共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 138 毫秒
1.
《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2020,(2)
甘达基河流域(Gandaki River Basin,GRB)是喜马拉雅中部地区的一部分,该地区栖息着许多珍稀的野生动物。由于气候和人类活动的影响,许多珍稀保护物种的生境处于危险之中。本研究基于最大熵(MaxEnt)模型,运用生物气候、土地覆被和DEM数据,分析各环境要素对棕尾虹雉(Lophophorusimpejanus)的生境适宜性的影响,评估棕尾虹雉现在状况和未来栖息地分布的变化。研究表明,目前棕尾虹雉的高度适宜栖息地面积约为749 km~2,主要分布在流域北部、东部和西部,尤其是郎塘国家公园、马纳斯卢峰自然保护区和安纳布尔纳峰自然保护区等保护区内。到2050年,棕尾虹雉的高度适宜栖息地面积将减少至561 km~2,主要在流域北部和西北部(即Chhyo,Tatopani,Humde和Chame地区)。未来环境变化的模拟表明,由于适宜栖息地面积的减少,棕尾虹雉面临的生存风险将增加。 相似文献
2.
目前很少见到关于气候变化影响亚洲北山羊物种栖息地的研究。通过调查气候变化对塔吉克斯坦东部亚洲北山羊(Capra sibirica)分布的影响,并采用生态位建模比较了亚洲北山羊的适宜栖息地的当前与未来分布情况。预计到2070年,现有适宜栖息地的18%(2689 km^2)将变得不适宜亚洲北山羊的生存,损失的区域主要位于研究区域的东南部和西北部地区。新的适宜栖息地可能会扩展到当前亚洲北山羊范围之外:到2070年将扩展30%(4595 km^2)的范围,这些区域与亚洲北山羊现有的分布有很强的相关性。东南部的损失与该地区当前大多数的亚洲北山羊栖息地重叠,主要出现在比研究区域海拔低得多的区域(3500–4000 m)。当同时考虑损失和收益时,亚洲北山羊可能会净扩展到新的适宜栖息地。到2070年,亚洲北山羊的平均栖息地增加量约为30%(1379 km^2),表明适宜栖息地已向北部低温栖息地转移。研究结果有助于规划气候变化情景下塔吉克斯坦东部山区对生物多样性保护的潜在影响。应该特别注意东南地区的高地山羊种群,那里的栖息地可能由于气候对山区生态系统的影响而变得不适合该物种继续生存。 相似文献
3.
《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2017,(1)
柯西河流域是世界物种多样性最为丰富的地区之一,其生物多样性及其生境保护有重要的意义。本研究采用了当前和未来气候变化情景下的Worldclim和土地利用数据,选择Max Ent模型模拟柯西河流域关键保护物种的潜在分布及其变化状况。结果表明:该模型的总体准确率高,模型的评价效果达到优秀水平。陈塘镇、樟木镇、Lamabagar和Langtang国家公园附近河谷地区是关键保护物种的主要栖息地,是生境保护的重点区域。通过比较1992和2050的关键物种的分布数据,发现关键物种的潜在分布区均发生了较大变化。模拟结果显示在未来气候和土地利用变化情景下,黑颈鹤、参三七和长尾叶猴的栖息地均会减少,需针对这些物种的栖息地,重点开展柯西河流域湿地和森林的保护工作。 相似文献
4.
秃鹫提供了宝贵的生态系统服务,在生态系统平衡中发挥着重要作用,但印度本土秃鹫数量在过去几年有所下降。掌握秃鹫栖息地的分布现状对于管理和防止秃鹫数量继续下降至关重要。可以预见,目前的气候危机可能会进一步导致秃鹫生境适宜性的变化,并影响现存的秃鹫种群。因此,本研究利用物种分布模型,对印度中部一个秃鹫栖息地的短期和长期变化进行预测,并以统计和图形的方式呈现数据。选择MaxEnt软件进行预测,是因为它与其他模型相比具有一定的优势,如只使用现有数据,在数据不完整、样本量小、样本间隙小等情况下表现良好。采用全球气候模式集成学习算法(CCSM4、Had GEM2AO和MIROC5)以获得更好的预测结果。14个稳健模型(AUC 0.864–0.892)是利用7个秃鹫种群(长喙、白臀、红头、银灰色、埃及秃鹫、喜马拉雅和欧亚狮鹫)在两个季节共1000多个地点的数据建立的。选定的气候(温度和降水)和环境变量(NDVI、海拔和土地利用/土地覆盖)被用于预测当前栖息地,未来的预测只基于气候变量。影响秃鹫栖息地分布的最重要变量是降水量(bio 15,bio 18,bio19)和温度(bio 3,bio 5)。在目前的预测中,森林和水体是影响土地利用的主要因素。在较小尺度上,随着时间的推移,极端适宜的栖息地面积减少,高度适宜的栖息地面积增加,总适宜栖息地面积在2050年略有增加,但到2070年有所减少。在更大的尺度上考虑,2050年适宜栖息地的净损失为5%,2070年为7.17%(RCP4.5)。相似的,在RCP8.5下,2050年适宜栖息地的净损失为6%,2070年为7.3%。研究结果可用于制定秃鹫的保护规划和管理,从而保护其免受未来的气候变化等威胁。 相似文献
5.
《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2021,(1)
秃鹫提供了宝贵的生态系统服务,在生态系统平衡中发挥着重要作用,但印度本土秃鹫数量在过去几年有所下降。掌握秃鹫栖息地的分布现状对于管理和防止秃鹫数量继续下降至关重要。可以预见,目前的气候危机可能会进一步导致秃鹫生境适宜性的变化,并影响现存的秃鹫种群。因此,本研究利用物种分布模型,对印度中部一个秃鹫栖息地的短期和长期变化进行预测,并以统计和图形的方式呈现数据。选择MaxEnt软件进行预测,是因为它与其他模型相比具有一定的优势,如只使用现有数据,在数据不完整、样本量小、样本间隙小等情况下表现良好。采用全球气候模式集成学习算法(CCSM4、Had GEM2AO和MIROC5)以获得更好的预测结果。14个稳健模型(AUC 0.864–0.892)是利用7个秃鹫种群(长喙、白臀、红头、银灰色、埃及秃鹫、喜马拉雅和欧亚狮鹫)在两个季节共1000多个地点的数据建立的。选定的气候(温度和降水)和环境变量(NDVI、海拔和土地利用/土地覆盖)被用于预测当前栖息地,未来的预测只基于气候变量。影响秃鹫栖息地分布的最重要变量是降水量(bio 15,bio 18,bio19)和温度(bio 3,bio 5)。在目前的预测中,森林和水体是影响土地利用的主要因素。在较小尺度上,随着时间的推移,极端适宜的栖息地面积减少,高度适宜的栖息地面积增加,总适宜栖息地面积在2050年略有增加,但到2070年有所减少。在更大的尺度上考虑,2050年适宜栖息地的净损失为5%,2070年为7.17%(RCP4.5)。相似的,在RCP8.5下,2050年适宜栖息地的净损失为6%,2070年为7.3%。研究结果可用于制定秃鹫的保护规划和管理,从而保护其免受未来的气候变化等威胁。 相似文献
6.
基于HSI模型的扎龙国家级自然保护区丹顶鹤繁殖生境适宜性评价 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5
在对扎龙国家级自然保护区丹顶鹤(Grus japonensis)繁殖生境因子进行野外调查的基础上,利用地理信息系统技术,建立丹顶鹤繁殖生境适宜度指数(habitat suitability index, HSI)模型,对丹顶鹤的繁殖生境适宜性进行了定量评价,并对所建立的HSI模型精度进行了验证.结果表明,2003年扎龙国家级自然保护区丹顶鹤的适宜繁殖生境面积为385 km2,次适宜繁殖生境面积为204 km2,微适宜和非适宜繁殖生境面积合计为1 510 km2.丹顶鹤适宜繁殖生境呈条带状或块状分布,而且主要集中在扎龙国家级自然保护区的核心区内.利用HSI模型进行扎龙国家级自然保护区丹顶鹤繁殖生境适宜性评价是可行的. 相似文献
7.
滇金丝猴栖息地的空间格局分析 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
利用遥感与GIS技术提取了滇金丝猴(Rhinopithecus bieti)的现存栖息地、适宜栖息地和破碎化栖息地,分析了空间分布格局与现状.结果表明,在云南滇西北地区,现有滇金丝猴种群生存于白马雪山、攀天阁、老君山、黑山、富合山和龙马山这6片独立的栖息地之中,由于长期以来受人为活动影响,南部的黑山、富合山、龙马山破碎化严重,栖息地面积较小,已接近最小生境面积.白马雪山片区连通性好,老君山次之.攀天阁片区是白马雪山南端生境破碎化形成的,老君山周边区域破碎化严重.南部残存的破碎化栖息地是恢复生境和走廊带栖息的基础,各区域都具有一定的建立走廊带的条件,但仅有老君山到攀天阁的廊带建设较为容易,而南部的其它区域廊带建设较为困难.北部羊拉片区、南部的剑川片区、最南部的苍山片区都是滇金丝猴的适宜栖息地,可作为迁地保护的备选区域. 相似文献
8.
《中国沙漠》2019,(3)
蒙古沙拐枣(Calligonum mongolicum)是中国干旱、荒漠地区主要的防风固沙植物,预测该气候变化对其地理分布范围的影响,对中国荒漠化防治工作具有指导意义。采用获得的蒙古沙拐枣108个种群分布数据和22个气候环境因子数据,利用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型软件预测蒙古沙拐枣在当前、2041—2060年及2061—2080年在中国干旱区的潜在地理分布,探究气候变化对该物种分布的可能影响。结果表明:(1)影响蒙古沙拐枣分布的主要气候环境因子为年降水量、年平均气温、气温年较差、最干季降雨量以及海拔;(2)目前,蒙古沙拐枣的适宜生境面积约为5.4×10~5 km~2,高适宜生境为7×10~4 km~2,主要分布在新疆塔里木盆地、准噶尔盆地边缘地带、甘肃河西走廊及其周边、腾格里沙漠;(3)在未来气候变化的情景下,蒙古沙拐枣的适宜生境范围大幅增加,适宜生境向高纬度地区移动,高适宜生境集中分布于甘肃河西走廊以及腾格里沙漠地区,且呈带状分布。 相似文献
9.
《中国沙漠》2021,(3)
气候变化影响植物物种地理分布,研究不同气候情景下物种的地理分布有助于物种保护和资源合理利用。为准确了解西藏沙棘(Hippophae thibetana)种植适宜生境,本研究收集了118个西藏沙棘种群分布点、19个气候因子和3个地形因子数据,利用MaxEnt(最大熵)模型和ArcGIS软件平台模拟了当前气候情景下西藏沙棘的适宜生境,探讨影响其生长的主导因子及阈值,并对其在4种不同气候情景下2041—2060年和2061—2080年的适宜生境进行预测。结果表明:(1)当前西藏沙棘高适宜生境和适宜生境面积分别为33.32万km~2和51.65万km~2,主要分布于青藏高原,集中在西藏、四川、青海和甘肃;(2)影响西藏沙棘地理分布的主导因子是海拔、最湿季降水量、最冷季平均温度,其中各因子的适宜生长阈值分别为:海拔2 500—4 800 m,最湿季降水量200—420 mm,最冷季平均温度-12—0℃;(3)未来不同气候情景下,西藏沙棘的高适宜生境、适宜生境和低适宜生境面积均出现缩减。该研究有助于西藏沙棘的野生资源保护、开发利用和扩大种植。 相似文献
10.
扎龙保护区丹顶鹤栖息地适宜性评价 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
结合TM影像和ENVISAT ASAR(HH/HV)数据,以扎龙保护区丹顶鹤栖息地为研究对象,在分布式定量提取评价因子(植被类型、生境结构、巢下水深、植被盖度、人为干扰)的基础上,建立HSI模型对丹顶鹤栖息地质量进行评价,并根据实测巢址空间分布情况对评价结果进行验证。结果表明:基于主观专家知识建立的HSI模型得到丹顶鹤高适宜栖息地面积为48km2,适宜栖息地面积为265km2,低适宜栖息地面积为385km2,不适宜栖息地面积为1 403km2,结合实测数据验证,得出高适宜、适宜和低适宜栖息地巢址共占实测巢址的92.86%,不适宜栖息地巢址占7.14%。经检验HSI模型对淡水沼泽湿地典型水禽栖息地的质量评价有良好的适用性。 相似文献
11.
Raju RAI ZHANG Yili LIU Linshan Paras Bikram SINGH Basanta PAUDEL Bipin Kumar ACHARYA Narendra Raj KHANAL 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2022,13(2):173-185
Gandaki River Basin (GRB) is an important part of the central Himalayan region, which provides habitat for numerous wild species. However, climatic changes are making the habitat in this basin more vulnerable. This paper aims to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the spatial distributions of habitat changes for two vulnerable species, Himalayan black bear (Ursus thibetanus laniger) and common leopard (Panthera pardus fusca), using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution model. Species occurrence locations were used along with several bioclimatic and topographic variables (elevation, slope and aspect) to fit the model and predict the potential distributions (current and future) of the species. The results show that the highly suitable area of Himalayan black bear within the GRB currently encompasses around 1642 km2 (5.01% area of the basin), which is predicted to increase by 51 km2 in the future (2050). Similarly, the habitat of common leopard is estimated as 3999 km2 (12.19% of the GRB area), which is likely to increase to 4806 km2 in 2050. Spatially, the habitat of Himalayan black bear is predicted to increase in the eastern part (Baseri, Tatopani and north from Bhainse) and to decrease in the eastern (Somdang, Chhekampar), western (Burtibang and Bobang) and northern (Sangboche, Manang, Chhekampar) parts of the study area. Similarly, the habitat of common leopard is projected to decrease particularly in the eastern, western and southern parts of the basin, although it is estimated to be extended in the southeastern (Bhainse), western (Harichaur and northern Sandhikhark) and north-western (Sangboche) parts of the basin. To determine the habitat impact, the environmental variables such as elevation, Bio 15 (precipitation seasonality) and Bio 16 (precipitation of wettest quarter) highly contribute to habitat change of Himalayan black bear; while Bio 13 (precipitation of wettest month) and Bio 15 are the main contributors for common leopard. Overall, this study predicted that the suitable habitat areas of both species are likely to be impacted by climate change at different altitudes in the future, and these are the areas that need more attention in order to protect these species. 相似文献
12.
Because of its landscape heterogeneity, Koshi Basin (KB) is home to one of the world’s most abundant, diverse group of species. Habitat change evaluations for key protected species are very important for biodiversity protection in this region. Based on current and future world climate and land cover data, MaxEnt model was used to simulate potential habitat changes for key protected species. The results shows that the overall accuracy of the model is high (AUC > 0.9), suggesting that the MaxEnt-derived distributions are a close approximation of real-world distribution probabilities. The valley around Chentang Town and Dram Town in China, and Lamabagar and the northern part of Landtang National Park in Nepal are the most important regions for the protection of the habitat in KB. The habitat area of Grus nigricollis, Panax pseudoginseng, and Presbytis entellus is expected to decrease in future climate and land cover scenarios. More focus should be placed on protecting forests and wetlands since these are the main habitats for these species. 相似文献
13.
2003—2017年植被变化对全球陆面蒸散发的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
蒸散发是陆面水循环的关键环节和过程,是研究水循环对人类活动和气候变化响应的关键要素。过去十几年,全球下垫面的植被变化剧烈,但如何影响全球陆面蒸散发仍未得到清晰的揭示。本文采用500 m分辨率MODIS数据驱动PML-V2模型,定量解析了2003—2017年植被变化对全球陆面蒸散发的影响。结果显示：在全球尺度上,植被变绿使得全球蒸散发呈现显著的增加趋势,使陆地水循环加快;区域尺度上,植被变化对蒸散发的影响则存在明显的地带性和非地带性特征,如在北美洲中北部、欧洲、中国东部、非洲南部和澳大利亚东北部等地区,蒸散发总量的增加主要是由植被蒸腾增加而引起的。分析不同植被功能类型区的贡献显示,下垫面变化对灌木和耕地影响尤为明显,并在2012年以后呈现增强趋势;这2个植被类型区的全球年总蒸散发累积增加量为0.41×103 km3 a-1,约为黄河流域多年平均径流量的8倍。该研究结果有助于进一步加强关于下垫面变化对陆地水循环的影响及其可能带来的局部气候变化的认识。 相似文献
14.
Pengtao Wang Liwei Zhang Yingjie Li Lei Jiao Hao Wang Junping Yan Yihe Lü Bojie Fu 《地理学报(英文版)》2018,28(10):1385-1398
Extreme rainstorm and the subsequent flood increasingly threaten the security of human society and ecological environment with aggravation of global climate change and anthropogenic activity in recent years. Therefore, the research on flood mitigation service (FMS) of ecosystem should be paid more attention to mitigate the risk. In this paper, we assessed FMS in the Upper Reaches of Hanjiang River (URHR), China from 2000 to 2014 using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) model, and further simulated the future FMS under two climate scenarios (in 2020 and 2030). The results reveal that the FMS presented a fluctuating rising trend in the URHR from 2000 to 2014. The FMS in southern URHR was higher than that of northern URHR, and the change rate of FMS in the upstream of URHR (western URHR) was higher than the downstream of URHR (eastern URHR). The future FMS under scenarios of Medium-High Emissions (A2) and Medium-Low Emissions (B2) will decrease consistently. As land use/land cover changes in the URHR are negligible, we concluded that the change in FMS was mainly driven by climate change, such as storm and runoff. Our study highlights that climate scenarios analysis should be incorporated into the assessment of hydrologic-related services to facilitate regional water resources management. 相似文献
15.
Bray J. Beltrán Janet Franklin Alexandra D. Syphard Helen M. Regan Lorraine E. Flint Alan L. Flint 《International journal of geographical information science》2014,28(8):1561-1589
Climate and land-use changes are projected to threaten biodiversity over this century. However, few studies have considered the spatial and temporal overlap of these threats to evaluate how ongoing land-use change could affect species ranges projected to shift outside conservation areas. We evaluated climate change and urban development effects on vegetation distribution in the Southwest ecoregion, California Floristic Province, USA. We also evaluated how well a conservation network protects suitable habitat for rare plant species under these change projections and identified primary sources of uncertainty. We used consensus-based maps from three species distribution models (SDMs) to project current and future suitable habitat for 19 species representing different functional types (defined by fire-response – obligate seeders, resprouting shrubs – and life forms – herbs, subshrubs), and range sizes (large/common, small/rare). We used one spatially explicit urban growth projection; two climate models, emission scenarios, and probability thresholds applied to SDMs; and high-resolution (90 m) environmental data. We projected that suitable habitat could disappear for 4 species and decrease for 15 by 2080. Averaged centroids of suitable habitat (all species) were projected to shift tens (up to hundreds) of kilometers. Herbs showed a small-projected response to climate change, while obligate seeders could suffer the greatest losses. Several rare species could lose suitable habitat inside conservation areas while increasing area outside. We concluded that (i) climate change is more important than urban development for vegetation habitat loss in this ecoregion through 2080 due to diminishing amounts of undeveloped private land in this region; (ii) the existing conservation plan, while extensive, may be inadequate to protect plant diversity under projected patterns of climate change and urban development, (iii) regional assessments of the dynamics of the drivers of biodiversity change based on high-resolution environmental data and consensus predictive mapping, such as this study, are necessary to identify the species expected to be the most vulnerable and to meaningfully inform regional-scale conservation. 相似文献
16.
气候是影响植被类型和分布的关键因素,植被类型和分布格局也能反映气候的地域差异。随着气候变暖,全球气温和降水格局都将发生变化,植被类型和分布格局也将随之改变。而植物对气候变化的响应存在一定的滞后性,因此仅用气候指标研究亚热带北界及其移动具有一定的局限性。以青冈（Cyclobalanopsis glauca (Thunberg) Oersted）为研究对象,应用最大熵模型（Maxent）,研究了其对气候变化的响应并探讨了气候变化情景下青冈分布格局变化对中国亚热带北界移动的指示意义。结果表明：影响青冈分布的主导环境因子为年降水量、最冷季降水量、气温年变化范围和最冷月最低气温;随着气候变暖,青冈分布北界将向北移动,其分布质心亦向西北移动,预示着在气候变暖的背景下,到21世纪中叶中国亚热带北界将向北移动约1个纬度。 相似文献
17.
WU Xue PAUDEL Basanta ZHANG Yili LIU Linshan WANG Zhaofeng XIE Fangdi GAO Jungang SUN Xiaomin 《地理学报(英文版)》2021,31(10):1419-1436
The study of mountain vertical natural belts is an important component in the study of regional differentiation.These areas are especially sensitive to climate change and have indicative function,which is the core of three-dimensional zonality research.Thus,based on high precision land cover and digital elevation model (DEM) data,and supported by MATLAB and ArcGIS analyses,this paper aimed to study the present situation and changes of the land cover vertical belts between 1990 and 2015 on the northern and southern slopes of the Koshi River Basin (KRB).Results showed that the vertical belts on both slopes were markedly dif-ferent from one another.The vertical belts on the southern slope were mainly dominated by cropland,forest,bare land,and glacier and snow cover.In contrast,grassland,bare land,sparse vegetation,glacier and snow cover dominated the northern slope.Study found that the main vertical belts across the KRB within this region have not changed substantially over the past 25 years.In contrast,on the southern slope,the upper limits of cropland and bare land have moved to higher elevation,while the lower limits of forest and glacier and snow cover have moved to higher elevation.The upper limit of alpine grassland on the northern slope retreated and moved to higher elevation,while the lower limits of glacier and snow cover and vegetation moved northward to higher elevations.Changes in the vertical belt were influenced by climate change and human activities over time.Cropland was mainly controlled by human activities and climate warming,and the reduced precipitation also led to the abandonment of cropland,at least to a certain extent.Changes in grassland and forest ecosystems were predominantly influenced by both human activities and climate change.At the same time,glacier and snow cover far away from human activities was also mainly influenced by climate warming. 相似文献
18.
Jun-hui Liu Ji-xi GaoShi-Hai Lv Yong-wei HanYi-huang Nie 《Journal of Arid Environments》2011,75(3):298-308
Meteorological records show a rise in temperature and decrease in precipitation in most parts of the farming-pastoral ecotone of Northern China over the last 50 years. During the last quarter of the 20th Century, the agrarian sector went through a series of reforms and changes in government policies on land use that have led to extensive changes in land cover. The objective of this study was to redefine the location and analyze the boundary variations under the effects of climate and land use changes in the farming-pastoral ecotone of Northern China. The results showed that the location of study area has been redefined as both a climatic ecotone from the perspective of suitability of precipitation and temperature for agricultural crops and vegetation growth, and also a land use ecotone based on the impacts of farmland restructuring by government policies on land use. In recent decades, the climatic boundary has moved southeast while the land use boundary has moved northwest, showing opposing directions of change. The extent of boundary changes in the northeast and northern sections are far greater than in the northwestern section of the farming-pastoral ecotone of Northern China. 相似文献
19.
In this study we investigated the effect of different land use options (wildlife versus livestock) on species richness of plants and reptiles in the protected Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park (KTP) versus adjacent non-protected farmland within the same savanna habitat type (Aoub dune veld) in the southern Kalahari, South Africa. Our results show that both plant and reptile species richness as well as plant cover and reptile abundance was significantly higher in the protected KTP than in the non-protected farmland. The higher proportion of shrub but lower proportions of perennial grass cover, herb cover, and herb species richness in the farmland can be explained by higher stocking rates and the differences in feeding behaviour between native wild ungulates (e.g. Antidorcas marsupialis, Oryx gazella) and livestock (mainly sheep). The reptile’s prey availability and microhabitats (perennial grass tussocks and rodent burrows) for thermoregulation and protection against predators were significantly lower in the farmland. To conclude, our results clearly show that long term effects of different land use options (wildlife in protected KTP versus extensive livestock production in the non-protected farmland) even within the same habitat type have led to significant changes in vegetation composition, availability of microhabitat structures and in the reptile community. 相似文献