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1.
This study evaluates new multi-scale, multi-indicator methods for assessing the vulnerability of crop production to drought at a national and regional scale. It does this by identifying differences across and within ten regions of Ghana, a country that faces many climate and crop production challenges typical of sub-Saharan Africa. In particular, we illustrate how a quantitative national and regional study is a critical first step in assessing differences in the drought sensitivity of food production systems and show how such an assessment enables the formulation of more targeted district and community level research that can explore the drivers of vulnerability and change on a local-scale. Finally, we propose methodological steps that can improve drought sensitivity and vulnerability assessments in dynamic dryland farming systems where there are multiple drivers of change and thresholds of risk that vary in both space and time. Results show that the vulnerability of crop production to drought in Ghana has discernible geographical and socioeconomic patterns, with the Northern, Upper West and Upper East regions being most vulnerable. Partly, this is because these regions have the lowest adaptive capacity due to low socioeconomic development and have economies based on rain-fed agriculture. Within these regions we find considerable differences between districts that can be explained only partly by socioeconomic variables with further community and household-scale research required to explain the causes of differences in vulnerability status. Our results highlight that national and regional scale multi-indicator vulnerability assessments are a vital (and often ignored) first step in assessing vulnerability across a large area. These inputs can guide both local-level research and also demonstrate the need for region-specific policies to reduce vulnerability and to enhance drought preparedness within dryland farming communities.  相似文献   

2.
高温给城市人口健康和社会发展带来的脆弱性后果愈发严重,如何科学量化与评估城市高温人口脆弱性,为制定更具针对性的高温适应对策提供科学依据成为当前国际研究热点。在城市高温人口脆弱性分析框架基础上,以西安市为例,整合遥感影像、手机信令、POI、社会经济等多源数据,从高温暴露、敏感性、适应能力3个维度构建高温影响下人口脆弱性评估指标体系和脆弱性测度模型,揭示高温人口脆弱性等级分布特征和空间异质性,识别人口脆弱性空间地域及其致脆因子类型。结果表明：① 西安市高温暴露、敏感性和适应能力都表现出显著的空间集聚特征,且总体上均呈现出“中心-边缘”结构,即城市中心地区形成“高暴露、高敏感、高适应”,城市边缘表现为“低暴露、低敏感、低适应”。② 西安市人口脆弱性以低值和较低水平为主,脆弱性也具有显著的空间集聚性,脆弱性较高地区主要集中在城市三环以内,形成断续的“岛状”分布形态,脆弱性低值和较低值地区分布在城市边缘。③ 不同致脆类型的面积占比依次为综合主导型（37.3%）>高温暴露主导型（33.3%）>适应能力不足主导型（23.6%）>人口敏感主导型（5.8%）;高温暴露主导型广泛分布在城市中心、北部和西部等地,人口敏感主导型相对集中在城市中心偏南地区,适应能力不足主导型主要分布在城市边缘,综合主导型主要集中在城市南部,北部也有大量分散式分布。本研究可在城市高温人口脆弱性评估方法,城市高温人口脆弱性的减缓与治理等方面提供借鉴和启示。  相似文献   

3.
In order to advance land use and land cover change (LUCC) research in Nepal, it is essential to reconstruct both the spatiotemporal distribution of agricultural land cover as well as scenarios that can explain these changes at the national and regional levels. Because of rapid population growth, the status of agricultural land in Nepal has changed markedly over the last 100 years. Historical data is used in this study, encompassing soils, populations, climatic variables, and topography. Data were revised to a series of 30 m grid cells utilized for agricultural land suitability and allocation models and were analyzed using a suite of advanced geographical tools. Our reconstructions for the spatiotemporal distribution of agricultural land in Nepal reveal an increasing trend between 1910 and 2010 (from 151.2 × 102 km2 to 438.8 × 102 km2). This expanded rate of increase in agricultural land has varied between different eco, physiographic, and altitudinal regions of the country, significantly driven by population changes and policies over the period of this investigation. The historical dataset presented in this paper fills an existing gap in studies of agricultural land change and can be applied to other carbon cycle and climate modeling studies, as well as to impact assessments of agricultural land change in Nepal.  相似文献   

4.
Climate change is already occurring in the Arctic and the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment recently concluded that future climate change could be devastating for Inuit. This paper characterises vulnerability to climate change in two Inuit communities in the Canadian territory of Nunavut, focusing on the resource harvesting sector. In both communities, Inuit have demonstrated significant adaptability in the face of current changes in climatic conditions. This adaptability is facilitated by traditional Inuit knowledge, strong social networks, flexibility in resource use, and institutional support. Changing Inuit livelihoods, however, have undermined certain aspects of adaptive capacity and have resulted in emerging vulnerabilities. Global and regional climate projections indicate that climatic conditions which currently pose risks are expected to be negatively affected by future climate change. These projections are not without precedent and analysis of current vulnerability and identification of adaptation constraints by Inuit in the two communities indicate the continued importance of traditional coping mechanisms. The ability to draw on these coping mechanisms in light of future climate change, however, will be unequal and the research indicates that young Inuit and those without access to economic resources, in particular, are vulnerable.  相似文献   

5.
The role of governance in community adaptation to climate change   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
The capacity to adapt to challenges such as climate change can be seen as largely determined by socioeconomic context or social vulnerability. This article examines the adaptive capacity of local actors in response to globalization and climate change, asking: how much of the desirable adaptation can be undertaken at a local level, and how much is determined by actors at other levels, for instance, when resource conflicts occur? Drawing on case studies of fishing in northern Norway and north-west Russia, the paper shows that adaptive capacity beyond the immediate economic adaptations available to local actors is, to a considerable extent, politically determined within larger governance networks.  相似文献   

6.
Future climate change potentially can have a strong impact on the African continent. Of special concern are the effects on food security and the restricted adaptive capacity of Africa's poverty stricken population. Targeted policy interventions are, therefore, of vital importance. While there is a broad consensus on selection of climate and agricultural indicators, a coherent spatial representation of the populations' vulnerability is still subject to debate, basically because important drivers at household and institutional level are captured at the coarser (sub)-national level only. This paper aims to address this shortcoming by capitalizing on available spatially explicit information on households, food security institutions and natural resources to identify and characterize vulnerable groups in climate change prone areas of East and West Africa. First, we identify and localize groups with varying degrees of vulnerability, using food security and health indicators from georeferenced household surveys. Second, we characterize these vulnerable groups using statistical techniques that report on the frequency of occurrence of household characteristics, social bonding, remittances and agro-ecological endowments. Third we localize areas where climate change conditions affect production of major staple crops even after a maximum adaptation of crop rotations. Fourth, we characterize the vulnerable groups in the climate change affected areas and compare their profiles with the overall assessment to elucidate whether generic or climate change targeted policies are required. Since climate change will impact predominantly on agricultural production, our analysis focuses on the rural areas. For West Africa, we find that vulnerable groups in areas likely to be affected by climate change do not fundamentally differ from vulnerable groups in the study area in general. However, in East Africa there are remarkable differences between these groups which leads to the conclusion that in this part of Africa, poverty reducing strategies for climate change affected areas should differ from generic ones.  相似文献   

7.
This study assessed the spatial distribution of vulnerability to extreme heat in 1990 and 2000 within metropolitan Phoenix based on an index of seven equally weighted measures of physical exposure and adaptive capacity. These measures were derived from spatially interpolated climate, normalized differential vegetation index, and U.S. Census data. From resulting vulnerability maps, we also analyzed population groups living in areas of high heat vulnerability. Results revealed that landscapes of heat vulnerability changed substantially in response to variations in physical and socioeconomic factors, with significant alterations to spatial distribution of vulnerability especially between eastern and western sectors of Phoenix. These changes worked to the detriment of Phoenix's Hispanic population and the elderly concentrated in urban-fringe retirement communities.  相似文献   

8.
Tea is an important cash crop for the economy in northeast India. It also supports the livelihoods of a large proportion of the population. At the same time, tea growth is sensitive to climatic conditions making it vulnerable to climate change and variability. Identifying the tea yield response to climatic variability in operational plantations, and identifying the most important climatic variables that impact tea yield is critical to assessing the vulnerability of the industry and informing adaptation. Here, we developed a garden level panel dataset and estimated statistical models to identify the causal effect of monthly temperature, monthly precipitation, drought intensity, and precipitation variability on tea yield. We found decreasing tea yield returns to warmer monthly average temperatures, and when monthly temperatures were above 26.6 °C warming had a negative effect. We found that drought intensity did not affect tea yield and that precipitation variability, and in particular precipitation intensity, negatively affect tea yield. An increase in average temperatures as expected with global warming will reduce the productivity of tea plantations, all else held equal. Further, interventions to reduce the sensitivity of tea plantations to warming and precipitation variability will have immediate pay-offs as well as providing climate change adaptation benefits.  相似文献   

9.
This article assesses the vulnerability to climatic and socioeconomic stresses in the Reef Islands, Solomon Islands, an atoll island group in the Southwest Pacific. Climate change and the associated sea-level rise are often seen as the most pressing challenges to atoll communities, yet this study aims at critically re-assessing this view by placing climate in the context of a range of other internal and external stressors affecting local livelihoods, including population growth, inadequate land use practices, and lack of economic potential, as well as external factors such as poorly developed infrastructure, economic marginalization and weak governance of Solomon Islands. Findings suggest that some of these non-climatic stresses are currently – and in the short term – more important determinants of local vulnerability than climate change and sea-level rise. Certainly, these stresses are likely to be exacerbated by different elements of climate change in the short, medium and long term, but generally speaking climate change does not appear to be a major driver of the current changes in the islands. On the basis of these observations, the possible adaptation options, relevant to different time scales, are discussed.  相似文献   

10.
Coping with extreme climate events and its related climatic disasters caused by climate change has become a global issue and drew wide attention from scientists, policy-makers and public. This paper calculated the expected annual multiple climatic hazards intensity index based on the results of nine climatic hazards including tropical cyclone, flood, landslide, storm surge, sand-dust storm, drought, heat wave, cold wave and wildfire. Then a vulnerability model involving the coping capacity indicator with mortality rate, affected population rate and GDP loss rate, was developed to estimate the expected annual affected population, mortality and GDP loss risks. The results showed that: countries with the highest risks are also the countries with large population or GDP. To substantially reduce the global total climatic hazards risks, these countries should reduce the exposure and improving the governance of integrated climatic risk; Without considering the total exposure, countries with the high mortality rate, affected population rate or GDP loss rate, which also have higher or lower coping capacity, such as the Philippines, Bangladesh and Vietnam, are the hotspots of the planning and strategy making for the climatic disaster risk reduction and should focus on promoting the coping capacity.  相似文献   

11.
Heat is the number one weather-related cause of mortality in the United States; typically punctuated by extreme heat waves. This study examines the relationship between the spatial distribution of vulnerable populations, satellite-detected urban heat island (UHI) and heat-related mortality distributions during a 1993 extreme heat event in Philadelphia, PA. Geostatistical methods are used to compare spatial distributions of vulnerability and to determine concentration of mortality within surface UHI intensity levels. The results suggest the spatial distribution of urban poor is congruent with heat-related death. Additionally, deaths are concentrated in higher order surface UHI intensity levels. The findings suggest that surface UHI measures and population in poverty are important variables in spatially measuring risk from extreme heat events. Coupling surface UHI measures with socioeconomic indicators of vulnerability may enable creation of risk models with improved spatial specificity to assist public health professionals. This approach is demonstrated by developing a linear regression model of potential risk in Philadelphia for the 1993 extreme heat event.  相似文献   

12.
Coping with extreme climate events and its related climatic disasters caused by climate change has become a global issue and drew wide attention from scientists, policy-makers and public. This paper calculated the expected annual multiple climatic hazards intensity index based on the results of nine climatic hazards including tropical cyclone, flood, landslide, storm surge, sand-dust storm, drought, heat wave, cold wave and wildfire. Then a vulnerability model involving the coping capacity indicator with mortality rate, affected population rate and GDP loss rate, was developed to estimate the expected annual affected population, mortality and GDP loss risks. The results showed that: countries with the highest risks are also the countries with large population or GDP. To substantially reduce the global total climatic hazards risks, these countries should reduce the exposure and improving the governance of integrated climatic risk; Without considering the total exposure, countries with the high mortality rate, affected population rate or GDP loss rate, which also have higher or lower coping capacity, such as the Philippines, Bangladesh and Vietnam, are the hotspots of the planning and strategy making for the climatic disaster risk reduction and should focus on promoting the coping capacity.  相似文献   

13.
The future impact of climate change will be a considerable challenge for all countries, and in particular Small Island Developing States. Challenges related to climate vulnerability and tenure security are exacerbated in areas of rapid urbanisation and urban growth, with highly vulnerable informal settlements a common result. Drawing on research into vulnerable informal settlements in the Greater Suva Urban Area in Fiji, this research seeks to better understand perceptions of climate vulnerability, adaptive capacity, tenure security and options for resettlement. This research confirmed that there are important linkages at the settlement level between tenure security, perception of vulnerability, and people’s ability to adapt. Two critical factors in any decision to resettle people are (i) providing tenure security for all people affected, and (ii) considering livelihood impacts as a result of resettlement. We conclude that vulnerability, tenure security and resettlement decisions are complex issues and specific to individual settlements, and to specific households within settlements.  相似文献   

14.
基于遥感数据的西藏高原自然生态系统脆弱性评估   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  
基于生态系统结构、功能、生境的脆弱性评价指标体系,以MODIS为基础数据源,评估了西藏高原自然生态系统的脆弱性,并揭示其空间异质性特征。结果表明：① 分别基于气候、结构以及功能指标的西藏高原生态系统脆弱性程度空间分布呈现出相似规律,整体为从东南向西北脆弱性程度逐渐加剧的趋势;而基于地形指标的生态脆弱性则呈现相反的分布格局,说明了相对地形而言,气候因子对于西藏高原生态系统宏观分布状况更为重要;② 综合生态系统结构、功能及气候和地形生境特征对脆弱性的影响,全区呈现从东南向西北综合脆弱性水平逐渐升高的趋势,在评估区范围内综合脆弱性等级为中等及以上的地区共占74%,整体脆弱性程度较大,其中综合脆弱性等级为很高水平的地区占了45.8%。明晰西藏高原自然生态系统的脆弱性程度及其空间分布特征,可为典型脆弱生态系统的监测和综合评估提供科学依据,进而有利于青藏地区生态环境治理工作的顺利进行。  相似文献   

15.
The Hexi Inland River Basin in an arid region of northwestern China was chosen as the study area for this research. The authors define the vulnerability of an oasis social-ecological system to glacier change; select 16 indicators from natural and socioeconomic systems according to exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity; and construct a vulnerability-assessment indicator system aimed at an inland river basin in the arid region of Northwestern China. Vulnerability of the oasis socialecological system affected by glacier change in the study area is evaluated by Spatial Principal Component Analysis(SPCA) under the circumstance of glacier change. The key factors affecting the vulnerability are analyzed. The vulnerability of the oasis social-ecological system in the Hexi Inland River Basin affected by glacier change is of more than medium grade, accounting for about 48.0% of the total number of counties in the study area. In terms of the spatial pattern of the vulnerability, the oasis economic belt is the most vulnerable. With the rapid development of the area's society and economy, the exposure of the system to glacial changes is significantly increased; and an increase in glacial meltwater is not enough to overcome the impact of increased exposure, which is the main reason for the high vulnerability. Based on the result of the vulnerability analysis and combined with the present industrial structure in the Hexi Inland River Basin, near-,medium-, and long-term adaptation initiatives are put forward in the article.  相似文献   

16.
赵昕奕  蔡运龙 《地理学报》2003,58(4):584-590
由于气候变化的不确定性,尤其由于区域对气候变化响应评价工作直接关系到区域气候变化对策的制定和区域发展,进行针对气候变化的响应研究比气候变化的影响评价研究更具现实意义。气候变化对区域土地利用会产生一系列的影响,这种影响作用下的区域的反应-相应的变化、必要的适应性调整和适应能力-即是对气候变化的响应。以敏感度和适应能力度量的脆弱性作为衡量区域对气候变化响应的指标,增强了不同研究工作的比较性,正在日益为有关学者接受,并在全球开始研究工作。本文对应用脆弱性理论进行区域气候变化响应研究做了有益的探索。选择气候变化的时间、空间变化明显的中国北方农牧业交错带的中段作为研究案例,分别对农牧业土地生产潜力相对气候变化的敏感度和区域对气候变化的适应能力进行了定量和半定量的计算与评价,从这两个方面给出脆弱性的表述作为对研究区域土地生产潜力对全球气候变化的响应评价。  相似文献   

17.
全球气候变化背景下生态系统的脆弱性评价   总被引：25，自引：4，他引：21  
未来100年气候变暖速度将比上一世纪提高2－10倍,势必对生态系统的格局、过程和服务功能产生巨大影响,威胁生态系统和社会经济的持续发展。因此评价全球气候变化背景下生态系统脆弱性是当前全球变化和生态系统研究的主要内容。由于气候变化以及生态系统对其响应和适应的复杂性,生态系统脆弱性评价进展缓慢。本文在阐明生态系统脆弱性概念的基础上,综述了近年来国内外关于气候变化对生态系统影响及其脆弱性评价研究的现状、方法,归纳和介绍了脆弱性评价研究的三种主要方法——模型模拟研究、指标评价研究以及类比研究,指出气候变化的脆弱性评价研究中存在的问题、不足以及今后的发展方向。  相似文献   

18.
The Senegal River Basin (SRB) is a shared watershed in West Africa which includes regions (the upper basin, valley, and delta), characterized by distinct environmental conditions. An important feature of the Senegal River flow volume historically was its inter- annual irregularity, which caused a major water resource constrain. This situation has been accentuated during the long-term drought (1969–1984) in the Sahel zone which highlights the vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change and variability. SRB is undergoing fundamental environmental, hydrologic, and socioeconomic transitions and represents a good illustration of sensitivity to climatic variations and opportunities for adaptation. This paper aims to study water resources systems under stress from climate variability and change in the Senegal River Basin. The results show (1) through the compilation of available data, information and knowledge (sedimentological, climatical, geological, environmental, archeological, etc.), the chronological consequences of climate change during the past millennium in West Africa, and also (2) an analysis of the recent impacts and vulnerability to climate change in the SRB and finally (3) the adaptation strategies in the SRB in order to identify and resolve problems associated with this water scarcity and to address the potential for guaranteed agricultural production in this narrow geographic area.  相似文献   

19.
Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology, and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study, LPJ model modified according to features of China's natural ecosystems was employed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2, B2 and A1B scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions, vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for China's natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west, but the pattern of ecosystem vulnerability would not be altered by climate change, which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in ecosystem vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale, natural ecosystem in China would be slightly affected by climate change. However, in mid-term and long-term scales, there would be severely adverse effect, particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition.  相似文献   

20.
Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology,and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study,LPJ model modified according to features of China's natural ecosystems was employed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2,B2 and A1B scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions,vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for China's natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west,but the pattern of ecosystem vulnerability would not be altered by climate change,which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in ecosystem vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale,natural ecosystem in China would be slightly affected by climate change. However,in mid-term and long-term scales,there would be severely adverse effect,particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition.  相似文献   

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