共查询到17条相似文献，搜索用时 109 毫秒
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应急疏散存在复杂性与多变性,传统的模拟方法难以真实刻画应急疏散的复杂动态过程。作为应急疏散领域的新兴研究方向之一,基于多智能体（Multi-Agent）的建模方法通过微观个体的相互作用而产生宏观全局的格局,适合研究应急疏散等复杂问题。本文在复杂适应系统理论的启示下,将多智能体思想引入到人群疏散模拟领域中,将地理信息系统（Geographic Information System,简称GIS）与多智能体技术结合,从空间个体行为的微观角度入手,对疏散动态模拟进行了研究,构建了基于GIS与Multi-Agent技术的疏散仿真模型,呈现了灾害情境下人群的动态疏散过程,实现了GIS空间信息数据的动态表达,对应急预案的制定、救灾设施的建设与管理以及应急疏散工作的开展等具有重大意义。 相似文献
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《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2021,(10)
重大突发灾害事故时有发生,给人民的生命财产安全带来了严重的威胁。应急疏散作为灾后应急响应的重要环节,对减少人员伤亡有着重要意义。经过长期发展,研究人员利用多种方式观察到了许多具有重要价值的疏散规律,也提出了多个优秀的模型方法。然而,应急疏散涉及到的灾害事故类型、受灾人群和应急场景等多样复杂,导致应急疏散模型的侧重点和方法论等各有不同,加大了读者对应急疏散研究现状的全局理解难度。从应急疏散行为分析、模拟仿真、策略优化、预案实施等多个角度对现有重大突发灾害事故下的应急疏散研究现状进行梳理、归纳与总结,旨在厘清一条清晰的应急疏散研究脉络。在此基础之上,进一步提炼出当前面临的主要难题与解决思路,服务于应急疏散的下一步发展。 相似文献
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研究了基于多智能体与GIS集成的体育场所人群疏散模拟的方法,推演、提出了模拟模型的总体框架与数学表达式,讨论了移动人群智能体移动决策的表达与实现技术,设计并开发了模拟原型系统。以上海体育场主体育中心为案例实现了对观众离场的全过程模拟,为应急情况下的决策处理提供了一个有用的可参考范例。 相似文献
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应急疏散是应对突发事故的一项重要工作,已有的研究从宏观或微观的角度进行分析建模,但没有考虑到疏散方案的问题。在描述了应急疏散方案问题的基础上,建立了应急疏散方案问题的数学模型,设计了一种遗传算法应用于生成疏散方案。通过仿真实验,较快地得出了问题的近似最优解,证实了将遗传算法运用于应急疏散方案问题的有效性。 相似文献
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基于路网应急疏散问题的实际需求,提出以路径流量为决策变量,以疏散流量最大、疏散路线最短和可靠性最高为目标的多目标优化模型,综合考虑了应急疏散的时效性、经济性和安全性,并设计自适应小生境Pareto遗传算法对模型进行求解。以某地区实际路网为例进行模拟分析,验证了算法的有效性和可行性。 相似文献
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Emergency services personnel face risks and uncertainty as they respond to natural and anthropogenic events. Their primary goal is to minimize the loss of life and property, especially in neighborhoods with high population densities, where response time is of great importance. In recent years, mobile phones have become a primary communication device during emergencies. The portability of cell phones and ease of information storage and dissemination has enabled effective implementation of cell phones by first responders and one of the most viable means of communication with the population. Using cellular location data during evacuation planning and response also provides increased awareness to emergency personnel. This article introduces a multi‐objective, multi‐criteria approach to determining optimum evacuation routes in an urban setting. The first objective is to calculate evacuation routes for individual cell phone locations, minimizing the time it would take for a sample population to evacuate to designated safe zones based on both distance and congestion criteria. The second objective is to maximize coverage of individual cell phone locations, using the criteria of underlying geographic features, distance and congestion. In summary, this article presents a network‐based methodology for providing additional analytic support to emergency services personnel for evacuation planning. 相似文献
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Synchronous geocollaboration helps geographically dispersed people to work together in a shared geospatial environment. Its real‐time nature, multiple users' interaction and diversity of work context impose some special social, organizational and technological requirements, making the development of such real‐time geocollaboration systems a challenging task. A conceptual framework is therefore needed to specify and describe what synchronous geocollaboration is, considering its social, spatial and technical aspects. The geo‐social model presented in this article describes a conceptual framework for synchronous geocollaboration systems addressing the above aspects, identifies the core elements of the system and describes how these elements collaborate with each other. This model is presented using application‐level ontology and is then applied to a multi‐agent system based prototype in which multiple users can interact and negotiate in a shared 3D geospatial environment. 相似文献
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为使人员疏散离散模型更好描述行人微观特性,提出一种改进元胞自动机的人员疏散模型。在传统模型基础上,将空间划分为更细小网格,令单个行人占据多个网格以便展现行人间微观行为。引入社会力模型中自身驱动力、排斥力、摩擦力的运算规则改进模型,以模拟行人间碰撞现象。通过建立行人出口选择机制并改进移动规则,真实模拟行人动态出口选择过程。疏散过程中考虑了速度因素,能更加具体展现行人不同的移动方式。模拟结果显示,改进的模型能够真实地反映人员疏散的具体过程。 相似文献
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Local land‐use and ‐cover changes (LUCCs) are the result of both the decisions and actions of individual land‐users, and the larger global and regional economic, political, cultural, and environmental contexts in which land‐use systems are embedded. However, the dearth of detailed empirical data and knowledge of the influences of global/regional forces on local land‐use decisions is a substantial challenge to formulating multi‐scale agent‐based models (ABMs) of land change. Pattern‐oriented modeling (POM) is a means to cope with such process and parameter uncertainty, and to design process‐based land change models despite a lack of detailed process knowledge or empirical data. POM was applied to a simplified agent‐based model of LUCC to design and test model relationships linking global market influence to agents’ land‐use decisions within an example test site. Results demonstrated that evaluating alternative model parameterizations based on their ability to simultaneously reproduce target patterns led to more realistic land‐use outcomes. This framework is promising as an agent‐based virtual laboratory to test hypotheses of how and under what conditions driving forces of land change differ from a generalized model representation depending on the particular land‐use system and location. 相似文献
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This paper examines the use of multi‐agent simulations (MAS) to model the petrol market. The development of a purely agent based model for petrol prices is presented. Failings within this model are discussed and an alternative strategy for controlling the price of each petrol station based on population of customers is considered. Individual level modelling of customers is too computationally intensive; therefore a spatial interaction model was used to estimate the sales and linked to the agent system to create a hybrid model. To evaluate how effective this hybrid model was, a comparison was made with an existing data set of real petrol prices collected over a two month period. This was achieved both statistically and visually with the use of a Geographical Information System (GIS). Experimentation revealed that the hybrid model outperformed the agent model. Investigation into the behaviour and sensitivity of the system (for example, how prices diffuse spatially) was undertaken by means of idealised simulations. 相似文献
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CEMPS is a prototype spatial decision support system which links the topographical support and analysis provided by a geographic information system, ARC/INFO, with the ability to simulate the dynamics of an evacuation process. CEMPS has been designed to enable emergency planners to experiment with different emergency evacuation plans in order to devise a plan which meets their requirements. ARC/INFO is used to parameterize a dynamic simulation with topographical information and to display its results. The prototype runs on a Sun SPARCStation cluster but could be modified to run on other hardware and software. 相似文献
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The use of cellular automata (CA) has for some time been considered among the most appropriate approaches for modeling land‐use changes. Each cell in a traditional CA model has a state that evolves according to transition rules, taking into consideration its own and its neighbors’ states and characteristics. Here, we present a multi‐label CA model in which a cell may simultaneously have more than one state. The model uses a multi‐label learning method—a multi‐label support vector machine, Rank‐SVM—to define the transition rules. The model was used with a multi‐label land‐use dataset for Luxembourg, built from vector‐based land‐use data using a method presented here. The proposed multi‐label CA model showed promising performance in terms of its ability to capture and model the details and complexities of changes in land‐use patterns. Applied to historical land use data, the proposed model estimated the land use change with an accuracy of 87.2% exact matching and 98.84% when including cells with a misclassification of a single label, which is comparably better than a classical multi‐class model that achieved 83.6%. The multi‐label cellular automata outperformed a model combining CA and artificial neural networks. All model goodness‐of‐fit comparisons were quantified using various performance metrics for predictive models. 相似文献