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1.
Singh RN Chaturvedi RP 《Population geography : a journal of the Association of Population Geographers of India》1984,6(1-2):53-65
This paper analyzes the growth of population and its various characteristics in the Bundelkhand region of India. Bundelkhand region--a distinct histocultural and geographic unit--is a transitional zone between the 2 major physiographic divisions of India: the Gangetic plain and Peninsular India. The region is a less developed part of India where people are living in low social status with poor economic conditions; agriculture is the mainstay of the people, but the region suffers from the inadequacy and inefficiencies of irrigation facilities. The history of population growth of the region during the last 80 years has followed a multivariate course; besides the interplay of birth and death, in-migration contributes considerably to the population growth. The 1st phase (1901-1921) is that of progressive decline causing a very slow population growth--population decrease was mainly due to the influenza epidemic of 1918-19. The 2nd phase (1921-1951) was a period of moderate population growth due to the national political movements and disturbances together with some natural disasters. The 3rd phase (1951-1981) is marked by a rapid population growth mainly due to the decline in the death rate. Over the last 80 years, the total population of the Bundelkhand region increased from 3.45 million to 8.03 million--a net increase of 132.58%. However, this change is not high when compared to the national average of 176.11%. The total population of the region in 1981 (8,037,206 persons) is expected to reach 8,874,000 persons in 1991, and 9,797,000 persons in 2001. This will undoubtedly put enormous pressure on the resources of the region slowing down the pace of economic progress. 相似文献
2.
《The Journal of geography》2012,111(1):36-42
Abstract Latin America is the world's fastest growing region in population, and the consequent problems confronting Latin America are already evident in other underdeveloped regions and will become even more aggravated as demographic growth rates rise. Mortality can decline still further in some countries of Latin America and those countries will be especially hard-pressed in the near future. Implementation of fertility control will apparently be a slow process, so that the prospects are for continued very rapid growth for at least one or two decades. Population pressure on food supplies, resources, employment opportunities, and social services will continue to be formidable and further aggravate the fragile socio-economic structure and promote additional political instability. Much greater attention to population policy and program implementation is necessary to cope with population growth and the attendant problems in order to promote stability and improve living conditions in the region. 相似文献
3.
中国省际人口空间格局演化的分析方法与实证 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
中国正在经历着史无前例的城镇化过程,2011年全国城镇人口已达6.91亿人,城镇化率攀升至51.27%。按2030年城镇化水平到70%计算,还将有接近3亿人口从农村流动至城市。与此同时,由于总生育率受社会经济发展水平、生态环境以及社会思潮的共同作用,人口自然增长率正在减少,“单独二胎”政策即是国家对人口发展战略的重大战略调整。由此可见,对正处在城镇化、工业化和全球化加速推进的中国而言,人口自然增长与空间迁移正在且必将持续重塑人口空间格局,因而科学地认识中国人口自然增长和空间迁移的区域差异、准确地把握人口空间格局及其演化趋势,对于科学编制城镇化发展、土地利用、生态环境保护等各类空间规划和制订流动人口、区域协作等各项空间管理政策具有重要意义。本文构建了一种全新的自上而下的人口预测方法,考虑人口自然增长和空间迁移两种影响因素,着重对一级单元 (全国) 和次级单元 (省级) 在2010-2050年间的人口总量进行预测,并进一步研判我国人口空间格局的发展情景和演化特征：从各省人口密度变化来看,中国人口空间分布密度继续保持了东部高、中部次之、东北再次、西部最低的总体格局。东部省份中上海、北京、天津及江苏的人口密度始终保持在一至四位,最末三位依次是新疆、青海和西藏。根据本文提出的省际人口变化强度及其主导类型的测算指标和量化结果,可将中国划分为人口快速变化区 (净迁入主导型、净迁出主导型、自然增长主导型)、人口低速变化区 (净迁入型、净迁出型) 以及人口平稳区。净迁入主导型人口快速变化区将吸纳99%的未来新增流动人口,其中上海、北京、浙江至2030年时人口密度达到顶峰,而广东的人口密度持续增加到2035年;净迁出主导型人口快速变化区,包括河南、安徽、重庆、湖北,75%的新增流动人口将由此类型区域迁出;辽宁和山东同属于自然增长主导型人口快速变化区,其新增流动人口比重极小,由人口自然增长变化主导区域的人口快速变化态势。在低速变化区中,除福建和海南作为少有的流动人口净迁入型省份,其余省份人口密度不断降低则缘于大量的劳动力输出和逐渐走低的生育率;大部西北和西南省份属于人口平稳区,其人口密度呈现出稳中有减的态势,人口密度平均值大多在100人/km2以下。 相似文献
4.
This paper uses data for the period 1950–2050 compiled by the United Nations Population Division together with methods including spatial autocorrelation analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis and the standard deviational ellipse, to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of population and urbanization in the 75 countries located along the routes of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road, to identify future population growth and urbanization hotspots. The results reveal the following: First, in 2015, the majority of Belt and Road countries in Europe, South Asia and Southeast Asia had high population densities, whereas most countries in Central Asia, North Africa and West Asia, as well as Russia and Mongolia, had low population densities; the majority of countries in South Asia, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, West Asia and North Africa had rapid population growth, whereas many countries in Europe had negative population growth; and five Belt and Road countries are in the initial stage of urbanization, 44 countries are in the acceleration stage of urbanization, and 26 are in the terminal stage of urbanization. Second, in the century from 1950 to 2050, the mean center of the study area’s population is consistently located in the border region between India and China. Prior to 2000, the trajectory of the mean center was from northwest to southeast, but from 2000 it is on a southward trajectory, as the population of the study area becomes more concentrated. Future population growth hotspots are predicted to be in South Asia, West Asia and Southeast Asia, and hotspot countries for the period 2015–2030 include India, China, Pakistan and Indonesia, though China will move into negative population growth after 2030. Third, the overall urban population of Belt and Road countries increased from 22% in 1950 to 49% in 2015, and it is expected to gradually catch up with the world average, reaching 64% in 2050. The different levels of urbanization in different countries display significant spatial dependency, and in the hundred-year period under consideration, this dependency increases before eventually weakening. Fourth, between 2015 and 2030, urban population hotspots will include Thailand, China, Laos and Albania, while Kuwait, Cyprus, Qatar and Estonia will be urban “coldspots.” Fifth, there were 293 cities with populations over 1 million located along the Belt and Road in 2015, but that number is expected to increase to 377 by 2030. Of those, 43 will be in China, with many of the others located in India, Indonesia and the eastern Mediterranean. 相似文献
5.
Chandna RC 《Population geography : a journal of the Association of Population Geographers of India》1991,13(1-2):1-6
The field of population geography was first introduced during the 1960s in India and advanced under the direction of Gosal at the Punjab University. Teaching and research in population geography were introduced by Chandigarh at Punjab University, which today is the main center of research activity. Population geography in India has followed the main tenets of geography in general and is based on spatial perspectives. Deficits are apparent in the paucity of research on socioeconomic implications of spatial distributions, but there is infrastructural feedback to support theory development. Theoretical advances moving from theory to fact or from empirical fact to theory are limited. Comprehensive training in methodology and quantitative techniques is needed for further development of population theory: multivariate analysis, factor analysis, principal component analysis, model building, hypothesis testing, and theory formulation. Methodological sophistication will also help in understanding and interpreting the diverse and complex Indian demographic situation. The analysis of population geography in the Indian spatial, cultural, political, and historical context may be applied to other less developed countries of similar sociocultural background. The Indian Census has contributed over the 100 years of its existence reliable and efficiently produced data on a wide variety of measures at assorted scales down to the village level. Field work among geographers has not achieved a level of development commensurate with population censuses. Recent doctoral research has focused on qualitative studies of local situations. Research topics range from the distribution and structure of population, mortality, fertility, and migration to peripheral issues of social segregation. Popular topics include urbanization, labor force, sex composition, literacy, and population growth. Distribution of population and density studies have amounted to only 2 in 30 years. Population texts are in abundance. The Punjab University is the headquarters of the Association of Population Geographers, which publishes the journal "Population Geography." Many advances are still needed in a timely fashion. 相似文献
6.
Dupaquier J 《Acta geographica》1998,(116):5-22
World population growth from settlement of the continents to future population size is broadly traced in this work. Population growth has accelerated greatly in the past two centuries and especially since 1950. The first billion was reached only in 1850, while the fifth billion, in 1986, required only 11 years. Past population growth was slow, irregular, and variable from continent to continent. Population estimates for prehistory have a margin of error of around 50%. Modern man first appeared in Africa or possibly the Middle East around 100,000 BC. The three great centers of population in China, India, and the Middle East and Mediterranean area developed during the Neolithic Revolution and have maintained their importance. At least 500,000 years ago, humans began using fire and clothing to escape the limits of their biotype and geographic area of origin. The peopling of the continents was not achieved by massive displacement of surplus population, but by movement of small groups into empty space where they proliferated. World population was an estimated 460-510 million in 1500, with probably 135 million in China, 95 million in India, and 80 million in Europe. The balance between fertility and mortality postulated by transition theory has not occurred in Europe. World population is projected to increase from 2.5 billion to 6 billion between 1950 and 2000, with 61% in Asia, 12% in Africa, 9% in Latin America, and 5% in Europe. The world rate of population growth is still about 1.4% annually. The demographic explosion will have been a transitory episode in human history, but revolutionary in its impact. 相似文献
7.
Gosal GS 《Population geography : a journal of the Association of Population Geographers of India》1982,4(1-2):33-53
Apart from a generalized discussion on the trends of population growth in India during the post-Independence decades and its socio economic implications, this paper examinies in some detail the spatal patterns of population change in India during 1971-1981. The discussion is mainly based on what has emerged on 3 maps depicting percentage change in general and rural and urban population change in India during this decade. While areas of rapid growth of population continue to be associated with net in-migration resulting from: 1) the development of manufacturing industries, mining, trade, and miscellaneous services, all leading to acceleration in the process of urbanization, 2) the development of irrigation and reclamation of land bringing about increased intensity and extension in farming, and 3) infiltration from neighboring countries, particularly from Bangladesh. The areas of relatively low growth are mostly those which have suffered net out-migration induced by pressure of population and paucity of resources or a desire to seek better avenues of employment elsewhere. Superimposed on this is the new trend of declining rate of natural increase, such as in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which has played its own role in bringing down the overall growth rate. Likewise there are areas, such as in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Rajasthan, where recent breakthroughs in the mortality rate, with the birth rate staying at a high level, has stepped up the process of demographic dynamism. A comparison of the spatial patterns of 1971-1981 with those witnessed in precious decades brings out important chnges in these patterns which are occurring as a result of the various areas of the country getting into different phases of the second stage of the "demographic transition." With a view to bringing the benefits of socioeconomic progress to the door steps of all sections of the society in all parts of the country, it is necessary to bring about a substantial decline in the birth rate without any further loss of time. 相似文献
8.
长江三角洲地区人口分布演化与偏移增长 总被引：13，自引：1，他引：12
随着经济社会的快速发展,长江三角洲地区各城市之间人口分布发生了明显的变化,人口的流动和迁移正在成为长江三角洲16个城市间人口发展最为集中的矛盾点。采用密度分析、不均衡指数法、重心分析以及偏移-分享分析(shift-share analysis)等方法,分析改革开放以来长江三角洲地区人口分布演化的特征和规律,发现这一时期该区域人口分布演化呈现明显的阶段性,人口分布重心总体南移,向省市首府集中的趋势明显,人口偏移增长在不同区域层面具有明显的差异,这种人口分布演化的趋势主要受经济社会发展的驱动,同时也受到区域人口政策的影响。 相似文献
9.
城市空间增长与人口密度变化之间的关联关系 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
探究城市空间增长与人口密度变化之间的关联关系是城市可持续发展研究的基础,对制定有效的土地政策、促进城市紧凑发展具有重要意义。选取中国和欧洲23个人口100万以上城市作为研究样本,采用1990年、2000年和2014年3期土地利用数据和人口数据,计算各时段样本城市空间增长速率,建立城市紧凑度指标,并将城市空间增长方式划分为紧凑型、保持型和蔓延型,进一步探讨了样本城市的空间增长特征、人口密度变化特征及两者之间的关系。主要结论为：① 人口密度降低这一现象普遍存在于中国和欧洲城市,中国城市人口密度相对较高且降低速率较快,欧洲城市人口密度相对较低且降低速率较慢;1990—2014年中国城市半径的增长速率明显快于欧洲城市半径的增长速率。城市空间增长速率与人口密度变化速率呈现强负相关关系（Pearson相关系数为-0.693）;② 1990—2000年中欧城市主要以紧凑型方式增长。2000—2014年中国城市主要以蔓延型方式增长,且人口密度随时间下降的速率加快;欧洲城市主要以紧凑型和保持型方式增长,人口密度降低速率减小;③ 紧凑型的空间增长方式并不一定会带来人口密度的升高,但会减缓人口密度下降的速率。中欧城市对比分析表明,城市维持紧凑型空间增长方式,则城市人口密度随时间下降速率减慢;而空间增长方式由紧凑型转为蔓延型,将加剧城市人口密度随时间下降。 相似文献
10.
全新世中期西辽河流域聚落选址与环境解读 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
通过x2 检验等方式提出,全新世中期西辽河流域聚落对海拔400~500 m 高程区域选择倾向十分明显,在这一高程内又偏重于距河床10~40 m 的坡地,兴隆洼、赵宝沟以及红山文化期这一特征最突出,夏家店下层文化期聚落位置表现出以400~500 m 高程区为核心向高、低两个方位发展。针对上述聚落环境选择特征指出：① 根据人类生存方式可将西辽河流域划 出林地与草地两大地带,两者的交界处即400~500 m 高程区域内以坡地为主的林缘地带,兴隆洼、赵宝沟文化期人类的采集、渔猎活动主要集中在这里,随着红山、夏家店下层文化期 原始农业的发展,聚落选址从原来的林缘地带向草地甚至林地扩展,前后不同考古文化期的 聚落位置界定了自然环境的空间属性与地域差异。② 西辽河流域受地带性环境因素制约,即使在全新世大暖期林缘地带的动植物资源也并不丰富,仅能满足人口密度极低的兴隆洼、赵宝沟文化期人类获取食物的需求,红山文化以后随着人口增殖原始农业逐渐发展起来。③ 全新世中期西辽河流域聚落密度很低,人口规模在这一地区的环境容量之下,农业开发尚未对西辽河流域带来明显的环境扰动。 相似文献
11.
根据1951-2001年奥地利人口调查统计数据,分析了近50年来奥地利人口变化的时空间规律,以及人口变化中的增长区和下降区的区域配置等特征,并建立人口变化模式。研究表明：20世纪后半叶奥地利经历了其他欧盟国所表现出的城市化、城市郊区化和人口老龄化的各个过程。特别是城市老龄化表现更为突出,据预测推算,到2035年奥地利将会有1/3的人口超过60岁。在分析过程中,不仅应用了行政区划的区域方法,而且也依据土地利用的经济性质,在“土地经济生产小区”的基底上,对人口的变化规律进行了更为深入的透视。研究结果显示：奥地利西部阿尔卑斯山地中的城市区域人口增长幅度最大。沿着捷克和斯洛伐克边界伸展的北部和东北部区域是最严重的人口缺失地区。而奥地利阿尔卑斯山地东部的一些早期产业都市及其郊区,乃至更远一些的南部和东南部的老工业区域,目前由于普遍存在着经济的困境,也直接导致了这些地区人口的下降。但奥地利未来的总人口趋势将持续稳定。 相似文献
12.
云南陡坡地优化利用若干问题研究—以滇西北地区为例 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
郝性中 《云南地理环境研究》2001,13(2):78-85
云南陡坡垦殖较为严重,滇西北地区尤为突出。主要原因有宜耕地缺乏、社会经济发展滞后、粮食单产低、人口增长较快、交通不便等。陡坡垦殖导致植被破坏、土壤侵蚀;环境变劣,部分地区失去生存条件;灾害频繁,威胁中下游地区生命和财产安全。退耕还林是一项系统工程。工作尚未大规模开展之前,应认真落实应退耕地面积和退耕还林地块,积极解决群众温饱,减轻土地压力。退耕还林规划应与区域发展规划协调一致;建立农林复合系统,实现陡坡地优化利用;组织技术培训,建立技术保障系统;发展交通事业,改善生产生活条件。 相似文献
13.
未来情景下中国高温的人口暴露度变化及影响因素研究 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
基于RCP 8.5气候情景下21个高分辨率全球气候模式的日最高气温数据和A2r社会经济发展情景下的人口数据,以高温日数和人口数量的乘积构建高温的人口暴露度指标,采用多个气候模式集合平均的方法从网格单元尺度分析未来不同时段中国高温和强危害性高温的人口暴露度变化,并从全国和气象地理分区两种空间尺度研究人口暴露度变化的影响因素。研究表明：未来情景下,中国高温的人口暴露度明显增加,2021-2040年、2041-2060年、2061-2080年和2081-2100年相比基准时段1981-2010年分别增加了1.3、2.0、3.6和5.9倍,强危害性高温的人口暴露度增加更为显著,相比基准时段分别增加了2.0、8.3、24.2和82.7倍。高温的人口暴露度在华北、黄淮、华南、江南、江淮、西南和江汉地区增加较为明显,其中华北、黄淮、华南和江南最为显著;强危害性高温的人口暴露度在华北、黄淮、江南、江淮、西南和江汉等区域增加较为明显,其中华北、黄淮、江南和江淮最为显著;未来情景下人口暴露度的变化主要受气候因子的影响,其次受人口和气候因子的共同影响,单独人口因子的影响很小。全国尺度上,气候因子对未来不同时段人口暴露度变化的影响逐渐减弱,贡献率由70.0%左右逐渐减至60.0%左右。人口和气候因子的共同作用逐渐增强,贡献率由20.0%左右逐渐增至40.0%左右。 相似文献
14.
印度是人口仅次于中国的发展中国家,也是“一带一路”倡议的重要节点。印度正处于城市化快速发展阶段,分析印度城市化特征具有重要意义,而中国国内关于印度城市化和城市扩张的研究和报道相对较少。论文选取10个人口超过100万的印度城市,获取1990、2000和2014年基于Landsat影像的土地利用数据和人口数据,采用圈层分析法将城市划分为等间距的同心圆圈层后统计各圈层内建设用地密度,选取增长率、密度、强度以及景观指数指标对印度城市扩张进行多维度对比分析。研究发现：①城市土地扩张快于人口增长,1990—2000、2000—2014年土地年均增长率分别是人口年均增长率的3.27和2.43倍。②建设用地密度随着与城市中心距离增加而衰减,且在一定距离内快速下降;同圈层内建设用地密度随时间逐渐增加;城市以分散的方式向外扩张,城市形态变得更加松散,特别是在第二阶段(2000—2014年)。③建设用地斑块破碎化程度与城市扩张强度的空间变化相吻合。城市扩张最活跃区域与景观破碎度最严重区域都随时间不断向外推进,城市扩张对景观格局产生显著影响。在全球城市扩张背景下,研究结果将为理解城市扩张时空特征而提供印度样本,也将为研究其他地区城市扩张提供分析方法和思路。 相似文献
15.
Kaur S Chandna RC 《Population geography : a journal of the Association of Population Geographers of India》1983,5(1-2):87-104
The post-Independence period in India has witnessed a gradual decline of some occupations and services and the emergence of others. In the present paper an attempt has been made to analyze the change in the industrial structure of India's male working force by calculating an index of change. The index so calculated for 2 decades separately (1961-1971 and 1971-1981) is portrayed cartographically. The overall low degree of change recorded by the country's male working force establishes the weakness of India's industrial infrastructure. Consequently, the secondary sector seems to have failed in generating employment opportunities on a large scale. Regionally, the peripheral areas have recorded a higher incidence of change than the interior heartland of the country. The areas that were overwhelmingly agricultural and had experienced developments in the field of agriculture alone exhibited a low degree of change in comparison to those that had experienced developments both in the field of agriculture and industry. During the last inter-censal period (1971-1981) the country recorded an accelerated rate of change in the industrial structure of its male working force. Spatially too, the increasing rate of change has spread to new regions. 相似文献
16.
全新世的气候、环境变化与人类文明发展之间的关系一直是学术界研究的热点问题。长江下游地区崧泽文化时期（6 000—5 300 a B. P.）是文明起源的关键阶段,该时期稻作农业经济社会是否已建立及其影响机制依然不清楚。通过对常州地区青城墩遗址的植物大遗存研究,在24份浮选样品中共发现了131粒炭化水稻（Oryza sativa）种子和2 262粒炭化水稻基盘,该结果表明青城墩遗址先民在崧泽文化时期的农业是以种植水稻为主的稻作农业。结合前人研究工作发现,长江下游地区崧泽文化时期人类主要的生业经济是以种植水稻为主的稻作农业经济,辅之以采集葫芦（Lagenaria siceraria）、芡实（Euryale ferox）、桃（Prunus persica）、甜瓜（Cucumis melo）等野生植物资源为主的采集经济。7 000 a B. P.后海平面上升速率减缓和海岸线的东撤为开展水稻农业生产的古人类提供了大量的栖居环境,该时期相对温暖湿润的气候条件为水稻农业生产提供了良好的生境条件。6 000 a B. P.后的人口压力是长江下游地区古人类选择以稳定和高产的稻作农业为主体生业经济的原因。 相似文献
17.
基于CMIP5的逐日最高温度模拟资料、GGI情景数据库逐年代人口数据,在RCP4.5情景下,以对应栅格高温日数与人口数量的乘积作为人口对高温的暴露度指标,通过多模式集合平均预估未来中国人口对不同强度高温的暴露度变化。结果表明：相比于基准时段（1981-2010年）,中国人口对高温和强危害性高温的暴露度从2021-2040年开始明显增加,至2081-2100年暴露度分别增加了5.7倍和17.5倍;除了中国西部部分地区外,全国大部地区人群均受高温的影响,在21世纪中后期中东部大部人口对高温的暴露度超过10.0×106人?d;相比基准时段,随着年代的增长,中国人口对强危害性高温的暴露度在范围和强度上均有明显增加;2081-2100年,人口对高温和强危害性高温的暴露度增幅减缓。从气象地理区域上看,未来各时段人口对高温、强危害性高温的暴露度均有一定程度增加,但增加明显的区域主要集中在华北、黄淮、江南和江淮地区,华南地区对强危害性高温的暴露度增幅较小。高温日数变化对全国人口对高温暴露度的变化所产生的作用最明显。多模式集合的预估结果可以为防控未来高温风险提供重要的参考价值。 相似文献
18.
中国政府通过历史罕见的人口流动管控遏制新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情爆发。人口流动管控措施对于疫情防控起到何种作用?又如何影响中国人口流动和短期分布的地理特征?本文通过SEIR病毒传播动力学模型评估管控措施的有效性,利用移动定位数据追踪中国人口流动时空变化,以回顾COVID-19重大疫情人口流动管控的正负效应：① 人口流动管控使COVID-19疫情日新增感染曲线显著平稳化,成为中国应对COVID-19疫情重大突发性公共卫生事件时非药物干预措施的重要组成部分。人口流动管控使中国日新增感染者波峰日推迟1.9倍到达,当日感染人数下降63.4%。在选取的5个省份、5个湖北省城市、6个湖北外城市中,波峰日分别推迟1.4~8倍、5.6~16.7倍和2.3~7.2倍到达,当日感染人数分别下降56.9%~85.5%、62.2%~89.2%和67.1%~86.2%。因此,人口流动管控为疫情防控准备争取了宝贵的缓冲时间,极大降低了疫情集中爆发对于医疗设施的冲击;② 人口流动管控限制人口地级流动。2020年1—4月中国人口地级行政区划之间流动强度较2019年同期日均下降40.18%,其中,2020年“春运”节后返工流（1月25日—2月18日）平均下降66.4%,对社会运行与经济发展产生重大影响;③ 人口流动管控与人们对于疫情的恐惧导致2020年中国农历春节的返乡流受到显著影响,并短期改变中国人口时空分布的动态趋势。本文有助于理解重大突发性公共卫生事件下政府人口流动管控策略及其对人口流动与分布地理特征的影响。 相似文献
19.
人口迁移是一个时空路径依赖过程,同时受迁移存量和周边迁移状况影响。当前人口迁移预测大多建立在时间序列模型之上,重点考虑迁移流在时间维度上的联系,忽视了其中的时空关联。该文将特征向量时空滤波方法与普通泊松模型相结合,考虑迁移流中可能存在的时空滞后和同期两种结构,对1985-2015年不同时段的中国省际人口迁移流数据进行建模和估计,并利用拟合程度较优的模型预测2015-2025年省际人口迁移的发展趋势。结果表明:1)特征向量时空滞后和同期滤波泊松模型均能较好地模拟研究时段省际人口迁移过程,自1985年以来我国省际人口迁移流不仅受迁出地和迁入地经济、社会等因素影响,也与过去迁移存量及周边迁移流密切相关;2)区域人口规模和GDP对迁移流的“推—拉”作用符合预期,地区人口规模较高和经济发展水平较低会促进人口外迁,反之则有利于吸引外来人口;3)与特征向量时空滞后滤波泊松模型相比,时空同期模型更便于捕捉省际人口迁移过程中的时空路径依赖特性,意味着当前人口迁移流的发展更易受到同时期周边迁移流的影响,表现出明显的羊群效应;4)预计2015-2025年我国省际迁移总量持续增加,呈现更集聚的空间模式,高迁入与高迁出区域在空间上相连,形成一条南北贯通的“高密度迁移地带”。将特征向量时空滤波模型拓展到人口迁移这一空间相互作用领域,可为当前构建更加完善的要素市场化配置体制机制等提供科学参考。 相似文献
20.
南京都市区人口空间扩张与多中心化 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
20世纪90年代以来,中国进入了前所未有的快速城市化阶段,大城市人口增长和空间演变剧烈,值得进行深入研究。以南京市为研究对象,先采用地理图形分析方法对都市区人口空间扩张过程进行了分析,后又采用数学模型方法对都市区人口分布多中心化趋势进行了系统研究。结果显示:在总人口持续快速增长的背景下,南京都市区人口高密度空间已延伸到近郊区,且远郊区中的区县政府驻地和一些优先开发区域的人口密度也已很高;城市人口空间分布已出现多中心化趋势,除了老城区北部的山西路已发育成除市中心新街口之外的人口次中心以外,郊区人口集聚最强的热点--河西新城区的万达广场也有望发育成另一个人口次中心。 相似文献