共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 179 毫秒
1.
气候变化风险及其定量评估方法 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
风险评估是气候变化研究领域的核心课题之一,减缓和适应战略的理论需求推动下发展出许多定量评估方法,完成了大量的评估工作。然而,已有研究在气候变化的风险构成上从不同的角度去认识,且评估方法论在整体上缺乏对致险因子与承险体的集成分类。基于此,本文明晰气候变化风险构成,包括致险因子的危险性、承险体的暴露度与脆弱度及其相互关系,明晰了风险产生与变化逻辑。融合致险因子与承险体特征,将气候变化风险定量评估方法归纳为突发事件和渐变事件两类,并分别进行了理论阐述和案例剖析。最后,根据气候变化风险的研究现状和评估需求,从温升目标、脆弱性曲线、适应措施等方面提出未来展望。 相似文献
2.
云南省金沙江流域综合农业自然灾害区划研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
选取13个指标,运用模糊聚类方法进行了云南金沙江流域综合农业自然灾害区划,将该流域划分为3个农 业自然灾害区、10个农业自然灾害灾害亚区,揭示了该流域农业自然灾害的地域差异性,为因地制宜地制定农业自 然灾害防治规划及减灾防灾措施提供了科学依据。 相似文献
3.
本文在对河南省自然灾害灾情综合分析的前提下,研究制定了减灾战略的几点重要依据,提出了如何建立防灾、抗灾和救灾体系。作者认为,搞好减灾,必须要建立和完善领导机构;开展农业自然灾害综合区划,制定区域性防灾预案;加强农业综合开发;重视大环境综合治理,恢复生态平衡;建立储备制度,增强经济补偿机制等。 相似文献
4.
本文通过对广东省丰顺县海拔高度、斜坡高度、地形坡度与滑坡和崩塌两种自然灾害的统计数据分析,以及地质构造、地层岩性及岩土体类型、降雨和人类工程活动与地质灾害关系的研究,初步分析了形成地质灾害的多方因素,为后续该地区的防灾减灾工作提供一定的理论和实践基础。 相似文献
5.
地球系统科学数据共享标准规范体系研究与应用 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
地球系统科学是地球科学发展的一个新的历史阶段,其以地球系统及其整体行为作为研究对象,迫切需要大量多学科、多来源、多类型、综合性地学数据资源的支撑。针对这一需求,我国国家科技基础条件平台设立了“地球系统科学数据共享网”这一支撑条件。为了构建该支撑条件的标准规范环境,本文分析了地球系统科学数据的特征,剖析了“研究型”数据对标准规范的需求,指出了其面临的3个关键问题。研究了地球系统科学数据共享的概念模式,根据定义的4条基本原则,分析了地球系统科学数据共享标准规范体系的定位,构建其体系结构。该体系结构包括4个大类,即机制条例类、数据管理类、平台开发类、数据服务类,具体包括18项条例、办法、规范和技术标准。其中,地球系统科学数据共享联盟章程、核心元数据标准、数据质量管理办法、数据分类标准是该体系中的引领性、核心标准规范。经过近6年的研究和应用,目前该标准规范体系已经在地球系统科学数据共享网的总中心和13个分中心试用,取得了良好的运行服务效果。未来,地球系统科学数据共享标准规范将“向下”、“向上”两个方向继续发展。 相似文献
6.
云南金省沙江流域滑坡泥石流灾害区划研究 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
滑坡泥石流灾害区划是自然灾害区划体系中的重要部分。选取11个指标,运用模糊聚类方法进行了云南金沙江流域滑坡泥石流灾害区划,将该流域划分为3个滑坡泥石流灾害区、9个滑坡泥石流灾害亚区,揭示了该流域滑坡泥石流灾害的地域差异性,为因地制宜地制定滑坡泥石流灾害防治规划及减灾防灾措施提供了科学依据。 相似文献
7.
我国自然灾害研究进展与减灾思路调整 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
我国是世界上自然灾害最为严重的国家之一。为了减轻自然灾害影响和损失,政府、科学家和人民群众进行了大量的减灾研究和实践,在致灾因子、灾害监测预报、灾害评估、自然灾害的社会经济影响、防灾减灾综合化等研究和实践方面均取得了很大进展,减灾思路逐渐从以致灾因子研究和工程预防措施为主调整为全面降低灾害系统脆弱性方面。 相似文献
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基于CBERS-2遥感数据的艾比湖流域景观生态分类系统 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
景观生态分类是景观生态学研究的一项重要内容,是开展景观评价、规划与管理等工作的基础。应用CBERS-2遥感影像数据,以地质地貌、土地利用/土地覆被状况、地表植被等因子为分类依据,对艾比湖流域景观生态类型进行了自上而下地划分。研究认为:景观生态分类是建立在尺度的基础之上,不同尺度上的分类单元在纵向上构成了景观带至景观元的多等级景观生态分类体系;艾比湖流域景观生态类型可划分为2个景观类(4个景观亚类)、14个景观系、27个景观型,且该分类系统属于景观生态分类等级阶梯中的中尺度分类段;艾比湖流域景观生态分类系统,对进一步认识和科学合理地利用、规划及管理干旱区内陆湖泊流域的景观具有重要意义。 相似文献
10.
城市公用地理信息分类与代码 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
就城市公用地理信息的若干问题进行了探讨，重点阐述城市公用地理信息应包含的对象、范围、内容和特点。根据城市公用地理信息具有类型多、系统复杂、重复性多、关联度强、动态变化性强的特点，建立了信息分类的原则和4级分类体系，并按确立的规则对其进行分类和编码，在此基础上建立起其指标体系分类和代码表以及编码方案，共包括5个门类、49个大类、247个中类和531个小类以及它们的编码体系。为实现利用现代化的科学管理手段对城市地理信息进行有效地采集、处理、查询、检索、分析和管理，并实现城市信息共享奠定了基础。 相似文献
11.
基于县域尺度的青藏高原牧区积雪雪灾风险分析(英文) 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Snow disaster is one of the top ten natural disasters worldwide, and the most severe natural disaster to affect the pastoral areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Based on the hazard harmfulness data collected from historical records and data collected from entities affected by this hazard in 2010, a comprehensive analysis of the 18 indexes of snow disaster on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was conducted, encompassing the hazard harmfulness, the amount of physical exposure the hazard-bearing entities face, the sensitivity to the hazard, and the capacity to respond to the disaster. The analysis indicates that:(1) areas at high-risk of snow disaster on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are located in certain areas of the counties of Yecheng and Pishan in the Xinjiang region;(2) areas at medium-risk of snow disaster are found between the Gangdise Mountains and the Himalayas in the central-western part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and the southeastern part of the southern Qinghai Plateau;(3) the risk of snow disaster is generally low throughout the large area to the south of 30°N and the region on the border of the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Overall, the risk of snow disaster in high-altitude areas of the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is higher than that at the edge of the plateau. 相似文献
12.
According to the principle of the eruption of debris flows, the new torrent classification techniques are brought forward.
The torrent there can be divided into 4 types such as the debris flow torrent with high destructive strength, the debris flow
torrent, high sand-carrying capacity flush flood torrent and common flush flood by the techniques. In this paper, the classification
indices system and the quantitative rating methods are presented. Based on torrent classification, debris flow torrent hazard
zone mapping techniques by which the debris flow disaster early-warning object can be ascertained accurately are identified.
The key techniques of building the debris flow disaster neural network (NN) real time forecasting model are given detailed
explanations in this paper, including the determination of neural node at the input layer, the output layer and the implicit
layer, the construction of knowledge source and the initial weight value and so on. With this technique, the debris flow disaster
real-time forecasting neural network model is built according to the rainfall features of the historical debris flow disasters,
which includes multiple rain factors such as rainfall of the disaster day, the rainfall of 15 days before the disaster day,
the maximal rate of rainfall in one hour and ten minutes. It can forecast the probability, critical rainfall of eruption of
the debris flows, through the real-time rainfall monitoring or weather forecasting. Based on the torrent classification and
hazard zone mapping, combined with rainfall monitoring in the rainy season and real-time forecasting models, the debris flow
disaster early-warning system is built. In this system, the GIS technique, the advanced international software and hardware
are applied, which makes the system’s performance steady with good expansibility. The system is a visual information system
that serves management and decision-making, which can facilitate timely inspect of the variation of the torrent type and hazardous
zone, the torrent management, the early-warning of disasters and the disaster reduction and prevention. 相似文献
13.
风沙灾害是气象灾害的重要组成部分,具有影响范围大、季节性强、灾害损失大等特点,已成为中国北方沙区的生态灾难,严重影响人居环境和社会经济的可持续发展。为了评估风沙灾害对中国社会经济的影响,已有学者对中国风沙灾害问题进行了长期研究,但对区域风沙灾害风险系统评估研究相对较少,尚未建立系统的风沙灾害风险评价体系。在综合分析近30年相关文献的基础上,借鉴其他自然灾害评估方法,从风沙灾害风险评估理论内涵、评估指标及评估方法等方面对相关研究进行了全面的分析,指出目前风沙灾害风险评估还存在理论不完善、评估模型不合理、孕灾环境指标量化不细致和指标体系繁杂、风险评估方法单一、指标分级和权重计算的主观性强、社会经济数据不能空间化等问题。因此,未来在风沙灾害评估研究时需借鉴、引入和融合其他自然灾害风险评估理论和技术方法,综合近年来在风沙物理学、风沙地貌学、防沙治沙工程学、沙漠化遥感技术和理论等方面的成果,建立多指标的综合风沙灾害评估模型,为预防区域风沙灾害、降低风沙灾害损失和保障"一带一路"经济发展提供理论依据。 相似文献
14.
Wang Jingai 《地理学报(英文版)》1994,(Z2)
CompilinganatlasofnaturaldisastersinChinaisabasistoresearchintoregionaldisasterssystems,torevealthetemPOralandspatialpatternofnaturaldisasters,aswellastoestablishcountermeasuresopinstnamraldisasters.TaldngtheuAtlasOfNaturalDisastersinChina"**asanexample,thisarticleinquiresintotheoreticalandpracticalproblemsaboutcompilinganatlasofregionalnaturaldisasters.ThebasictheoryofcompilinganatlasOfregionaldisastershasbeenfOundedonthecombinati0nofthesciencesofdisasters,cart0graphyandregiotalmhy.Theref… 相似文献
15.
According to the principle of the eruption of debris flows, the new torrent classification techniques are brought forward. The torrent there can be divided into 4 types such as the debris flow torrent with high destructive strength, the debris flow torrent, high sand-carrying capacity flush flood torrent and common flush flood by the techniques. In this paper, the classification indices system and the quantitative rating methods are presented. Based on torrent classification, debris flow torrent hazard zone mapping techniques by which the debris flow disaster early-warning object can be ascertained accurately are identified. The key techniques of building the debris flow disaster neural network (NN) real time forecasting model are given detailed explanations in this paper, including the determination of neural node at the input layer, the output layer and the implicit layer, the construction of knowledge source and the initial weight value and so on. With this technique, the debris flow disaster real-time forecasting neural network model is built according to the rainfall features of the historical debris flow disasters, which includes multiple rain factors such as rainfall of the disaster day, the rainfall of 15 days before the disaster day, the maximal rate of rainfall in one hour and ten minutes. It can forecast the probability, critical rainfall of eruption of the debris flows, through the real-time rainfall monitoring or weather forecasting. Based on the torrent classification and hazard zone mapping, combined with rainfall monitoring in the rainy season and real-time forecasting models, the debris flow disaster early-warning system is built. In this system, the GIS technique, the advanced international software and hardware are applied, which makes the system's performance steady with good expansibility. The system is a visual information system that serves management and decision-making, which can facilitate timely inspect of the variation of the torrent type and hazardous zone, the torrent management, the early-warning of disasters and the disaster reduction and prevention. 相似文献
16.
According to the principle of the eruption of debris flows, the new torrent classification techniques are brought forward. The torrent there can be divided into 4 types such as the debris flow torrent with high destructive strength, the debris flow torrent, high sand-carrying capacity flush flood torrent and common flush flood by the techniques. In this paper, the classification indices system and the quantitative rating methods are presented. Based on torrent classification, debris flow torrent hazard zone mapping techniques by which the debris flow disaster early-warning object can be ascertained accurately are identified. The key techniques of building the debris flow disaster neural network (NN)real time forecasting model are given detailed explanations in this paper, including the determination of neural node at the input layer, the output layer and the implicit layer, the construction of knowledge source and the initial weight value and so on. With this technique, the debris flow disaster real-time forecasting neural network model is built according to the rainfall features of the historical debris flow disasters, which includes multiple rain factors such as rainfall of the disaster day, the rainfall of 15 days before the disaster day, the maximal rate of rainfall in one hour and ten minutes. It can forecast the probability, critical rainfall of eruption of the debris flows, through the real-time rainfall monitoring or weather forecasting. Based on the torrent classification and hazard zone mapping, combined with rainfall monitoring in the rainy season and real-time forecasting models, the debris flow disaster early-warning system is built. In this system, the GIS technique, the advanced international software and hardware are applied, which makes the system′s performance steady with good expansibility. The system is a visual information system that serves management and decision-making, which can facilitate timely inspect of the variation of the torrent type and hazardous zone, the torrent management, the early-warning of disasters and the disaster reduction and prevention. 相似文献
17.
中国陆路交通干线自然灾害风险刍议 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
中国经济的快速发展,使陆路交通的密度、长度和搭乘陆路交通工具的物资和人口流动规模日益增加,交通客流和物流的增多也使遭遇自然灾害的风险进一步加大。通过数据统计、GIS方法,对我国陆路交通干线(公路、铁路)的密度和过去死亡人口和自然灾害损失的模数进行叠合分析,认为在自然灾害频次和灾种呈上升趋势的背景下,陆路交通干线的极端灾害事件日益增多,中国自然灾害的风险因子在地域分布上中、东部高,西北部低。我国目前众多的极端灾害事件对交通干线的影响,是因为对交通干线的风险因子识别研究不足,应该从节点城市、干线路段和区域交通网络三个方面对陆路交通干线自然灾害的风险展开研究。 相似文献
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19.
流域系统的泥沙灾害类型及其划分原则 总被引：8，自引：2，他引：8
泥沙灾害按驱动力、灾害发生的地貌学系统、灾害的表现形式及具体灾害系统，分层次逐级划分成自然动力与人为动力泥沙灾害2个灾列；流域水质，沟道坡面、河道及平原河口海岸4个泥沙灾害类：侵蚀型、输移（搬运）型、堆积型、复杂型及关联型5种泥沙灾害型；最后分别列出2系列的49个及54个灾种。这是一种比较综合、系统的分类原则和类型划分。从流水地貌、泥沙运动及灾害学相结合来看，泥沙灾害具有自然地理地带性、垂直分带性、群发性、继发性和周期性、渐发性和突发性，以及复杂性和非线性等特征。 相似文献
20.
沿海城市自然灾害风险研究 总被引：51，自引：0，他引：51
自然灾害是当代国际社会、学术界普遍关注的热点问题。随着自然灾害突发强度、频度和广度的不断增长,自然灾害预防工作显得格外重要。沿海城市作为人口集聚、国民经济、社会发展重要区域和战略中心,自然灾害带来的损失是剧烈、致命的,亟待开展沿海城市自然灾害风险研究。该领域目前主要探讨的问题：自然灾害类型与风险辨识;脆弱性评价指标体系与评价模型;自然灾害风险评估与风险管理;自然灾害数据管理范式研究等。沿海城市作为自然灾害频发和受损严重的地区,在全球变暖和快速城市化背景下,目前应集中开展自然灾害风险实证研究：沿海城市脆弱性评价指标体系和综合脆弱性评价方法;自然灾害风险评估程序规范和动态评估模型;自然灾害数据管理范式与模板;自然灾害风险评估GIS工具集等。 相似文献