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基于多智能体的居住区位空间选择模型 总被引：11，自引：1，他引：10
多智能体系统(Multi-Agent system, MAS) 是一种进行复杂系统分析与模拟的强有力工具,尤其在社会科学领域得到了广泛的应用。本文提出了基于多智能体的居住区位选择模型(Agent-Based Model of Residential Location-ABMRL),将多智能体建模的方法应用于居民居住区位决策行为和地价动态变化的研究中,旨在探索与模拟居民在居住选择过程中的复杂空间决策行为,以及居民之间、居民与地理环境的相互作用而导致城市居住空间分异的演化过程。ABMRL模型由表征各类居民的多智能体层和表征地理环境的元胞自动层组成,对应人地关系中的两个基本要素--人类与自然环境。该模型认为居民迁居的动力源于内部的经济社会压力和外部的居住环境刺激。利用ABMRL模型模拟和验证了居住空间分异、圈层城市空间结构、城市绅士化等经典城市理论,并以广州市海珠区为实验区,模拟了该区域居民居住空间分异的演化过程和地价的动态变化。 相似文献
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基于GIS的福州应急避难所空间格局评价 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
日益凸显的突发性自然灾害对城市应急管理提出了更高的要求,应急避难所是其重要基础设施之一.本研究利用福州市社区尺度的人口统计数据建立高精度的人口密度分布图,根据应急避难所的容纳人数与人口密度图动态缓冲区分析计算其服务能力空间范围,对研究区内21个避难所的空间格局进行评价.结果表明,福州城区避难所建设数量不足,空间分布不均,人口服务辐射能力弱.针对福州城区避难所空间分布现状,分析了主要的影响因素,对福州城区应急避难场所选址提出了进一步优化建议,认为在人口分散区的避难所应该增加数量,适当减小规模;而在人口稠密区则可增加规模适中的避难所建设. 相似文献
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应急疏散引导在城市开放性公共场所安全建设中有着重要的意义。为解决应急疏散初期引导人的空间布局问题,论文考虑障碍物对通视性的影响、引导人的空间覆盖范围及距离衰减效应、可引导人员数量阈值等条件,基于粒子群算法和渐进覆盖模型,构建了一种新的开放性公共场所疏散引导人布局优化方法;并以上海市徐汇区滨江绿地空间为例,进行疏散引导人的布局优化,并基于疏散智能体模型,开展应急疏散引导模拟,比较优化前后的疏散效率,来验证该方法的可行性;同时,考虑到不同时间段人群分布的差异性,开展该区域内疏散引导人责任区的动态规划。实证结果表明:不同时刻研究区的疏散引导人需求量不同,与疏散人员数量成正比;疏散引导人布局优化后的疏散时间成本要远低于人为布设情景下的疏散时间成本;疏散引导人责任区的划分有助于在引导人数量有限的情况下,明确每个引导人负责的区域以及采取的日常安全防范方式。研究可为开放性公共场所疏散引导人空间布设提供决策依据,降低公共场所的潜在安全风险,促进城市公共安全建设。 相似文献
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基于多智能体的居住空间格局演变的真实场景模拟 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
多智能体建模方法为城市研究提供了一种新的研究思路.采用自下而上的多智能体方法构建真实场景的居住决策模型,并研究城市居住格局的形成和演变具有重要的理论意义和应用价值.但目前的多智能体模型通常把空间抽象为均质空间.无法反映真实的地理空间.通过对居住环境的"宜居性"评价,作为居民智能体对居住环境评价的影响因子.将多智能体模型与GIS相结合.为智能体模型提供一个异质的、动态变化的模拟环境.由此居民智能体根据自身的经济状况以及对居住环境的偏好不断地调整其在城市中的居住地,模拟出城市居住空间格局的演变过程.将模型应用于广州市海珠区,其模拟的住宅价格空间分布与实际情况相关系数在0.6以上,说明模拟结果与实际的情况比较吻合.模拟结果在一定程度上为理解和探讨居住空间格局的成因和动态变化提供帮助,为发展和验证城市理论提供一种重要的分析手段和模拟方法. 相似文献
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基于暴雨内涝灾害情景推演的北京市应急救援方案评估与决策优化 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
城市自然灾害的情景推演与应急方案的动态预评估是优化应急决策的重要支撑。然而,传统的应急救援方案评估往往基于有限信息进行时间片段式的情景推演并采用应急方案的灾后评估。本文在构建基于内涝水淹模型和多智能体城市路况模型的全链条、多维度灾害情景推演方案的基础上,实施不同应急救援目标导向下多时间刻度的应急救援方案预评估,重点从受损车辆规模和遭受安全威胁人数定量评估基于救援人数、救援时间和救援空间布局原则的应急方案优劣,为灾害情景推演方案和应急决策优化提供了一种新的思路与解决方案。基于救援人数规模的应急方案表明,救援力量将优先布局在风险指数高企的区域,包括北蜂窝路、南蜂窝路、广莲路以及莲花桥等路段。在现实情况中及时参加的救援力量往往有限,此类根据不同救援力量数量的空间指向将对最优的救援决策起到关键作用。同时,研究也应证了救援力量多寡在应急事件处置中的基础性地位。基于救援启动时间的应急方案中得出,最优的救援启动时间在45 min到75 min之间,适时的救援启动可以有效规避过早启动导致的救援空间配置不当和过晚启动导致的救援失效两类问题。不同救援空间布局原则有着迥异的救援力量空间配置特点和最优运用条件。 相似文献
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城市扩展模拟可为城市可持续发展与国土空间规划提供参考。智能体模型(ABM)与元胞自动机(CA)结合可兼顾城市空间增长的自组织性和不同决策主体的决策过程,人工神经网络(ANN)可描述智能体与城市扩展之间复杂的非线性关系。该文基于ANN-ABM-CA耦合模型,在构建CA转换规则时基于ABM刻画人类决策行为的影响,并采用ANN挖掘不同类型的智能体在城市扩展过程中的偏好差异,同时考虑宏观和微观层面的智能体决策行为,结合城市扩展的10个驱动因素,模拟武汉市主城区2005-2015年的扩展情况,结果表明:1)相比传统的ANN-CA模型,ANN-ABM-CA模型模拟性能更优,从宏观与微观相结合的角度更好地解释了城市扩展的驱动机制,OA值为97.46%,Kappa系数为0.9176,FoM值为0.4375,结果可靠且合理;2)不同收入层级的居民智能体对城市扩展的决策偏好不同;3)武汉主城区城市扩展模式主要为边缘型扩展,洪山区西南部有少部分填充型扩展、东南部出现飞地型扩展,与实际扩展情况相符。 相似文献
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城市工业及基本就业空间的增长,是城市空间增长的动力源.有效模拟和预测城市基本就业空间的增长,对城市整体空间增长和城市系统的调控有着重要的作用.以城市工业及基本就业空间增长的决策主体--工业企业商和政府决策者,作为多智能体,通过多智能体之间的交流、竞争和协作,多智能体和环境间的交互作用,决定已存在工业区位的迁移和新工业空间区位的选择,形成城市工业及基本就业空间增长的动态微观模型.以珠江三角洲东部城市快速发展的樟木头镇为例,采用提出的方法模拟了该地区1988-2004年的工业及基本就业空间增长,获得了良好的模拟结果. 相似文献
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《地理与地理信息科学》2020,(3)
城市空间增长模拟对于土地快速城市化背景下空间规划的制定具有重要意义,在基于多智能体的城市空间增长模拟模型中,个体空间决策的建模至关重要。该文在基于效用函数的个体空间决策模型中,引入扩展的强化学习模型表征个体学习行为以对个体空间决策模型进行修正,结合政府规划因素构建耦合强化学习的居住用地增长多智能体模拟模型,模拟深圳市2005-2015年居住用地增长情况。结果表明:1)相比无学习模型,引入扩展强化学习模型的模拟结果精度提高了10.8%,更贴合居民个体在空间决策中的行为;2)引入强化学习的模拟结果中,新增居住用地在空间上呈现较强的集聚性,表明引入强化学习后模型不仅能够反映位于已有居住用地中间的填充式增长,而且能够发现期间新出现的连片居住用地;3)学习模型的参数敏感性实验结果显示,学习强度对模拟精度影响较大,表明居民个体空间决策建模中,对于他人经验的学习过程较为重要,应给予充分考虑。引入强化学习的模型有助于揭示城市增长中个体行为模式,为制定城市空间规划提供参考。 相似文献
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政府规划约束下的城市空间增长多智能体模拟模型 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
构建政府规划约束下的包含多种类型智能体和环境因素的城市空间增长多智能体模拟模型,通过居民、开发商和政府三类智能体之间以及智能体与环境之间的相互作用模拟了城市空间增长情况。模型将城市建设用地规划区纳入政府的土地利用政策,探讨了政府规划因素对城市建设用地增长的影响,并根据土地集约利用的原则对模拟结果进行了优化。在Repast和ArcGIS的实验环境下,以南京市中心城区(长江以南)为研究区设置了四组土地利用情景,模拟了2001-2007年研究区的城市建设用地增长情况,对比不同情景下模型的模拟精度,说明正确合理的政府规划引导对城市空间增长的重要作用以及对模拟结果进行优化的必要性。该模型有助于揭示城市空间增长机制,为政府宏观调控政策和规划制定提供参考。 相似文献
11.
Jia Yu Chuanrong Zhang Jiahong Wen Weidong Li Rui Liu Hui Xu 《International journal of geographical information science》2018,32(9):1884-1910
The timely and secure evacuation of residents to nearby urban emergency shelters is of great importance during unexpected disaster events. However, evacuation and allocation of shelters are seldom examined as a whole, even though they are usually closely related tasks in disaster management. To conduct better spatial allocation of emergency shelters in cities, this study proposes a new method which integrates techniques of multi-agent system and multi-criteria evaluation for spatial allocation of urban emergency shelters. Compared with the traditional emergency shelter allocation methods, the proposed method highlights the importance of dynamic emergency evacuation simulations for spatial allocation suitability analysis. Three kinds of agents involved in evacuation and sheltering procedures are designed: government agents, shelter agents, and resident agents. Emergency evacuations are simulated based on the interactions of these agents to find potential problems, for example, time-consuming evacuation processes and road congestion. A case study in Jing’an District, Shanghai, China was conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. After three rounds of simulation and optimization, new shelters were spatially allocated and a detailed recommended plan of shelters and related facilities was generated. The optimized spatial allocation of shelters may help local residents to be evacuated more quickly and securely. 相似文献
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科学评估避难场所的服务效率是提高城市应急水平的前提。传统对避难场所服务效率的评估多偏重于避难场所空间布局的合理性,缺少对避难者的空间布局和避难行为等避难需求的考虑,这会使评估结果造成偏差,从而容易引起资源配置的低效率。本文构建了多主体模拟模型,模拟避难者灾后对避难场所的选择、奔跑、安置等关键疏散行为过程,量化评估该地区避难场所服务效率。本文对比了两种量化评估指标在同一案例评估的差异性,一种是传统方法中空间可达性(服务半径覆盖率),一种是利用疏散行为模拟计算出的避难成功率;北京市海淀区的实证研究显示两项指标在同一案例区有巨大差异。这一分析结果显示,传统评估仅利用服务半径覆盖率这一指标来分析避难场所布局现状及规划的合理性存在不足。通过避难疏散行为的模拟发现,以下指标的使用有望辅助提高评估的真实性：①避难场所的利用效率。由于设施的利用效率不均衡,会导致避难场所超容或闲置的情况。在充分考虑避难场所的有效服务面积和服务人口的基础上,设计“人均避难面积”等反应利用效率的指标就显得十分必要。②避难标识系统的连通性。避难模拟的实验显示避难标识系统可能对避难者逃生疏散具有分流和引导作用,据此,避难场所与周边居民区的标识系统的连通性也是评价其服务效率的关键指标。 相似文献
13.
Wei Xu Yunjia Ma Xiujuan Zhao Ying Li Lianjie Qin Juan Du 《International journal of geographical information science》2018,32(2):236-256
The accurate location and allocation of disaster emergency shelters are key components of effective urban planning and emergency management. Various models have been developed to solve the location-allocation problem, but gaps remain with regard to model realism and associated applicability. For the available location and allocation models of earthquake emergency shelters, uncertainty with respect to earthquake hazard, population exposure, rate of damage to buildings and the effects of evacuee behavior are often neglected or oversimplified. Moreover, modifying the models can be an alternative means of improving the solution quality when the optimization algorithm has difficulty coping with a complex, high-dimensional problem. This article develops a scenario-based hybrid bilevel model that addresses the concerns related to high-dimensional complexity and provides a higher degree of realism by incorporating the uncertainties of population dynamics and earthquake damage scenarios into location-allocation problems for earthquake emergency shelters. A modified particle swarm optimization algorithm combined with a simulated annealing algorithm was applied to derive solutions using the hybrid bilevel model and a conventional multi-objective model, and the solutions obtained using the two models were then compared. The novel features of the study include the hybrid bilevel model that considers the dynamic number of evacuees and its implementation for earthquake emergency shelter location and allocation. The results show that the solutions significantly differ between daytime and nighttime. When applied to the multi-objective model, the optimization algorithm is time consuming and may only find the local optima and provide suboptimal solutions in the considered scenarios with more evacuees. By contrast, the hybrid bilevel model shows more desirable performance because it significantly reduces the dimensionality of the location-allocation problem based on a two-step-to-reach approach. The proposed hybrid bilevel model is proven to be useful for optimal shelter allocation, and the presented results can be used as a reference for balancing the interests of the government and residents during the planning of shelters in Beijing. 相似文献
14.
新重力P中值模型及其在城市综合医院区位决策中的实证检验——以无锡市为例 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
区位—分配模型是实现公共服务设施最适配置的有效方法之一。传统的P中值模型以效率作为导向,采用“邻近分配”规则,不考虑设施容量(规模),难以适应城市综合医院供需之间相互作用规律下适度均衡、居民随机概率式选择和区位与规模同步求解的布局要求。本文尝试以P中值模型为基础框架,在对P中值模型来源及其适用性进行分析的基础上,构建出基于供需双方(居民—综合医院)空间相互作用的重力P中值模型。新模型通过纳入“邻近就医”最大出行成本因子,确保居民至少邻近1所综合医院(保障空间公平);通过追求总加权出行成本最小化,确保设施空间配置效率;通过纳入设施容量规模因子实现设施区位和规模同时求解;通过纳入最小规模因子,保障设施规模效率和服务质量公平。进一步通过无锡市区综合医院空间配置进行实证检验发现：采用新模型优化后,综合医院空间配置更加公平、居民邻近就医更加便捷,且能够实现与社区卫生设施协同布局,使整个医疗设施体系空间布局更加合理。本文构建的新重力P中值模型(模型的变量参数可作适当调整)可用于竞争型公共设施区位决策,为相关设施布局调整或者规划提供决策依据。 相似文献
15.
Zhifen Chen Xiang Chen Jin Chen 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(8):1612-1630
The problem of emergency facility location is a critical component in evacuation planning. The emergence of geographic information systems (GIS) has provided a useful operational platform to assist this issue. A previously overlooked facet is the consideration of a hierarchical structure in the placement of emergency shelters. Due to the fact that survivors' needs change over time during post-disaster evacuations, shelters have now been categorized on a temporal scale based on their functions at different evacuation phases. This article proposes a three-level hierarchical location model for optimizing the placement of earthquake shelters by taking into account this temporal variance. The article not only scrutinizes the modeling procedure but also implements the model in a planning area with many real-world details. Based on the optimization results derived from a GIS context, we have found that the quality of the earthquake response procedure is not only dependent on the placement strategy of shelters, but more importantly on the financial constraints imposed on the planning and construction of these shelters. A discussion has been proposed to balance the trade-off between budget planning and evacuation efficiency. As the first attempt to model the hierarchical configuration of emergency shelters with specific focus on evacuees' escalating sheltering demands, this article will be of great significance in helping policy makers consider both the spatial and financial aspects of the strategic placement of emergency shelters. 相似文献
16.
Research on disaster response frequently uses volunteered geographic information (VGI), due to its capability to provide near real-time information during and after a disaster. It is much less commonly used in spatial planning related to disaster management. However, VGI appears to have considerable potential for use in spatial planning and offers some advantages over traditional methods. For example, VGI can capture residents' preferences in a much faster, more timely, and more comprehensive fashion than is possible with, for example, questionnaires and surveys. This research investigates the usefulness of VGI for planning flood evacuation shelters. Using Jakarta, Indonesia, as a case study, we use VGI to capture the locations of flood evacuation shelters based on residents' preferences during flood periods in 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 and compare these with the locations of official shelters. Floods frequently affect Jakarta and the city administration uses VGI in flood emergency responses. Moreover, Jakarta has been identified as having the largest number of active Twitter users among cities worldwide. Thus, Jakarta is an appropriate place to study the use of VGI for planning evacuation shelters. VGI generated by Twitter users was used to identify the shelter locations preferred by Jakarta residents, and more precisely the flood evacuees. Of 171,046 tweets using keywords relating to flood evacuation, the content of 306 tweets indicated that they had been sent from inside or near evacuation shelters. The spatial pattern showed that those tweets were sent from 215 locations, mostly located near flooded areas. The analysis further showed that 35.6% of these shelter locations preferred by residents intersected with the locations of official evacuation shelters. As a general conclusion, our study demonstrates the advantages of using VGI for spatial planning, which mainly relates to the ease of capturing community preferences over a large area. 相似文献
17.
Majid Esmaelian Francisco J. Santos Arteaga Sommayeh Mohammadi 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(7):1187-1213
Earthquakes occurring in urban areas constitute an important concern for emergency management and rescue services. Emergency service location problems may be formulated in discrete space or by restricting the potential location(s) to a specified finite set of points in continuous space. We propose a Multicriteria Spatial Decision Support System to identify shelters and emergency service locations in urban evacuation planning. The proposed system has emerged as an integration of the geographical information systems (GIS) and the multicriteria Decision-Making method of Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation IV (PROMETHEE IV). This system incorporates multiple and often conflicting criteria and decision-makers’ preferences into a spatial decision model. We consider three standard structural attributes (i.e., durability density, population density, and oldness density) in the form of spatial maps to determine the zones most vulnerable to an earthquake. The information on these spatial maps is then entered into the ArcGIS software to define the relevant scores for each point with regards to the aforementioned attributes. These scores will be used to compute the preference functions in PROMETHEE IV, whose net flow outranking for each alternative will be inputted in ArcGIS to determine the zones that are most vulnerable to an earthquake. The final scores obtained are integrated into a mathematical programming model designed to find the most suitable locations for the construction of emergency service stations. We demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method and the efficacy of the procedures and algorithms in an earthquake emergency service station planning case study in the city of Tehran. 相似文献
18.
基于GIS的上海中心城区公园避难可达性研究 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
绿地公园对于城市防灾减灾发挥着重要应急避难作用,其空间布局的合理性直接影响到城市综合减灾效益。基于空间可达性理论和防灾避难要求,采用2SFCA模型和ArcGIS集成技术,定量研究上海中心城区公园的应急避难服务与居民避难需求之间的平衡关系。结果表明:当避难可达距离d0为500~2 000 m时,公园避难可达性呈现"中心地区弱、边缘地区强"的趋势;当d0为1 500 m时,现有城市公园避难服务范围达最大,服务人口比重达22.9%;城市公园空间布局及规模与人口分布格局不匹配是影响避难可达性空间分布差异的主要因素;适当增设学校、广场等作为避难空间以及合理设置公园的避难服务半径和规划专门的避难道路等有利于改善上海中心城区居民避难的可达性。 相似文献
19.
《Urban geography》2013,34(2):99-126
A framework for analyzing the structure of urban emergency shelter networks is proposed. The shelter and service network consists of clients, shelters, support services, and a political context shaped by state policies and community attitudes. The example of Metropolitan Toronto shows that, while it might be true that there is a need for more permanent housing, there also exists a real need for emergency shelters. A problem exists for certain groups who might seek temporary shelter in suburban areas because of the unequal spatial distribution of shelters and support services between the inner City of Toronto and suburban municipalities. The recent suburbanization of some shelters has been dominated by shelters for women and children. Patterns of repeat usage of the shelter network suggest that certain client groups might not have access to all the support services they need. The conclusions argue that urban shelter networks offer an opportunity for geographers to consider more closely the links between housing, policy, and political ideologies. 相似文献