共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 703 毫秒
1.
Steven N. Ward 《Geophysical Journal International》1986,85(2):461-466
Summary. This note presents an exact analytical formula for determining the magnitude of coseismic surface volume change (δ V ) of earthquake faults in a half-space. For a Poisson solid, the formula is remarkably simple; δ V = M zz |8μ, where M zz is one of the moment tensor elements of the source. Maximum δ V values derive from dip slip on faults plunging 45°. For these events, surface volume changes of 0.0001 and 4.3 km3 can be expected for magnitude 5 and 8 earthquakes respectively. All of the coseismic surface volume change is recovered in the interseismic period through relaxation of the Earth and rebound of the surface. A useful rule of thumb for estimating the magnitude of vertical rebound in 45° dip slip events is δ h p =Δ s /24, where Δ s is the coseismic slip on the fault. 相似文献
2.
The IASPEI procedure for the evaluation of earthquake precursors 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Full scientific evaluation of proposed earthquake precursors for earthquake prediction is a problem because independent testing is difficult or impossible. To approach this difficulty, and to assess the current state of the art of earthquake prediction research, IASPEI has devised a peer-review procedure for precursor evaluation. The procedure does not consider predictions of impending earthquakes, but evaluates case histories of proposed precursors for past events according to stated validation criteria, which are specified in terms of guidelines concerning the hypothesized physical model, data quality, anomaly definition, the rules of association of precursor with earthquake, and statistical significance. So far, five precursors have been placed on a preliminary list of significant earthquake precursors, although none has satisfied the validation criteria well enough to ensure that their placement is permanent. Exclusion of a precursor from the list does not mean it is useless, but further work is required if it is to become convincing. The main objectives in producing the list are to establish a consensus on the criteria which a precursor must satisfy to be recognized as validated, and to find case histories which satisfy these criteria. Further nominations of precursor candidates are requested for evaluation by the IASPEI procedure. 相似文献
3.
4.
From precursors to prediction: a few recent cases from Greece 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
P. Bernard P. Pinettes P. M. Hatzidimitriou E. M. Scordilis G. Veis P. Milas 《Geophysical Journal International》1997,131(3):467-477
5.
6.
7.
Far-field simulation of the 1946 Aleutian tsunami 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
We present hydrodynamic far-field simulations of the Aleutian tsunami of 1946 April 1, using both a dislocation source representing a slow earthquake and a dipolar one modelling a large landslide. The earthquake source is derived from the recent seismological study by López and Okal, while the landslide source was previously used to explain the exceptional run-up at Scotch Cap in the near field. The simulations are compared to a field data set previously compiled from testimonies of elderly witnesses at 27 far-field locations principally in the Austral and Marquesas Islands, with additional sites at Pitcairn, Easter and Juan Fernández. We find that the data set is modelled satisfactorily by the dislocation source, while the landslide fails to match the measured amplitudes, and to give a proper rendition of the physical interaction of the wavefield with the shore, in particular at Nuku Hiva, Marquesas. The emerging picture is that the event involved both a very slow earthquake, responsible for the far-field tsunami, and a major landslide explaining the near-field run-up, but with a negligible contribution in the far field. 相似文献
8.
9.
10.
Data collected in Newlands, Wellington, New Zealand show a high level of earthquake experience by residents. Most respondents anticipated Future earthquakes and expected damage from future tremors, findings which generally differ from previous research. The denial of earthquake trouble is positively associated with older age. 相似文献
11.
The two-point correlation function of the seismic moment tensor 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Summary. We use the invariants of the two-point correlation function of the seismic moment to investigate the degree of irregularity of an earthquake fault, i.e. to study the rapidity with which a complex fault changes its direction of orientation. The two-point correlation function is a fourth-order tensor which has three scalar invariants in the isotropic case. Although the accuracy of present-day catalogues of fault plane solutions is rather low for our purpose, nevertheless the invariants of these correlation tensors confirm the generally 相似文献
12.
Earthquake prediction: the null hypothesis 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Philip B. Stark 《Geophysical Journal International》1997,131(3):495-499
The null hypothesis in assessing earthquake predictions is often, loosely speaking, that the successful predictions are chance coincidences. To make this more precise requires specifying a chance model for the predictions and/or the seismicity. The null hypothesis tends to be rejected not only when the predictions have merit, but also when the chance model is inappropriate. In one standard approach, the seismicity is taken to be random and the predictions are held fixed. 'Conditioning' on the predictions this way tends to reject the null hypothesis even when it is true, if the predictions depend on the seismicity history. An approach that seems less likely to yield erroneous conclusions is to compare the predictions with the predictions of a 'sensible' random prediction algorithm that uses seismicity up to time t to predict what will happen after time t. The null hypothesis is then that the predictions are no better than those of the random algorithm. Significance levels can be assigned to this test in a more satisfactory way, because the distribution of the success rate of the random predictions is under our control. Failure to reject the null hypothesis indicates that there is no evidence that any extra-seismic information the predictor uses (electrical signals for example) helps to predict earthquakes. 相似文献
13.
14.
15.
汶川特大地震导致了青川县乔庄镇(主城区)遭遇了较为惨重的特大灾难.县城的恢复重建工作受到地震断裂、山体变形、强烈的余震活动等严重制约.尤其是地震断裂问题,更是对能否原址重建起决定性作用.在参考以往研究成果的基础上,结合实地调查,对该镇的地震断裂问题进行了评估,确定了青川-平武断裂(龙门山后山断裂主断裂之一)分三条分支断裂(北支断裂、中间断裂、南支断裂)穿过乔庄镇主城区的大致方位和走势,并且现场发现该三条分支断裂均发生了不同程度的地震破裂(如地表破裂,山体震裂等),已逐渐发展成为中强震的孕震构造. 相似文献
16.
Bruce R. Julian 《Geophysical Journal International》1986,84(2):431-443
Summary. Linear-programming methods are powerful and efficient tools for objectively analysing seismic focal mechanisms and are applicable to a wide range of problems, including tsunami warning and nuclear explosion identification. The source mechanism is represented as a point in the six-dimensional space of moment-tensor components. Each observed polarity provides an inequality constraint, linear with respect to the moment tensor components, that restricts the solution to a half-space bounded by a hyperplane passing through the origin. The intersection of these half-spaces is the convex set of all acceptable solutions. Using linear programming, a solution consistent with the polarity constraints can be obtained that maximizes or minimizes any desired linear function of the moment tensor components; the dilatation, the thrust-like nature, and the strike-slip-like nature of an event are examples of such functions. The present method can easily be extended to fit observed seismic-wave amplitudes (either signed or absolute) subject to polarity constraints, and to assess the range of mechanisms consistent with a set of measured amplitudes. 相似文献
17.
18.
19.
20.
Correlations of earthquake focal mechanisms 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Y. Y. Kagan 《Geophysical Journal International》1992,110(2):305-320