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区域和沟谷相结合的泥石流预报及其应用 总被引：10，自引：1，他引：10
在分析泥石流预报现状和泥石流减灾决策对泥石流预报的要求的基础上,提出了建立区域和单沟相结合的泥石流预报的问题。以泥石流发育的基础数据库、降水的动态预报与监测和泥石流预报模型为基础,以GIS技术为工具,建立泥石流预报平台。泥石流预报模型采用基于模糊数学的泥石流预报模型,预报结果应用概率分级进行表述,以适应泥石流预报准确率低的不足,并最大程度地克服了过分依赖临界降水量进行泥石流预报的不足。将该泥石流预报方法应用到北京山区泥石流预报中,建立了北京山区泥石流预报系统。 相似文献
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《山地学报》2019,(6)
在泥石流灾害预报模型研究中,科学确定泥石流灾害影响因子及保证模型较高的预报准确率和快速的训练速度是关键问题,也是泥石流灾害预报预警和防灾减灾的重要基础。本研究针对目前泥石流预报模型输入数据维度较大和训练时间较长的问题,采用快速多个主成分并行提取算法(Fast multiple principle components extraction algorithm,FMPCE),选取出6个泥石流灾害影响因子,包括降雨量、山坡坡度、沟床比降、相对高差、土壤含水率和孔隙水压力。基于宽度学习(Broad learning,BL)算法,以泥石流影响因子为输入,泥石流发生概率为输出,构建了泥石流预报模型,并用矩阵随机近似奇异值分解(矩阵随机近似SVD)对模型进行了优化,将优化后宽度学习模型的预报结果与梯度下降法优化的BP神经网络预报模型(GD-BP)、基于支持向量机的预报模型(SVM)、宽度学习预报模型(BL)的结果进行对比,同时,通过输入数据集的扩展,从训练时间上对不同模型进行比较。结果表明,优化宽度学习泥石流灾害预报模型的预报准确率为93.52%,较GD-BP模型、SVM模型和BL模型的预报准确率分别高出1.60%、1.15%和0.03%;优化宽度学习泥石流灾害预报模型的训练时间为0.9039s,较GD-BP模型、SVM模型和BL模型的训练时间分别节省了25.3867 s、17.2620 s和0.8974 s。本研究说明宽度学习算法可以用于对泥石流灾害的发生概率进行预报,同时也可为泥石流预报的实际应用提供新的思路。 相似文献
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汶川地震灾区泥石流的诱发降雨阈值 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
《山地学报》2015,(5)
系统收集和整理、分析了汶川地震灾区2008—2011年的160次泥石流事件和其对应的降雨过程,发现不同降雨因子对泥石流的发生所起的作用有所差异,超过77%的泥石流都是由暴雨激发,说明直接降雨因子,如当次降雨量和峰值雨强是诱发泥石流的最关键因子。通过各种降雨阈值方法的结果比较,发现不同区域各种降雨参数对泥石流发生的影响程度不同,因此用于泥石流预报的降雨指标不同,应采用的预报模型和临界阈值也不同。对于崇州市,可选用峰值雨强作为预报指标;汶川县可选用当次降雨量作为预报指标,对于其他地区,适宜用多因子模型(I-R和I-D)进行预报;相比较而言,绵竹、都江堰等地区的泥石流受前期降雨的作用影响较为明显,因此最适宜用峰值降雨强度和有效前期降雨关系(I-RT模型)进行预报。个别地区的阈值年度变化显示地震灾区泥石流的降雨阈值呈回升趋势,但远远未恢复至地震之前的水平。研究可为地震灾区的泥石流预警预报研究做出贡献。 相似文献
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通过对η坐标数值预报模式预报的降水量检验分析，发现η坐标数值预报模式对青藏高原天气系统活动造成的四川盆地降水预报明显偏弱，且雨区偏北、偏西。我们使用风场资料对高原天气系统作自动识别，进行了对高原天气系统影响降水的强化与雨区漂移的处理，研究得出了η坐标数值预报模式释用强降水预报方法。通过对1991-2001年四川盆地发生泥石流、滑坡灾害的气象成因(强降水)分析，研究得出了四川盆地不同的地质地貌条件下泥石流、滑坡预测雨量标准。在上述研究基础上，建立了四川盆地泥石流、滑坡产生的强降水预报方法。经2003-08-09业务试运行，效果较好，较成功的预报了四川盆地西部、西南部3次大暴雨过程触发的多处泥石流、滑坡灾害，在防灾减灾中发挥了好的作用。 相似文献
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泥石流等级是描述一次泥石流规模大小的定量指标,泥石流灾度是描述一次泥石流造成社会损失大小的定量指标。这两个指标概念明确,简单易行,有利于使描述泥石流规模大小和灾情程度的术语逐步规范化、定量化和普及化。 相似文献
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《The Professional geographer》1988,40(4):471-499
Books reviewed in this article: USA, Eine Geographische Landeskunde , Vol. I, Der Grossraum in Strukturellem, Wandel, 3rd Ed. Helmut Blume . Introduction to Remote Sensing . James B. Campbell . The Sounds of People and Places: Readings in the Geography of American Folk and Popular Music . George O. Carney , ED. Development and Underdevelopment . John Cole . Mobility and Employment in Urban Southeast Asia: Example from Indonesia and the Philippines . Michael A. Costello , Thomas R. Leinbach , AND Richard Ulack . Soviet Asia: Economic Development and National Policy Choices . Leslie Dienes . The Third World City . David Drakakis -Smith . Scholars' Guide to Washington, DC for Cartography and Remote Sensing Imagery (maps, charts, aerial photographs, satellite images, cartographic literature and geographic information systems). Ralph E. Ehrenberg . Population and Development in the Third World . Allan AND Anne Findlay . The Early Mapping of Hawaii . Gary L. Fitzpatrick . Energetics of Physical Environment: Energetic Approaches to Physical Geography . K. J. Gregory , ED. Wildland Recreation: Ecology and Management . William E. Hammitt and David N. Cole . Agricultural Commercialization and Government Policy in Africa . J. Hinderink AND J. J. Sterkenburg . The Dynamics of American Housing . James W. Hughes AND George Sternlieb . Thailand: Buddhist Kingdom as Modern Nation State . Charles F. Keyes . Resolving Locational Conflict . Robert W. Lake , ED. Lands at Risk in the Third World: Local-level Perspectives . Peter D. Little and Michael M. Horowitz , EDS. Nathaniel Southgate Shaler and the Culture of American Science . David N. Livingstone . Regions: The Economics and Politics of Territory . Ann R. Markusen . Wetlands . William J. Mitsch and James G. Gosselink . Historical Geography: Progress and Prospect . Michael Pacione , ED. Loess and Periglacial Phenomena . Marton P$eacsi and Hugh M. French , EDS. Regional Management of Metropolitan Floodplains, Experience in the United States and Abroad . Rutherford H. Platt , ED. Human Cartography: Mapping the World of Man . Janos Szegö . Atlas of Great Lakes Indian History . Helen H. Tanner , ED. The Botany of Mangroves . P. B. Tomlinson . Urban Spatial Traffic Patterns . Rodney Vaughan . The Night After … Climatic and Biological Consequences of a Nuclear War . Yevgeni Velikhov , ED. Industrial Geography . H. D. Watts . Dictionary of Quotations in Geography . James O. Wheeler and Francis M. Sibley . Vermont Townscape . Norman Wiliams , Jr. , Edmund K. Kellogg and Peter M. Lavigne . 相似文献
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P. Guilizzoni A. Marchetto A. Lami N. G. Cameron P. G. Appleby N. L. Rose Ø. A. Schnell C. A. Belis A. Giorgis L. Guzzi 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1996,15(3):245-264
A palaeoecological study of an oligotrophic alpine lake, Paione Superiore (Italy), provided a record of historical changes in water quality. Historical trends in lake acidification were reconstructed by means of calibration and regression equations from diatoms, chrysophycean scales and pigment ratios. The historical pH was inferred by using two different diatom calibration data sets, one specific to the alpine region. These pH trends, together with the record of sedimentary carbonaceous particles and chironomid remains, indicate a recent acidification of this low alkalinity lake.Concentration of total organic matter, organic carbon, nitrogen, biogenic silica (BSiO2), chlorophyll derivatives (CD), fucoxanthin, diatom cell concentration and number of chironomid head capsules increased during the last 2–3 decades. When expressed as accumulation rates, most of these parameters tended to decrease from the past century to c. 1950, then all except P increased to the present day. A marked increase in sedimentary nitrogen may be related to atmospheric pollution and to the general increases in output of N in Europe. High C/N ratios indicate a prevailing allochthonous source of organic matter.Finally, the increase in measured air temperature from the mid-1800's appeared to be related to lake water pH before industrialization: cold periods generally led to lower pH and vice-versa. The more recent phenomenon of anthropogenic acidification has apparently decoupled this climatic-water chemistry relationship. 相似文献
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K. F. Walker I. G. Dunn D. Edwards T. Petr H. Z. Yang 《International Journal of Salt Lake Research》1995,4(3):169-222
Quinghai Hu is a large, high-altitude, saline lake in north-western China, and supports a fishery based on an endemic species of naked carp (snow trout). The fish take seven years to attain maturity and a marketable weight of 300 g, and have a lifespan of 14–21 years under the present fishery regime. They seasonally migrate from the lake to spawn over the gravel beds of inflowing rivers, but these areas have been reduced by weirs and irrigation diversions and recruitment may have declined. The population may have been affected also by a 1.85-m fall in the lake level over the past 30 years, and by associated changes in salinity. The fishery was opened to large-scale exploitation in 1958. Yields declined sharply (max. 28,523 tonnes, 1960) as the larger, older fish were removed, and then more slowly (min. 2523 tonnes, 1983). Since 1987 the fish factory has been limited to an annual quota of 1200 tonnes, taken by a fleet of four pair trawlers. Another 800 tonnes are taken by licensed fishermen, mainly using gill nets, and perhaps 1000 tonnes are taken illegally. The estimated total catch in 1992 was 3000 tonnes. New trawlers introduced in 1989–90 substantially increased the factory's catch per unit effort, and in 1990 the quota was virtually filled in one month in a zone within 20 km of the factory. Although this could suggest that the stocks will be conserved if the quota is retained, at least half of the catch in 1989–92 consisted of immature individuals. Trawling operations recently were suspended following a further decline in the catch after 1992. While the new trawlers are capable of a major increase in effort, neither the changing environment, the fish stocks or the present markets favour intensified pressure. Gillnets may provide better control over the minimum size limit and may cause less damage than trawling. Other options to improve the viability and profitability of the fishery include improvements in handling, processing and marketing. Failure to develop the fishery may encourage attempts to introduce exotic fish, at some risk to survival of the local species. 相似文献
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Chironomidae (Diptera) remains in surficial lake sediments from the Canadian Cordillera: analysis of the fauna across an altitudinal gradient 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
The altitudinal distribution of Chironomidae (Diptera) in the southern Canadian Cordillera was analyzed by means of head capsules preserved in surficial sediments of 30 lakes. Taxa characteristic of late-glacial deposits of southern, coastal British Columbia are extant at high elevations, particularly in the Rocky Mountains, and in large, deep, low-elevation lakes. Many chironomid taxa common at low elevations in the southern Canadian Cordillera were not found in alpine and upper subalpine lakes. These faunal differences are probably climatically related. The differences in fauna between high and low-elevation lakes parallel differences between arctic and temperate lakes. 相似文献
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MATT K. MATSUDA 《Geographical review》2007,97(2):230-243
ABSTRACT. Narratives concerning Pacific Ocean territories are often historically derived from European and American mainland visions of great, empty oceans dotted with deserted and uninhabited islands. However, research by indigenous and outlander scholars, along with struggles for political and cultural autonomy in the Pacific, has brought attention to vital island communities and 6has raised questions about a Pacific‐island way of understanding the world. This understanding is traced through scholarly and artistic engagements with history, island‐community studies, and navigational philosophies and is framed by a growing theoretical literature on epistemologies of place from the disciplines of geography and oceanography. 相似文献
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Precipitation is an important component of global water and energy transport and a major aspect of climate change. Due to the scarcity of meteorological observations, the precipitation climate over Tibet has been insufficiently documented. In this study, the distribution of precipitation during the rainy season over Tibet from 1980 to 2013 is described on monthly to annual time scales with meteorological observations. Furthermore, four precipitation products are compared to observations over Tibet. These datasets include products derived from the Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data(APHRO), the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre(GPCC), the University of Delaware(UDel), and the China Meteorological Administration(CMA). The error, relative error, standard deviation, root-mean-square error, correlations and trends between these products for the same period are analyzed with in situ precipitation during the rainy season from May to September. The results indicate that these datasets can broadly capture the temporal and spatial precipitation distribution over Tibet. The precipitation gradually increases from northwest to southeast. The spatial precipitation in GPCC and CMA are similar and positively correlated to observations. Areas with the largest deviations are located in southwestern Tibet along the Himalayas. The APHRO product underestimates, while the UDel, GPCC, and CMA datasets overestimates precipitation on the basis of monthly and inter-annual variation. The biases in GPCC and CMA are smaller than those in APHRO and UDel with a mean relative error lower than 10% during the same periods. The linear trend of precipitation indicates that the increase in precipitation has accelerated extensively during the last 30 years in most regions of Tibet. The CMA generally achieves the best performance of these four precipitation products. Data uncertainty in Tibet might be caused by the low density of stations, complex topography between the grid points and stations, and the interpolation methods, which can also produce an obvious difference between the gridded data and observations. 相似文献
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Jean-Claude Plaziat 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1993,8(2):163-169
Potamids generally live in estuaries, lagoons, and along protected sea shores. However, their ability to colonize intracontinental lakes has been underestimated due to non- or misidentifications. Potamides conicus, the only present lacustrine Potamid currently found in North Africa, belongs to a lagoon-type (thalassoid) malacofauna, dominated by the Cardium Cerastoderma glaucum: this fauna occurs in association with Foraminifera (especially Ammonia beccarii) and Ostracoda (Cyprideis gr. Torosa). Potamids have been found 250 to 900 km from the nearest sea shore: passive dispersal (probably through birds) is the primary dispersal mechanism. Shell morphology and ornamentation can be used to characterize life environment (lacustrine versus marine) but not distance from sea shore. The presence of Potamid-Foraminifera fauna in the fossil record has been interpreted as providing evidence for a sea connection (e.g., gulfs, lagoons). However, more recent paleoecological studies have demonstrated that such assemblages span an ecological gradient from freshwater to hypersaline lacustrine environments. Thus, the occurrence of modern Potamids in lacustrine (in addition to maritime) environments has important implications for Quaternary and Tertiary paleogeographic investigations. Lacustrine Potamids have been recorded from the European Tertiary (France, Spain) and from the Sahara Holocene. More research is required for the better understanding of the distribution and ecology of Potamids in modern and fossil lakes of other continents.This publication is the fifth of a series of papers presented at the Conference on Sedimentary and Paleolimnological Records of Saline Lakes. This Conference was held August 13–16, 1991 at the University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada. Dr Evans is serving as Guest Editor. 相似文献