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1.
气候变化对海河流域主要作物物候和产量影响 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
基于海河流域30 个气象站点1960-2009年的实测资料,分析该流域1960年以来农业气象指标的变化趋势,并利用VIP模型模拟分析大气CO2浓度增加、温度、降雨和日照时数变化对作物产量的影响。结果显示：冬季温度的显著上升使冬小麦种植北界在50年间向北移动大约70 km;在品种和灌溉条件不变的前提下,小麦产量平均每10年上升0.2%~3.4%,其中CO2浓度增加、温度、降雨及日照时数变化对其产量的影响分别为11.0%、0.7%、-0.2%和-6.5%;大气CO2浓度增加的产量正效应大于日照时数减少的负效应。气候变化使夏玉米产量呈下降趋势（0.6%~3.8%/10年）,其中大气CO2浓度增加、温度、降雨及日照时数变化对其产量的影响分别为0.7%、-3.6%、-1.0%和-6.8%,温度上升和辐射下降是玉米产量下降的主要原因。研究结果可为气候变化影响的评估和适应性对策制定提供科学依据。 相似文献
2.
大气中二氧化碳浓度增加对气候的影响 总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4
本文综合介绍了近年来关于大气中CO2浓度增加对气候影响的研究。通过对CO2浓度、全球气温及海平面高度变化的分析,和对火山活动、太阳常数变化的估计,讨论了在过去一百年气候变化中CO2的作用,并介绍了对未来气候变化预测的研究结果。 相似文献
3.
巴丹吉林最高沙山区CO2浓度与昼夜变化规律 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
为查明沙漠区CO2浓度和对大气CO2的影响以及在全球碳循环中的作用,利用红外CO2监测仪,在2009年5月对全球最高大的巴丹吉林诺尔图东大沙山等进行了17个钻孔CO2浓度的昼夜观测。结果表明,巴丹吉林大沙山不同观测点CO2浓度差异较大,各观测点CO2浓度变化在0.01%~0.075％之间;夜间沙层CO2浓度低,白天CO2浓度高;CO2浓度昼夜变化明显,从早7时到次日7时1~5m各深度CO2浓度均呈现由低到高再到低的变化规律;在24h内,沙层CO2浓度变化存在4个转折点,分别出现在凌晨5时、11时、18时和21时左右。在沙层水分一定的条件下,昼夜温度变化是造成沙层CO2浓度昼夜规律变化的主要原因,两者呈正相关关系;含水量较高的沙层CO2浓度明显高于含水量较低的沙层;5m深度以上沙层CO2浓度均高于地表空气CO2浓度,表明极端干旱的高大沙山区是CO2的来源区,也指示环境恶劣的裸露高大沙山区微生物活动产生的沙层CO2浓度仍然超过了大气CO2浓度。 相似文献
4.
水文水资源系统对气候变化的响应 总被引：25，自引：5，他引：20
分别从水文系统的降水、蒸发、径流和土壤水分及水资源系统供水、需水和水资源管理等方面综述了区域水文水资源对气候变化的响应,提出了作者的看法。自从工业革命以来,由于人类改造自然界的能力日益增强,使大气中CO2及其它温室气体的浓度大幅度上升,导致温室效应,使全球气候变暖,对天气系统、生态系统及水文水资源系统等带来重大的影响。 相似文献
5.
土壤呼吸的温度敏感性 总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14
土壤呼吸是指土壤释放CO2 的过程,它所释放出的CO2 是生物圈向大气圈释放CO2 的主要来源之一。土壤呼吸速率对温度变化的敏感性是陆地生态系统碳循环过程中一个十分重要的环节。由于许多大尺度碳循环模型中都涉及土壤呼吸的温度敏感性这一问题,因此对该问题的回答有助于提高对当前陆地生态系统碳通量的估算和对 未来气候变化预测的准确性。本文就目前土壤呼吸速率对温度变化的敏感性的主要问题进行了综述,从温度、水分、呼吸底物的数量和质量、酶促反应动力学等几个不同的方面,概述了土壤呼吸温度敏感性的变异范围较大的原因,以及这些因素对土壤呼吸的温度敏感性影响的机理。土壤呼吸是酶促的化学反应,因此其温度敏感性不仅取决于呼吸底物的质量,同样也取决于底物的有效性。 相似文献
6.
崇明东滩湿地CO2 、CH4和N2O 排放的时空差异 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
通过静态暗箱—气相色谱法研究了长江口崇明东滩四类典型湿地(围垦湿地、高潮滩、中潮滩和低潮滩)CO2、CH4和N2O排放特征及影响因素。结果表明,在生长季尺度下,CO2、CH4和N2O均以排放为主;在昼夜尺度下,CO2和CH4在夜间排放量大于白昼排放量,而N2O的排放高峰出现在下午;在潮水退去、潮滩暴露初期,CH4和N2O有大量排放,CO2正好相反。崇明东滩温室气体排放通量自岸向海有明显的梯度变化,总体趋势是越近岸通量值越大。观测与实验表明,温度、潮汐、土壤理化性质、植物和土地利用变化都对温室气体排放通量有明显的影响,其中滨海潮滩湿地特有环境因子潮汐以"淹没—暴露"光滩沉积物的方式控制温室气体的排放。 相似文献
7.
过去陆地生态系统碳储量估算研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
准确估算陆地生态系统碳储量并认识其空间分布和时间演变规律是碳循环研究的关键 问题。本文回顾了全球与中国陆地生态系统在碳储量估算研究方面的若干进展, 包括基于各种方 法和资料的主要估算结果及其尚存在的不确定性。重点评述了末次盛冰期和中全新世两个时期 陆地生态系统碳储量的变化及其影响因素, 对8.2kaB.P.以来全球大气CO2 浓度呈现升高的现象 及其可能原因进行了讨论。全新世中晚期全球大气CO2 浓度逐渐升高与旧大陆地区陆地生态系 统碳储量减少的事实是一致的, 新石器时期特别是农业文明开始以后人类活动对陆地植被的持 续干预可能是造成陆地生态系统碳储量减少的原因之一。 相似文献
8.
我国城市居民直接能耗的碳排放类型及影响因素 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6
针对我国287个地级以上城市,在测算了近9年居民直接能耗导致的CO2排放量的基础上,进行聚类、对比,并分析城市居民直接能耗的碳排放影响因素,得到以下结论:全国分为6类城市居民直接能耗碳排放类型;高碳排放型城市的地均碳排放强度、人均工资碳排放强度及居民直接能耗CO2排放总量等方面均比低碳排放型城市高,人均地方生产总值碳排放强度低于低碳排放型城市,并多为经济发达城市和资源丰富城市,其碳排放构成上分别以电、交通能耗碳排放和气碳排放为主导,高碳排放型城市居民直接能耗CO2排放量占全国地级以上城市的86.20%。我国大部分地级城市居民直接能耗的碳排放属于相对低碳排放型,其人均CO2排放量低于全国平均水平。城市所在地的降温度日数(CDD)、采暖期、采暖强度、人均能源供给量、居民的人均工资、城市人均地方生产总值是影响城市居民直接能耗CO2排放量的主要因素。 相似文献
9.
亚洲热带山地垂直植被带对晚第四纪气候变化的响应 总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3
过去一直认为热带低海拔地区晚更新世冰期的地表气温基本维持不变。孢粉分析、树线等研究结果证明,从南半球的新几内亚和赤道附近的苏门达腊,一直到我国的热带山地在末次盛冰期垂直植被带下降了500m～1600m不等。植被带的下降不仅仅与温度变化有关,其他的综合因素如高海拔紫外线辐射、大气CO2浓度等都可能共同影响垂直植被带的分布。综合研究认为,整个亚洲地区年均温度平均下降约4℃的结果与热带非洲和美洲基本一致,并与近两年来热带海洋表层水温的研究结果和近期的气候模拟结果相吻合。 相似文献
10.
采用分子动力学模拟,研究了西藏拉果错盐湖卤水中阴、阳离子以及水分子间的相互作用行为。以盐湖卤水等温蒸发过程中粒子浓度变化的四个阶段为研究对象,分别计算了不同体系的扩散系数、配位数、均方位移和径向分布函数。计算结果表明,液相浓度越低时,H2O分子对各离子之间的相互作用有抑制作用,液相中离子浓度越高时,SO42-易与CO32-竞争Li+形成离子对,从而影响盐湖卤水中Li+的富集。本文研究结果对盐湖卤水中Li+的迁移行为作出了机理解释,为盐湖卤水提锂的发展奠定了理论基础。 相似文献
11.
气候变暖背景下中原腹地冬小麦气候适宜度变化 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
通过构建冬小麦光照、温度、降水及综合气候适宜度计算模型,探讨气候变化对冬小麦气候适宜性的影响。结果表明:冬小麦全生育期温度、光照、降水及综合气候适宜度均值分别为0.54、0.64、0.37及0.50;冬小麦对光照适宜性较好,降水是限制冬小麦生长发育的主要因子;温度和降水适宜度以0.001·a-1线性趋势下降,光照适宜度以0.002·a-1线性趋势下降,气候因子匹配效果变差对冬小麦的生长不利。冬前生长阶段温度、光照和降水适宜性较弱,各气候因子匹配效果较差。出苗-拔节期降水适宜性较强,各气候因子组合效果较差;拔节-抽穗期和抽穗-乳熟期温度与光照适宜性较强,水分胁迫较大,气候因子组合效果趋好。乳熟-成熟期光照和降水适宜性较强,综合气候适宜性变差。光照、温度和降水适宜度在全生育期的中后期与冬小麦产量的相关性比较显著。 相似文献
12.
Reponses and sensitivities of maize phenology to climate change from 1981 to 2009 in Henan Province,China 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
With the global warming, crop phenological shifts in responses to climate change have become a hot research topic. Based on the long-term observed agro-meteorological phenological data (1981–2009) and meteorological data, we quantitatively analyzed temporal and spatial shifts in maize phenology and their sensitivities to key climate factors change using climate tendency rate and sensitivity analysis methods. Results indicated that the sowing date was significantly delayed and the delay tendency rate was 9.0 d·10a-1. But the stages from emergence to maturity occurred earlier (0.1 d·10a-1<θ<1.7 d·10a-1, θ is the change slope of maize phenology). The length of vegetative period (VPL) (from emergence to tasseling) was shortened by 0.9 d·10a-1, while the length of generative period (GPL) (from tasseling to maturity) was lengthened by 1.7 d·10a-1. The growing season length (GSL) (from emergence to maturity) was lengthened by 0.4 d·10a-1. Correlation analysis indicated that maize phenology was significantly correlated with average temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration and growing degree days (GDD) (p<0.01). Average temperature had significant negative correlation relationship, while precipitation, sunshine duration and growing degree days had significant positive correlations with maize phenology. Sensitivity analysis indicated that maize phenology showed different responses to variations in key climate factors, especially at different sites. The conclusions of this research could provide scientific supports for agricultural adaptation to climate change to address the global food security issue. 相似文献
13.
Climate change is likely to affect hydrological cycle through precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture etc. In the present study, an attempt has been made to study the climate change and the sensitivity of estimated evapotranspiration to each climatic variable for a semi-arid region of Beijing in North China using data set from 1951 to 2010. Penman-Monteith method was used to calculate reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo). Changes of ETo to each climatic variable was estimated using a sensitivity analysis method proposed in this study. Results show that in the past 60 years, mean temperature and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) were significantly increasing, relative humidity and sunshine hours were significantly decreasing, and wind speed greatly oscillated without a significant trend. Total precipitation was significantly decreasing in corn season (from June to September), but it was increasing in wheat season (from October to next May). The change rates of temperature, relative humidity, VPD, wind speed, annual total precipitation, sunshine hours and solar radiation were 0.42℃, 1.47%, 0.04 kPa, 0.05 m·s-1, 25.0 mm, 74.0 hours and 90.7 MJ·m-2 per decade, respectively. In the past 60 years, yearly ETo was increasing with a rate of 19.5 mm per decade, and total ETos in wheat and corn seasons were increasing with rates of 13.1 and 5.3 mm per decade, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that mean air temperature was the first key factor for ETo change in the past 60 years, causing an annual total ETo increase of 7.4%, followed by relative humidity (5.5%) and sunshine hours (-3.1%); the less sensitivity factors were wind speed (0.7%), minimum temperature (-0.3%) and maximum temperature (-0.2%). A greater reduction of total ETo (12.3%) in the past 60 years was found in wheat season, mainly because of mean temperature (8.6%) and relative humidity (5.4%), as compared to a reduction of 6.0% in ETo during corn season due to sunshine hours (-6.9%), relative humidity (4.7%) and temperature (4.5%). Increasing precipitation in the wheat season will improve crop growth, while decreasing precipitation and increasing ETo in the corn season induces a great pressure for local government and farmers to use water more efficiently by widely adopting water-saving technologies in the future. 相似文献
14.
安徽省夏玉米气候适宜性及时空格局特征 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用安徽省60个气象站1961-2010年的气象资料,结合已有研究成果,利用加权平均法构建了夏玉米气候适宜指数模型,并分析了气温、降水、日照及其适宜指数的变化趋势,重点分析表征各要素综合影响的气候适宜指数的时空变化特征。结果表明:夏玉米生长季内的温度适宜指数呈现微弱上升趋势,日照适宜指数显著下降,降水适宜指数呈现不显著的下降趋势。不同发育阶段,气温、降水及其适宜指数上升或下降的趋势不尽一致,日照及其适宜指数下降趋势显著,自然状况下降水是制约夏玉米生长的主要限制因素。夏玉米全生育期的气候适宜指数下降趋势显著。近50年来安徽省夏玉米气候适宜指数空间分布特征发生明显变化,北部尤其是西北部夏玉米气候适宜性下降明显。 相似文献
15.
京津冀地区夏玉米生产潜力时空变异及其与现实产量的对比分析(英文) 总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3
Crop potential productivity is a key index of scientifically appraising crop production and land population-supporting capacity. This study firstly simulated the potential and waterlimited yield of summer maize in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region using WOFOST model with meteorological data of 40 years, and then analyzed yield gaps between the actual and potential yield based on statistical data at county level. The potential and water-limited yield of summer maize in the BTH region is 6854–8789 kg/hm2 and 6434–8741 kg/hm2, and the weighted average for whole region is 7861 kg/hm2 and 7185 kg/hm2, respectively. The simulated yields gradually decrease from northeast to southwest with changes in climatic conditions particularly temperature and precipitation. Annual variation of potential yield is higher in the central and southern parts than the northeastern part. Compared to potential yield, the water-limited yield has higher coefficient of variation (CV), because of precipitation effects. The actual yield of summer maize was 2537–8730 kg/hm2, regionally averaged at 5582 kg/hm2, about 70% of the potential yield, implying that the region has room to increase the yield by improving crop management and irrigation systems. 相似文献
16.
Impact of the shrinking winter wheat sown area on agricultural water consumption in the Hebei Plain简 总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4
This study firstly analyzed the shrinkage of winter wheat and the changes of crop- ping systems in the Hebei Plain from 1998 to 2010 based on the agricultural statistic data of 11 cities and meteorological data, including daily temperature, precipitation, water vapor, wind speed and minimum relative humidity data from 22 meteorological stations, and then calcu- lated the water deficit and irrigation water resources required by different cropping systems, as well as the irrigation water resources conserved as a result of cropping system changes, using crop coefficient method and every ten-day effective precipitation estimation method. The results are as follows. 1） The sown areas of winter wheat in the 11 cities in the Hebei Plain all shrunk during the study period. The shrinkage rate was 16.07% and the total shrinkage area amounted to 49.62×10^4 ha. The shrinkage was most serious in the Bei- jing-Tianjin-Tangshan metropolitan agglomerate, with a shrinkage rate of 47.23%. 2） The precipitation fill rate of winter wheat was only 20%-30%, while those of spring maize and summer maize both exceeded 50%. The irrigation water resources demanded by the winter wheat-summer maize double cropping system ranged from 400 mm to 530 mm, while those demanded by the spring maize single cropping system ranged only from 160 mm to 210 ram. 3） The water resources conserved as a result of the winter wheat sown area shrinkage during the study period were about 15.96×10^8 m^3/a, accounting for 27.85% of those provided for Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei by the first phase of the Mid-Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. 相似文献
17.
RCP8.5气候变化情景下21世纪印度粮食单产变化的多模式集合模拟 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于跨部门影响模型比较计划（ISI-MIP）中20种气候模式与作物模型组合的模拟结果,预估了RCP 8.5排放情景下21世纪印度小麦和水稻单产变化。研究发现：① 多模式集合模拟结果基本再现了印度小麦和水稻单产的空间差异;同时,再现了小麦和水稻单产对温度和降水变化的响应特征：与温度呈负相关,与降水呈正相关。② RCP 8.5情景下,水稻和小麦生长季温度和降水均呈增加趋势,小麦生长季的温度、降水增加幅度大于水稻。空间上,温度增加幅度自北向南逐渐减小,降水增幅则逐渐增加,并且小麦种植区升温幅度大于非种植区,降水增幅则少于非种植区,水稻种植区升温幅度小于非种植区,降水增幅则多于非种植区。③ RCP 8.5情景下,小麦和水稻单产均呈下降趋势,21世纪后半叶尤为明显。小麦单产的下降速度明显大于水稻,其中21世纪前半叶小麦和水稻单产下降速度约分别为1.3%/10a （P < 0.001）和0.7%/10a （P < 0.05）,后半叶分别增至4.9%/10a （P < 0.001）和4.4%/10a （P < 0.001）。小麦和水稻单产变化存在明显的空间异质性,小麦单产的最大下降幅度出现在德干高原西南部,降幅约60%,水稻单产最大下降幅度出现在印度河平原北部,降幅约50%。这意味着未来气候变化情景下印度粮食供给将面临较大的挑战。 相似文献
18.
近50年内蒙古东部水热变化及对农业的影响 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用内蒙古东部农业区25个气象站近50 a降水量、气温、日照时数和相应的产量资料,研究内蒙古东部主要产粮区水热变化与农业的关系。结果表明:近50 a该区气温增温速率高于全国平均增温速率,降水和日照时数存在减少趋势,增温幅度从西向东递增,有明显时段差异,尤其20世纪90年代以后暖干化趋势明显,水热匹配格局发生变化。降水是影响产量的主导因素,其次是温度因子。降水在Ⅰ-Ⅲ区主要影响时段是6~8月,而Ⅳ区是4~5月;生长季或夏季温差和平均最高气温对产量影响较显著,水分短缺和高温胁迫是造成减产的重要原因。 相似文献
19.
Remote sensing monitoring on regional crop water productivity in the Haihe River Basin 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Crop water productivity （CWP） agricultural development in water scarcity is one of the important indicators for sustainable area. There is serious conflict between water sup- ply and requirement in the Haihe River Basin. CWP of winter wheat and summer maize from 2003 to 2007 in the Haihe River Basin is estimated based on large-scale evapotranspiration （ET） and crop yield obtained by remote sensing technology. Spatial and temporal distribution of CWP of winter wheat and summer maize is investigated in this study. Results show that CWP of winter wheat in most parts of the study area varies from 1.02 kg/m3 to 1.53 kg/m3, and CWP of summer maize varies from 1.31 kg/m3 to 2.03 kg/m3. Multi-year averaged CWP of winter wheat and summer maize in the study area is about 1.19 kg/m3 and 1.59 kg/m3. CWP results show certain promotion potential to alleviate the water shortage in the Haihe River Basin. Correlation analysis of CWP, crop yield and ET shows that there is great potential for crop yield promotion without the growth in irrigation water. Large-scale CWP estimated by remote sensing technology in this study shows spatial distribution features, which could be used to real-time agricultural water resource management combined with crop yield and ET. 相似文献