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改革开放以来,西部高原湖滨城市经历的快速城镇化进程给湖泊流域带来了较为严重的生态环境问题,未来城市空间发展政策的调整需要关注城市空间拓展对区域生态环境的影响。以位于滇池湖滨地区的昆明市为例,设定6种不用的城市空间拓展政策情景,应用SLEUTH模型预测了6种情景下未来20年的城市空间格局,采用空间指数和空间分析方法对预测结果进行了分析评价。结果表明：昆明市城市建成区具有典型的摊大饼式空间拓展模式,城市道路网对城市形态具有重要的影响。6种情景模式下未来昆明市建成区空间格局既有相似性,也表现出显著的差异。城市建设用地空间格局总体上呈集约、紧凑型的发展趋势。生态保护与城市发展管制相结合的政策情景对滇池湖滨地区的景观影响最小。多中心城市发展格局和城市发展管制相结合的政策情景对城市总体空间规模的控制具有明显的效果,但不宜在湖滨地区实施。滇池湖滨地区需要划定景观或生态保护区,严格禁止城市建设用地对湖滨用地景观的占用与分割。滇池湖滨以外的区域,适宜执行生态保护与城市发展管制相结合的多中心发展模式。 相似文献
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改革开放以来,西部高原湖滨城市经历的快速城镇化进程给湖泊流域带来了较为严重的生态环境问题,未来城市空间发展政策的调整需要关注城市空间拓展对区域生态环境的影响。以位于滇池湖滨地区的昆明市为例,设定6种不用的城市空间拓展政策情景,应用SLEUTH模型预测了6种情景下未来20年的城市空间格局,采用空间指数和空间分析方法对预测结果进行了分析评价。结果表明：昆明市城市建成区具有典型的摊大饼式空间拓展模式,城市道路网对城市形态具有重要的影响。6种情景模式下未来昆明市建成区空间格局既有相似性,也表现出显著的差异。城市建设用地空间格局总体上呈集约、紧凑型的发展趋势。生态保护与城市发展管制相结合的政策情景对滇池湖滨地区的景观影响最小。多中心城市发展格局和城市发展管制相结合的政策情景对城市总体空间规模的控制具有明显的效果,但不宜在湖滨地区实施。滇池湖滨地区需要划定景观或生态保护区,严格禁止城市建设用地对湖滨用地景观的占用与分割。滇池湖滨以外的区域,适宜执行生态保护与城市发展管制相结合的多中心发展模式。 相似文献
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以徐州市贾汪矿区1986、1996、2006和2016年4期遥感影像为数据源,基于CLUE-S模型,在传统Logistics回归模型的基础上引入空间自相关因子形成Autologistic回归模型,选取政策、自然环境、社会经济和空间约束等因素,对贾汪矿区2016年土地利用空间分布格局进行模拟以检验精度。在此基础上对研究区2026年趋势发展、经济发展和生态保护3种情景下的土地利用空间分布格局进行了模拟。结果表明：1）Autologistic回归模型在土地利用情景模拟过程中能够更好地反映真实的土地利用格局;2）研究区2016－2026年不同情景下,建设用地在3种情景下均呈现明显的增加趋势,未利用地面积持续减少,其中经济发展情景下建设用的增幅最大,生态保护用地情景下建设用地增幅最小,在生态保护情景下,林地、耕地等生态用地受到保护,建设用地的扩展速度被抑制。
关键词：土地利用变化;CLUE-S模型;Autologistic回归模型;情景模拟;贾汪矿区 相似文献
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发展广州市湿地经济对改善当地民生、推进生态文明建设具有重要作用。广州市具有丰富的湿地资源,包括湿地水资源、湿地动植物资源和湿地旅游资源。目前广州市湿地经济发展模式主要为水产养殖模式、农业耕种模式、供水蓄能模式和生态旅游模式,但在发展过程中存在过度围垦、河流破坏、过度捕捞和盲目养殖、生态旅游开发不成熟等问题。针对存在的问题,提出以生态优先为原则、以统一规划为前提、以复合农业为重点、以生态旅游为特色的湿地经济发展建议。 相似文献
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Climate change, land-use change, and population growth are fundamental factors affecting future hydrologic conditions in streams, especially in arid regions with scarce water resources. Located in the arid southwest within the Las Vegas Wash watershed, Las Vegas is one of the fastest growing metropolitan areas of the country. In the past 30?years, because of climate and land-use changes, it has experienced a decrease in clean water supply but an increase in water demand. To alleviate some of these problems, large amounts of water have been pumped into the city from different sources, such as Lake Mead, and the urban wastewater is treated and returned back to the reservoir for water augmentation. However, in the face of continual global climate change and urbanization in the watershed, long-term planning for sustainable water management is critical. This research was designed to provide a comprehensive analysis incorporating hydrologic modeling, population projection, land-use change modeling, and water management policies to examine the total water balance and management options in this arid and rapidly urbanizing watershed under various scenarios of climate regime, population growth, land-use change, and total water management programs for the year 2050. 相似文献
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乡镇尺度绿洲土地利用空间格局动态模拟与分析 总被引：7，自引：5，他引：2
以新疆三工河流域为研究区,根据历史土地利用变化过程及其主要人文驱动因素——人口、经济、技术和市场,设计参考模式、经济模式和生态模式3种社会经济发展模式模拟未来土地利用数量需求情景,采用CLUE-S模型分别模拟了地方区、兵团区未来土地利用空间格局的演变过程。模拟结果显示：地方区与兵团区Logistic回归的ROC系数均大于0.7,在40 m×40 m栅格粒度除地方区1998年Kappa系数为0.75外,其余均大于0.8,说明CLUE-S模型能够有效模拟干旱区乡镇尺度绿洲的土地利用变化过程,其计算的土地利用空间发生概率是合理的,不同需求情景下的空间动态模拟结果有效性好,可作为区域土地资源可持续利用规划决策的参考依据。 相似文献
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红水河梯级电站喀斯特库区土地利用及其生态系统服务价值研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
以遥感数据为基础数据源,通过人机交互判读提取广西大化县1988-2006年土地利用类型数据,并分析该区土地利用变化过程及其驱动力。基于中国陆地生态系统单位面积生态服务价值,对各地类生态服务价值重新赋值,估算近18年来研究区生态服务价值变化过程。结果表明:研究区土地利用变化明显,园地、城乡建设用地、裸岩砾石地持续增加,水田、中覆盖荒草地持续减少,旱地、水域先增后减,有林地、灌木林地、低覆盖荒草地先减后增,土地利用变化有明显的区域差异。脆弱生态环境与生存型经济双重驱动、库区建设、移民安置、人口增长、经济发展及国家政策是导致区域人地关系变化的主要动因。研究区土地利用变化对生态服务功能产生了显著影响,生态系统服务价值经历了先增后减的变化过程。调控区域土地利用方式,加大对国家生态政策实施力度,合理控制城镇建设用地的发展,是喀斯特库区持续发展的有效途径。探讨喀斯特地貌单元中土地利用变化的敏感区县,寻找区域土地利用类型的组合,是促进红水河梯级电站喀斯特库区生态服务价值良性发展的关键。 相似文献
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岷江上游半干旱河谷土地利用/土地覆盖研究 总被引：33，自引：4，他引：29
岷江上游半干旱河谷土地利用/土地覆盖结构受山地系统特征影响,以林地为主,土地利用类型分布呈垂直带性。人口增长、人民生活水平的提高以及经济政策的激发,导致耕地面积扩大,流域森林面积下降,可采资源消耗贻尽。森林面积减少、耕地面积增长是引起干旱河谷干旱面积范围扩大的重要因素。岷江上游半干旱河谷土地利用优化应以长江流域的持续发展为着眼点,突出大流域生态屏障功能;建立生态补偿机制,完善相关政策法规,以保证生态重建和土地利用结构调整工作的长期稳定性;提高土地利用方式的科技含量;在科学规划的指导下,先易后难,逐步实现生态建设与半干旱河谷的治理。 相似文献
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We examined the Hulun Lake protected area (HLPA) and tourist willingness to pay (WTP) for ecotourism resources using the contingent valuation method (CVM). Eight hundred questionnaires were distributed in the HLPA and 708 questionnaires were collected. To establish the relationship between variables and WTP, 11 variables were incorporated into the model. Social trust factors and awareness factor were for the first time applied to the models, and two bid equations were obtained by the first and second bid. We found that tourist WTP for ecotourism resources in the HLPA was CNY 14 710 389 in 2010, indicating that tourists have a large WTP for protected area ecotourism resources. Most tourists (79.9%) were willing to pay for ecotourism resources and 21.1% tourists were unwilling to pay. The most common explanation for unwillingness to pay was that it was the government’s responsibility, influenced by special social and economic characteristics in China and indicating that Chinese residents lack resource protection awareness and participation. Income and the awareness of being in a protected area most significantly affected WTP. Trusting protected area authorities significantly affected WTP. Tourists’ satisfaction affected WTP negatively in the first equation and WTP positively in the second equation. These results reveal that tourists had large WTP for ecotourism resources. To improve the WTP for ecotourism resources, the protected area management department could use third-party monitoring mechanisms and accounting systems to strengthen tourists’ trust, and increase ecological education and modify the “one site, several brands” management system. 相似文献
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汾河上游土地利用变化对生态经济协调发展的影响 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
汾河上游流域是黄土高原生态脆弱区独立的流域单元,是山西省太原市惟一的供水之源,也是重要水源涵养区,其土地利用方式直接影响着流域乃至山西省的生态安全。参照Costanza生态系统服务价值计算方法及生态经济协调度模式,定量分析汾河上游1990-2008年土地利用变化引起的生态系统服务价值和生态经济协调度的变化趋势。结果表明,近20 a间,汾河上游流域生态系统服务价值呈现出先减少后增加的趋势;其中林地面积的增加对生态系统服务价值贡献较大,但水域面积的减少带来生态服务功能价值减少,生态环境存在潜在危机;总体上,流域内生态经济协调度有所改善,但仍处于低协调度的边缘,尤其是流域范围内的宁武县、岚县和静乐县。 相似文献
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公众对黑河流域生态系统服务消费偏好及支付意愿研究——基于选择实验法的实证分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
运用选择实验法研究了黑河流域居民对流域生态系统服务的消费偏好及其支付意愿,并结合Mixed logit模型和潜类别模型分别从连续和离散的视角对消费者偏好的异质性进行了检验和实证研究。研究发现：① 黑河流域居民对流域生态系统服务的改善存在显著的异质性偏好,且流域居民从流域水质改善中能获得最大的效用,生态导向型消费者对平均扬沙天气情况改善存在显著偏好,娱乐享受型消费者对流域休闲娱乐条件改善存在显著的偏好。② 黑河流域居民对河流水质、东居延海水面面积和休闲娱乐条件改善3个属性指标具有显著的支付意愿,且对河流水质改善的支付意愿最大,为133.91元/（a·户）。③ 黑河流域居民愿意为流域生态系统服务改善的整体支付意愿为473.16元/（a·户）。 相似文献
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Veerle Vanacker Michiel Vanderschaeghe Gerard Govers Edith Willems Jean Poesen Jozef Deckers Bert De Bievre 《Geomorphology》2003,52(3-4):299-315
In the Ecuadorian Andes, episodic slope movements comprising shallow rotational and translational slides and rapid flows of debris and soil material are common. Consequently, not only considerable financial costs are experienced, but also major ecological and environmental problems arise in a larger geographical area. Sediment production by slope movement on hillslopes directly affects sediment transport and deposition in downstream rivers and dams and morphological changes in the stream channels. In developing countries world-wide, slope movement hazards are growing: increasing population pressure and economic development force more people to move to potentially hazardous areas, which are less suitable for agriculture and rangelands.This paper describes the methods used to determine the controlling factors of slope failure and to build upon the results of the statistical analysis a process-based slope stability model, which includes a dynamic soil wetness index using a simple subsurface flow model. The model provides a time-varying estimate of slope movement susceptibility, by linking land-use data with spatially varying hydrologic (soil conductivity, evapotranspiration, soil wetness) and soil strength properties. The slope stability model was applied to a high Andean watershed (Gordeleg Catchment, 250 ha, southern Ecuadorian Andes) and was validated by calculating the association coefficients between the slope movement susceptibility map of 2000 and the spatial pattern of active slope movements, as measured in the field with GPS. The proposed methodology allows assessment of the effects of past and future land-use change on slope stability. A realistic deforestation scenario was presented: past land-use change includes a gradual fragmentation and clear cut of the secondary forests, as observed over the last four decades (1963–2000), future land-use change is simulated based on a binary logistic deforestation model, whereby it was assumed that future land-use change would continue at the same rate and style as over the last 37 years (1963–2000). 相似文献
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Laura Beth Bugg 《The Australian geographer》2012,43(3):273-289
This article examines land-use development applications for minority religious facilities in two local government areas on the rural–urban fringe of metropolitan Sydney, Australia. Using critical discourse analysis and underpinned by Lefebvre's (1991) conceptual triad of space, the work interrogates the way in which place identity is generated and codified both by land-use planners and local residents through spatial representation. This representation is revealed in discourses around the compatibility of minority religious facilities for particular zones, lack of a sufficient minority population and social disruption. These discourses reveal a construction of peri-urban space that is aligned with particular elite Anglo-Australian activities (horse riding and gentleman farms) and land uses (rural residential, small-scale agriculture and the ‘bush-church’). These case studies illustrate the potential for the creation of exclusionary, abstract space by urban planners but also the ways in which local residents use discoursive strategies to ensure the stability of their position as elites in rapidly changing spatial situations. 相似文献
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塔里木河流域信息分类及系统设计初步 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
根据塔里木河流域的基本特征，从信息的内容和表现形式上对流域信息进行分类，提出以计算机管理流域信息的方法，同时结合实际情况论述了流域信息系统的设计与完成过程。 相似文献
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Under traditional agriculture, Japanese farm communities arranged land uses to collect natural resources from the surrounding landscape to support intensive cultivation nearby villages. This may have produced a land-use pattern analogous to the European infield–outfield system, a type of concentric ring model of land use centered on villages. This study applies a multiple buffer analysis to a Japanese rural landscape depicted in historical maps surveyed in the 1880s, to investigate the spatial patterns that had existed under traditional agriculture for a study area in the Kanto Plain near Tokyo. About 60% of the landscape depicted in the map area consisted of woodlands and grasslands. The land-use pattern combined a concentric ring pattern centered on villages and a parallel band pattern arrayed across the upland plateau between rice paddies. The modal distance from villages to rice paddies was about 400 m, suggesting that the villages were deliberately located at this distance along the rice paddies in the long, narrow river valleys. The distance distribution of other land uses suggests that high priority was given to locating dry fields close to villages, and grasslands in the center of the upland plateau, while woodlands followed a distribution expected from the distances available within the map area. The analysis lends support to the suggestion that traditional rural landscapes were not a random mosaic of various land uses, but often had a spatial structure, that can be accounted in plans to preserve or restore them. The multiple buffer analysis also suggests that distance from key landscape features, in itself, can be considered a limited spatial resource because only a limited amount of area exists for each distance zone. 相似文献
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官厅水库妫水地区土壤侵蚀较为严重。为控制妫水地区的土壤流失非点源污染,本文建立了一个参数较少、便于应用的分布式土壤侵蚀和泥沙输移子模型。该模型由USLE模型和泥沙输移模型组成。首先,本研究确定了USLE中各因子的计算公式,用该模型计算土壤流失。然后,将流域概化为河网,利用曾提出的应用于经Laplace变换和逆变换求得的一维水质迁移转化方程的解中的面积汇污系数和S曲线之间的关系,推导得到了分布式泥沙输移模型。最后,从妫水河流域土壤图、土地利用图中提取地理信息,以DEM为依据,研究了该模型在妫水河流域的应用。结果表明,该模型不仅可用于研究非点源泥沙污染,而且可用于研究流域内土壤侵蚀的空间分布,为实现农业最佳管理提供科学依据。妫水流域土壤流失主要来自坡度较大、地表植被覆盖差的丘陵和山地,控制土壤流失应该将重点放在该流域内的丘陵和山地上。 相似文献
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Protected areas are essential for conserving biodiversity, and these lands have traditionally been set aside for this purpose alone. However, the increasing global demand for agricultural and forestry commodities creates conflict and tradeoffs between dedicating land for conservation versus food production. Efforts to set aside new lands for biodiversity conservation are compromised by the globally rising demand, creating trade-offs between lands dedicated to conservation versus food production. Ecosystem services are the benefits that humans obtain from ecosystems. Recent studies suggest that protected areas provide social and economic benefits that can be used to build political support and raise funds for conservation. We analyzed the capability of current protected area networks in the semi-arid region of Spain to provide intermediate regulating services (habitat preservation for threatened species, climate regulation, erosion control and water flow maintenance) to support the final provisioning service of cultivated crops to support local communities. We found that existing networks of protected lands supply considerable quantities of ecosystem services, in particular carbon stocks and groundwater recharge. Our results demonstrate that the integration of systematic analyses of ecosystem services gaps in protected area planning could contribute substantially to safeguarding ecosystem services and biodiversity jointly. However, our study also reveals substantial differences in intermediate ecosystem services supplied by different of protected areas networks, with category VI areas (Natura-2000 sites) generally showing the highest potential for ecosystem services supply. This demonstrates the important role of Natura-2000 sites for preserving regulating services in the European semi-arid region. 相似文献
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沩水流域土地景观格局对河流水质的影响 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
以红壤丘陵区沩水流域为研究区域,运用GIS空间分析及统计分析的方法,探讨了流域土地景观格局对河流水质的影响。结果表明：① 林地面积百分比与电导率(COND)、综合污染指数(Pr)相关性指数分别达-1.000、-0.997,呈显著负相关;耕地面积百分比与COND、总磷(TP)及土地利用程度综合指数(La)与COND、Pr呈显著正相关。② 斑块数量(NP)、香农多样性指数(SHDI)与COND、Pr相关性指数均在0.997以上,呈显著正相关;平均斑块面积(AREA_MN)、蔓延度指数(CONTAG)与COND、Pr及最大斑块指数(LPI)与TP呈显著负相关。③ 从时间上看,所选用的大部分土地景观格局指标与pH值、溶解氧(DO)在丰水期与枯水期的相关性状态相反,且枯水期土地景观格局对河流水质的影响较丰水期更为显著。 相似文献