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1.
Brazil seeks to rapidly increase its agricultural production to meet future demands, especially for sugarcane, which is an agricultural commodity and a biofuel source. In this paper, we explore how to achieve this increase without compromising existing forestlands. We propose that it is possible to substantially expand sugarcane production in Brazil while avoiding further environmental losses and the indirect land use changes often associated with them, such as deforestation. This task could be accomplished by converting existing pasturelands with agricultural potential into cropland. A great deal of pastureland exists in Brazil. Thus, we addressed the following questions in this study: (1) where are the most suitable pasturelands for sugarcane located geographically and (2) what potential do these pasturelands have for sugarcane production regarding their physical suitability and other significant factors, such as infrastructure availability and socioeconomic factors. We conducted a land suitability analysis using a spatial location model based on multicriteria decision-making and geographic information systems (GIS) to identify the cultivated pasturelands most suitable for conversion to sugarcane production in Brazil. “What if” scenarios were built to determine how changes in the subjectively derived weights of the priority criteria would modify the spatial distribution of the suitability classes relative to the MCDA model and demonstrate the robustness of the crop suitability assessment. The most suitable pastureland areas for conversion to sugarcane production were predominantly located in Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Paraná, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso and Pará. These zones have large contiguous areas of pasture with moderate and high agricultural potentials for sugarcane production. The total estimated area of cultivated pasturelands with moderate or high suitability for sugarcane production was 50 million hectares, which is much larger than the area currently used for sugarcane production in Brazil. 相似文献
2.
Giovana M. de Espindola Ana Paula D. de AguiarEdzer Pebesma Gilberto CâmaraLeila Fonseca 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2012,32(2):240-252
The potential impact of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon on greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere calls for policies that take account of changes in forest cover. Although much research has focused on the location and effects of deforestation, little is known about the distribution and reasons for the agricultural uses that replace forest cover. We used Landsat TM-based deforestation and agricultural census data to generate maps of the distribution and proportion of four major agricultural land uses throughout the Brazilian Amazon in 1997 and 2007. We built linear and spatial regression models to assess the determinant factors of deforestation and those major agricultural land uses - pasture, temporary agriculture and permanent agriculture - for the states of Pará, Rondônia, and Mato Grosso. The data include 30 determinant factors that were grouped into two years (1996 and 2006) and in four categories: accessibility to markets, public policies, agrarian structure, and environment. We found an overall expansion of the total agricultural area between 1997 and 2007, and notable differences between the states of Pará, Rondônia, and Mato Grosso in land use changes during this period. Regression models for deforestation and pasture indicated that determinant factors such as distance to roads were more influential in 1997 than in 2007. The number of settled families played an important role in the deforestation and pasture, the effect was stronger in 2007 than 1997. Indigenous lands were significant in preventing deforestation in high-pressure areas in 2007. For temporary and permanent agricultures, our results show that in 1997 the effect of small farms was stronger than in 2007. The mapped land use time series and the models explain empirically the effects of land use changes across the region over one decade. 相似文献
3.
Damien Arvor Margareth Meirelles Vincent Dubreuil 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2012,32(2):702-713
The Amazonian state of Mato Grosso is the main production area for soybeans in Brazil and contains 31.3% of the national production as of 2009. The rapid evolution of the agricultural systems in this area shows that the region is experiencing a rapid agricultural transition. In this paper, we broke down this transition process into three steps: crop expansion, agricultural intensification and ecological intensification. We used remote sensing products to develop and compute satellite-derived indices describing the main agricultural dynamics during the cropping years from 2000-2001 to 2006-2007. Our results indicated that Mato Grosso is continuing to expand its agricultural sector, with a 43% increase in the net cropped area during the study period. Although this expansion mainly occurred in the cerrado ecoregion until the early 2000s, the forest ecoregion is experiencing expansion at this time. We observed that 65% of the crop expansion in Mato Grosso from 2000 to 2006 occurred in this ecoregion. However, we did not identify this crop expansion as the major driver of deforestation in Mato Grosso because only 12.6% of the cleared areas were directly converted into croplands. Agricultural intensification also evolved rapidly, as the proportion of the net cropped area cultivated with double cropping systems harvesting two successive commercial crops (i.e., soybean and corn or soybean and cotton) increased from 6% to 30% during the study period. Finally, we found that ecological intensification occurred because the region’s farmers planted a non-commercial crop (i.e., millet or sorghum) after the soybean harvest to prevent soil erosion, improve soil quality, break pest cycles, maintain soil moisture and set the conditions for high-quality no-tillage operations. In 2006-2007, 62% of the net cropped area was permanently covered by crops during the entire rainy season. This practice allowed the farmers to diversify their production, as shown by the positive evolution of the Area Diversity Index. Future scholars can use the method proposed in this paper to improve their understanding of the forces driving the agricultural dynamics in Mato Grosso. 相似文献
4.
This paper provides the first analysis at the sub-municipality scale of the relationships between population densities and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon between 2000 and 2010. We use the database on deforestation published by the Brazilian space research center (INPE) and the population census data released by the federal geographical and statistical agency IBGE at their finest scale: the census tract level. By crossing the population density and deforestation variables, we identify ten human settlement patterns in the Amazon. There are low-low and high-high classes of population density and deforestation, but also low-high and high-low classes. This analysis helps understand the low overall relations in the Amazon for population and deforestation. We emphasize the expansion of large-scale agriculture and cattle ranching as causing the depopulation of rural areas while in many regions of the Amazon quite strong population densities coexist with relatively low extents of deforestation. Such findings stress the need to implement case-specific public policies in these regions in order to encourage human presence compatible with the conservation of forest cover and biodiversity. We also confirm the importance of the Amazon urbanization process, including the ‘discrete urbanization’ of rural areas, and the need to better recognize the distinct social and environmental problems of urban areas. 相似文献
5.
Spillover effect offsets the conservation effort in the Amazon 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Diverse conservation efforts have been expanding around the globe, even under the stress of increasing agricultural production. A striking example is the supply-chain agreements put upon the Amazon forest which had reduced deforestation by 80% from the early 2000s (27,772 km2) to 2015 (6207 km2). However, evaluation of these conservation efforts usually focused on the impacts within the Amazon biome only, while the effects that spill over to other areas (e.g., displacement of environmental pressure from one area to another) were rarely considered. Ignoring spillover effects may lead to biased or even wrong conclusions about the effectiveness of these conservation efforts because the hidden cost outside the target area of conservation may offset the achievement within it. It is thus important to assess the spillover effects of these supply-chain agreements. In this study, we used the two supply-chain agreements (i.e., Soy Moratorium and zero-deforestation beef agreement) implemented in the Amazon biome as examples and evaluated their spillover effects to the Cerrado. To achieve a holistic evaluation of the spillover effects, we adopted the telecoupling framework in our analysis. The application of the telecoupling framework includes the interactions between distant systems and extends the analytical boundaries beyond the signatory areas, which fill the gap of previous studies. Our results indicate that the supply-chain agreements have significantly reduced deforestation by half compared to projections within the sending system (i.e., Pará State in the Amazon, which exports soybeans and other agricultural products), but at the cost of increasing deforestation in the spillover system (i.e., a 6.6 time increase in Tocantins State of the Cerrado, where deforestation was affected by interactions between the Amazon and other places). Our study emphasizes that spillover effects should be considered in the evaluation and planning of conservation efforts, for which the telecoupling framework works as a useful tool to do that systematically. 相似文献
6.
《The Professional geographer》2013,65(2):258-271
This study constructs a regional scale climatology of tropical convection and precipitation from more than 15 years of monthly outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and precipitation data on 2.5°× 2.5° latitude-longitude grid to examine the spatial and temporal patterns and variability of convection and precipitation in the Amazon Basin. A linear regression analysis also detects if any trends exist in the two datasets. The region of study extends from 15°N to 25°S and 30° to 80°W that encompass the Amazon Basin and surrounding fringe areas for the period from January 1979 through December 1995 for the OLR data and up to 1996 for the precipitation dataset. The basin-average mean monthly and seasonal climatology serve as a ‘baseline’ reference for comparison with the full time series of basin-average monthly OLR and precipitation to illustrate the interannual variability and identify anomalous periods of wet and dry conditions. A linear trend analysis of OLR data found small negative values across the Amazon Basin indicating a slight increase in convective activity over the period of study. The analysis of the precipitation time series, however, shows no coincidental increase in precipitation as would be expected with an increase in convective activity. Portions of Rondônia and Mato Grosso, areas that have undergone extensive deforestation, illustrate no trend in precipitation as suggested by GCM simulation results. The only area featuring any large change in precipitation occurs in a small area in the northwestern region of South America where a large positive trend in precipitation exists. 相似文献
7.
Tracy L. DeLiberty 《The Professional geographer》2000,52(2):258-271
This study constructs a regional scale climatology of tropical convection and precipitation from more than 15 years of monthly outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and precipitation data on 2.5°× 2.5° latitude‐longitude grid to examine the spatial and temporal patterns and variability of convection and precipitation in the Amazon Basin. A linear regression analysis also detects if any trends exist in the two datasets. The region of study extends from 15°N to 25°S and 30° to 80°W that encompass the Amazon Basin and surrounding fringe areas for the period from January 1979 through December 1995 for the OLR data and up to 1996 for the precipitation dataset. The basin‐average mean monthly and seasonal climatology serve as a ‘baseline’ reference for comparison with the full time series of basin‐average monthly OLR and precipitation to illustrate the interannual variability and identify anomalous periods of wet and dry conditions. A linear trend analysis of OLR data found small negative values across the Amazon Basin indicating a slight increase in convective activity over the period of study. The analysis of the precipitation time series, however, shows no coincidental increase in precipitation as would be expected with an increase in convective activity. Portions of Rondônia and Mato Grosso, areas that have undergone extensive deforestation, illustrate no trend in precipitation as suggested by GCM simulation results. The only area featuring any large change in precipitation occurs in a small area in the northwestern region of South America where a large positive trend in precipitation exists. 相似文献
8.
Binbin Lu Martin Charlton Paul Harris A. Stewart Fotheringham 《International journal of geographical information science》2014,28(4):660-681
Geographically weighted regression (GWR) is an important local technique for exploring spatial heterogeneity in data relationships. In fitting with Tobler’s first law of geography, each local regression of GWR is estimated with data whose influence decays with distance, distances that are commonly defined as straight line or Euclidean. However, the complexity of our real world ensures that the scope of possible distance metrics is far larger than the traditional Euclidean choice. Thus in this article, the GWR model is investigated by applying it with alternative, non-Euclidean distance (non-ED) metrics. Here we use as a case study, a London house price data set coupled with hedonic independent variables, where GWR models are calibrated with Euclidean distance (ED), road network distance and travel time metrics. The results indicate that GWR calibrated with a non-Euclidean metric can not only improve model fit, but also provide additional and useful insights into the nature of varying relationships within the house price data set. 相似文献
9.
Antonio A. R. Ioris 《Geographical review》2017,107(3):452-475
This article investigates the spatial logic and different moments of place‐making during the expansion of Mato Grosso's agribusiness frontier, in the southern section of the Brazilian Amazon. The analysis is informed by three conceptual concerns: the tensions between representation and experience, between humanist and class‐based explanations, and between the intensity of place‐making and place‐framing. Empirical results from a qualitative case study (carried out between 2013–2015, when agribusiness was the undisputed locomotive of the Brazilian economy) demonstrate that socio‐spatial changes in the last four decades evolved due to the complementary pressures and controversies of displacement (particularly in the 1970s–1980s) and replacement (in the 1990s–2000s), which eventually resulted in the widespread sense of misplacement due to accumulated inequalities and entrenched forms of socioeconomic exclusion. The principal conclusion found that the places dominated by agribusiness in Mato Grosso evolved around a totalizing spatial strategy that undermined alternative forms of production and livelihoods that do not fit in the export‐oriented agricultural model. 相似文献
10.
The planned construction of hundreds of hydroelectric dams in the Amazon basin has the potential to provide invaluable ‘clean’ energy resources for aiding in securing future regional energy needs and continued economic growth. These mega-structures, however, directly and indirectly interfere with natural ecosystem dynamics, and can cause noticeable tree loss. To improve our understanding of how hydroelectric dams affect the surrounding spatiotemporal patterns of forest disturbances, this case study integrated remote sensing spectral mixture analysis, GIS proximity analysis and statistical hypothesis testing to extract and evaluate spatially-explicit patterns of deforestation (clearing of entire forest patch) and forest degradation (reduced tree density) in the 80,000 km2 neighborhoods of the Brazil's Tucuruí Dam, the first large-scale hydroelectric project in the Amazon region, over a period of 25 years from 1988 to 2013. Results show that the average rates of deforestation were consistent during the first three time periods 1988–1995 (620 km2 per year), 1995–2001 (591 km2 per year), and 2001–2008 (660 km2 per year). However, such rate dramatically fell to half of historical levels after 2008, possibly reflecting the 2008 global economic crisis and enforcement of the Brazilian Law of Environmental Crimes. The rate of forest degradation was relatively stable from 1988 to 2013 and, on average, was 17.8% of the rate of deforestation. Deforestation and forest degradation were found to follow similar spatial patterns across the dam neighborhoods, upstream reaches or downstream reaches at the distances of 5 km–80 km, suggesting that small and large-scale forest disturbances may have been influencing each other in the vicinity of the dam. We further found that the neighborhoods of the Tucuruí Dam and the upstream region experienced similar degrees of canopy loss. Such loss was mainly attributed to the fast expansion of the Tucuruí town, and the intensive logging activities alongside major roads in the upstream reservoir region. In contrast, a significantly lower level of forest disturbance was discovered in the downstream region. 相似文献
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14.
J. Christopher Brown 《The Professional geographer》2013,65(1):106-118
Productive conservation, a sustainable development concept for the Amazon, ideally leads to economic development in rural areas with conservation of rain forest ecosystems. This study evaluates the human and environmental dynamics of productive conservation in Rondonia, Brazil, using as a case study beekeeping, which has been promoted by the World Bank-funded Rondonia Natural Resources Development Project. Promoters of beekeeping have given little attention to basic ecological or political economic issues that determine whether the practice contributes to ideals of productive conservation. While beekeeping can generate significant increases in household income, beekeeping cooperatives may become overdependent on donor funds. Once the flow of productive conservation donor funds stops, organizations may fail, making it too difficult for beekeepers to maintain their operations. Beekeeping does not lead directly toward rain forest conservation. Moreover, beekeeping almost exclusively employs introduced Africanized “killer” bees, commercially exploitable in the Amazon only because deforestation has temporarily created suitable habitats for them. Given the human and environmental configuration of beekeeping in Rondonia, the paper suggests ways to direct beekeeping toward accomplishing the goals of productive conservation. 相似文献
15.
J. Christopher Brown 《The Professional geographer》2001,53(1):106-118
Productive conservation, a sustainable development concept for the Amazon, ideally leads to economic development in rural areas with conservation of rain forest ecosystems. This study evaluates the human and environmental dynamics of productive conservation in Rondonia, Brazil, using as a case study beekeeping, which has been promoted by the World Bank‐funded Rondonia Natural Resources Development Project. Promoters of beekeeping have given little attention to basic ecological or political economic issues that determine whether the practice contributes to ideals of productive conservation. While beekeeping can generate significant increases in household income, beekeeping cooperatives may become overdependent on donor funds. Once the flow of productive conservation donor funds stops, organizations may fail, making it too difficult for beekeepers to maintain their operations. Beekeeping does not lead directly toward rain forest conservation. Moreover, beekeeping almost exclusively employs introduced Africanized “killer” bees, commercially exploitable in the Amazon only because deforestation has temporarily created suitable habitats for them. Given the human and environmental configuration of beekeeping in Rondonia, the paper suggests ways to direct beekeeping toward accomplishing the goals of productive conservation. 相似文献
16.
The objective of this study was to better understand the linkages between spatial patterns of forest use, land use, and rates of deforestation. We focused on a region of the Brazilian Amazon characterized by a variety of spatial patterns of deforestation and that experienced rapid deforestation in the last decade: the colonization project “Pedro Peixoto” in the extreme East of Acre State. By combining time series of remote sensing data and household survey data, we tested the hypothesis that each spatial pattern of deforestation is associated with specific socio-economic characteristics of land managers. The statistical results support our hypothesis. However, spatial patterns of deforestation are not a consequence of the main economic activities. Rather, spatial patterns of forest use are linked to the pre-conceived design of the settlement project. The main economic activities are influenced by factors such as the property size, their location and disposition, and the availability of infrastructure. 相似文献
17.
巴西热带雨林地区森林景观转化及破碎化导致森林生态系统的功能和区域环境发生变化,并引起全球范围内的关注。以欧洲太空局全球土地利用/土地覆被数据和Landsat解译数据为基础,利用热点提取、信息熵、地统计分析模型及轨迹分析的方法探讨不同砍伐阶段森林破碎性的变化特点以及森林破碎化与整个区域景观格局变化的相关性。结果表明：① 热带雨林地区的森林面积迅速减少,其中,Rondonia州、Maton Grosso州和Para州最为典型。② 森林破碎性的变化趋势并非整体性的增加或减少,而是出现明显的局地性特点;③ 森林砍伐的数量与土地系统的信息熵呈正相关,即森林的数量及质量直接决定巴西热带雨林地区的土地系统稳定性。 相似文献
18.
Maria Salonen Tuuli ToivonenJean-Michel Cohalan Oliver T. Coomes 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2012,32(2):501-513
Quantitative measures of accessibility are increasingly used in land cover change modeling and in assessing human pressure on the environment. In riverine Amazonia the significance of physical accessibility for biodiversity, land use patterns and economic livelihoods is widely acknowledged, but attempts to quantify accessibility in practice have been few in number. In this study we compare different distance- and frequency-based measures of spatial accessibility and develop a quantitative model of accessibility patterns for the north-eastern Peruvian Amazonia where rivers form the core of the transportation network. We model accessibility between the rural areas of the Loreto region and the capital city of Iquitos, using different distance algorithms in a geographic information system, and complement the distance model with information on river boat frequencies and transport capacities. Patterns of accessibility are visualized in terms of potential production zones for different types of agricultural and non-timber forest products.This study demonstrates how results from different accessibility measures vary considerably. The mean Euclidean distance to Iquitos is almost 270 km, the mean network distance nearly 760 km and the mean travel time 70 h. Observed network distances from validation points to Iquitos are on average 1.6 times longer than Euclidean distances, and for the whole study area, the average ratio between modeled network distances and Euclidean distances is 3.1. The correlation between network distances and time distances is very strong, but time distances are relatively shorter along the major channels where boat traffic is considerably faster than along narrow, tightly meandering rivers. Measures of boat frequency and transport capacity show that availability of transport possibilities is highly varying across the region. These measures provide insights into the ’thickness’ of trade, indicating the level of market integration for riverine settlements. We conclude that quantifying accessibility in an environment like Peruvian Amazonia requires measures that take into account the spatial structure and dynamic nature of the riverine transportation network. Time as a unit of distance provides the most relevant measure of accessibility in the Amazonian context, where many human actions and traditional livelihoods are controlled by travel times between the regional core and the hinterland. 相似文献
19.
Binbin Lu Chris Brunsdon Martin Charlton Paul Harris 《International journal of geographical information science》2017,31(5):982-998
Geographically weighted regression (GWR) is an important local technique to model spatially varying relationships. A single distance metric (Euclidean or non-Euclidean) is generally used to calibrate a standard GWR model. However, variations in spatial relationships within a GWR model might also vary in intensity with respect to location and direction. This assertion has led to extensions of the standard GWR model to mixed (or semiparametric) GWR and to flexible bandwidth GWR models. In this article, we present a strongly related extension in fitting a GWR model with parameter-specific distance metrics (PSDM GWR). As with mixed and flexible bandwidth GWR models, a back-fitting algorithm is used for the calibration of the PSDM GWR model. The value of this new GWR model is demonstrated using a London house price data set as a case study. The results indicate that the PSDM GWR model can clearly improve the model calibration in terms of both goodness of fit and prediction accuracy, in contrast to the model fits when only one metric is singly used. Moreover, the PSDM GWR model provides added value in understanding how a regression model’s relationships may vary at different spatial scales, according to the bandwidths and distance metrics selected. PSDM GWR deals with spatial heterogeneities in data relationships in a general way, although questions remain on its model diagnostics, distance metric specification, and computational efficiency, providing options for further research. 相似文献
20.
The recent decoupling of deforestation and soybean production has raised optimistic expectations towards enhanced land use sustainability in the South-Eastern Amazon agricultural frontier. Nonetheless, assessing land use sustainability implies not only the consideration of how agricultural activities affect natural ecosystems but also how they impact on society and how society can cope with them. We review some of the forthcoming challenges that the agricultural sector should address to confirm its significant progress towards land use sustainability. Firstly, we assess the recent efforts to adopt environmentally friendly practices with regard to the ongoing intensification process mainly based on double cropping systems. Secondly, while rapid agricultural development has brought major social advances, we evidence a recent trend towards a decoupling of soy production and the Human Development Index at municipality level. We then put this result into perspective considering that the trend towards agricultural intensification based on the use of large amounts of agrochemicals could lead to major health concerns which are still too rarely considered. Finally, we discuss how the recent efficient policies to contain deforestation in the Amazon can cause indirect land use changes in the Brazilian Cerrados and in African Savannas, thus potentially leading to an “illusion of preservation” at global scale. We conclude that new indicators involving social sciences are necessary to better address the complexity of land use sustainability on the still very dynamic agricultural frontier in the South-Eastern Amazon. 相似文献