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1.
耦合魔方——一个分析人地系统耦合机理的多维框架 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
Understanding the interactions between humans and nature in the Anthropocene is central to the quest for both human wellbeing and global sustainability.However,the time-space compression,long range interactions,and reconstruction of socio-economic structures at the global scale all pose great challenges to the traditional analytical frameworks of human-nature systems.In this paper,we extend the connotation of coupled human and natural systems(CHANS)and their four dimensions—space,time,appearance,and organization,and propose a novel framework:“Coupled Human and Natural Cube”(CHNC)to explain the coupling mechanism between humans and the natural environment.Our proposition is inspired by theories based on the human-earth areal system,telecoupling framework,planetary urbanization,and perspectives from complexity science.We systematically introduce the concept,connotation,evolution rules,and analytical dimensions of the CHNC.Notably there exist various“coupling lines”in the CHNC,connecting different systems and elements at multiple scales and forming a large,nested,interconnected,organic system.The rotation of the CHNC represents spatiotemporal nonlinear fluctuations in CHANS in different regions.As a system continually exchanges energy with the environment,a critical phase transition occurs when fluctuations reach a certain threshold,leading to emergent behavior of the system.The CHNC has four dimensions—pericoupling and telecoupling,syncoupling and lagcoupling,apparent coupling and hidden coupling,and intra-organization coupling and inter-organizational coupling.We mainly focus on the theoretical connotation,research methods,and typical cases of telecoupling,lagcoupling,hidden coupling,and inter-organizational coupling,and put forward a human-nature coupling matrix to integrate multiple dimensions.In summary,the CHNC provides a more comprehensive and systematic research paradigm for understanding the evolution and coupling mechanism of the human-nature system,which expands the analytical dimension of CHANS.The CHNC also provides a theoretical support for formulating regional,sustainable development policies for human wellbeing. 相似文献
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By statistically analyzing the storm data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC) over the Bengal Bay during the period 1945-2006,it is found that the yearly averaged tropical cyclone(TC) number over the Bay of Bengal is 8.12,which takes place in any month of the whole year;February and March have the fewest TC numbers.The TC numbers begin to increase starting in April and arrive at a peak in October.Differing from TC over the Bay of Bengal,the tropical storms(TS) over the Bay of Bengal has two peak periods,appear in May and in October or November,respectively.With regard to TS intensity,the super severe storm of H4 criterion appeared only one time during the period 1971-1986,but appeared eight times during the period 1987-2006.The monthly change of the original position,the averaged maintaining time,and the longest maintaining time of TS also have two peak values:They appear in April or May and in October or November,respectively.The peak value of the original position in October or November is bigger than that in April or May.The peak value of the average maintaining time and the longest main-taining time of the TS in April or May is bigger than that in October or November.TC landfall path is mostly moving toward northwest or west and accounts for 56.7 percent.The landfall path of the TS differs from that of TC in some respects.The main difference is that the numbers of the northwestern path and un-landfall of TS are less than those for TC,and the numbers of the western path and northeastern path of TS are greater than for TC.Because of the landfall TS in the north-east path has a peak,it and the beginning of the rainy season in Yunnan Province are closely related;it is on Yunnan Province’s early summer precipita-tion that they have a great impact. 相似文献
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The Three Gorges Reservoir Area(TGRA)is typical of an ecologically vulnerable area,comprised of rural and mountainous areas,and with high immigration.Because of its economic and ecologic importance,studying the traditional agroecosystem changes in the TGRA is key to rural development and revitalization.In this study,we apply a framework of theoretical analysis,empirical study,and trend prediction to the Caotangxi River watershed within the TGRA.Using QuickBird high-resolution remote sensing images from 2012 to 2017 to evaluate natural resources and farmers’behavior,we analyze the transition and trends in the traditional agroecosystem in mountainous areas of the TGRA at spatial scale of the man-land relationship.We find that the agroecosystem in the TGRA can be divided into four modes using 100 m interval buffer rings:high-low-low,high-low-high,low-high-low and low-low-high mode where the different modes represent the agricultural development stages in the TGRA.Furthermore,the traditional agroecosystem in TGRA,represented by system elements such as farmers and sloping farmland,is transforming to accommodate the diversification of farmer livelihoods.For example,sloping farmland,which was dominated by a production function,now has equal emphasis on ecological and economic functions.Spatially,the range of the agroecosystem transition has migrated beyond high mountain areas to flat valley areas.Generally,this study provides an overview of land use in rural areas,controls on soil and water loss in mountainous areas,and better rural living environments in the TGRA. 相似文献
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Root distribution of three co-occurring desert shrubs and their physiological response to precipitation 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Root distribution of three desert shrubs,Tamarix ramosissima Ledeb.,Haloxylon ammodendron(C.A.Mey.) Bunge and Reaumuria soongorica(Pall.) Maxim.was investigated under co-occurring conditions using a method for excavating the whole root system.Assimilation shoot water potential and transpiration rates were monitored during the wet-dry cycle.Leaf-specific apparent hydraulic conductance and the index of water stress impact for the three species were calculated from shoot water potential and transpiration rate.The results showed that,along the soil profile,the root system of T.ramosissima mainly distributed at 50 to 310 cm interval,with an average total absorbing root-surface area of 30,249.2 cm2 per plant;the root system of H.ammodendraom distributed at 0 to 250 cm interval with an average total absorbing root-surface area of 12,847.3 cm2 per plant;the root system of R.soongorica distributed at 0-80 cm interval,with an average total absorbing root-surface area of 361.8 cm2.The root distribution shows the following:T.ramosissima uses groundwater as its main water source;H.ammodendraom uses both groundwater and rainwater;and R.soongorica uses rainwater only.During the wet-dry cycle,the hydraulic parameters of T.ramosissima showed no responses to precipitation.R.soongorica responded most significantly,and the responses of H.ammodendraom were intermediate.In conclusion,the plant response to rain events is closely related to their root distribution and plant water-use strategy. 相似文献
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地理双语教学要求师生同时具备对地理学科的汉语思维和英语思维的能力。如在介绍美国工业部门及分布时，学生对其理解都比较抽象，怎样让他们快速掌握城市和工业的分布呢?可以先请对NBA感兴趣的同学介绍几支球队情况，要求学生从这些球队的名称上来理解课文的内容。(如The Detroit Pistons底特律活塞队：The name“Pistons”refers to a key part of an automobile engine活塞一词是指汽车发动机的关键部件；The Houston Rockets休斯顿火箭队：The NASA Mission Control Centeris located in Houston美国宇航局控制中心位于休斯顿。) 相似文献
6.
长江上游退耕还林工程的农业生产和水环境效益评价——以四川省为例 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
退耕还林工程是我国大规模的土地利用方式的改变.以四川省为例,基于退耕还林工程实施后粮食产量、粮食作物播种面积、化肥用量以及水质和水土流失状况变化的分析,讨论了退耕还林工程对环境保护的贡献和可能存在的问题.退耕还林工程导致粮食作物播种面积、粮食产量和化肥用量的减少,在退耕还林工程实施前,这三者之间有很好的相关性,但自工程实施后,这三者的下降幅度与退耕还林面积的增加幅度有较大的差异.几种原因可能造成这种不一致性,值得进一步研究.退耕还林工程实施后河流径流量、泥沙含量以及输沙量的下降充分证实了退耕还林工程对长江上游水土保持的重要贡献,同时进一步证实长江上游的泥沙主要来源于坡耕地的耕作. 相似文献
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Extreme weather is an important noise factor in affecting dynamic access to river morphology information.The response characteristics of river channel on climate disturbances draw us to develop a method to investigate the dynamic evolution of bankfull channel geometries(including the hydraulic geometry variables and bankfull discharges)with stochastic differential equations in this study.Three different forms of random inputs,including single Gaussian white noise and compound Gaussian/Fractional white noise plus Poisson noise,are explored respectively on the basis of the classical deterministic models.The model parameters are consistently estimated by applying a composite nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation(MLE)method.Results of the model application in the Lower Yellow River reveal the potential responses of bankfull channel geometries to climate disturbances in a probabilistic way,and,the calculated average trends mainly run to synchronize with the measured values.Comparisons among the three models confirm the advantage of Fractional jump-diffusion model,and through further discussion,stream power based on such a model is concluded as a better systematic measure of river dynamics.The proposed method helps to offer an effective tool for analyzing fluvial relationships and improves the ability of crisis management of river system under varying environment conditions. 相似文献
9.
Understanding how the transpiration of this vegetation type responds to environmental stress is important for determining the wa-ter-balance dynamics of the riparian ecosystem threatened by groundwater depletion. Transpiration and sap flow were measured using the heat-pulse technique. The results were then projected up to the stand level to investigate the stand’s water-use in relation to climate forcing in the desert riparian forest in an extreme arid region. This study took place from April through October 2003 and from May through October 2004. The experimental site was selected in the Populus euphratica Forest Reserve (101o10’ E, 41o59’ N) in Ejina county, in the lower Heihe River basin, China. The sapwood area was used as a scalar to extrapolate the stand-water consumption from the whole trees’ water consumption measured by the heat-pulse velocity recorder (HPVR). Scale transferring from a series of individual trees to a stand was done according to the existing natural variations between trees under given environmental conditions. The application of the biometric parameters available from individual tree and stand levels was proved suitable for this purpose. A significant correlation between the sapwood area and tree diameter at breast height (DBH) was found. The prediction model is well fitted by the power model. On the basis of the prediction model, the sapwood area can be cal-culated by DBH. The sap-flow density can then be used to extrapolate the stand-water use by means of a series of mathematical models. 相似文献
10.
中国地理学会地貌与第四纪专业委员会 《地理学报》2008,63(1):111-111
2007年全国地貌与第四纪学术研讨会于2007年11月20日-22日在福建师范大学隆重召开.本次会议由中国地理学会地貌与第四纪专业委员会主办,福建师范大学地理科学学院承办.来自全国31个研究所、大学等单位的86位代表参加了这次会议.大会开幕式由中国地理学会地貌与第四纪专业委员会副主任杨小平研究员主持.福建师范大学生态文明所所长廖福霖教授致辞.中国地理学会地貌与第四纪专业委员会主任许炯心研究员做了主题发言. 相似文献
11.
Dryness and wetness variations on different time scales in Shanghai were analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) based on monthly precipitation data for 1873–2005. The SPI on scales of 3, 6, 12 and 24 months has been calculated. The SPI on 3, 6, 12 and 24 months present 4 wet periods prevailed during 1873–1885, 1904–1923, 1938–1960 and 1983–2005, and 3 dry episodes during 1886–1903, 1924–1937 and 1961–1982. Significant periods of higher wavelet power in the SPI-24 months occurred on the time scales of 2–7-year band in around 1880–1890, 1910–1950 and 1970–1990, and at 8–15-year band in 1920–1960 and 1965–2000 respectively. Periodicities in the SOI and ENSO indices are similar to those in SPI-24 months with little difference, namely, in the SPI-24 months, there are significant periods at the 2–7- and 8–15-year bands during 1930–1940. The periodicity components in individual SPI-24 months, SOI and ENSO indices are more complicated, showing the wetness and dryness variability in Shanghai is controlled by more than one physical factors. The research results indicate that the Shanghai area has experienced dryness and wetness variability on different time scales during the past 133 years. 相似文献
12.
Dryness and wetness variations on different time scales in Shanghai were analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index
(SPI) based on monthly precipitation data for 1873–2005. The SPI on scales of 3, 6, 12 and 24 months has been calculated.
The SPI on 3, 6, 12 and 24 months present 4 wet periods prevailed during 1873–1885, 1904–1923, 1938–1960 and 1983–2005, and
3 dry episodes during 1886–1903, 1924–1937 and 1961–1982. Significant periods of higher wavelet power in the SPI-24 months
occurred on the time scales of 2–7-year band in around 1880–1890, 1910–1950 and 1970–1990, and at 8–15-year band in 1920–1960
and 1965–2000 respectively. Periodicities in the SOI and ENSO indices are similar to those in SPI-24 months with little difference,
namely, in the SPI-24 months, there are significant periods at the 2–7- and 8–15-year bands during 1930–1940. The periodicity
components in individual SPI-24 months, SOI and ENSO indices are more complicated, showing the wetness and dryness variability
in Shanghai is controlled by more than one physical factors. The research results indicate that the Shanghai area has experienced
dryness and wetness variability on different time scales during the past 133 years.
Foundation: Frontier Project of Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, CAS, No.CXNIGLAS200814; National Forestry Science and Technique
Foundation during the 11th Five-Year Plan Period, No.2006BAD03A1601; Project of Huaihe River Basin, No.HRM200708; National
Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, No.CCSF2007-35
Author: Zhang Zengxin (1977–), Ph.D, specialized in climatic changes. 相似文献
13.
1960—2017年中国北方气候干湿变化及其与ENSO的关系 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于中国北方424个气象站实测数据，应用FAO Penman-Monteith模型计算潜在蒸散（Potential evapotranspiration，ET0），使用降水和潜在蒸散数据计算得到标准化降水蒸散发指数（SPEI），以此研究了1960—2017年中国北方干湿时空变化特征，分析了ENSO对北方气候干湿变化的影响。结果表明：中国北方干湿变化的线性趋势总体不显著，四季中春季和冬季变湿趋势明显。空间上，西北西部存在明显的变湿趋势，干旱化趋势主要发生在黄土高原、内蒙古东部和东北东部地区。全区各级干旱事件呈减少趋势，各级湿润事件呈增加趋势，其中以中等干旱的减少最为显著。西北西部中等干旱和极端干旱明显减少，东北北部和新疆部分地区极端湿润明显增加。全区四季3类干旱事件均表现为减少的趋势，3类湿润事件均表现为增加的趋势，西北西部四季3类干旱事件均呈减少趋势。ENSO对北方干湿的影响存在一定程度的滞后性。El Ni?o翌年气候湿润，La Nina翌年气候干旱。在年际和春季2个尺度上，SSTA与翌年SPEI存在显著的正相关关系。 相似文献
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提高干旱预测精度能为流域干旱应对及风险防范提供可靠数据支撑,构建比选合适的干旱模型是当前研究的热点。研究以4个时间尺度（3、6、9、12月）标准化降水指数（SPI）为表征指标,利用小波神经网络（WNN）、支持向量回归（SVR）、随机森林（RF）三种机器学习算法分别构建了海河北系干旱预测模型,利用Kendall、K-S、MAE三种检验方法判定模型表现及其稳定性。研究表明：（1） WNN、SVR模型呈现结果在不同时间尺度SPI存在差异,WNN最适合12个月尺度SPI干旱预测;SVR最适合6个月尺度SPI干旱预测。（2） 对3、12个月尺度SPI,RF预测性能最优（Kendall>0.898,MAE<0.05）;对6、9个月尺度SPI,SVR预测性能最优（Kendall>0.95,MAE<0.04）。（3） 模型预测性能稳定性存在区别,RF预测稳定性最高,其次为SVR。（4） 构建的三种模型表现异同主要是因为SVR转为凸优化问题解决了WNN易陷入局部最优解的不足,从而提高了模型预测性能,RF集成多样化回归树,降低了弱学习器的负面影响,提高了模型预测准确率及稳定性,同时,RF处理包含噪声的降水数据的能力更强。 相似文献
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《自然地理学》2013,34(1):76-96
Regions based on seasonal precipitation variability for Hawaii are determined using a principal components analysis applied to 124 stations for the period 1971-2000. Nine regions are delineated and are consistent with known precipitation patterns; leeward and windward stations are in separate regions on all islands. Within each region, the relationship between precipitation and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is examined using a correlation analysis with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and the Niño 3.4 and Niño 1+2 indices. Precipitation is most frequently correlated with ENSO in the different regions using SOI and Niño 3.4. Using several nonparametric statistical tests, it is determined that while average precipitation received in Hawaii during El Niño events is significantly different from average precipitation (1971-2000) and from precipitation received during La Niña events, the relationship between precipitation and individual ENSO events within regions is rarely significant. Finally, during El Niño or La Niña events, average precipitation receipt across the regions co-varies during winter and summer under concurrent conditions and a one-season lag. Synoptic patterns are examined and indicate a deviation from average conditions during ENSO events that affects subsidence and precipitation patterns. 相似文献
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选取1951~2013年韶关市分月降雨量数据,采用月降雨侵蚀力模型计算降雨侵蚀力,分析ENSO（厄尔尼诺-南方涛动）对韶关市降雨侵蚀力的影响。研究表明：① 韶关市降雨侵蚀力年际变化和年内变化较大,总体呈现波动上升趋势;② 降雨侵蚀力与赤道太平洋SST距平值呈现极显著相关,降雨侵蚀力随SST距平值增加呈现先增加后递减的趋势。ENSO冷暖事件发生时降雨侵蚀力较小,在其它土壤侵蚀因素不变的条件下,此时期的土壤侵蚀相对较轻;③ 降雨侵蚀力与SOI存在显著相关,降雨侵蚀力随着SOI增加而减小;④ 降雨侵蚀力与MEI呈现极显著的正相关关系。 相似文献
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淮河流域洪涝特征初步研究 总被引：20，自引：3，他引：17
本文以《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》为基础,采用一定的洪涝指标计算方法,建立了淮河流域近500年洪涝序列。在此基础上,从统计特征、时序特征和分形特征等方面讨论了淮河流域洪涝的基本特征。分析表明,淮河流域各等级洪涝具有较高的发生频次,且具有相对集中性特点和一定的持续发生机率;淮河流域洪涝具有不同长度的阶段性或周期性,存在约460年、150年和60-80年的周期及一些更小尺度的波动;淮河流域洪涝具有一定标度范围内的统计分形特征,时间分维值随洪涝强度的增加而降低,与洪涝周期呈反相关关系。时间分维是描述洪涝特征的一个较好的物理量,可能对揭示洪涝规律和进行有效预报具有重要作用。 相似文献
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宁夏降水变化及其与ENSO事件的关系 总被引：21，自引：7，他引：14
分析1959~2001年的月降水数据发现:20世纪60~80年代宁夏降水有较明显的干旱趋势,但90年代降水较80年代有所增加。功率谱分析表明,ENSO和宁夏降水具有一致的变化周期,即14年、3.75年、准2年和1.5年。宁夏降水对EL Nino事件达到最显著响应需要滞后2~4个月,而对LA Nina事件的响应比对EL Nina迅速,只需滞后1~2个月便达到最显著响应。ENSO对宁夏不同季节降水的影响差异很大。EL Nino发生4个月后,春、夏、秋三个季节降水都偏少,但冬季降水却是增加了。LA Nina发生1个月后,夏、秋、冬三个季节降水都偏多,但春季降水减少了。EL Nino事件发生期间,宁夏年降水偏少28 mm,占常年降水量的10%,而LA Nina发生期间,年降水偏多24 mm,占年降水量9%。 相似文献
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北京地区旱涝变化规律及其预测试验 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5
本文提出用年旱涝指数来研究气候变化规律,具有一定的物理意义及代表性。对北京地区旱涝变化规律分析表明:有5年及22年周期变化规律。 在旱涝预测方面,本文还提出一种新的时间序列预测方法——周期模式法,它较之传统的方差分析方法具有较多的优越性。用它对北京地区年度旱涝趋势作预测试验。 相似文献