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1.
Albert A. Bartlett 《Natural Resources Research》2006,15(3):151-164
This paper examines the implications of statements by Australia’s Minister of… Resources that Australia’s exports of coal
are growing rapidly and that Australia’s coal will last “110 years at current rates of production.” If one assumes that coal
production P(t), follows a Gaussian curve (similar to a Hubbert curve) one can construct a family of Gaussian curves showing possible future
paths of P(t) which are consistent with the cited “110 years.” Each curve reaches a maximum after which P(t) declines toward zero. Knowledge of the present value of dP/dt allows one member of the family to be identified as the most probable future path of P(t). Families of curves and tabular data are presented for resource quantities that would last 50, 100 and 200 years “at current
rates of production.” If, instead, Australia’s P(t) follows a declining exponential curve (exp(−kt)) with k = (1/110) per year, the stated quantity of coal will allow production to continue forever, with P(t) declining with a half life of 76 y. This and more rapidly declining exponential paths are the only paths that can be said
to be sustainable. The envelope of the family of Gaussian curves divides the (P, t) plane into “allowed” and “forbidden” areas.
The declining exponential curve divides the “allowed” area into an upper area that is “terminal” and a lower area that is
“sustainable.” These facts, coupled with Australia’s expectations of rapid growth of its population, suggest that Australia’s
present resource policies are “anti-sustainable” and that the people of Australia need to rethink their present policy of
rapidly exporting their fossil fuels. 相似文献
2.
Biodiversity and conservation in the Tibetan Plateau 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The Tibetan Plateau (Qinghai-Xizang Plateau) is a unique biogeographic region in the world, where various landscapes, altitudinal
belts, alpine ecosystems, and endangered and endemic species have been developed. A total of 26 altitudinal belts, 28 spectra
of altitudinal belts, 12,000 species of vascular plant, 5,000 species of epiphytes, 210 species of mammals, and 532 species
of birds have been recorded. The plateau is also one of the centers of species formation and differentiation in the world
To protect the biodiversity of the plateau, about 80 nature reserves have been designated, of which 45 are national or provincial,
covering about 22% of the plateau area. Most of the nature reserves are distributed in the southeastern plateau. Recently,
the Chinese government has initiated the “Natural Forests Protection Project of China,” mainly in the upper reaches of the
Yangtze and Yellow rivers. “No logging” policies have been made and implemented for these areas. 相似文献
3.
Resource use by a country is considered in the context of a production relationship. Resources include natural, produced,
and human capital. The taxation of each of these resource groups has an impact on the efficient use of these inputs through
changes in the relative prices. A computable general equilibrium model (CGE) of the Czech Republic is used to evaluate the
impact that various revenue neutral tax structures have on the allocation of economic activity throughout the economy. A Hicksian
welfare measure is used to determine the impact on society’s welfare of revenue neutral shifts in taxes. The results demonstrate
that the change in the tax structure will result in a welfare improvement by as much as 5% for the Czech Republic. The results
provide insight into the role that “getting the prices right” has on sustainability.
Although the term “sustainable development” was first introduced in a report by the International Union for the Conservation
of Nature and Natural Resources in 1980 it did not gain significant notoriety until the Brundtland Commission report in 1987.
For a more detailed discussion see Jamieson, 1998. 相似文献
4.
Danilo J. Santini 《Natural Resources Research》1998,7(2):101-121
This paper examines three issues related to both the U.S. and world oil supply: (1) the nature of the long-term, postpeak
production profile for the U.S. and, by inference, other regions (the Hubbert curve is used as a “strawman” model); (2) implications
on U.S. energy security of using a modified Hubbert-type conceptual model of prepeak production, testing the adequacy of Latin
America to be the primary source of U.S. oil imports; and (3) the cyclic behavior of oil prices. it shows that U.S. production
will exhibit a more attenuated decline than that simulated by the Hubbert curve and not decline to zero. it asserts that U.S.
production is better predicted by past reserves than past production, but that this argument does not apply to nations that
keep a much larger proportion of reserves in the ground. Such nations could considerably expand production without any growth
in reserves. The paper concedes that the potential total production for these nations could be examined with a Hubbert curve
model linked to reserves, but with great uncertainty. Such an uncertain optimistic forecast predicts that the cumulative production
of Latin America could far exceed that of the United States. Nevertheless, a statistical model of oil prices since 1870 implies
that real wellhead oil prices in the United States are on a long-term upward path, underlying a much more “noisy” cyclical
pattern estimated to include 22- and 27-year cycles. The statistical model predicts a severe oil shock within a few years
(of 1998) but also predicts that through 2030, real oil prices will not reach 1981 levels again. The paper examines U.S. and
world trends in seismic exploration, drilling locations and depths, drilling costs, oil/gas reserves, oil/gas use rates, and
oil demand. After taking these factors into consideration, it concludes that the statistical model of oil prices cannot be
disputed, despite its lack of basis in economic theory. 相似文献
5.
A. I. Orgilyanov E. E. Malkov B. I. Pisarskii P. S. Badminov D. Ganchimeg 《Geography and Natural Resources》2011,32(2):132-139
We examine the various types of mineral waters occurring on the projected specially protected transboundary natural territory
“Istoki Amura”, on the Hentei-Dauria neotectonic high. We suggest the pattern of rational utilization of the mineral springs
according to the nature conservation status of the terrain (nature reserves, national parks, and public access areas). 相似文献
6.
Matthys A. Dippenaar 《Natural Resources Research》2012,21(1):137-142
This short review aims to provide some examples where terrestrial earth sciences—including, for this purpose, geology, engineering
geology, soil science, pedology, hydrology, hydrogeology, geography, geomorphology and environmental sciences—do not interact
sufficiently to ensure optimal results. Apart from different terminologies (for instance, “soil”), different specialist fields
claim expertise over certain disciplines or portions of the Earth’s crust without a proper understanding of the influence
of other specialist fields. This severely limits interdisciplinary understanding, and it is recommended that a better understanding
of interdisciplinary definitions is required to ensure a wider audience. Although this is not a technical article in its own
right, this forms part of a study to link vadose zone hydrology for the disciplines as noted earlier, thereby creating hopefully
a platform for easier communication. 相似文献
7.
社会生态补偿标准测算方法(英文) 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Ecological compensation is a hot subject in academic studies, and the determina-tion of the spatial allocation of compensation payments is a key point in the research of eco-logical compensation. There are two kinds of thoughts in the determination of regional spatial allocation at present: "evaluation of ecological construction cost" and "evaluation of ecosystem services value". This paper analyzes the relationships between social ecological compensation and regional socio-economic development, and establishes two econometric models with the data of 2007 from various provinces in China. Through these models, the impacts of geographical endowments on the regional socio-economic development in various provinces are analyzed from the social justice viewpoint and the concept of "equivalent value of geographical endowments" (EGE for short) is proposed. This paper analyzes the application prospect of EGE in the policy making of regional ecological compensation. The results showed that: (1) the implementation of social ecological compensation is not only an effective guarantee for each region to obtain the equal rights of survival, development and decent environment, but also an essential assurance to the coordinated, balanced and sustainable development among various regions; (2) the regional difference in geographical endowments is an important factor affecting the regional spatial variation of socio-economic development. Therefore, geographical endowments are important bases for the determination of the spatial allocation of compensation payments in social ecological compensation; (3) based on the EGE, the government can determine the spatial allocation of social ecological compensation scientifically, and avoid the "sweeping approach" phenomenon in the policy making process of ecological compensation. 相似文献
8.
Soil loss, water shortage, flooding, sedimentation and water pollution are the major problems affecting the sustainable development
of the Yellow River basin. Their impacts and management strategies are briefly discussed in this paper. The integrated management
strategy, which includes one ultimate goal, four standards, nine countermeasures, and the concept of “three Yellow Rivers,”
is a contemporary management strategy and represents the vision of the Chinese government and engineers for the sustainable
development of the Yellow River basin. 相似文献
9.
Stimulated by the exceeding progress of information technology, the development of mineral exploration has entered a new period of digitization and quantification. The “three components” approach of mineral prediction is suggested as a new approach to the “digital mineral prospecting,” which is based on the geoanomaly analysis, directed by the research on the diversity of mineralization and on the spectrum of mineral deposits. Close combination of these three aspects of quantitative study makes a new starting point to the digital prospecting. In this paper, the basic theories of the “three components” approach of mineral prediction are discussed. In addition, based on the new achievements in the studies on the prediction and assessment of solid minerals and gas–oil resources, we have centered our discussion on the thought of analysis of geoanomaly evolution and on the “5P” method for approaching the target area in the “three components” approach of mineral prediction. 相似文献
10.
亚洲国际河流研究进展 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
1 General situation Entering the 21st century, resource and environmental diplomacy is regarded as a new element for establishing future international patterns of cooperation. Transboundary resources and environmental issues in international river basins … 相似文献
11.
E. D. Attanasi 《Natural Resources Research》1998,7(4):271-279
According to the National Research Council’s Committee on Earth Resources the stated goal of the “sustainability” paradigm
is that the economic activity that maintains current well-being not make future generations worse off, either through environmental
degradation or resource depletion. Coal is not “running out” in the United States but the effects of economic deregulation
of electricity generation, new air quality standards (Phase II of the 1990 Clear Air Act Amendments), and continued restructuring
of the coal mining industry will likely stretch lowsulfur coal supplies in the next decade. The paper discusses these forces
and then presents summary coal quality data in the form of grade-cumulative tonnage relationships for major U.S. producing
areas to show where future low-sulfur coal supplies are likely to come from. The final section considers the potential magnitude
of additional demand for low-sulfur coal, alternative compliance strategies, and implications in terms of maintaining economic
efficiency and in terms of the “sustainability paradigm.” 相似文献
12.
WANG Xiqin ZHANG Yuan LIU Changming 《地理学报(英文版)》2007,17(3):304-316
In this article the meaning of the quantity and quality of environmental flows of river in dualistic water cycle is discussed, and compared with the meaning of unitary water cycle. Based on the analysis of the relationship between environmental flows of river requirements, the efficiency of water resource usage, the consumption coefficient, and the concentration of waste water elimination, the water quantity and water quality calculation method of the environmental flows of river requirements in dualistic water cycle is developed, and the criteria for environmental flows of river requirements are established, and therefore the water quantity-quality combined evaluation of natural river flows requirements are realized Taking the Liaohe River as a model, the environmental flows of river requirements for Xiliao River, Dongliao River, mainstream Liaohe River, Huntai River and northeast rivers along the coasts of the Yellow and Bohai seas in unitary water cycle are calculated, each taking up 39.3%, 63.0%, 43.9%, 43.3% and 43.5% of runoff respectively. Evaluated according to Tennant recommended flow, the results show that： except Xiliao River is ＂median＂, the rest are all upon ＂good＂, the Dongliao River is even ＂very good＂. The corresponding results in dualistic water cycle are that, the proportion of natural flows for each river is 57.5%, 74.1%, 60.8%, 60.3% and 60.4%; while the combined evaluation results show that： considering ＂quantity＂, except Xiliao River, the rest rivers can all achieve the ＂quantity＂ criteria of the en- vironmental flows of river requirements, but if considering the aspect of ＂quality＂, only Dongliao River can reach the ＂quality＂ standard. By water quantity-quality combined evaluation method, only Dongliao River can achieve the criteria. So the water quality is the main factor that determines whether the environmental flows can meet the river ecosystem demands. 相似文献
13.
1 Introduction Oases are unique ecosystems and important residences for our ancestors in arid and semiarid regions of the world, and have deeply been imprinted by human actions, such as Jericho oasis of Jordan Valley, Jarmo oasis of the Euphrates River an… 相似文献
14.
N. N. Klyuev 《Geography and Natural Resources》2011,32(1):1-8
The concept of territorial justice is developed. The principles of ensuring it are formulated. The method is suggested for
determining the regional dissonances between the manufacture of gross national product and income of the population. The method
offers promise as a necessary coupling tool for identifying potential regions: “donors” and “recipients”. 相似文献
15.
The “greatest lake period” means that the lakes are in the stage of their maximum areas. As the paleo lake shorelines are
widely distributed in the lake basins on the Tibetan Plateau, the lake areas during the “greatest lake period” may be inferred
by the last highest lake shorelines. They are several, even tens times larger than that at present. According to the analyses
of tens of lakes on the Plateau, most dating data fell into the range of 40-25 ka BP, some lasted to 20 ka BP. It was corresponded
to the stage 3 of marine isotope and interstitial of last glaciation. The occurrence of maximum areas of lakes marked the
very humid period on the Plateau and was also related to the stronger summer monsoon during that period. 相似文献
16.
Robert C. Milici 《Natural Resources Research》2009,18(2):85-94
The production of liquid fuels from coal will very likely become an important part of the hydrocarbon energy mix of the future,
provided that technical and environmental obstacles are overcome economically. The coal industry should be able to handle
a coal-to-liquids (CTL) industry of modest size, using 60–70 million short tons or 54–64 million metric tonnes of coal per
annum, without premature depletion of the country’s coal reserves. However, attempts to use CTL technology to replace all
petroleum imports would deplete the nation’s coal reserves by the end of the century. 相似文献
17.
Defining the reference state of some perturbed streams and rivers is challenging since their non-altered state is undocumented.
Despite the near-absence of pristine sites in highly anthropogenic areas, information about aquatic communities that existed
prior to human disturbance can be obtained from historic sources. Sediment coring is commonly used in paleolimnology to estimate
past environmental conditions of lakes, but this technique is often not appropriate for studies of lotic systems. An alternative
is to use diatom assemblages present in the guts of fish that were captured in the streams prior to significant human disturbance.
The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the biological integrity of several streams in Ontario and Québec during
the early twentieth century based on “paleo” diatom assemblages extracted from the guts of fish stored in museums. The Eastern
Canadian diatom index (IDEC: Indice Diatomées de l’Est du Canada) was used to evaluate the biological status of “paleo” and
“modern” diatom assemblages. The IDEC shows the position of diatom assemblages on a general pollution gradient. The comparison
of IDEC values calculated for the 1925–1948 and the 2003–2007 periods showed that several streams were severely polluted in
the early 1900s. In general, present water quality has declined compared to the early 1900s. The biological integrity of only
three of the 22 sites has increased. IDEC values were not influenced by the species of fish studied. 相似文献
18.
土地利用变化时空模型的图谱方法--以黄河三角洲为例 总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12
Changesinlandcoverandland-usehaveimpactsandimplicationsatlocal,regionalandglobalscalesbecauseofthewaytheyalterbiophysical,biogeochemicalandhydrologicalstatesandprocesses(Alcamoetal.,1996;Li,1996).Since1990,scientistsathomeandabroadhavebeenpayingattentiontoresearchesonland-useandland-coverchange(LUCC)(Turneretal.,1990;MeyerandTurner,1994),butresearchisnotenoughon"spaceandprocess"ofLUCC(Turneretal.,1995).Spatialrelationshipbetweenvariablesyethasnotbeenestablished(Bockstael,1996).Soitispara… 相似文献
19.
Based on energy balance equation and mass transfer equation, a general model to estimate actual evaporation from non-saturated
surfaces was derived. Making use of two concepts, “relative evaporation” and “relative drying power”, a relationship was established
to account for the departure from saturated conditions. Using this model, the actual evaporation (evapotranspiration) can
be calculated without the need of potential evaporation estimation. Furthermore, the model requires only a few meteorological
parameters that are readily and routinely obtainable at standard weather stations. Based on nearly 30 years data of 432 meteorological
stations and 512 hydrological stations in China, in combined with GIS, nine typical river basins were selected. Using the
data of the selected river basins, the model was tested. The results show that the actual evaporation rate can be estimated
with an error of less than 10% in most areas of China, except few years in the Yellow River Basin. 相似文献
20.
The investigations on the organic carbon （OC） of core sediments were carried out in Chongming east tidal fiat （CM） during Scirpus mariqueter growing stage （from April to December 2004） in Yangtze Estuary. The Yangtze River annually transports a runoff discharge of 30,000 m^3/s, carrying about 480 million tons of sediments to the estuarine and coastal area, which formed a great OC pool. In the sampling spots, seven quadrats of 50 cm × 50 cm and five sediments cores of 20 cm deep （40 cm deep in December） were randomly established in order to collect vegetations and core sediments samples during the low tide each month except November. After pretreatment, the core sediments were sieved and their OC contents were measured according to the potassium dichromate method. The results show that the higher surface sediment OC content in summer comes from allochthonous terrigenous particle settlements on the Chongming east middle tidal fiat S. mariqueter zone. In autumn and winter, the decomposing of the defoliated S. mariqueter increases the surface sediments OC content. Settling velocity, sediment temperature and S. mariqueter growth are the main factors that can control the sediment carbon content. Summer is the “carbon losing” period of the tidal fiat sediments, while from September, it changes into the “carbon accumulating” period of sediment OC pool because of the decomposing of dead S. mariqueter community in the sediments. From this alternation of “carbon losing” period and “carbon accumulating” period, we conclude that carbon in the OC pool of the middle tidal fiat S. mariqueter zone sediments mainly comes from the atmospheric carbon rooted by S. mariqueter photosynthesis. 相似文献