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1.
区域人口迁移流的规模不仅取决于迁出地与目的地的“双边”要素,也与前期迁移流和周边迁移流息息相关。传统重力模型揭示了区域人口迁移过程的“推-拉”机制,但受制于对时空维度的忽视,无法有效表达迁移流之间的时空依赖关系,因而难以度量区域要素变化对迁移流产生的时空溢出效应。本文引入多种形式的时空依赖结构,构建迁移流时空重力模型,并采用贝叶斯马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛（MCMC）方法进行估计。在此基础上,结合时空效应框架量化区域要素对迁移流的影响,定量分析人口迁移过程的时空溢出效应与动力机制。本文以1985-2015年中国省际人口迁移为例,通过与非空间的动态重力模型估计结果比较,初步表明时间依赖、空间依赖以及时空扩散依赖在区域人口迁移过程中不容忽视;时空维度上,区域要素变化在初期对迁移网络的溢出效应超过对该区域迁移流的直接影响;逐渐衰减的时空溢出效应维持了区域人口迁移规模发展的相对稳定,与动态重力模型估计结果形成了鲜明对比。区域人口规模、人均GDP水平及其时空溢出效应共同驱动中国省际人口迁移系统的发展。耦合时空维度依赖关系的时空重力模型能更好地理解区域人口迁移过程的演化特征,为促进区域人口均衡发展提供科学的决策依据。  相似文献   

2.
Accurate prediction on geological hazards can prevent disaster events in advance and greatly reduce property losses and life casualties.Glacial debris flows are the most serious hazards in southeastern Tibet in China due to their complexity in formation mechanism and the difficulty in prediction.Data collected from 102 glacier debris flow events from 31 gullies since 1970 and regional meteorological data from 1970 to 2019 in ParlungZangbo River Basin in southeastern Tibet were used for Artificial Neural Network(ANN)-based prediction of glacial debris flows.The formation mechanism of glacial debris flows in the ParlungZangbo Basin was systematically analyzed,and the calculations involving the meteorological data and disaster events were conducted by using the statistical methods and two layers fully connected neural networks.The occurrence probabilities and scales of glacial debris flows(small,medium,and large)were predicted,and promising results have been achieved.Through the proposed model calculations,a prediction accuracy of 78.33%was achieved for the scale of glacial debris flows in the study area.The prediction accuracy for both large-and medium-scale debris flows are higher than that for small-scale debris flows.The debris flow scale and the probability of occurrence increase with increasing rainfall and temperature.In addition,the K-fold cross-validation method was used to verify the reliability of the model.The average accuracy of the model calculated under this method is about 93.3%,which validates the proposed model.Practices have proved that the combination of ANN and disaster events can provide sound prediction on geological hazards under complex conditions.  相似文献   

3.
地缘环境时空分析是对地缘体、地缘关系及地缘结构进行的解析、评价和预测,是把握地缘环境空间特征、关联关系演化规律的重要途径。本文采用文献研究、类比归纳、建模研究等方法,提出地缘环境对象是地理信息世界中对现实地缘环境实体抽象后的数字化表达,地缘环境对象流是对象间物质、信息和能量数据交互过程的总称,与地缘关系间存在映射关系,对地缘环境态势和演化过程具有关键作用。在对地缘环境对象流相关概念和内涵解析的基础上,探讨了地缘环境对象流的数据表达与组织方法,构建了地缘环境分析模型,模型从地缘环境系统构成出发,将地缘环境对象流的分析逻辑和数据模型结合,分别建立地缘环境对象流分析原理的逻辑表达及地缘环境对象化数据组织体系,在数据支持下利用数据分析算法来确定地缘环境对象与地缘关系间的映射函数,实现面向应用场景和具体问题的地缘环境分析。本文对地缘环境分析模型进行了验证,以“印太地区”地缘经济环境分析为例,基于2009—2018年该区域经济水平排位前10的国家经济数据,进行了地缘经济实体特征的抽象、贸易对象流的数据表达与组织、数据分析及地缘关系测度,分析了贸易流的时空变化过程、地缘影响力以及地缘关系群组等,验证了模型在面向具体场景的地缘环境分析中的有效性。  相似文献   

4.
针对区域相对高程对Tm模型影响研究领域的空缺,基于已有的对流层顶经验模型,讨论区域相对高程对Tm模型的影响,并在此基础上构建中国区域的h0Tm回归模型,同时建立青藏高原地区的区域模型h0Tm-Qz。模型检验结果表明：1）以ERA5格网数据为参考值,h0Tm模型的RMS为2.43 K,相比于Bevis公式和GPT2w-1模型,精度分别提高了1.15 K(32%)和0.63 K(21%);2）以探空数据为参考值,h0Tm模型的RMS为2.48 K,相比于Bevis公式和GPT2w-1模型精度分别提高了1.19 K(32%)和2.06 K(45%),h0Tm模型在中国区域表现出较低的误差和良好的稳定性,尤其是在中国西部地区表现出更为显著的优势;3）顾及区域相对高程的青藏高原区域模型h0Tm-Qz相较于该地区的单因子（Ts）区域模型TsTm-Qz和Bevis公式,精度分别提高了0.54 K(19%)和2.50 K(51%)。  相似文献   

5.
Introduction Landscape evolution in glaciated high mountains environment in southwestern China is undergoing the coupled processes of monsoon- induced denudation and active tectonic. The debris fan development, in particular sediment transfer, is most int…  相似文献   

6.
This paper presents a lumped mass model to describe the run-out and velocity of a series of large flume tests,which was carried out to investigate some propagation mechanisms involved in rapid,dry,dense granular flows and energy transformation when the flows encountered obstacles and reoriented their movement directions.Comparisons between predicted and measured results show that the trend of predicted velocities was basically matched with that of measured ones.Careful scrutiny of test videos reveals that subsequent particles with a higher velocity collided with slowed fronts to make them accelerate. However,this simple model cannot reflect collisions between particles because it treated released materials as a rigid block.Thus,the predicted velocity was somewhat lower than the measured velocity in most cases.When the flow changed its direction due to the variation in slope inclination,the model predicted a decrease in velocity.The predicted decrease in velocity was less than the measured one within a reasonable range of 10% or less.For some cases in which a convexity was introduced,the model also predicted the same trend of velocities as measured in the tests.The velocity increased greatly after the materials took a ballistic trajectory from the vertex of the convexity,and reduced dramatically when they finally made contact with the base of the lower slope.The difference between prediced and measured decrease in velocity was estimated to be about 5% due to the landing.Therefore,the simple lumped mass model based on the energy approach could roughly predict the run-out and velocity of granular flows,although it neglected internal deformation,intergranular collision and friction.  相似文献   

7.
The Gongga Mountain of eastern Tibet Plateau is a representative of the alpine regions with high peaks and deep valleys. Climate change over the last thousand years has controlled the dynamics of glacier and debris flow occurrence, which resulted in substantial changes in the mountainous environment. The authors surveyed the community structure of primary forests in Gongga Mountain and forest successign processes in woodland plots. The changing features in the subalpine environment are discussed in this paper. Tree species and sizes between the glacier shrinking areas and debris flow fans in Hailuogou Valley are compared. The pioneer species that settle in debris flow fans and the glacier shrinking areas are Salix spp. and Populus purdomii. Abies fabri and Picea brachytyla are the climax tree species. The succession process of primary vegetation in Hailuogou (2700 ～ 3200 m) can be divided into four stages:  相似文献   

8.
Helong City is located in the northeastern Changbai Mountain with a poor geological environment, there often occur debris flows, collapses and landslides; especially debris flows restrict the local economic development. Based on fractal theory and the surveying data of 34 debris flows, the authors studied fractal feature of debris flow gully and its various situations of fractal dimensions in different observation scales. The nonlinear relation reveals the development of non-uniformity and self similarity of debris flow gully.  相似文献   

9.
《山地科学学报》2020,17(1):156-172
Loose deposits, rainfall and topography are three key factors that triggering debris flows.However, few studies have investigated the effects of loose deposits on the whole debris flow process.On June 28, 2012, a catastrophic debris flow occurred in the Aizi Valley, resulting in 40 deaths.The Aizi Valley is located in the Lower Jinsha River,southwestern Sichuan Province, China. The Aizi Valley debris flow has been selected as a case for addressing loose deposits effects on the whole debris flow process through remote sensing, field investigation and field experiments. Remote sensing interpretation and laboratory experiments were used to obtain the distribution and characteristics of the loose deposits, respectively. A field experiment was conducted to explore the mechanics of slope debris flows, and another field investigation was conducted to obtain the processes of debris flow formation, movement and amplification. The results showed that loose deposits preparation, slope debris flow initiation,gully debris flow confluence and valley debris flow amplification were dominated by the loose deposits.Antecedent droughts and earthquake activities may have increased the potential for loose soil sources in the Aizi Valley, which laid the foundation for debris flow formation. Slope debris flow initiated under rainfall, and the increase in the water content as well as the pore water pressure of the loose deposits were the key factors affecting slope failure. The nine gully debris flows converged in the valley, and the peak discharge was amplified 3.3 times due to a blockage and outburst caused by a large boulder. The results may help in predicting and assessing regional debris flows in dry-hot and seismic-prone areas based on loose deposits, especially considering large boulders.  相似文献   

10.
The Chedaren ravine belongs to high-prone areas of debris flow in Jilin Province,which threaten the local people's life and security seriously. The authors used the residual correction theory to amend the GM (1, 1) model and forecast annual precipitation in disaster year of the Chedaren ravine; it provides scientific foundation for early warning of debris flow disaster in the rainy season based on weather forecast. The prediction results show that annual precipitation is 724.7 mm in 2009; the region will probably occur large-scale debris flow during the rainy season.  相似文献   

11.
In metropolitan regions, the change in the strength of＂flows＂ between a core city and surrounding cities reflects the range of the core city＇s influence, while the gravity between core city and other cities reflects the strength of potential relation between them. This article firstly attempts to delimit the boundary of metropolitan regions with the two dimensions measure combining ＂flows＂ and gravitation. The former is measured through the flow of people between the core city and surrounding cities, and the latter is measured through both population and gross domestic products （GDP） of the core city and surrounding cities. The hierarchy of the cities within a metropolitan region is classified in order to emphasize the roles of the cities belonging to the metropolitan regions, different from the general way through population scale and administrative level, and is typical in China. This paper uses the Shanghai metropolitan region as a research case, determining boundary of this metropolitan region clearly and classifying hierarchy of the cities within the region. The final results are significantly different to previous work, even overthrowing the traditional system of urban hierarchy partly. It is helpful to highlight the function of cities in organizing the regional economy, the level structure of metropolitan regions, and each city＇s relative importance in a metropolitan region, which can be taken as scientific basis for planning integrated regions or urban systems.  相似文献   

12.
The rapid changes in flow pattern due to varying channel widths will make significantly impact on the hydraulic structures and evolutions of open channel. To better understand the impact of varying width, a flume experiment with adjustable width and a depth-averaged two-dimension numerical model were used to analyze the variations of flow parameters. Our experimental results showed that flow velocity gradually increased with decreasing water depth in converging region, and decreased with increasing water depth in diverging zones. It was also found that the turbulence intensity laws in three directions were not agreed with the theoretical relationships proposed by Nezu and Nakagawa in 1993 in straight open channel flows. The flow in the channel with varying width may change from the supercritical flow to the subcritical flow as a function of Froude number. Our numerical simulations with different flow rates showed that most of the hydraulic jumps in diverging region were submerged jump and the degree of submergence increased with increasing flow rate in gradual channel transition. When the flow rate increased, the range of supercritical flow rapidly decreased and the flow changed from the supercritical condition to the subcritical condition in diverging sections.  相似文献   

13.
Helong City is located in the northeastern Changbai Mountain with a poor geological environment, there often occur debris flows, collapses and landslides; especially debris flows restrict the local economic development. Based on fractal theory and the surveying data of 34 debris flows, the authors studied fractal feature of debris flow gully and its various situations of fractal dimensions in different observation scales. The nonlinear relation reveals the development of non-uniformity and self similarity of debris flow gully  相似文献   

14.
The Chedaren ravine belongs to high-prone areas of debris flow in Jilin Province, which threaten the local people＇ s life and security seriously. The authors used the residual correction theory to amend the GM （ 1, 1 ） model and forecast annual precipitation in disaster year of the Chedaren ravine ; it provides scientific foundation for early warning of debris flow disaster in the rainy season based on weather forecast. The prediction resuits show that annual precipitation is 724.7 mm in 2009 ; the region will probably occur large-scale debris flow during the rainy season.  相似文献   

15.
Studies on susceptibility to debris flows at regional scale(100-1000 km~2) are important for the protection and management of mountain areas. To reach this objective, routing models, mainly based on land topography, can be used to predict susceptible areas rapidly while necessitating few input data. In this research, Flow-R model is implemented to create the susceptibility map for the debris flow of the Vizze Valley(BZ, North-Eastern Italy; 134 km~2). The analysis considers the model application at local scale for three sub-catchments and then it explores the model upscaling at the regional scale by verifying two methods to generate the source areas of debris-flow initiation. Using data of an extreme event occurred in the Vizze Valley(4 August 2012) and historical information, the modeling verification highlights that the propagation parameters are relatively simple to set in order to obtain correct runout distances. A double DTM filtering-using a threshold for the upslope contributing area(0.1 km~2) and a threshold for the terrain-slope angle(15°)-provides a satisfactory prediction of source areas and susceptibility map within the geological conditions of the Vizze Valley.  相似文献   

16.
生态环境数据合理有效地组织与管理,对于开展区域生态环境研究意义重大。本文首先探讨了生态环境数据组织管理的基本流程。在此基础上,指出生态环境数据分类编码与元数据的规范化,以及生态环境模型的设计是实现生态环境数据组织管理的难点所在。随后,笔者以云南边境地带生态环境数据为例,提出了生态环境数据分类编码与元数据方案。并且在深入剖析生态环境数据特征的基础上,重点研究了生态环境数据的建模方案,提出了生态环境辅助数据模型(EcoADM)。最后,简要介绍了云南边境生态环境数据库管理原型系统的建设。  相似文献   

17.
A large number of debris flows occurred in the Wenchuan earthquake zone after the 12 May 2008 earthquake.The risks posed by these debris flows were rather high.An appropriate model is required to predict the possible runout distance and impacted area.This paper describes a study on the runout characteristics of the debris flows that occurred in the Wenchuan earthquake zone over the past four years.A total of 120 debris flows are analyzed.Separate multivariate regression models are established for the runout distances of hill-slope debris flows and channelized debris flows.The control variables include type of debris flow,debris flow volume,and elevation difference.Comparison of the debris flows occurring before and after the earthquake shows that the runout distance increased after the earthquake due to sufficient material supply and increased mobility of the source materials.In addition,the runout distances of annual debris flow events in 2008,2010 and 2011 are analyzed and compared.There is a tendency that the runout distance decreases over time due to the decreasing source material volume and possible changes of debris flow type.Comparison between the debris flows in the earthquake zone and the debris flows in Swiss Alps,Canada,Austria,and Japan shows that the former have a smaller mobility.  相似文献   

18.
应用质点动力学原理,推导地出地幔流体在径向运移中受地球自旋惯性场作用而西移的速率及位移公式。根据地球自旋惯性系统特点设计地幔流体的２维实验模型,推导赤道面附近地幔流体的运动公式,并推广到３维。最后得出地壳块体被动西漂、地幔软流体环流及地球各层圈差速旋转等结论。  相似文献   

19.
The upper Yangtze River region is one of the most frequent debris flow areas in China. The study area contains a cascade of six large hydropower stations located along the river with total capacity of more than 70 million kilowatts. The purpose of the study was to determine potential and dynamic differences in debris flow susceptibility and intensity with regard to seasonal monsoon events. We analyzed this region’s debris flow history by examining the effective peak acceleration of antecedent earthquakes, the impacts of antecedent droughts, the combined effects of earthquakes and droughts, with regard to topography, precipitation, and loose solid material conditions. Based on these factors, we developed a debris flow susceptibility map. Results indicate that the entire debris flow susceptibility area is 167,500 km2, of which 26,800 km2 falls within the high susceptibility area, with 60,900 km2 in medium and 79,800 km2 are in low susceptibility areas. Three of the six large hydropower stations are located within the areas with high risk of debris flows. The synthetic zonation map of debris flow susceptibility for the study area corresponds with both the investigation data and actual distribution of debris flows. The results of debris flow susceptibility provide base-line data for mitigating, assessing, controlling and monitoring of debris flows hazards.  相似文献   

20.
A debris flow forecast model based on a water-soil coupling mechanism that takes the debrisflow watershed as a basic forecast unit was established here for the prediction of disasters at the watershed scale.This was achieved through advances in our understanding of the formation mechanism of debris flow.To expand the applicable spatial scale of this forecasting model,a method of identifying potential debris flow watersheds was used to locate areas vulnerable to debris flow within a forecast region.Using these watersheds as forecasting units and a prediction method based on the water-soil coupling mechanism,a new forecasting method of debris flow at the regional scale was established.In order to test the prediction ability of this new forecasting method,the Sichuan province,China was selected as a study zone and the large-scale debris flow disasters attributable to heavy rainfall in this region on July 9,2013 were taken as the study case.According to debris flow disaster data on July 9,2013 which were provided by the geo-environmental monitoring station of Sichuan province,there were 252 watersheds in which debris flow events actually occurred.The current model predicted that 265 watersheds were likely to experience a debris flow event.Among these,43 towns including 204 debrisflow watersheds were successfully forecasted and 24 towns including 48 watersheds failed.The false prediction rate and failure prediction rate of thisforecast model were 23% and 19%,respectively.The results show that this method is more accurate and more applicable than traditional methods.  相似文献   

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