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1.
岱海湖相沉积物很好记录了近万年来区域气候变化的相关信息.利用马尔科夫链模型对岱海孢粉组合反映的气温和降水数据进行的周期性分析表明:该地区气候变化存在大约60 a、80 a、180 a、400 a、900 a等周期;周期变化与利用深水区沉积物、孢粉等研究结论以及相关地区的气候变化周期相一致,证明了马尔科夫链模型是研究环境变化周期性可利用的方法之一;在短时间尺度上,岱海地区气候变化与太阳活动和火山地震活动的周期存在相关性,太阳活动是该地区气候变化的主要驱动力之一,火山地震等因素对气候变化有一定的影响. 相似文献
2.
树轮资料(1511～1954)太阳活动的多尺度分析——EMD方法的应用 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
用EMD对Stu iver等提供的树轮14C资料进行分析,结果为:①得到太阳活动的准3、6、11、22、44、110、200、300 a的周期;从趋势项中可以得到准600 a甚至更长的周期波动;②可以判断太阳活动经典的极小期,与公认的极小期有一定的滞后性。从树轮14C含量的变化趋势中可以判断从1954~2100年的太阳活动变化逐渐变强,从2100~2350年太阳活动逐渐开始变弱;③从每个尺度周期波动的时变特征中可以得到,即使在太阳活动的极小期,太阳活动依然存在频率和强度不同的周期波动。 相似文献
3.
突发危机事件对游客感知可进入性的影响特征——以汶川“5.12”大地震前后九寨沟景区游客为例 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
基于汶川“5.12”大地震前后(2008和2011年)分别进行的2次九寨沟景区实地问卷调研,将这2年的游客群作为2个样本组,运用独立样本t检验,结合感知可进入性测量模型,从组内、组间2个角度研究突发危机事件对游客感知可进入性的影响.结果表明:①2008年“5.12”大地震前的感知可进入性要好于2011年地震后;②游客出游后对于感知可进入性的评分都出现下降,说明当地实际感知可进入性较好,与游客出游前的感知可进入性存在较大偏差;③突发危机事件前,游客对于“人身安全”最为担心;突发危机事件后,游客对于“交通通畅”最为担心;④“5.12”大地震造成游客的感知可进入性明显下降,对于当地旅游业游客人数和门票收入造成了消极影响. 相似文献
4.
基于行星会合指数运动学方程,推演出太阳质心到太阳系质心距离变化的计算公式,并利用该公式重建太阳质心相对于太阳系质心的距离变化时间序列,作为太阳轨道运动的替代性指标,使用聚合经验模态分解(Ensemble empirical mode decomposition,EEMD)方法分析0~25.0 ka BP太阳质心到太阳系质心的距离与Δ^14C时间序列。结果显示:两者均存在蕴含~2300 a周期(Hall?statt cycle)的IMF分量;互相关分析证实两者蕴含的Hallstatt周期分量间具有相关性,0~13.9 ka BP与13.9~25.0 ka BP年代相关系数分别可达0.52、0.44,并且太阳质心到太阳系质心距离的变化超前于太阳活动指标Δ14C的变化。表明太阳质心远离太阳系质心时,大气14C含量增加,对应于太阳活动较弱的时期;太阳质心靠近太阳系质心时,大气14C含量减小,对应于太阳活动较强的时期。这一认识对于进一步探究太阳活动Hallstatt周期的成因机制提供了新的依据和思路。 相似文献
5.
气候变化及人类活动对中国土壤有机碳储量的影响 总被引：64，自引：1，他引：63
对中国1998年第二次土壤普查中的2000多个土壤剖面中碳储量与年平均温度 (T)、年降水量 (P) 的相关性研究表明：它们之间的相关性在不同的温度带下具有很大的差异,在T ≤10oC的地区,土壤有机碳储量与温度的负相关性最强;在10oC< T ≤ 20oC的地区,受与降水正相关的影响,土壤有机碳储量与年平均温度表现出一种正相关性;而在T > 20oC的地区,土壤有机碳储量与温度和降水的相关性都很差。由于温度和降水在中国存在很强的正相关性,因此在相关分析中宜采用偏相关分析方法。受人类耕种的影响,耕地土壤有机碳储量与温度、降水相关性远低于非耕地土壤。对具有相同土壤属性和气候条件的同一地区的耕地土壤与非耕地土壤样本进行的配对检验表明,耕地土壤与非耕地土壤有机碳储量之间存在显著差异,土地利用的改变在总体上导致了土壤碳的释放。 相似文献
6.
基于GIS的山地交通地理信息分析方法与技术 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
在分析讨论传统山地交通地理信息分析方法弊端的基础上,对基于GIS及GIS-T的山地交通网的建设、管理使用等所需的相关地理信息的分析意义、技术方法等问题进行了探讨。以成都市域的相关数据和MapInfo平台为例,研讨了基于GIS的山地交通地理信息分析基本步骤及山地交通网自身及其主要环境要素的分析内容和方法。研究得到了基于GIS的山地交通地理信息分析方法在可视、实效等方面明显优于传统方法;相关研究的难点及今后进一步深入研究的方向及内容等结论。 相似文献
7.
基于模糊集分析的土壤质量指标高光谱反演 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
通过对横山县84个土样350~2 500 nm波段的光谱曲线分析,进行土壤质量12项指标的光谱反演。为获得有效光谱反演指标,利用单相关分析方法计算土壤质量指标与光谱反射率的相关系数并绘制相关系数曲线,根据极大相关性选择最佳波段作为光谱反演指标;剔除异常样本后,利用模糊识别理论建立土壤质量指标反演模型,通过优化得到模型的最佳参数。土壤质量12项指标光谱反演模型的平均检验误差均小于15%,说明模型的精度较高。 相似文献
8.
水文时间序列分析方法研究进展 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
水文时间序列不仅组成复杂,而且特性也复杂多变。目前认为水文时间序列主要表现出随机性、模糊性、非线性、非平稳性和多时间尺度变化等复杂特性。本文首先简要介绍了用于揭示水文过程复杂变化特性的时间序列分析方法的相关进展,包括序列相关性分析方法、水文频率分析方法、模糊分析方法、混沌理论分析方法、信息熵分析方法和小波分析方法等6种。然后,对各种分析方法存在的主要问题和有待解决的问题进行讨论,指出了各种方法应用于水文时间序列分析时存在的主要缺陷和不足。最后指出,不断改进和完善时间序列分析方法,探讨各种方法的联合和耦合,加强物理成因分析和数理统计分析相结合,是提高水文时间序列分析结果精度和可靠性的有效手段,也是研究和解决环境变化影响下水文水资源问题的有效途径。 相似文献
9.
汶川地震区暴雨滑坡泥石流活动趋势预测 总被引：16，自引：1，他引：15
汶川大地震发生后,暴雨又激发了新的滑坡和泥石流发生.为探讨汶川地震区暴雨滑坡泥石流活动趋势,对比分析了日本关东大地震和台湾集集大地震后诱发滑坡和泥石流活动趋势,在此基础上,对汶川地震区未来滑坡、泥石流活动趋势作了预测分析.同时,还讨论了估算不同强度降雨条件下滑坡面积和泥石流冲出量的方法.初步研究表明,汶川强震区至少在近10 a内,滑坡和泥石流活动趋势是强烈的,之后地质条件将逐渐趋于稳定.本研究选择了面积为5.9 km2的北川县城西侧斜坡为研究区,计算结果是如果一旦遭遇100 a一遇降雨,新增滑坡面积可达166.97 ×104 m2,约占整个研究区流域面积的28.3%.本研究还预测了魏家沟、苏家沟流域的不同频率降雨条件下的泥石流土砂产量,在100 a一遇降雨条件下,泥石流土砂产量分别达71.0×104 m3和49.2×104 m3.研究成果为进一步认识汶川地震区后续降雨作用诱发的滑坡泥石流活动趋势提供参考. 相似文献
10.
黑色旅游是当前国内外研究的热点之一,黑色旅游开发是自然灾害发生地灾后恢复的一种重要方式。以往研究较多关注战争与事件型黑色旅游地,对自然灾害遗址型旅游地的研究较少。本文以汶川地震北川遗址公园为案例,构建了参观者动机测量量表;通过因子分析得到了教育与纪念动机、社交与亲情动机、感受与见证动机、认同与求新动机和好奇心动机五大类参观者动机类型。为分析和比较不同来源地参观者动机的特征,探究事件关注度和认知欲望对不同类型动机的影响程度差异,分别以全体参观者和四川参观者为样本构建了结构方程模型。结果显示:全体参观者模型中,事件关注度对教育与纪念、社交与亲情等动机影响较大,而对好奇心动机影响较小;认知欲望对教育与纪念、感受与见证以及好奇心等动机影响较大,而对认同和求新动机影响较小。在四川参观者模型中,参观者对汶川事件的关注度不能激发感受与见证动机,认知欲望对社交与亲情动机的影响也不显著,而对于汶川地震地区的认同感和集体认同感较强。 相似文献
11.
Most seismic hazard estimations are based on the assumption of a Poisson process for earthquake occurrence, even though both observations and models indicate a departure of real seismic sequences from this simplistic assumption. Instrumental earthquake catalogues show earthquake clustering on regional scales while the elastic rebound theory predicts a periodic recurrence of characteristic earthquakes on longer timescales for individual events. Recent implementations of time-dependent hazard calculations in California and Japan are based on quasi-periodic recurrences of fault ruptures according to renewal models such as the Brownian Passage Time model. However, these renewal models neglect earthquake interactions and the dependence on the stressing history which might destroy any regularity of earthquake recurrences in reality. To explore this, we investigate the (coupled) stress release model, a stochastic version of the elastic rebound hypothesis. In particular, we are interested in the time-variability of the occurrence of large earthquakes and its sensitivity to the occurrence of Gutenberg–Richter type earthquake activity and fault interactions. Our results show that in general large earthquakes occur quasi-periodically in the model: the occurrence probability of large earthquakes is strongly decreased shortly after a strong event and becomes constant on longer timescales. Although possible stress-interaction between adjacent fault zones does not affect the recurrence time distributions in each zone significantly, it leads to a temporal clustering of events on larger regional scales. The non-random characteristics, especially the quasi-periodic behaviour of large earthquakes, are even more pronounced if stress changes due to small earthquakes are less important. The recurrence-time distribution for the largest events is characterized by a coefficient of variation from 0.6 to 0.84 depending on the relative importance of small earthquakes. 相似文献
12.
Summary. In this paper computer modelling is used to test simple approximations for simulating strong ground motions for moderate and large earthquakes in the Mexicali–Imperial Valley region. Initially, we represent an earthquake rupture process as a series of many independent small earthquakes distributed in a somewhat random manner in both space and time along the rupture surface. By summing real seismograms for small earthquakes (used as empirical Green's functions), strong ground motions at specific sites near a fault are calculated. Alternatively, theoretical Green's functions that include frequencies up to 20 Hz are used in essentially similar simulations. The model uses random numbers to emulate some of the non-deterministic irregularities associated with real earthquakes, due either to complexities in the rupture process itself and/or strong variations in the material properties of the medium. Simulations of the 1980 June 9 Victoria, Baja California earthquake ( M L = 6.1) approximately agree with the duration of shaking, the maximum ground acceleration, and the frequency content of strong ground motion records obtained at distances of up to 35 km for this moderate earthquake. In the initial stages of modelling we do not introduce any scaling of spectral shape with magnitude, in order to see at what stage the data require it. Surprisingly, such scaling is not critical in going from M = 4–5 events to the M = 6.1 Victoria earthquake. However, it is clearly required by the El Centro accelerogram for the Imperial Valley 1940 earthquake, which had a much higher moment ( Ms ∼ 7). We derive the spectral modification function for this event. The resulting model for this magnitude ∼ 7 earthquake is then used to predict the ground motions at short distances from the fault. Predicted peak horizontal accelerations for the M ∼ 7 event are about 25–50 per cent higher than those observed for the M = 6.1 Victoria event. 相似文献
13.
对研究区（23.9°N～25.1°N,97.8°E～99.0°E）内地壳和上地幔S波速度结构与强震的关系和强震活动的深部背景进行了探讨。活动断裂的运动是孕育和发生强震的重要诱因,而有利于高应变积聚的深部地质构造则是产生强震的关键条件。研究区内,以瑞丽—龙陵断裂为界,西北侧地壳和上地幔存在大范围低速区,不利于高应变的积聚,不容易孕育和发生强震;东南侧上地幔无明显低速层,地壳内有较小范围低速层,介质偏于刚性,易于积累高应变,孕育和发生强震的可能性较大。 相似文献
14.
The purpose of this study is to develop a technique to discriminate artificial explosions from local small earthquakes ( M ≤ 4.0) in the time–frequency domain. In order to obtain spectral features of artificial explosions and earthquakes, 3-D spectrograms (frequency, time and amplitude) have been used. They represent a useful tool for studying the frequency content of entire seismic waveforms observed at local and regional distances (Kim, Simpson & Richards 1994). P and S(L g ) waves from quarry blasts show that the frequency content associated with the dominant amplitude appears above 10 Hz and Rg phases are observed at close distances. P and S(L g ) waves from the Tongosan earthquake have strong amplitudes below 10 Hz. For the Munkyong earthquake, however, a broader frequency content up to 20 Hz is found.
For discrimination between small earthquakes and explosions, Pg/L g spectral ratios are used below 10 Hz, and through spectrogram analysis we can see different frequency contents of explosions and earthquakes. Unfortunately, because explosion data recorded at KSRS array are digitized at 20 sps, we cannot avoid analysing below 10 Hz because of the Nyquist frequency. In order to select time windows, the group velocity was computed using multiple-filter analysis (MFA), and free-surface effects have been removed from all three-component data in order to improve data quality. Using FFT, a log-average spectral amplitude is calculated over seven frequency bands: 0.5 to 3, 2 to 4, 3 to 5, 4 to 6, 5 to 7, 6 to 8 and 8 to 10 Hz. The best separation between explosions and earthquakes is observed from 6 to 8 Hz. In this frequency band we can separate explosions with log ( Pg/L g ) above −0.5, except EXP1 recorded at SIHY1-1, and earthquakes below −0.5, except the Munkyong earthquake record at station KMH. 相似文献
For discrimination between small earthquakes and explosions, Pg/L g spectral ratios are used below 10 Hz, and through spectrogram analysis we can see different frequency contents of explosions and earthquakes. Unfortunately, because explosion data recorded at KSRS array are digitized at 20 sps, we cannot avoid analysing below 10 Hz because of the Nyquist frequency. In order to select time windows, the group velocity was computed using multiple-filter analysis (MFA), and free-surface effects have been removed from all three-component data in order to improve data quality. Using FFT, a log-average spectral amplitude is calculated over seven frequency bands: 0.5 to 3, 2 to 4, 3 to 5, 4 to 6, 5 to 7, 6 to 8 and 8 to 10 Hz. The best separation between explosions and earthquakes is observed from 6 to 8 Hz. In this frequency band we can separate explosions with log ( Pg/L g ) above −0.5, except EXP1 recorded at SIHY1-1, and earthquakes below −0.5, except the Munkyong earthquake record at station KMH. 相似文献
15.
基于卫星热红外辐射信息的新疆强震震例分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用NOAA-14极轨气象卫星红外波段的探测数据,对遥感数据进行多种处理,采用影像目视解释和提取地表辐射亮温值的方法,对新疆的三次强震进行分析,结果发现在地震前都出现了热红外异常,这为地震监测提供了一个重要信息。 相似文献
16.
Stress transfer relations among the earthquakes that occurred in Kerman province, southern Iran since 1981 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Suleyman S. Nalbant Sandy Steacy John McCloskey 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,167(1):309-318
We explore the possible stress triggering relationship of the M ≥ 6.4 earthquakes that occurred in Kerman Province, southern Iran since 1981. We calculated stress changes due to both coseismic sudden movement in the upper crust and the time-dependent viscous relaxation of the lower crust and/or upper mantle following the event. Four events of M ≥ 6.4 occurred between 1981 and 2005, on and close to the Gowk fault, show a clear Coulomb stress load to failure relationship. The 2003 M = 6.5 Bam earthquake, however, which occurred approximately 95 km SW of the closest Gowk event, shows a very weak stress relation to preceding earthquakes. The coseismic static stress change at the hypocentre of the Bam earthquake is quite small (∼0.006 bars). The time-dependent post-seismic stress change could be 26 times larger or 7 times lower than that of coseismic static stress alone depending on the choice of viscoelastic crustal model and the effective coefficient of friction. Given the uncertainties in the viscoelastic earth models and the effective coefficient of friction, we cannot confidently conclude that the 2003 Bam event was brought closer to failure through coseismic or post-seismic stress loading. Interestingly, the southern Gowk segment with a similar strike to that of the Bam fault, experienced a stress load of up to 8.3 bars between 1981 and 2003, and is yet to have a damaging earthquake. 相似文献
17.
Temporal changes in shear-wave splitting at an isolated swarm of small earthquakes in 1992 near Dongfang, Hainan Island, southern China 总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14
Yuan Gao Peide Wang Sihua Zheng Ming Wang Yuntai Chen & Huilan Zhou 《Geophysical Journal International》1998,135(1):102-112
An isolated swarm of small earthquakes occurred in 1992, near Dongfang on Hainan Island, southern China. The Institute of Geophysics, State Seismological Bureau of China, monitored the swarm with five DCS-302 digital accelerometers for three months from 1992 June 1. 18 earthquakes, with magnitudes M L ranging from 1.8 to 3.6, were well located by five stations, and shear-wave splitting varying azimuthally was analysed on 27 seismic records from these events. The mean polarization azimuth of the faster shear wave was WNW. Time delays between the split shear waves at two stations varied with time and space. The time delays at one station fell abruptly after earthquakes of magnitudes 3.1 and 3.6, but did not change significantly at the second station. This behaviour is consistent with the delay-time changes being caused by changes in the aspect ratio of vertical liquid-filled (EDA) cracks. Thus, the variation in shear-wave-splitting time delay could be due to changes in crustal stress related to nearby small-magnitude earthquake activity. The connection between earthquake activity and crustal stress variation measured by shear-wave splitting leaves the door open for possible observations of crustal stress transients related to the onset of an earthquake; however, our data cannot be considered as definite evidence for such precursors. 相似文献
18.
Smaller source earthquakes and improved measuring techniques allow the largest earthquakes in Iceland to be stress forecast (with hindsight) 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Jing Wu Stuart Crampin Yuan Gao Ping Hao Theodora Volti Yun-Tai Chen 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,166(3):1293-1298
A group of three earthquakes in 2000 June in SW Iceland included the two largest earthquakes in Iceland in the past 30 yr. Previously, temporal changes in shear-wave splitting had not been recognized before these earthquakes as there were too few small earthquakes to provide adequate shear-wave data, and they were not stress forecast, even with hindsight. These large earthquakes were subject to a special investigation by the European Community funded PREPARED Project during which the seismic catalogue was extended to include smaller magnitude earthquakes. This more detailed data set, together with a semi-automatic programme for measuring the parameters of shear-wave splitting greatly increased the number of time-delay measurements.
The new measurements displayed the typical temporal variations before larger earthquakes as seen elsewhere: a long-term increase in time delays, interpreted as stress accumulation before the earthquake; and a decrease, interpreted as crack coalescence, immediately prior to the earthquake. The logarithms of the durations of both the implied accumulation of stress and the crack coalescence have the same self-similar relationships to earthquake magnitude as found elsewhere in Iceland. This means that, in principle, the time and magnitude of the larger earthquakes could have been stress forecast in real time had the smaller source earthquakes of the extended catalogue and the improved measuring procedures been available at the time. 相似文献
The new measurements displayed the typical temporal variations before larger earthquakes as seen elsewhere: a long-term increase in time delays, interpreted as stress accumulation before the earthquake; and a decrease, interpreted as crack coalescence, immediately prior to the earthquake. The logarithms of the durations of both the implied accumulation of stress and the crack coalescence have the same self-similar relationships to earthquake magnitude as found elsewhere in Iceland. This means that, in principle, the time and magnitude of the larger earthquakes could have been stress forecast in real time had the smaller source earthquakes of the extended catalogue and the improved measuring procedures been available at the time. 相似文献
19.
云南地震地质灾害与资源环境效应问题的初步研究 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
在对历史震害资料浅析的基础上，利用最近40年有现场调查的地震记录，分析了云南省各类地震地质灾害与资源环境破坏影响的一些特征，并结合云南地震时空活动特性，对云南有仪测地震资料近百年间的地震地质灾害与资源环境效应问题进行了反演，表明：（1）云南地区地震地质灾害与资源环境破坏影响具有群体分区特征。（2）云南地区存在时间进程上连续的中强地震活跃背景：地震对资源环境的作用影响具有强度为2级的高背景值。（3）云南资源环境地震破坏影响具有多侧面、长时效和渐微影响的特征。地震对资源环境的破坏，必将恶化人类生存条件，阻碍社会经济的长期与可持续发展。这是资源环境安全防震减灾所面临的新课题。 相似文献