺度调整的背景下, 降水长期变化对强酸雨分布的影响。结果表明: (1) 中国南方 地区NO2、SO2 排放量相对于降水的冲刷能力而言仍然处于较高的水平, 为强酸雨的形成提 供了充足的污染物条件。(2) 1993-2004 年间, 以1999 年为转折期, 中国南方强酸雨分布形势 经历了一个由强到弱到再次增强的过程。1999 年后, 西南强酸雨区强酸雨城市比例持续下 降, 江南强酸雨区强酸雨城市比例迅速增加, 强酸雨东移扩大趋势明显。(3) 中国南方强酸雨 区的空间分布与1961-2006 年冬夏季降水量线性增减速率超过10 mm/10a 的地区一致。以季 节降水量线性增减速率超过10 mm/10a 为界, 将江南及西南强酸雨区各季节降水量做线性趋 势和突变分析, 发现江南地区冬夏季降水量在1999 年出现增减趋势转换, 与强酸雨城市比例 转折的时间一致。其中, 1991-1999 年江南强酸雨区冬季降水减少, 夏季暴雨显著增加, 有利 于酸雨缓解, 强酸雨范围缩小; 而2000-2006 年, 冬季降水处于偏多时期, 夏季降水却相对 偏少, 强酸雨覆盖范围扩大。西南强酸雨区春秋季降水量在1990 年后持续减少, 导致春秋季 降水占年降水量比例下降, 使得年降水pH 值升高, 强酸雨形势得到缓解。 相似文献
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青海高原近40 a降水变化特征及其对生态环境的影响 总被引：13，自引：3，他引：13
利用青海省1961-2002年26个代表站逐日雨量资料和高原东部地区10个站的降水自记资料,分析了近40 a来降水量、雨日、雨强的气候变化特征。结果表明:青海高原近40 a来年降水量无明显的变化,但夏半年降水量呈减少趋势,冬半年降水量呈明显的增多趋势；夏半年降水量和雨日虽在减少,但降水强度在增大；夏半年降水量的减少主要是降水日数的减少造成的,而冬半年降水量的增加是由于雨日增多和每个降水日平均雨量的增大所造成；随着气候变暖,夏、秋季降水明显偏少,出现暖干化的气候趋势。 相似文献
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1960-2015年青海三江源地区降水时空特征 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
青海三江源地区是中国生态系统最为敏感和脆弱的地区,其降水特别是生长季降水的波动,是影响本区及江河中下游水资源安全、生态系统可持续发展的关键因素。综合线性趋势、Mann-Kendall检验、BG分割算法、R/S、EEMD等多方法细致辨识了1960-2015年研究区降水量序列的时空特征。结果显示：① 三江源降水量总体呈现弱增趋势,21世纪以来降水量显著增加,各子源区气候倾向率不尽相同;② 年、季降水量自东南向西北递减,澜沧江源区夏季降水和黄河源区秋季降水呈弱减趋势,雨量弱减区在空间上呈斑块状分布;③ 年、季降水量年代际变化和增湿率的空间差异较明显,春夏季降水气候倾向率与经纬度、海拔的复相关性显著高于冬季;④ 20世纪90年代中后期,各子源区降水总体显现增强信号,并于2002年前后发生突变;⑤ 年际和低值年代际显著周期是造成降水量变动的主要因素;⑥ 除澜沧江源区夏季降水趋于减少外,其他年、季降水量变化呈现增幅不一的转湿趋势;⑦ 横向比较各子源区可见,长江源区降水变化更能表征高原气候变化。研究结果显示,研究区降水时空序列变化具有明显的区域和季节差异性特征,与以往类似研究存在些许差异,可见为有效提高气候序列演变过程及突变诊断的准确性,仍需进一步融合多方法实施集成分析。 相似文献
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1961-2015年新疆降水及干旱特征分析 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1
基于1961-2015 年新疆地区51 个气象站过去55 a 逐日降水资料,借助标准化降水指数、降水距平百分率表征干旱,利用线性趋势,K-means 聚类,Mann-Kendall 非参数检验,Morlet 小波分析等方法,分析过去55 a 降水及干旱变化特征。研究表明：（1）过去55 a 新疆降水量、雨日整体呈上升趋势,相关系数为0.83,降水量增加主要表现为雨日增长;降水空间分布和聚类得出,降水呈现显著“北多南少”格局,3 个降水分区的降水量表现为III 区 > II 区 > I 区。（2）干旱指数SPI、降水距平Pa极显著相关,干旱频次、影响范围、严重性总体呈现下降趋势;干旱变化率空间分布整体存在一致性,由南向北干旱缓解趋势增大,但局域上又有异质性,北疆个别站点干旱加剧;（3）干旱变化具有周期性,主周期为8 a,次主周期为4 a、16 a。 相似文献
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利用塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地塔中气象站1997—2017年逐日和逐时降水资料，分析塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地降水日变化特征、极端强降水特征及其天气背景。结果表明：1997—2017年研究区降水量呈增加趋势、降水日数呈减少趋势，大雨雨量和雨日明显增加，降水呈增强演变。降水多见于6月，最大雨强为8.4 mm·h-1。降水量日变化呈多峰特征，降水量最大值出现在23：00，06：00是降水频次最多时刻。降水强度和降水频次对降水量作用不同，午后至前半夜强度大，频次少；而后半夜至清晨频次多，强度小。降水以短历时降水为主，其中1～3 h的短历时降水对总降水量贡献率高达61.76%。日降水和小时降水的99百分位强度阈值分别为15.3 mm·d-1和6.0 mm·h-1，大于90百分位极端降水量占总降水量贡献率近半。极端强降水天气发生在南疆盆地受北纬40°以南低槽、切变槽或弱的气旋式风场控制地区，南疆盆地提前增湿，民丰850 hPa比湿接近或超过10 g·kg-1的背景下，降水连续性较差，多中小尺度引发局地短时降水。 相似文献
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冰芯所记录的积累量是恢复高山区过去降水变化最可靠的指标。2006年在青藏高原东北缘祁连山老虎沟12号冰川粒雪盆海拔5040 m处钻取了的一支20.12 m的冰芯,利用其年积累量估算了1960-2006年期间的冰川区降水量,结合2010年实测资料,分析了这一时期降水变化特征并研究其与周边其他地区降水变化的关系。结果表明,在过去50年中,高山冰川区降水量表现出先增加后减少的趋势。在1960-1980年,降水量表现出明显增加趋势,1980-2006年表现出明显减小趋势。重建的冰川区降水量变化与临近低海拔区的肃北气象站降水变化有很好的一致性,二者相关系数为0.619(P0.001),而量级上高山区是低山区的约3倍。祁连山老虎沟冰川区降水与周边的敦德冰芯同期的累积量、树轮重建降水、青藏高原东北部多个气象站点的实测降水,以及临近区域格点PDSI干旱指数变化对应较好。此外,近50年来祁连山老虎沟冰川区及毗邻的青藏高原东北部地区降水变化与ENSO呈正相关关系明显,反映了该地区高海拔大气降水变化很可能受ENSO的影响。 相似文献
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本文利用三峡库区及周边地区共21个气象站点1955—2019年的器测气候资料,结合西南地区气候驱动因子(北极涛动指数AO、北大西洋涛动指数NAO、西南季风指数SWM、东南季风指数SEM、暖季均温WST)系统分析研究区65a来的降水特征及影响因素,对比了三峡水库2003年蓄水前后局地降水的变化并评估三峡水库修建对降水的影响。结果表明:SWM主要影响研究区夏秋季降水;SEM和WST主要影响研究区夏季降水;AO对研究区降水的影响集中在冷季;NAO对研究区降水的影响不显著。SWM、SEM、WST与降水存在较显著的1~4a短共振周期,而NAO与AO以7~11a的共振周期为主。库区西北部的年降水量在2003年存在突变现象,腹地和南部地区的年降水量无此突变,而前述气候驱动因子在蓄水当年均无突变,表明气候驱动因子不是导致近库区降水突变的原因。三峡库区蓄水可能直接或间接导致近库区西北部的年降水量明显增加,主要是2月、5—7月降水显著增加(P<0.05),3月、8—10月不显著增加(P>0.05),其原因可能是升温引起的更多的局地蒸发水汽被季风转移至西北部,导致西北部的降水量增加。水库蓄水后,腹地在8月、10月、12月降水量显著减少(P<0.05),南部在8月降水量显著减少(P<0.05),其可能的原因是水库蓄水后缓冲昼夜温差,增加水面大气下沉,抑制水面对流活动,从而抑制研究区腹地和南部形成降水。基于气候驱动因子和月降水的多元线性回归模型表明:三峡水库蓄水后,西北部的年降水比无水库的情形显著增加13.2%(P<0.05);腹地、南部的年降水比无水库的情形分别增加0.1%和减少1.5%,但均不显著(P>0.05)。总的来说,三峡水库蓄水对降水存在局地效应,其长期影响还需要进一步评估。 相似文献
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利用2008—2015年CMORPH卫星与自动观测站的逐时降水量融合产品,分析了陕西地区5~10月降水量、降水频次、降水强度的日变化特征,以及陕西南北降水日变化上的差异。结果表明：（1）降水量和降水频次从南向北明显递减,地形作用下的纬向变化是陕西地区降水最重要的特征,但降水强度呈现出南北高、中间低的分布特征,两个高值中心分别位于陕南南部和陕北的东北部,EOF分析表明陕西南部夜雨特征明显。（2）陕西南部降水量和降水频次、降水强度日变化特征一致,均以夜晚至次日清晨为高值区, 而在中午前后达到最低值。陕西北部降水量、降水频次峰值则主要出现在上午,降水强度峰值出现在傍晚。区域对比分析表明,陕西南部降水量日变化主要来自于降水强度的贡献,而陕西北部日变化以降水频次的贡献为主。（3）陕西降水的南北分界线特征明显,34 °N以南地区降水日变化明显且降水主要集中在夜间。34~37 °N之间的中部地区降水日变化较弱,37 °N以北地区降水的日变化特征和陕西南部相反。（4）除榆林、渭南和商洛东部地区外,其他大部分地方白天的降水量都明显低于夜间的降水量,特别是陕南秦巴山区夜间降水量超过白天的一倍以上。 相似文献
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使用安徽省1960―2012年气温与降水资料,采用线性倾向估计法、反距离加权插值法、最小二乘法和相关分析法分析安徽省近53年来气温和降水的时空变化特征及其与ENSO的关系。结果表明：1）近53年来安徽省年降水量和年平均气温分别以0.93 mm/a和0.02℃/a的倾向率呈增加趋势;季节变化表明,夏季和冬季降水量呈明显的增加趋势,而春、秋两季则呈减小趋势;四季气温均有所升高,春季气温增幅最大。2）不同季节降水量的年代际变化特征并不明显,降水主要集中在夏季,约占全年降水量的45.95%;与降水量年代际变化不同,年均温和四季气温的年代际变化呈波动上升趋势。3）降水存在显著的空间差异,夏、冬两季降水量由北向南减小幅度逐渐增大,春季降水量由北向南增加幅度逐渐增大;气温的空间变化并无一定规律,但宿州是四季以及全年增温幅度最大的地区。4）不同时间尺度的降水和气温均与Nino 3.4区海表温度距平和南方涛动均存在一定的相关性,其中3、9和11月的降水与Nino 3.4区海表温度距平以及南方涛动有较为显著的相关性,而在9月,气温受Nino 3.4区海表温度距平和南方涛动影响较显著;Nino 3.4区海表温度距平对年降水量和年均温的影响更明显。5）近53年来,El Nino事件和La Nina事件的出现频数分别为16和15次,La Nina事件对降水的增加的影响强于El Nino事件,而El Nino和La Nina事件对气温的影响均不显著。 相似文献
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《The Professional geographer》1988,40(4):471-499
Books reviewed in this article: USA, Eine Geographische Landeskunde , Vol. I, Der Grossraum in Strukturellem, Wandel, 3rd Ed. Helmut Blume . Introduction to Remote Sensing . James B. Campbell . The Sounds of People and Places: Readings in the Geography of American Folk and Popular Music . George O. Carney , ED. Development and Underdevelopment . John Cole . Mobility and Employment in Urban Southeast Asia: Example from Indonesia and the Philippines . Michael A. Costello , Thomas R. Leinbach , AND Richard Ulack . Soviet Asia: Economic Development and National Policy Choices . Leslie Dienes . The Third World City . David Drakakis -Smith . Scholars' Guide to Washington, DC for Cartography and Remote Sensing Imagery (maps, charts, aerial photographs, satellite images, cartographic literature and geographic information systems). Ralph E. Ehrenberg . Population and Development in the Third World . Allan AND Anne Findlay . The Early Mapping of Hawaii . Gary L. Fitzpatrick . Energetics of Physical Environment: Energetic Approaches to Physical Geography . K. J. Gregory , ED. Wildland Recreation: Ecology and Management . William E. Hammitt and David N. Cole . Agricultural Commercialization and Government Policy in Africa . J. Hinderink AND J. J. Sterkenburg . The Dynamics of American Housing . James W. Hughes AND George Sternlieb . Thailand: Buddhist Kingdom as Modern Nation State . Charles F. Keyes . Resolving Locational Conflict . Robert W. Lake , ED. Lands at Risk in the Third World: Local-level Perspectives . Peter D. Little and Michael M. Horowitz , EDS. Nathaniel Southgate Shaler and the Culture of American Science . David N. Livingstone . Regions: The Economics and Politics of Territory . Ann R. Markusen . Wetlands . William J. Mitsch and James G. Gosselink . Historical Geography: Progress and Prospect . Michael Pacione , ED. Loess and Periglacial Phenomena . Marton P$eacsi and Hugh M. French , EDS. Regional Management of Metropolitan Floodplains, Experience in the United States and Abroad . Rutherford H. Platt , ED. Human Cartography: Mapping the World of Man . Janos Szegö . Atlas of Great Lakes Indian History . Helen H. Tanner , ED. The Botany of Mangroves . P. B. Tomlinson . Urban Spatial Traffic Patterns . Rodney Vaughan . The Night After … Climatic and Biological Consequences of a Nuclear War . Yevgeni Velikhov , ED. Industrial Geography . H. D. Watts . Dictionary of Quotations in Geography . James O. Wheeler and Francis M. Sibley . Vermont Townscape . Norman Wiliams , Jr. , Edmund K. Kellogg and Peter M. Lavigne . 相似文献
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P. Guilizzoni A. Marchetto A. Lami N. G. Cameron P. G. Appleby N. L. Rose Ø. A. Schnell C. A. Belis A. Giorgis L. Guzzi 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1996,15(3):245-264
A palaeoecological study of an oligotrophic alpine lake, Paione Superiore (Italy), provided a record of historical changes in water quality. Historical trends in lake acidification were reconstructed by means of calibration and regression equations from diatoms, chrysophycean scales and pigment ratios. The historical pH was inferred by using two different diatom calibration data sets, one specific to the alpine region. These pH trends, together with the record of sedimentary carbonaceous particles and chironomid remains, indicate a recent acidification of this low alkalinity lake.Concentration of total organic matter, organic carbon, nitrogen, biogenic silica (BSiO2), chlorophyll derivatives (CD), fucoxanthin, diatom cell concentration and number of chironomid head capsules increased during the last 2–3 decades. When expressed as accumulation rates, most of these parameters tended to decrease from the past century to c. 1950, then all except P increased to the present day. A marked increase in sedimentary nitrogen may be related to atmospheric pollution and to the general increases in output of N in Europe. High C/N ratios indicate a prevailing allochthonous source of organic matter.Finally, the increase in measured air temperature from the mid-1800's appeared to be related to lake water pH before industrialization: cold periods generally led to lower pH and vice-versa. The more recent phenomenon of anthropogenic acidification has apparently decoupled this climatic-water chemistry relationship. 相似文献
15.
K. F. Walker I. G. Dunn D. Edwards T. Petr H. Z. Yang 《International Journal of Salt Lake Research》1995,4(3):169-222
Quinghai Hu is a large, high-altitude, saline lake in north-western China, and supports a fishery based on an endemic species of naked carp (snow trout). The fish take seven years to attain maturity and a marketable weight of 300 g, and have a lifespan of 14–21 years under the present fishery regime. They seasonally migrate from the lake to spawn over the gravel beds of inflowing rivers, but these areas have been reduced by weirs and irrigation diversions and recruitment may have declined. The population may have been affected also by a 1.85-m fall in the lake level over the past 30 years, and by associated changes in salinity. The fishery was opened to large-scale exploitation in 1958. Yields declined sharply (max. 28,523 tonnes, 1960) as the larger, older fish were removed, and then more slowly (min. 2523 tonnes, 1983). Since 1987 the fish factory has been limited to an annual quota of 1200 tonnes, taken by a fleet of four pair trawlers. Another 800 tonnes are taken by licensed fishermen, mainly using gill nets, and perhaps 1000 tonnes are taken illegally. The estimated total catch in 1992 was 3000 tonnes. New trawlers introduced in 1989–90 substantially increased the factory's catch per unit effort, and in 1990 the quota was virtually filled in one month in a zone within 20 km of the factory. Although this could suggest that the stocks will be conserved if the quota is retained, at least half of the catch in 1989–92 consisted of immature individuals. Trawling operations recently were suspended following a further decline in the catch after 1992. While the new trawlers are capable of a major increase in effort, neither the changing environment, the fish stocks or the present markets favour intensified pressure. Gillnets may provide better control over the minimum size limit and may cause less damage than trawling. Other options to improve the viability and profitability of the fishery include improvements in handling, processing and marketing. Failure to develop the fishery may encourage attempts to introduce exotic fish, at some risk to survival of the local species. 相似文献
16.
17.
Chironomidae (Diptera) remains in surficial lake sediments from the Canadian Cordillera: analysis of the fauna across an altitudinal gradient 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
The altitudinal distribution of Chironomidae (Diptera) in the southern Canadian Cordillera was analyzed by means of head capsules preserved in surficial sediments of 30 lakes. Taxa characteristic of late-glacial deposits of southern, coastal British Columbia are extant at high elevations, particularly in the Rocky Mountains, and in large, deep, low-elevation lakes. Many chironomid taxa common at low elevations in the southern Canadian Cordillera were not found in alpine and upper subalpine lakes. These faunal differences are probably climatically related. The differences in fauna between high and low-elevation lakes parallel differences between arctic and temperate lakes. 相似文献
18.
MATT K. MATSUDA 《Geographical review》2007,97(2):230-243
ABSTRACT. Narratives concerning Pacific Ocean territories are often historically derived from European and American mainland visions of great, empty oceans dotted with deserted and uninhabited islands. However, research by indigenous and outlander scholars, along with struggles for political and cultural autonomy in the Pacific, has brought attention to vital island communities and 6has raised questions about a Pacific‐island way of understanding the world. This understanding is traced through scholarly and artistic engagements with history, island‐community studies, and navigational philosophies and is framed by a growing theoretical literature on epistemologies of place from the disciplines of geography and oceanography. 相似文献
19.
Precipitation is an important component of global water and energy transport and a major aspect of climate change. Due to the scarcity of meteorological observations, the precipitation climate over Tibet has been insufficiently documented. In this study, the distribution of precipitation during the rainy season over Tibet from 1980 to 2013 is described on monthly to annual time scales with meteorological observations. Furthermore, four precipitation products are compared to observations over Tibet. These datasets include products derived from the Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data(APHRO), the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre(GPCC), the University of Delaware(UDel), and the China Meteorological Administration(CMA). The error, relative error, standard deviation, root-mean-square error, correlations and trends between these products for the same period are analyzed with in situ precipitation during the rainy season from May to September. The results indicate that these datasets can broadly capture the temporal and spatial precipitation distribution over Tibet. The precipitation gradually increases from northwest to southeast. The spatial precipitation in GPCC and CMA are similar and positively correlated to observations. Areas with the largest deviations are located in southwestern Tibet along the Himalayas. The APHRO product underestimates, while the UDel, GPCC, and CMA datasets overestimates precipitation on the basis of monthly and inter-annual variation. The biases in GPCC and CMA are smaller than those in APHRO and UDel with a mean relative error lower than 10% during the same periods. The linear trend of precipitation indicates that the increase in precipitation has accelerated extensively during the last 30 years in most regions of Tibet. The CMA generally achieves the best performance of these four precipitation products. Data uncertainty in Tibet might be caused by the low density of stations, complex topography between the grid points and stations, and the interpolation methods, which can also produce an obvious difference between the gridded data and observations. 相似文献
20.
Jean-Claude Plaziat 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1993,8(2):163-169
Potamids generally live in estuaries, lagoons, and along protected sea shores. However, their ability to colonize intracontinental lakes has been underestimated due to non- or misidentifications. Potamides conicus, the only present lacustrine Potamid currently found in North Africa, belongs to a lagoon-type (thalassoid) malacofauna, dominated by the Cardium Cerastoderma glaucum: this fauna occurs in association with Foraminifera (especially Ammonia beccarii) and Ostracoda (Cyprideis gr. Torosa). Potamids have been found 250 to 900 km from the nearest sea shore: passive dispersal (probably through birds) is the primary dispersal mechanism. Shell morphology and ornamentation can be used to characterize life environment (lacustrine versus marine) but not distance from sea shore. The presence of Potamid-Foraminifera fauna in the fossil record has been interpreted as providing evidence for a sea connection (e.g., gulfs, lagoons). However, more recent paleoecological studies have demonstrated that such assemblages span an ecological gradient from freshwater to hypersaline lacustrine environments. Thus, the occurrence of modern Potamids in lacustrine (in addition to maritime) environments has important implications for Quaternary and Tertiary paleogeographic investigations. Lacustrine Potamids have been recorded from the European Tertiary (France, Spain) and from the Sahara Holocene. More research is required for the better understanding of the distribution and ecology of Potamids in modern and fossil lakes of other continents.This publication is the fifth of a series of papers presented at the Conference on Sedimentary and Paleolimnological Records of Saline Lakes. This Conference was held August 13–16, 1991 at the University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada. Dr Evans is serving as Guest Editor. 相似文献