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1.
This study evaluates how users incorporate visualisation of flood uncertainty information in decision-making. An experiment was conducted where participants were given the task to decide building locations, taking into account homeowners’ preferences as well as dilemmas imposed by flood risks at the site. Two general types of visualisations for presenting uncertainties from ensemble modelling were evaluated: (1) uncertainty maps, which used aggregated ensemble results; and (2) performance bars showing all individual simulation outputs from the ensemble. Both were supplemented with either two-dimensional (2D) or three-dimensional (3D) contextual information, to give an overview of the area.

The results showed that the type of uncertainty visualisation was highly influential on users’ decisions, whereas the representation of the contextual information (2D or 3D) was not. Visualisation with performance bars was more intuitive and effective for the task performed than the uncertainty map. It clearly affected users’ decisions in avoiding certain-to-be-flooded areas. Patterns to which the distances were decided from the homeowners’ preferred positions and the uncertainties were similar, when the 2D and 3D map models were used side by side with the uncertainty map. On the other hand, contextual information affected the time to solve the task. With the 3D map, it took the participants longer time to decide the locations, compared with the other combinations using the 2D model.

Designing the visualisation so as to provide more detailed information made respondents avoid dangerous decisions. This has also led to less variation in their overall responses.  相似文献   


2.
Many techniques have been proposed for visualizing uncertainty in geospatial data. Previous empirical research on the effectiveness of visualizations of geospatial uncertainty has focused primarily on user intuitions rather than objective measures of performance when reasoning under uncertainty. Framed in the context of Google’s blue dot, we examined the effectiveness of four alternative visualizations for representing positional uncertainty when reasoning about self-location data. Our task presents a mobile mapping scenario in which GPS satellite location readings produce location estimates with varying levels of uncertainty. Given a known location and two smartphone estimates of that known location, participants were asked to judge which smartphone produces the better location reading, taking uncertainty into account. We produced visualizations that vary by glyph type (uniform blue circle with border vs. Gaussian fade) and visibility of a centroid dot (visible vs. not visible) to produce the four visualization formats. Participants viewing the uniform blue circle are most likely to respond in accordance with the actual probability density of points sampled from bivariate normal distributions and additionally respond most rapidly. Participants reported a number of simple heuristics on which they based their judgments, and consistency with these heuristics was highly predictive of their judgments.  相似文献   

3.
ABSTRACT

This paper reports on a controlled experiment evaluating how different cartographic representations of risk affect participants’ performance on a complex spatial decision task: route planning. The specific experimental scenario used is oriented towards emergency route-planning during flood response. The experiment compared six common abstract and metaphorical graphical symbolizations of risk. The results indicate a pattern of less-preferred graphical symbolizations associated with slower responses and lower-risk route choices. One mechanism that might explain these observed relationships would be that more complex and effortful maps promote closer attention paid by participants and lower levels of risk taking. Such user considerations have important implications for the design of maps and mapping interfaces for emergency planning and response. The data also highlights the importance of the ‘right decision, wrong outcome problem’ inherent in decision-making under uncertainty: in individual instances, more risky decisions do not always lead to worse outcomes.  相似文献   

4.
张玉虎  向柳  孙庆  陈秋华 《地理科学》2016,36(9):1437-1444
根据季节径流量相关特性,利用标准径流指数(SRI),通过优选Copula函数和径流量分布函数,构建贝叶斯框架的Copula季节水文干旱预报模型,并对阿克苏河西大桥水文站进行实证分析。结果表明：① Gamma、Lognormal、Normal、Gumbel、Exponential 5种分布函数中,Gamma、Gumbel能较好拟合夏、秋季径流量;② Gumbel-Hougaard、Clayton、Frank 3种Copula函数中,Clayton能较好联结夏、秋季径流量分布函数;③ 构建模型预报表明,2001~2009年秋季发生干旱概率较低(24%~38%),以轻微、中度干旱为主,而2010年发生干旱的概率极高(95%),发生异常干旱的概率偏高(81%),与实际发生的干旱情况基本一致;④ 贝叶斯框架下构建的Copula模型能准确预报季节水文干旱发生,减少预报的不确定性,为特定区域干旱预报提供了一条新的途径。  相似文献   

5.
基于场所的GIS直接表达人类地理空间知识的管理和加工过程,而不确定性是人类智能的基本特点,因此GIS的智能化需要研究其中的不确定性问题。与传统的GIS相比,基于场所的GIS中的不确定性问题更为丰富,既包括随机性,也包括含糊性,而不确定性的主体既可以是地理要素、场所和空间关系,也包括命题和规则。该文介绍该领域相关的研究成果,基于不确定性主体、类型、表达手段及相关的活动4个视角,建立了基于场所的GIS中所涉及的不确定性框架,从而为相关的不确定性建模提供指导。  相似文献   

6.
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7.
In integration of road maps modeled as road vector data, the main task is matching pairs of objects that represent, in different maps, the same segment of a real-world road. In an ad hoc integration, the matching is done for a specific need and, thus, is performed in real time, where only a limited preprocessing is possible. Usually, ad hoc integration is performed as part of some interaction with a user and, hence, the matching algorithm is required to complete its task in time that is short enough for human users to provide feedback to the application, that is, in no more than a few seconds. Such interaction is typical of services on the World Wide Web and to applications in car-navigation systems or in handheld devices.

Several algorithms were proposed in the past for matching road vector data; however, these algorithms are not efficient enough for ad hoc integration. This article presents algorithms for ad hoc integration of maps in which roads are represented as polylines. The main novelty of these algorithms is in using only the locations of the endpoints of the polylines rather than trying to match whole lines. The efficiency of the algorithms is shown both analytically and experimentally. In particular, these algorithms do not require the existence of a spatial index, and they are more efficient than an alternative approach based on using a grid index. Extensive experiments using various maps of three different cities show that our approach to matching road networks is efficient and accurate (i.e., it provides high recall and precision).

General Terms:Algorithms, Experimentation  相似文献   

8.
This article applies error propagation in a Monte Carlo simulation for a spatial-based fuzzy logic multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) in order to investigate the output uncertainty created by the input data sets and model structure. Six scenarios for quantifying uncertainty are reviewed. Three scenarios are progressively more complex in defining observational data (attribute uncertainty); while three other scenarios include uncertainty in observational data (position of boundaries between map units), weighting of evidence (fuzzy membership assignment), and evaluating changes in the MCE model (fuzzy logic operators). A case study of petroleum exploration in northern South America is used. Despite the resources and time required, the best estimate of input uncertainty is that based on expert-defined values. Uncertainties for fuzzy membership assignment and boundary transition zones do not affect the results as much as the attribute assignment uncertainty. The MCE fuzzy logic operator uncertainty affects the results the most. Confidence levels of 95% and 60% are evaluated with threshold values of 0.7 and 0.5 and show that accepting more uncertainty in the results increases the total area available for decision-making. Threshold values and confidence levels should be predetermined, although a series of combinations may yield the best decision-making support.  相似文献   

9.
An influential body of literature suggests that economic diversity rather than specialization fuels the economic performance of regions and nations. The authors argue that this hypothesis has no universal applicability and that a more differentiated view is needed. In particular, historical specificity of the local environment and structural characteristics of regional economies should be taken into account. They focus on the effects of industrial specialization on economic performance and the vulnerability of Central European post-communist regions, namely Czech microregions with less than 200,000 inhabitants. They examine whether the economic performance and vulnerability of these regions is fuelled rather by industrial specialization or diversity when controlling for other potential determinants of regional economic performance. Their findings show that the dependence of Czech regions on manufacturing correlates with higher economic performance but also with higher regional vulnerability. In addition, industrial specialization within manufacturing was found to be instrumental for the economic performance of regions with high dependence on manufacturing. With a decreasing share of employment in manufacturing, industrial diversity rather than specialization becomes more valuable for the economic performance of Czech regions.  相似文献   

10.
A fundamental task for petroleum exploration decision-making is to evaluate the uncertainty of well outcomes. The recent development of geostatistical simulation techniques provides an effective means to the generation of a full uncertainty model for any random variable. Sequential indicator simulation has been used as a tool to generate alternate, equal-probable stochastic models, from which various representations of uncertainties can be created. These results can be used as input for the quantification of various risks associated with a wildcat drilling program or the estimation of petroleum resources. A simple case study is given to demonstrate the use of sequential indicator simulation. The data involves a set of wildcat wells in a gas play. The multiple simulated stochastic models are then post-processed to characterize various uncertainties associated with drilling outcomes.  相似文献   

11.
Agronomic soil management and decision-making frequently requires the joint classification of soil variables. Fuzzy set theory is often used to accomplish this task. This paper addresses the issues of objectively defining fuzzy membership functions (FMF) and reducing classification uncertainty with hedge operators. As an example, soil in North-east Thailand was classified according to its inherent potential to support the recovery of a rice crop after a drought spell. The utility of auxiliary information not directly included in the classification was explored. A tree cover density index was employed for an objective definition of the FMF to classify soil organic matter content and plant-available potassium. Mapping units were allocated to classes having low, medium or high availability of these plant nutrients. It was shown that crisp, Boolean style classifications severely misclassify land in all but one class. Adjusted FMF decreased the uncertainty contained in thematic class maps. Single FMF values for soil organic matter and plant-available K were then jointly modelled and the soil classified as having low, medium and high potential for rice plants to recover from drought impacts. The very and more or less hedge operators were applied to increase or decrease the joint FMF values using farmer' knowledge about soil fertility. Overall classification uncertainty using FMF was decreased by 14% if the standard FMF was adjusted and the generated membership values were hedged. It was shown that adjusting FMF influenced the uncertainty components vagueness and ambiguity differently; the former increased slightly but the latter was drastically reduced.  相似文献   

12.
To improve the formal integration of verbally given spatial information in a geographical information system, a methodology for converting such information to a geographical representation was developed. This was applied to examples of a spatial-related analysis of natural language text messages in the domain of disaster management. This article presents an approach for such a conversion by using a suitable knowledge representation as well as formal modelling structures. The structures are provided by an ontology-supported knowledge base. With respect to spatial uncertainty, a formal representation based on possibility theory was defined. Moreover, a cluster algorithm was developed for handling information of different sources and building a spatial context.  相似文献   

13.
Knowledge representation structure and reasoning processes are very important issues in the knowledge-based approach of integrating multiple spatial data sets for resource exploration. An object-oriented knowledge representation structure and corresponding reasoning processes are formulated and tested in this research on the knowledge-based approach of integrating spatial exploration data. The map-based prototype expert system developed in this study has self-contained knowledge representation structure and inference mechanisms. It is important to distinguish between lack of information and information providing negative evidence for a map-based system because the spatial distribution of data sets are uneven in most cases. Error and uncertainty estimation is also an important component of any production expert system. The uncertainty propagation mechanisms developed here work well for this type of integrated exploration problem. Evidential bellef function theory provides a natural theoretical basis for representing and integrating spatially uneven geophysical and geological information. The prototype system is tested using real mineral exploration data sets from the Snow Lake area, northern Manitoba, Canada. The test results outline the favorable exploration areas successfully and show the effectiveness of the knowledge representation structure and inference mechanisms for the knowledge-based approach.  相似文献   

14.
李志刚  薛德升  杜枫  朱颖 《地理研究》2009,28(4):920-932
全球化下的中国城市社会空间面临新的重塑,以诸多大城市新近出现的跨国移民社会空间的发展最为突出。本文以广州小北黑人区为研究对象,采用三角检验法,综合利用问卷调查、深度访谈等研究手段,探讨全球化下中国城市所出现的新社会空间的地方响应。总体上,一个负面的黑人群体形象已经被建构起来。就居民的年龄、性别、教育水平、居住时间和宗教信仰等方面而言,各类本地居民在对黑人聚居的看法上并无太大差别;但不同职业类型的居民看法差别很大。排斥心理的产生多源于外在信息的影响,亦即本地媒体排斥、矮化性的负面响应。  相似文献   

15.
Trajectory data analysis and mining require distance and similarity measures, and the quality of their results is directly related to those measures. Several similarity measures originally proposed for time-series were adapted to work with trajectory data, but these approaches were developed for well-behaved data that usually do not have the uncertainty and heterogeneity introduced by the sampling process to obtain trajectories. More recently, similarity measures were proposed specifically for trajectory data, but they rely on simplistic movement uncertainty representations, such as linear interpolation. In this article, we propose a new distance function, and a new similarity measure that uses an elliptical representation of trajectories, being more robust to the movement uncertainty caused by the sampling rate and the heterogeneity of this kind of data. Experiments using real data show that our proposal is more accurate and robust than related work.  相似文献   

16.
Land cover class composition of remotely sensed image pixels can be estimated using soft classification techniques increasingly available in many GIS packages. However, their output provides no indication of how such classes are distributed spatially within the instantaneous field of view represented by the pixel. Techniques that attempt to provide an improved spatial representation of land cover have been developed, but not tested on the difficult task of mapping from real satellite imagery. The authors investigated the use of a Hopfield neural network technique to map the spatial distributions of classes reliably using information of pixel composition determined from soft classification previously. The approach involved designing the energy function to produce a ‘best guess’ prediction of the spatial distribution of class components in each pixel. In previous studies, the authors described the application of the technique to target identification, pattern prediction and land cover mapping at the sub-pixel scale, but only for simulated imagery. We now show how the approach can be applied to Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) agriculture imagery to derive accurate estimates of land cover and reduce the uncertainty inherent in such imagery. The technique was applied to Landsat TM imagery of small-scale agriculture in Greece and largescale agriculture near Leicester, UK. The resultant maps provided an accurate and improved representation of the land covers studied, with RMS errors for the Landsat imagery of the order of 0.1 in the new fine resolution map recorded. The results showed that the neural network represents a simple efficient tool for mapping land cover from operational satellite sensor imagery and can deliver requisite results and improvements over traditional techniques for the GIS analysis of practical remotely sensed imagery at the sub pixel scale.  相似文献   

17.
陈海  杨维鸽  梁小英  王涛 《地理研究》2010,29(8):1519-1527
通过土地利用情景变化模型反映多尺度的土地利用现象,是学者们研究的焦点问题。本文基于MAS理论,构建从地块到村庄的多尺度土地利用变化模型,揭示微观层面不同尺度上土地利用变化的机制。应用该模型,以陕西省米脂县孟岔村为例进行研究,定量分析该村农户个体、农户群体和农户整体等不同尺度上的土地利用决策,并通过与2008年实际土地利用变化数据对比和分析,对构建的多尺度土地利用变化模型进行检验。通过分析,认为:(1)基于MAS的多尺度农户土地利用变化模型可较好地反映微观土地利用决策和空间的多尺度变化;(2)构建用 连续数值表示的农户土地利用决策与实际状况比较符合;(3) 本文为不同农户群体间的转化方法、农户间相互作用,以及市场与政策因素的作用等方面的研究打下坚实的基础。  相似文献   

18.
Human residency is the spatial effect source on ecosystem and thus it should be studied and assessed. Supporting residency effect research, this study developed and applied procedures and a model to combine census and parcel data for the assessment. The case study is in Pocatello, Idaho, where revealing land service associated with flood control and locating/evaluating resident effect are needed. Methods include (1) data mining, (2) land service valuation, (3) data screening, (4) integration of census and parcel data, (5) data screening, and (5) analysis and modeling with R programing language and ArcMap. Results are, for land service assessment, land value per area unit in residence areas (LAND) along the concrete channel (for flood control) was less than that along the Portneuf River. Spatial responses under LAND to a source effect (either the concrete channel or the river) are the same. The applied methods helped locate and assess a variety of residency effects spatio-temporally. Results informed the human preferences under LAND and the effect distribution to support decision-making. Technically, using the parcels as a baseline provided comprehensive results with a fine resolution for the effect study, particularly as combined with the census data. This study suggests using a data screening and validation procedure besides the mining approach to minimize outcome uncertainty.  相似文献   

19.
土地变化模型方法综述   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  
土地系统变化长期以来不仅是地理学研究热点,也是资源环境经济学、生态学、城市规划等多学科领域关注的主题。构建模型模拟土地变化能够促进理解人地相互作用机制,模拟结果可为土地资源优化与资源环境政策制定提供依据。不同研究者基于不同学科理论、应用多种方法构建土地变化模型,模型从早期关注自然覆被类型变化发展到对人类决策行为的刻画,从统计方法发展到更突出空间分布的元胞自动机方法,以及更聚焦土地变化过程的经济学方法和多主体方法。未来土地变化模型发展方向为：在多尺度进行多方法耦合,对土地变化过程进行更为明晰地刻画,将土地变化模型与其他地球系统模型耦合等方面,进一步能够促进解释复杂人地系统,并推进模型在决策支持层面的应用。  相似文献   

20.
A spatial modeling technique is proposed to represent boundary uncertainty or gradation on area-class maps using a simple polygon tessellation with designated zones of indeterminacy or transition zones. The transition zone can be conceptualized as a dual of the epsilon band, but is more flexible and allows for a wide range of polygonal configurations, including polygons with sinuous boundaries, spurs, three-way transition zones, and null polygons. The model is specified using the medial axis to capture the general shape characteristics of a transition zone. Graph theoretic representation of an extended version of the medial axis captures key junctions in both shape and classification and is used to identify well-formed transition zones that can be logically and unambiguously handled by the model. A multivariate classification surface is specified by first defining degrees or probabilities of membership at every point on the medial axis and transition zone boundary. Degrees or probabilities of membership at all other points are defined by linear interpolation. The technique is illustrated with an example of a complex transition zone, and a simple isoline representation that can be derived from the model is presented. The proposed modeling technique promises to facilitate expert characterization of soil formations, ecological systems, and other types of areal units where gradation and/or boundary uncertainty are prevalent.  相似文献   

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