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1.
Calibration of cellular automata models using differential evolution to simulate present and future land use 
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下载免费PDF全文 A key issue in cellular automata (CA) modeling is the minimization of the differences between the actual and simulated patterns, which can be mathematically formulated as an objective function. We develop a new hybrid model (termed DE‐CA) by integrating differential evolution (DE) into CA to solve the objective function and retrieve the optimal CA parameters. Constrained relations among factors were applied in DE to generate different sets of CA parameters for prediction of future scenarios. The DE‐CA model was calibrated using historical spatial data to simulate 2016 land use in Kunming and predict multiple scenarios to the year 2026. Assessment of quantitative accuracy shows that DE‐CA yields 92.4% overall accuracy, where 6.8% is the correctly captured urban growth; further, the model reported only 5.0% false alarms and 2.6% misses. Regarding the simulation ability, our new CA model performs as well as the widely applied genetic algorithm‐based CA model, and outperforms both the logistic regression‐based CA model and a no‐change NULL model. We projected three possible scenarios for the year 2026 using DE‐CA to adequately address the baseline urban growth, environmental protection and urban planning to show the strong prediction ability of the new model. 相似文献
2.
Although traditional cellular automata (CA)‐based models can effectively simulate urban land‐use changes, they typically ignore the spatial evolution of urban patches, due to their use of cell‐based simulation strategies. This research proposes a new patch‐based CA model to incorporate a spatial constraint based on the growth patterns of urban patches into the conventional CA model for reducing the uncertainty of the distribution of simulated new urban patches. In this model, the growth pattern of urban patches is first estimated using a developed indicator that is based on the local variations in existing urban patches. The urban growth is then simulated by integrating the estimated growth pattern and land suitability using a pattern‐calibrated method. In this method, the pattern of new urban patches is gradually calibrated toward the dominant growth pattern through the steps of the CA model. The proposed model is applied to simulate urban growth in the Tehran megalopolitan area during 2000–2006–2012. The results from this model were compared with two common models: cell‐based CA and logistic‐patch CA. The proposed model yields a degree of patch‐level agreement that is 23.4 and 7.5% higher than those of these pre‐existing models, respectively. This reveals that the patch‐based CA model simulates actual development patterns much better than the two other models. 相似文献
3.
Hossein Shafizadeh-Moghadam Ali Asghari Mohammad Taleai Marco Helbich Amin Tayyebi 《地理信息系统科学与遥感》2017,54(5):639-656
This study evaluates the effects of cellular automata (CA) with different neighborhood sizes on the predictive performance of the Land Transformation Model (LTM). Landsat images were used to extract urban footprints and the driving forces behind urban growth seen for the metropolitan areas of Tehran and Isfahan in Iran. LTM, which uses a back-propagation neural network, was applied to investigate the relationships between urban growth and the associated drivers, and to create the transition probability map. To simulate urban growth, the following two approaches were implemented: (a) the LTM using a top-down approach for cell allocation grounding on the highest values in the transition probability map and (b) a CA with varying spatial neighborhood sizes. The results show that using the LTM-CA approach increases the accuracy of the simulated land use maps when compared with the use of the LTM top-down approach. In particular, the LTM-CA with a 7 × 7 neighborhood size performed well and improved the accuracy. The level of agreement between simulated and actual urban growth increased from 58% to 61% for Tehran and from 39% to 43% for Isfahan. In conclusion, even though the LTM-CA outperforms the LTM with a top-down approach, more studies have to be carried out within other geographical settings to better evaluate the effect of CA on the allocation phase of the urban growth simulation. 相似文献
4.
Land use is changing at accelerated rates in Taiwan, and illegal land use change practices (ILP) are regularly observed within conservation areas. For this reason, we map high-potential areas of ILP within the Soil and water conservation zone (SWCZ) as an aid for effective land management and conducted an exploratory analysis of explanatory variables to evaluate their variability within ILP hot spots. We used variables relevant to hot spots to develop a logistic regression model and identified seven statistically significant variables. We re-applied the logistic regression approach to produce spatially explicit predictions of ILP. High probability areas are distributed along the coastal regions, covering 26% of the SWCZ, and their major drivers are related to accessibility and topography. The results from this research provide relevant information on the major drivers of ILP and high-potential areas, which can support officials in monitoring efforts for better planning and governance within the SWCZ. 相似文献
5.
Multiple intra-urban land use simulations and driving factors analysis: a case study in Huicheng,China 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Simulations of intra-urban land use changes have gradually attracted more attention as these approaches are extremely helpful in regard to decision making and policy formulation. While prior studies mostly focused on methods of developing intra-urban level simulations, very little research has been conducted explain the factors driving intra-urban land use change. Urban planners are highly concerned with how inner-city structures are formed and how they function. Here, to simulate multiple intra-urban land use changes and to identify the contribution of different driving factors, we developed a random forests (RF) algorithm-based cellular automata (CA) simulation model. In this study, the model applied diverse categories of spatial variables, including traffic location factors, environmental factors, public services, and population density, as the driving factors to enhance our understanding of the dynamics of internal urban land use. The CA model was tested using data from the Huicheng district of Huizhou city in the Guangdong province of China. The Model was validated using actual historical land use data from 2000 to 2010. By applying the validated model, multiple intra-urban land use maps were simulated for 2015. Simultaneously, spatial variable importance measures (VIMs) were calculated by using the out-of-bag (OOB) error estimation approach of the RF algorithm. Based on the calculation results, we assessed and analysed the significance of each intra-urban land use driver for this region. This study provides urban planners and relevant scholars with detailed and targeted information that can aid in the formulation of specific planning strategies for different intra-urban land uses and support the future evolution of this area. 相似文献
6.
Forest canopy cover (CC) and above-ground biomass (AGB) are important ecological indicators for forest monitoring and geoscience applications. This study aimed to estimate temperate forest CC and AGB by integrating airborne LiDAR data with wall-to-wall space-borne SPOT-6 data through geostatistical modeling. Our study involved the following approach: (1) reference maps of CC and AGB were derived from wall-to-wall LiDAR data and calibrated by field measurements; (2) twelve discrete LiDAR flights were simulated by assuming that LiDAR data were only available beneath these flights; (3) training/testing samples of CC and AGB were extracted from the reference maps inside and outside the simulated flights using stratified random sampling; (4) The simple linear regression, ordinary kriging and regression kriging model were used to extend the sparsely sampled CC/AGB data to the entire study area by incorporating a selection of SPOT-6 variables, including vegetation indices and texture variables. The regression kriging model was superior at estimating and mapping the spatial distribution of CC and AGB, as it featured the lowest mean absolute error (MAE; 11.295% and 18.929 t/ha for CC and AGB, respectively) and root mean squared error (RMSE; 17.361% and 21.351 t/ha for CC and AGB, respectively). The predicted and reference values of both CC and AGB were highly correlated for the entire study area based on the estimation histograms and error maps. Finally, we concluded that the regression kriging model was superior and more effective at estimating LiDAR-derived CC and AGB values using the spatially-reduced samples and the SPOT-6 variables. The presented modeling workflow will greatly facilitate future forest growth monitoring and carbon stock assessments for large areas of temperate forest in northeast China. It also provides guidance on how to take full advantage of future sparsely collected LiDAR data in cases where wall-to-wall LiDAR coverage is not available from the perspective of geostatistics. 相似文献
7.
基于CLUE-S模型的南京市土地利用变化模拟 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
本文以南京市为研究区,以南京市1986年的土地利用现状图为基础,分析研究区概况并根据数据的可获取性,选取13类土地利用变化驱动因素,利用逻辑斯蒂回归分析求解土地利用变化驱动因素作用系数矩阵。在此基础上运行CLUE-S模型,对南京市1996年的土地利用空间格局进行模拟。将模拟结果与南京市1996年土地利用现状图与进行对比,结果较为理想,模拟正确率达88.57%,KAPPA指数0.86。这说明CLUE-S模型具有成功模拟区域土地利用时空动态变化的能力,对土地利用预测、规划具有重要的指导作用。 相似文献
8.
Ademola K. Braimoh Takashi Onishi 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2007,9(4):438-446
Land use modeling requires large amounts of data that are typically spatially correlated. This study applies two geostatistical techniques to account for spatial correlation in residential land use change modeling. In the first approach, we combined generalized linear model (GLM) with indicator kriging to estimate the posterior probability of residential development. In the second approach, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) was used to simultaneously model spatial correlation and regression fixed effects. Spatial agreement between actual and modeled land use change was higher for the GLM incorporating indicator kriging. The GLMM produced more reliable estimates and could be more useful in analyzing the effects of driving factors of land use change for land use planning. 相似文献
9.
Stream flow forecast and its inundation simulations prior to the event are an effective and non-structural method of flood damage mitigation. In this paper, a continuous simulation hydrological and hydrodynamic model was developed for stream flow forecast and for spatial inundation simulation in Brahmani–Baitarani river basin, India. The hydrologic modelling approach includes rainfall-run-off modelling, flow routing, calibration and validation of the model with the field discharge data. CARTOSAT Digital Elevation Model of 30 m resolution, land use/land cover derived from the Indian Remote Sensing Satellite (IRS-P6) AWiFS and soil textural data of the study area were used in the modelling to compute topographic and hydraulic parameters. The hydrological model was calibrated with the help of field observed discharge data of 2006 and 2009 and validated with the data of 2008 and 2011. From the results, it is found that computed discharges are very well matching well with the observed discharges. The developed model can provide the stream flow forecast with more than 30 h lead time. Possible flood inundations were simulated using hydrodynamic modelling approach. CARTO Digital Elevation Model of 10 m resolution, landuse and the computed flood hydrographs were used in inundation simulations. 相似文献
10.
利用元胞自动机(Cellular Automata,CA)模拟土地利用变化,已经成为认识和理解其复杂动态演化过程的有效手段.传统的元胞自动机基于线性转换规则,较难表达土地利用变化的非线性边界问题.本文研究利用最小二乘支持向量机方法(LS-SVM),将原空间下的非线性可分问题,通过高斯径向基核函数映射到高维特征空间,简化... 相似文献
11.
Residential location choice modeling is one of the substantial components of land use and transportation models. While numerous aggregated mathematical and statistical approaches have been developed to model the residence choice behavior of households, disaggregated approaches such as the agent‐based modeling have shown interesting capabilities. In this article, a novel agent‐based approach is developed to simulate the residential location choice of tenants in Tehran, the capital of Iran. Tenants are considered as agents who select their desired residential alternatives according to their characteristics and preferences for various criteria such as the rent, accessibility to different services and facilities, environmental pollution, and distance from their workplace and former residence. The choice set of agents is limited to their desired residential alternatives by applying a constrained NSGA‐II algorithm. Then, agents compete with each other to select their final residence among their alternatives. Results of the proposed approach are validated by comparing simulated and actual residences of a sample of tenants. Results show that the proposed approach is able to accurately simulate the residence of 59.3% of tenants at the traffic analysis zone level. 相似文献
12.
13.
Urban growth pattern modeling using logistic regression 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Transformation of land use/land cover change occurs due to the numbers and activities of people.Urban growth mod-eling has attracted substantial attention because it helps to comprehend the mechanisms of land use change and thus helps relevant policies made.This paper tends to apply logistic regression to model urban growth in the Jiayu county of Hubei province,China.It is applied in a GIS environment to calculate variables and,then,in SPSS to discover the relationships between urban growth and the driving forces.The relative operating characteristic(ROC) shows the modeling accuracy with the curve 0.891 with standard er-ror 0.001.A probability map is generated finally to predict where urban growth will occur as a result of the computation.The result shows the model simulates urban growth well in the county scale. 相似文献
14.
D. Chanlikit 《The Photogrammetric Record》1995,15(85):51-55
The AP190 analytical stereoplotter has been employed for two research projects concerned with the urban and suburban environment. In the first project, the suitability of the AP190 was assessed for comparing height readings between stereomodels of colour diapositives and colour paper prints, for collecting height data for a digital terrain model and for producing a land use map using a stereopair of part of Edinburgh under well controlled conditions. The second project dealt with the densification of minor control points by means of the BLOKK aerial triangulation package, followed by the digital mapping of a suburban area planned for land readjustment in Bangkok. 相似文献
15.
城市空间结构及其扩展的模拟是城市科学管理与规划的重要前提,本文基于极限学习机提出了顾及不同非城市用地转化为城市用地差异与强度的城市扩展元胞自动机模型（ELM-CA）。模型验证表明：①ELM-CA模型的模拟精度达到70.30%,相比于逻辑回归和神经网络分别提高了2.21%和1.54%,FoM系数分别提高了0.025 9和0.017 9,Kappa系数分别提高了0.024 7和0.016 9,且Moran I指数接近于实际值,说明极限学习机模型较逻辑回归和神经网络能更有效模拟城市扩展的空间形态及其变化;②ELM模型的训练时间仅为神经网络的1/3左右,体现了ELM学习速度的优势;③在小样本情况下,逻辑回归和神经网络都受到明显的影响,而极限学习机还能保持良好的性能,这个特点使其在样本难以获取的情况下具有明显的优势。两个时相的城市扩展模拟与真实数据的比较表明：基于极限学习机的城市扩展元胞自动机模型（ELM-CA）,简化了CA模型的复杂度,并在小样本情况下能有效提高模拟精度,适合于复杂土地利用条件下城市扩展模拟与预测。 相似文献
16.
广州市土地利用与NDVI变化的关联分析 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
利用6S模型对1990年、1995年、2000年及2005年的TM影像进行大气较正,获取4期NDVI和土地利用信息,选择3种土地利用指标与NDVI变化进行相关性分析。结果表明:广州市NDVI平均值具有在1990年~2000年间下降,2000年后略为上升的趋势,NDVI的空间变化趋势与城市发展格局相一致;土地利用程度较高,变化率较大,城市用地扩展强度近期明显增强;将土地利用指标与NDVI进行耦合分析,得到土地利用程度综合指数和NDVI变化的定量关系模型,修正判定系数达0.88以上,较好地反映了两者的关系,且土地利用程度变化率对NDVI的影响程度大于城市用地扩展程度对NDVI变化的影响程度。 相似文献
17.
元胞自动机具有能模拟复杂动态系统的强大能力,本文采用了多约束条件的元胞自动机模型,以广东佛山市2000年、2006年和2012年建设用地的变化为例,从自然、社会经济发展等方面综合考虑选取了高程、坡度、人口密度、道路交通、水系等对城市建设用地发展变化起决定作用的诸多因子,利用马尔科夫概率矩阵计算2000年～2006年建设用地变化,推算建设用地转移总量。结合Logistic-CA模型和决策树-CA模型,预测模拟了2012年的建设用地分布并与实际相比较,分析其整体精度和误差来源。结果显示基于CA模型的建设用地动态发展模拟具有良好的效果,可以为城市的发展规划,过程演变提供虚拟的实验手段和科学依据。 相似文献
18.
Modelling coastal land use change by incorporating spatial autocorrelation into cellular automata models 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This paper presents a spatial autoregressive (SAR) method-based cellular automata (termed SAR-CA) model to simulate coastal land use change, by incorporating spatial autocorrelation into transition rules. The model captures the spatial relationships between explained and explanatory variables and then integrates them into CA transition rules. A conventional CA model (LogCA) based on logistic regression (LR) was studied as a comparison. These two CA models were applied to simulate urban land use change of coastal regions in Ningbo of China from 2000 to 2015. Compared to the LR method, the SAR model yielded smaller accumulated residuals that showed a random distribution in fitting the CA transition rules. The better-fitting SAR model performed well in simulating urban land use change and scored an overall accuracy of 85.3%, improving on the LogCA model by 3.6%. Landscape metrics showed that the pattern generated by the SAR-CA model has less difference with the observed pattern. 相似文献
19.
GIS支持下滑坡灾害空间预测方法研究 总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11
滑坡预测在防灾减灾工作中具有重要意义,它包括空间、时间预测两个方面。基于统计模型进行区域评价与空间预测是滑坡灾害研究的重要方向,但是预测结果往往依赖样本数量和空间分布等。本文以马来西亚金马伦高原为研究区,选择高程、坡度、坡向、地表曲率、构造、土地覆盖、地貌类型、道路和排水系统作为评价因子,探讨运用地理信息系统(GIS)和遥感(RS)获取与管理滑坡灾害信息,以及热带雨林地区湿热环境下滑坡空间预测的方法。支持向量机(SVM)和逻辑(Logistic)回归模型分别应用于滑坡空间预测,结果显示平均预测精度分别为95.9%和86.2%,SVM法具有较高的描述精度,值得推荐;同时,基于SVM模型的滑坡空间预测受样本影响较小,预测结果相对比较稳定,这对于滑坡灾害区域评价与预测的快速实现具有实际意义。 相似文献
20.
Improving urban cellular automata performance by integrating global and geographically weighted logistic regression models 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 In many of the conventional cellular automata (CA) models, particularly Urban‐CA which are used for urban growth, the spatial heterogeneities and local differences of the land use conversion processes are ignored. Global logistic regression (LR) is a popular model employed to define the transition rules of Urban‐CA. By considering the local characteristics, Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR) provides interesting capabilities for urban growth modelling. In this research, in addition to using GWLR in the definition of transition rules, the advantages of integrating GWLR and LR for urban growth simulation were evaluated; these have not been considered in previous studies. Local and global probabilities obtained from the calibration of GWLR and LR were combined to define the transition rules of an Urban‐CA. Urban growth was simulated in the Islamshahr sub‐region located southwest of Tehran, Iran for the two periods 1992‐1996 and 1996‐2002, and data from these periods were used for training and testing the prediction abilities, respectively. In the first period, GWLR showed good performance and a significant contribution to the enhancement of the simulation performance, but in the second period, the effectiveness of LR on the prediction accuracy increased. Due to their complementary roles, the integration of the GWLR and LR models resulted in improved simulation performance in both periods. 相似文献