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Rudraprayag in Garhwal Himalayan division is one of the most vulnerable districts to landslides in India. Heavy rainfall, steep slope and developmental activities are important factors for the occurrence of landslides in the district. Therefore, specific assessment of landslide susceptibility and its accuracy at regional level is essential for disaster management and proper land use planning. The article evaluates effectiveness of frequency ratio, fuzzy logic and logistic regression models for assessing landslide susceptibility in Rudraprayag district of Uttarakhand state, India. A landslide inventory map was prepared and verified by field data. Fourteen landslide parameters and generated inventory map were utilized to prepare landslide susceptibility maps through frequency ratio, fuzzy logic and logistic regression models. Landslide susceptibility maps generated through these models were classified into very high, high, medium, low and very low categories using natural breaks classification. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve, spatially agreed area approach and seed cell area index (SCAI) method were used to validate the landslide models. Validation results revealed that fuzzy logic model was found to be more effective in assessing landslide susceptibility in the study area. The landslide susceptibility map generated through fuzzy logic model can be best utilized for landslide disaster management and effective land use planning. 相似文献
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四川省滑坡灾害严重,特别是2008年之后,灾情显著加剧,如何预防滑坡灾害是保护人民生命财产安全的有效途径。滑坡灾害的预警模型研究是滑坡灾害预防领域的核心课题。本文对四川省滑坡灾害危险性进行了评价,并开展了滑坡灾害气象风险预警模型研究。①以确定性系数的方法量化坡度、地形起伏度、水文地质岩性、植被覆盖度、地震烈度和年均降雨量因子,建立逻辑回归模型,定量地进行四川省滑坡灾害危险性区划,并对结果进行验证。结果表明,四川省滑坡灾害高危险性区域成“Y”字型分布,此外川中、川东北地区滑坡灾害危险性也非常高,这与四川省滑坡灾害的空间分布情况相符。②在前期滑坡灾害与降雨量统计分析、滑坡灾害危险性评价的基础上,以滑坡灾害危险性评价为静态因子,日降雨量数据为动态因子,通过逻辑回归模型的结果,确定以当日降雨量概率化值、滑坡灾害危险性值、前一日降雨概率化值、前两日降雨概率化值、前三日降雨概率化值为临灾模型影响因子,各因子对预警结果影响程度按上述顺序递减,建立了地质-气象耦合的临灾气象预警模型。通过检验区数据对模型的检验表明,该预警模型能成功预警80%以上的滑坡灾害;通过滑坡灾害群发个例检验发现,该预警模型与四川省现用模型相比,预警区域明显减小,空报率和漏报率显著降低。 相似文献
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滑坡灾害应急处置能力是地质灾害减灾防灾的重要方面。目前,基于滑坡灾害预测和预警分级成果,系统性的应急措施分类研究还鲜有展开,因此,以三峡库区白水河滑坡为例,运用时间序列加法模型将滑坡累计位移分解为趋势项位移与周期项位移,并分别应用多项式拟合及自回归（AR）模型对2个分量进行预测,在此结果上采用聚类分析方法将滑坡变形分为匀速变形与加速变形阶段,综合判断滑坡灾害预警等级,开展了针对滑坡预警分级的应急措施研究。结果表明:白水河滑坡预警等级主要为蓝色和黄色2种类型,对处于不同的预警等级下的滑坡,可根据滑坡变形特征快速决策,基于滑坡灾害预测和预警分级结果能更有效地指导滑坡应急处置。 相似文献
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黄土区滑坡研究中地形因子的选取与适宜性分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
黄土高原是中国生态较为脆弱的地区,也是滑坡发育的地层之一。黄土滑坡发育是孕灾环境、致灾因子和承灾体等多种因素联合作用的结果,其中作为重要孕灾环境因素的地形因子的选取是黄土滑坡风险研究的基础。本文选取黄土滑坡灾害多发的甘谷县作为研究区,综合利用敏感性指数、确定性系数和相关系数方法进行地形因子在滑坡灾害研究中的适宜性分析,得出以下结论：基于确定性系数法、敏感性分析模型和相关系数法,最终筛选出适宜于本区域滑坡灾害评价的地形因子为：坡度、坡度变率、坡形和地表粗糙度;确定性系数法、敏感性分析模型都基于分析单一因子与滑坡之间的关系进行致灾因子选取,忽视地形因子之间的相关性。实验结果表明,研究区稳定性较差的区域与已发生滑坡灾害分布数量具有较好的对应关系,并深入分析了滑坡与地形因子分级范围的关系,发现地形因子分级范围对地质灾害风险研究具有重要的影响,是导致部分区域的差异性主要原因之一。实地调查发现,河网切割密度及人类工程活动也对研究区危险性具有重要的控制作用,是重要的地形因素。 相似文献
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王治华 《地球信息科学学报》2013,(5):726-733,782
识别滑坡须先了解什么是滑坡,广义滑坡包括崩塌、滑坡、碎屑流、泥石流等所有斜坡重力侵蚀现象;狭义滑坡指部分斜坡沿着斜坡内的一个或数个面在重力的作用下作剪切运动的现象。各类滑坡有自已特殊的地表形态特征,发育的基本地质环境条件和触发因素,据这些特征识别滑坡。利用数字滑坡技术进行滑坡识别大致分为2步:(1)通过RS和GIS技术将不同时间的调查区地物现场以不同分辨率展现在数字图像上,并与地理控制及地质环境信息配准、组合,建立解译基础;(2)在滑坡地学理论指导下,通过人机交互方式进行解译和时空分析,获取减灾防灾需要的信息。该方法尚未达到遥感自动识别滑坡的程度,但建立解译基础的过程已可由计算机通过多种程序软件完成,故认为滑坡模式识别的前2个步骤:数字化及预处理已由计算机实现。现需探索的是用计算机实现基于滑坡地学理论知识,以人机交互方式进行的滑坡识别及分析过程。就狭义滑坡而言,基于DEM的滑坡地形识别已可由计算机实现。如能确定地面滑坡壁及滑体与地下滑面、滑床的关系,了解它们的光谱特征并建立计算模型,便可构建遥感技术的滑坡模式识别。 相似文献
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Kirchhoff beam migration is a beam migration method, which focuses on rapid imaging of geological structures. Although this imaging method ignores the amplitude information in the calculation process, it can calculate multi-arrival traveltime. This migration method takes into account both imaging accuracy and computational efficiency. Kirchhoff beam migration employs coarse grid techniques in several key steps such as traveltime calculation, weight function calculation, and imaging calculation. The selection of the coarse mesh size has an important influence on the computational efficiency and imaging accuracy of the migration imaging method. This paper will analyze this influence and illustrate the analysis results by the Marmousi data sets. 相似文献
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准确评价滑坡-隧道相互作用及稳定性, 采用合理的病害防治方法, 对保障公路顺利完工具有重要意义。以香丽高速公路昌格洛滑坡为例, 利用现场地质调查、钻探等方法查明了滑坡成因机制以及变形特性, 通过数值模拟研究了昌格洛滑坡在天然、降雨和开挖等工况下的空间应力应变特征以及稳定性变化, 研究了隧道与所穿越滑坡之间的相互作用, 据此提出了相应的病害防治方案。结果表明: 昌格洛滑坡在自然条件下处于欠稳定状态; 隧道开挖难以引起滑坡整体失稳, 但会诱发滑坡局部变形, 受滑坡体变形影响, 穿越滑体的隧道部分将产生拉伸-剪切变形; 降雨严重恶化滑坡稳定性, 导致滑坡失稳, 进而使穿越其中的隧道失效破坏。原选线方案面临风险巨大, 最优防治方案为线路东移绕避, 使隧道从滑面以下穿过。研究方法和成果可为香丽高速公路类似病害的防治提供有益借鉴。 相似文献
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Stability analysis of the dam is important for disaster prevention and reduction. The dam＇s geometry plays an important role in understanding its stability. This study develops a rapid landslide dam geometry assessment method for both earthquake-induced and rainfall-induced landslide dams based on nine real cases collected in Chinese Taipei and 214 cases collected worldwide. For simplification purposes, a landslide dam is classified into triangular or trapezoidal. The rapid landslide dam geometry assessment method in this paper uses only satellite maps and the topographic maps to get landslide area, and then analyze the dam geometry. These maps are used to evaluate the area of the landslide and the slope of the river bed. Based on the evaluation information, the proposed method can calculate dam height, the length of the dam, and the angles of the dam in both upstream and downstream directions. These geometry parameters of a landslide dam provide important information for further dam stability analysis. The proposed methodology is applied to a real landslide dam case at Hsiaolin Village. The result shows that the proposed method can be used to assess the landslide dam geometry. 相似文献
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突发性地质灾害危险性评估对灾害防治与风险管理具有重要意义。由于不同地区影响灾害发生的因子各不相同,实际评估过程中难以全面客观地选取适宜的评估因子。机器学习对处理灾害系统的高维非线性问题独具优势,但因模型难以调优而评估效果有限。本文尝试提出一种双向优化的滑坡危险性评估方法：在构建因子敏感性指数开展定量敏感性分析的基础上,结合重要性分析、相关性分析、共线性分析构建四维(Four-Dimensional, 4D)特征筛选法用于评估因子综合优选;为克服模型难以调优的问题,引入差分进化(Differential Evolution, DE)算法优化支持向量机(Support Vector Machine, SVM)与多层感知机(Multi-Layer Perceptron, MLP) 2种推广能力较强的机器学习模型。最后,以福建省滑坡为例,开展评估方法研究。研究表明：4D特征筛选法能更加客观全面地选取适宜性更高的危险性评估因子,从而降低数据维度、减少信息冗余以提升评估模型性能;DE算法对SVM与MLP具有显著的优化效果,有益于增强模型滑坡危险性的评估准确度,DE-SVM、DE-MLP相较于未优化前模型的AUC值分别提升了4.43%与4.37%;基于双向优化的滑坡危险性评估结果表明,降雨与土地利用类型对福建省滑坡发生具有重要影响作用,福建省滑坡极高危险区普遍年均降雨较高、地形复杂多变,极低危险区主要位于东南沿海一带及闽江流域两侧。本研究为滑坡危险性评估中的影响因子客观选取与机器学习模型调优提供了一定思路。 相似文献
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This paper analysed the evolution of landslide research and research foci in different countries. The data comprise 3105 landslide SCI articles published between January 1977 and June 2015 from the Web of Science. The data are extracted under interaction constraints of the journal title, category, and keywords. The complex network method is used for the analysis. First, from the perspective of topics and methods, the evolution is systematically assessed by generating a co-citation network of the articles and a semantic cluster analysis. Second, from the perspective of topics and landsliderelated disasters, the focus in different countries is discussed by generating co-occurrence networks. These networks are the co-occurrence of the countries and keywords, and the co-occurrence of countries and landslide-related disaster phrases. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) landslide susceptibility analysis and methods of machine learning are popular research topics and methods, respectively. The topics change through time, and the article output is influenced by increasing landslide-related disasters, increasing economic losses and casualties, a desire for a more complete and accurate landslide inventory, and the use of effective methods, such as geographical information Science(GIS) and machine learning.(2) The research focus in each country is related with the country-specific disasters or economic costs caused by landslides to some degree. In addition to Italy and the USA, China is the country most commonly affected by landslides, and it should develop its own landslide database and complete in-depth studies of disaster mitigation. 相似文献
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《山地科学学报》2020,17(2):358-372
The earthquake that occurred on May 12, 2008, in Wenchuan County aroused a great deal of research on co-seismic landslide susceptibility assessment, but there is still a lack of an evaluation method that considers the activity state of the landslide itself. Therefore, this paper establishes a new susceptibility evaluation model that superimposes the active landslide state based on previous susceptibility evaluation models. Based on a multi-phase landslide database, the probabilistic approach was used to evaluate landslide susceptibility in the Miansi town over many years. We chose the elevation, slope, aspect, and distance from the channel as trigger factors and then used the probability comprehensive discrimination method to calculate the probability of landslide occurrence. Then, the susceptibility results of each period were calculated by superposition with the activity rate. The results show that between 2008 and 2014, the proportion of areas with low landslide susceptibility in the study area was the largest, and the proportionof areas with the highest susceptibility was minimal. The landslide area with highest susceptibility gradually decreased from 2014 to 2017. However, in 2017, 15.06% of the area was still with high susceptibility, and relevant disaster prevention and reduction measures should be taken in these areas. The larger area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC) indicates that the results of the landslide susceptibility assessment in this study are more objective and reliable than those of previous models. The difference in the AUC values over many years shows that the accuracy of the evaluation results of this model is not constant, and a greater number of landslides or higher landslide activity corresponds to a higher accuracy of the evaluation results. 相似文献
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传统滑坡模拟方法需要进行大量物理模拟计算,导致模拟效率低且模拟精度受制于所采用的力学模型。本研究在传统模拟方法的基础上引入PhysX物理引擎中的粒子系统模拟滑坡发生的整个过程,简化了传统模拟方法的大量物理模拟计算过程,提高了模拟效率。首先采用参数率定以及极限平衡分析方法计算滑坡灾害体的物理属性值及几何属性值,并将其转化为粒子属性,其次在物理引擎中通过控制模拟时间及粒子周期模拟滑坡灾害过程,最后通过粒子系统反馈回的滑坡粒子的几何位置、持续时间和个数等要素的统计计算得到滑坡灾害范围。选取浙江丽水市滑坡为典型案例,验证了本文方法的可行性与可靠性。 相似文献
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《世界地质(英文版)》2015,(4)
Demigration refers to directly applying a specific imaging technique to a migrated section. It is applied primarily to seismic data mapping. In a previous research study,a time-efficient implementation technology of demigration was expounded. In the present study,the Fast Marching Method( FMM) used for traveltime computation in the isochrone-stack demigration,is developed. Furthermore,other key techniques( such as selection of aperture and antialiasing filtering factor) are analyzed in detail. Besides,the detail implementation method and program flow are given,which is shown their good computational efficiency and high-quality demigration effect. This implementation technique is illustrated with both the V( z) model and Marmousi model. It provides a basic method for implementing demigration in the application of seismic data mapping. 相似文献
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2016年山东省开展各市地质灾害排查工作,烟台市作为地质灾害较发育区,是该次排查重点工作区之一。该文以现状调查为基础,查明了烟台市共发育471处地质灾害隐患点,地质灾害规模以小型为主,主要类型为崩塌、滑坡、泥石流、采空塌陷和岩溶塌陷,其中崩塌隐患点占地质灾害总数的68%,数量最多,其次为泥石流和采空塌陷,各占总数的15%和14%,滑坡数量最少,仅占总数的1%,并介绍了各类地质灾害分布特征。在此基础上,对地质灾害的主要影响因素——地形地貌、岩土体类型、地质构造、降水和人类工程活动等进行了分析。最后提出了在进行工程建设活动的同时重视其引发的地质灾害问题,以减少和预防其带来的次生地质灾害。 相似文献
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高分辨率的DEM和DOM数据是对地形地貌信息的准确描述,也是滑坡信息提取的重要数据源。首先,针对滑坡信息提取的要求,本文采用无人搭载微型单反相机的影像获取平台,结合野外测量的GPS数据,弥补了无人机POS信息精度低的劣势;针对无人机影像的特点,运用摄影测量基本原理与计算机视觉算法,获取高精度、高分辨率的DEM与DOM影像,保留了丰富的光谱与纹理信息。其次,借助ESP辅助工具获取了DOM影像的最佳分割尺度,并结合研究区地物特征构建了基于模糊分类与SVM算法相结合的决策树,运用面向对象的分类方法实现了对研究区内植被、道路、疑似滑坡区域的信息提取。最后,依照研究区地物分布的空间特征确定了高风险等级区域,并对该区域进行滑坡的形态与纹理分析以及精度评价,其中提取的疑似滑坡区域用户精度为91.44%、生产者精度为84.65%,结果表明无人机遥感在滑坡信息提取领域具有较高的应用价值。 相似文献
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滑坡堰塞坝是由斜坡失稳堵塞河道而形成的天然坝体,且易溃坝诱发洪水,对沿岸群众生命财产构成巨大的威胁。为提升主动减灾防灾能力,急需构建了一种快速预测与判断滑坡堵江成坝能力的方法。通过文献资料查阅,结合遥感技术,提取了70处典型滑坡的地貌特征参数,其中50处为堵江成坝滑坡。运用K-S检验和M-W U检验方法分析了滑坡地貌特征因子的敏感性,利用Boruta算法确定了因子重要度,筛选了滑坡体积、面积、高差、长度及河宽共5个地貌特征参数。基于此,利用Bayes判别法与逻辑回归方法,分别建立了滑坡堰塞坝形成的预测模型,准确率超过90%。选取高重要度且差异显著的因子,利用比值法建立了滑坡堵江成坝阈值判据,实现了滑坡堰塞坝形成的快速判定。统计不同诱因下滑坡地貌特征,对比V-Wr经验公式,确定了滑坡堰塞坝形成与诱因间的关系,为进一步构建不同诱因下滑坡堰塞坝形成预测模型提供了技术支撑。 相似文献
19.
Earthquake-induced potential landslides are commonly estimated using landslide susceptibility maps. Nevertheless, the fault location is not identified and the ground motion caused by it is unavailable in the map. Thus, potential coseismic landslides for a specific fault motion-induced earthquake could not be predicted using the map. It is meaningful to incorporate the fault location and ground motion characteristics into the landslide predication model. A new method for a specific fault motion-induced coseismic landslide prediction model using GIS (Geographic Information System) is proposed herein. Location of mountain ridges, slope gradients over 45 o , PVGA (Peak Vertical Ground Accelerations) exceeded 0.15 g, and PHGA (Peak Horizontal Ground Accelerations) exceeded 0.25 g of slope units were representing locations that initiated landslides during the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan. These coseismic landslide characteristics were used to identify areas where landslides occurred during Meishan fault motion-induced strong ground motions in Chiayi County in Taiwan. The strong ground motion (over 8 Gal in the database, 1 Gal = 0.01 m/s 2 , and 1 g = 981 Gal) characteristics were evaluated by the fault length, site distance to the fault, and topography, and their attenuation relations are presented in GIS. The results of the analysis show that coseismic landslide areas could be identified promptly using GIS. The earthquake intensity and focus depth have visible effects on ground motion. The shallower the focus depth, the larger the magnitude increase of the landslides. The GIS-based landslide predication method is valuable combining the geomorphic characteristics and ground motion attenuation relationships for a potential region landslide hazard assessment and in disaster mitigation planning. 相似文献
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2018-10-11西藏江达县波罗乡白格村附近发生山体滑坡,导致金沙江断流并形成堰塞湖。收集高分二号、高分三号卫星数据,分析滑坡形成的堰塞湖对上游村镇的影响,并基于Sentinel-1以及ALOS-2 PALSAR-2数据,分别应用PS-InSAR和offset tracking技术获取滑坡体在滑坡发生前的运动特征。结果表明,白格滑坡在灾害发生前已有明显的滑移,根据PS-InSAR技术结果,2017～2018年白格滑坡边缘处存在年平均视线向滑动速率超过2.5 cm/a的PS点,且在白格滑坡周边发现2处潜在滑坡;根据offset tracking结果,白格滑坡在2015-07～2018-07期间的3个时间段呈现出滑动不断加速的特征,滑坡累计滑动量超过30 m。应用InSAR技术可在滑坡灾害发生前识别出活动性滑坡,为滑坡监测预警提供重要依据。 相似文献