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1.
This article is a long‐term retrospective study of the reconstruction that followed the 1931 earthquake that struck the city of Napier in Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. It particularly focuses on the positive outcomes in reducing the risk of future disaster at both local and national levels. These were facilitated by three key decisions and strategies: (i) reconstruction was initiated immediately after the disaster; (ii) it was designed as a balance between continuity and change; and (iii) it relied on a decentralised, integrative decision‐making process.  相似文献   

2.
A number of studies have indicated that the long term habitability of Kiribati, a low‐lying country in the central tropical Pacific Ocean, is tenuous given the impacts of climate change, particularly sea level rise. In an effort to plan for the resultant challenges ahead, a number of national policies and programs have surfaced to reduce the impact of localized changes on people's livelihoods. This study explores how local community members (n = 60) have taken it upon themselves to respond to the impacts of climate change by utilizing a number of different strategies. The results highlight that: first, respondents consider climate change to be the most concerning issue for sustaining their livelihoods; second, respondents have built physical defences, relocated temporarily or permanently, and sought government assistance to adapt to localized climate‐related impacts; and third, the majority of respondents indicated that they would migrate as a long term strategy to respond to the future impacts of climate change.  相似文献   

3.
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4.
Climate change and climate anomalies are inducing strong variations in the high‐mountain environment, driving the responses of physical and biological systems differently. This paper assesses tree‐ring growth responses to climate for two Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) sites at different altitudes from an Ortles‐Cevedale Group (OCG; internal zones of the Central Italian Alps) valley site and reports some examples of climate impact on glacier dynamics in the OCG in recent decades. Growth–climate relationships between tree‐ring chronologies and meteorological data were established by means of Pearson's correlation and response functions. In the high‐altitude chronology we found a strong signal of July temperatures, whereas the low‐altitude chronology also contained a signal of summer precipitation. Climate anomalies occurring in these months proved to influence tree growth at the two sites differently. In summer 2003 extreme climatic conditions established over Europe and the Alps, strongly affecting physical and biological systems. Spruce responses to the climate anomaly of 2003 were more evident with a one‐year lag. The high‐altitude site profited from the warmer growing season, whereas trees at the low‐altitude site experienced water stress conditions and their growth was strongly inhibited also in the following year. Glacier mass loss in the OCG in 2003 was the highest since yearly measurement started. The examples reported confirm the strong and even divergent variations affecting the Alpine environment, induced by recent climate change.  相似文献   

5.
The impacts of climate change on China’s agriculture are measured based on Ricardian model. By using county-level cross-sectional data on agricultural net revenue, climate, and other economic and geographical data for 1275 agriculture-dominated counties in the period of 1985-1991, we find that both higher temperature and more precipitation will have overall positive impact on China’s agriculture. However, the impacts vary seasonally and regionally. Higher temperature in all seasons except spring increases agricultural net revenue while more precipitation is beneficial in winter but is harmful in summer. Applying the model to five climate scenarios in the 2020s and 2050s shows that the North, the Northeast, the Northwest, and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau would always benefit from climate change while the South and the Southwest may be negatively affected. For the East and the Central China, most scenarios show that they may benefit from climate change. In conclusion, climate change would be beneficial to the whole China.  相似文献   

6.
ABSTRACT

It is commonly assumed that personal experiences of a changing climate will influence people’s attitudes to the extent that they will be more likely to acknowledge anthropogenic climate change as a real threat and therefore be more willing to accept both mitigation and adaptation efforts. In the article, the authors examine how survey participants’ personal experiences of extreme events and climate-related changes in the natural environment influenced their perceptions of climate change. Using data from a nationally representative survey conducted in Norway in 2015 and the results of logistic regressions, the authors find that individual observations of changes in nature were linked to higher levels of concern with regard to climate change, as well as to attitudes that were more positive towards personal mitigation and adaption efforts. Somewhat counter-intuitively, they also find that participants who had personally experienced a natural hazard event were less concerned about climate change compared with participants without such experiences. The authors conclude that personal experience of the consequences of climate change may in some cases have a limited effect on enhancing people’s concerns about climate change.  相似文献   

7.
The effect of climate change on maize production in the semi-humid and semi-arid, agro-climatic zones III-IV of Kenya was evaluated using two General Circulation Models (GCMs): the Canadian Climate Center Model (CCCM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), as well as the CERES-Maize model. Long-term climate data was obtained from three meteorological stations situated in eastern, central and western regions of Kenya, while maize data was obtained from six sites within the regions. The climate scenarios were projected to the year 2030. Temperature increases of 2·29 and 2·89°C are predicted by the CCCM and GFDL, respectively. Rainfall levels are predicted to remain unchanged, but there are thought to be shifts in distribution. It is predicted that the short-rains season (October–January) will experience some increased rainfall, while the long-rains season (April–July) will show a decrease. Maize yields are predicted to decrease in zone III areas, while an increase is predicted in zone IV areas. However, the predicted changes in yields are low since they all fall below 500 kg ha−1, except the Homa Bay site. Thus, to counter the adverse effects of climate change on maize production, it may be necessary to use early maturing cultivars, practice early planting, and in eastern Kenya, shift to growing maize during the short-rains season.  相似文献   

8.
Climate change across the contiguous United States is investigated using a modified version of Thornthwaite's climate classification scheme. This approach allows both moisture and thermal conditions to be examined simultaneously for a better assessment of multivariate climate change. Changes in area of different climate types over time is determined using the climate year approach and the spatial nature of climate change is examined by computing climate types based on averages from three thirty-year periods over the twentieth century. Over the study period from 1895 to 2005, statistically significant changes in areal coverage of different climate types have occurred. In the eastern half of the country, climate divisions have become wetter and changed to moister climate categories. The most prominent change has occurred in the Deep South, where the climate has changed to both a lower thermal category and a wetter moisture category. Much of the country has experienced positive temperature trends, but only climate divisions in the Southwest and Upper Midwest show changes to higher thermal categories.  相似文献   

9.
At a time when climate change is being defined and grappled with around the world as a looming large‐scale environmental crisis, low‐lying Pacific islands are being publicized in a range of practices as ‘disappearing islands’, and their inhabitants as future ‘climate refugees’. This paper is concerned with the disappearing island as a space in which new intersections between environmentalism and tourism can be explored. It analyzes specifically western representational practices associated with climate change imperatives on Tuvalu, an atoll state in the central Pacific. New phenomena are emerging there such as climate change tourism and the transformation of the islands into showcases of renewable energy. These phenomena are analyzed in order to understand how climate change meanings are being shaped by various participants in the debate. I argue that Pacific islanders are heroized as climate change saviours when environmentalists attempt to locate ethnocentric notions of environmentally harmonious, ‘traditional’ culture on disappearing islands. Further, islanders are objectified in the rhetoric of climate change tourism. Imagined destinies for atoll dwellers as climate saviours are sited uncomfortably alongside voyeuristic gazes turned towards inundated islands. Competing forces of compassion and voyeurism produced in the name of the Tuvaluan indigene are entrenching an iconic role for the Tuvaluan atoll dweller as climate change hero/victim.  相似文献   

10.
在未来的亚洲中中气候变冷过程中，从咸海干涸海底和卡拉博加戈尔湾等等内陆湖泊和地区吹起的盐粒，农田排出的农药残余物，尘埃微粒等－固态大陆型气溶胶具有主要的作用。在这一过程中，环流及该区域的生物系统对气候的变化可能起着相反的影响。  相似文献   

11.
Long‐term observations of partly debris‐covered glaciers have allowed us to assess the impact of supra‐glacial debris on volumetric changes. In this paper, the behaviour of the partially debris‐covered, 3.6 km2 tongue of Pasterze Glacier (47°05′N, 12°44′E) was studied in the context of ongoing climate changes. The right part of the glacier tongue is covered by a continuous supra‐glacial debris mantle with variable thicknesses (a few centimetres to about 1 m). For the period 1964–2000 three digital elevation models (1964, 1981, 2000) and related debris‐cover distributions were analysed. These datasets were compared with long‐term series of glaciological field data (displacement, elevation change, glacier terminus behaviour) from the 1960s to 2006. Differences between the debriscovered and the clean ice parts were emphasised. Results show that volumetric losses increased by 2.3 times between the periods 1964–1981 and 1981–2000 with significant regional variations at the glacier tongue. Such variations are controlled by the glacier emergence velocity pattern, existence and thickness of supra‐glacial debris, direct solar radiation, counter‐radiation from the valley sides and their changes over time. The downward‐increasing debris thickness is counteracting to a compensational stage against the common decrease of ablation with elevation. A continuous debris cover not less than 15 cm in thickness reduces ablation rates by 30–35%. No relationship exists between glacier retreat rates and summer air temperatures. Substantial and varying differences of the two different terminus parts occurred. Our findings clearly underline the importance of supra‐glacial debris on mass balance and glacier tongue morphology.  相似文献   

12.
内蒙古典型地区牧户气候变化感知与适应的实证研究   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  
侯向阳  韩颖 《地理研究》2011,30(10):1753-1764
我国北方草原地区是气候变化影响的脆弱和敏感地区。研究北方草原地区牧户对气候变化的感知和适应,对于提高牧区气候变化的适应能力,促进草原地区可持续发展意义重大。本文利用问卷调查的实证分析方法,研究了内蒙古草甸草原、荒漠草原、荒漠生态区牧户对气候变化趋势和极端气候灾害事件的感知和适应的现状与行为特征。结果表明：过去30年内蒙...  相似文献   

13.
The EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) crop model, developed by scientists of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), has been successfully applied to the study of erosion, water pollution, crop growth and production in the US but is yet to be introduced for serious research purposes in other countries or regions. This paper reports on the applicability of the EPIC 8120 crop model for the assessment of the potential impacts of climate variability and climate change on crop productivity in sub‐Saharan West Africa, using Nigeria as the case study. Among the crops whose productivity has been successfully simulated with this model are five of West Africa's staple food crops: maize, millet, sorghum (guinea corn), rice and cassava. Thus, using the model, the sensitivities of maize, sorghum and millet to seasonal rainfall were demonstrated with coefficients of correlation significant at over 98 per cent confidence limits. The validation tests were based on a comparison of the observed and the model‐generated yields of rice and maize. The main problems of validation relate to the multiplicity of crop varieties with contrasting performances under similar field conditions. There are also the difficulties in representing micro‐environments in the model. Thus, some gaps appear between the observed and the simulated yields, arising from data or model deficiencies, or both. Based on the results of the sensitivity and validation tests, the EPIC crop model could be satisfactorily employed in assessing the impacts of and adaptations to climate variability and climate change. Its use for the estimation of production and the assessment of vulnerabilities need to be pursued with further field surveys and field experimentation.  相似文献   

14.
气候变化对甘肃定西、安徽合肥小麦生产影响研究   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  
由于大气中温室气体的不断增加, 全球气候发生了巨大变化。据最新气候模式模拟研究表 明未来全球气候将发生更为剧烈的变化, 这必将对很多部门产生显著的影响特别是对气候变化 十分敏感的农业。尤其对于中国这样的人口大国, 农业作为社会最基本也是最重要生产部门之 一, 气候变化将对中国的农业生产带来巨大的影响。小麦是中国的第二大作物, 其中冬小麦占全 国小麦总产量近90%, 因此评价气候变化对中国小麦生产影响是十分必要的。为了分析在未来气 候变化情景下中国小麦生产可能遇到的风险, 以15 年ECMWF 再分析实验数据(1979~1993)作为 边界条件驱动PRECIS 区域气候模式模拟产生作物模型所需要的气候资料并输入CERES-Wheat 模型, 验证CERES-Wheat 模型与区域气候模式PRECIS 结合的模拟能力。在以上验证工作的基 础上, 将区域气候模式PRECIS 的模拟结果与作物模型CERES-Wheat 相连接, 同时考虑到CO2 对小麦的直接施肥作用, 模拟了两个小麦站点(定西和合肥)在IPCC SRES A2 和B2 情景下雨养 和灌溉小麦的变化趋势。得到如下结论: 无论是在A2 情景还是B2 情景, 定西和合肥的小麦产量 都会有所增加, 但增加的幅度相差很大。A2 情景的增产效应一般要大于B2 情景的增产效应, 灌 溉小麦比雨养小麦更加受益于气候变化, 冬小麦(合肥) 产量的增长幅度要大于春小麦(定西) 增 长幅度。CO2 对小麦生长的肥效作用十分明显, 产量增幅很大。以上结果说明未来气候变化可能 会对我国的小麦生产带来益处, 但由于未来气候情景模拟的不确定性以及CO2 肥效作用通常是 在作物过程中的水肥条件完全满足的情况下才充分体现, 这都给研究结果带来了不确定性, 但本 项研究为评价未来气候变化对中国小麦生产影响提供了一种全面的评价方法。  相似文献   

15.
利用ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式SRES A1B气候情景下预估2016-2075年间60 a的气温及降水资料,通过分析其总体趋势、年代际变化及突变特征,研究德令哈盆地未来气候的变化趋势。预估结果显示：2016-2075年,德令哈盆地气温将可能呈上升趋势,四季及年平均气温的变化总体上基本保持一致,上升幅度在3～4 ℃之间,其中夏季和全年的增温速率相对较大;降水量在未来60 a将基本保持平稳,有微弱的下降趋势,年际间变化以夏季最为显著,降水不均将易导致极端气候事件的发生;无论气温还是降水,预估未来都将有突变发生,气温将在2035年前后发生一次突变,降水量则分别在2030 s末和2040 s初各发生一次突变。  相似文献   

16.
In this study, the Land Use Dynamic Simulator model was applied to investigate the impact of farm credit as an adaptation strategy to cope with effects of climate variability on agricultural land‐use change and crop production in the Vea watershed in Ghana. The authors identified the determinants of crop choices within the landscape (e.g., farm household and biophysical characteristics of farm plot). The crop choice sub‐model was then linked to the crop yield sub‐model to determine the yields of selected crops. In adapting to the impacts of climate variability, the maize credit adoption sub‐model under the maize cultivation credit scenario was integrated into decision‐making. This was simulated for a 20‐year period, and compared with the business‐as‐usual scenario. Under the simulated maize credit scenario, maize adopters increased from about 20 per cent to about 50 per cent and the area allocated for maize cultivation significantly increased by about 266 per cent. Consequently, the average annual aggregated household crop yield increased by 6.3 per cent higher than in the business‐as‐usual scenario. This simulation study shows that access to maize credit can significantly influence agricultural land‐use change and food availability in the study area. However, although access to farm credit may translate into food availability, the sustainability of this strategy is questionable.  相似文献   

17.
Abstract: This article discusses the redevelopment of a significant area of Wellington city's waterfront, centred on the Chaffers Park district between the national museum, Te Papa Tongarewa, and Oriental Bay. This site is now being transformed into Waitangi Park. The analysis seeks to determine whether or not the redevelopment will be successful, by assessing the wider context of the issue and evaluating the perspectives of stakeholders.  相似文献   

18.
Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology, and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study, LPJ model modified according to features of China＇s natural ecosystems was em- ployed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2, B2 and A1B scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions, vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for China＇s natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west, but the pattern of ecosystem vulner- ability would not be altered by climate change, which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in eco- system vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale, natural ecosystem in China would be slightly affected by cli- mate change. However, in mid-term and long-term scales, there would be severely adverse effect, particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition.  相似文献   

19.
Modeling the impacts of climate change on China''s agriculture   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
1 Introduction Since recognition of the potential climate change [IPPC, 1990], efforts have been made to estimate the economic impacts of projected changes in climate on important sectors, such as agriculture, forestry and ecosystem, coastal zones and fisheries, water resource, and energy development. Although several sectors have been studied, none have received more attention than agriculture. Countrywide economic analysis has been completed for the United States[1-4], India[5] and Brazil…  相似文献   

20.
在简要介绍气候变化对欧洲的影响、欧盟的气候变化适应举措的基础上,分析了欧盟水资源管理、海洋与渔业、沿海地区、农业、林业、生物多样性、金融与保险、减灾防灾、人类健康等9个重点领域的气候变化适应政策行动;总结了欧盟气候变化适应政策行动的特征：以“自上而下”的政府层面举措与“自下而上”的脆弱经济部门应对策略相结合,采取分阶段的推进方式,并重视相关平台工具的开发应用;最后,结合我国国情和气候变化适应行动现状,提出了我国加强气候变化适应政策行动的建议：及时制定气候变化适应国家战略;加强气候变化适应的科技基础设施与条件平台建设;加快完善气候变化适应的体制机制建设;强化气候变化适应的能力建设。  相似文献   

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