共查询到17条相似文献，搜索用时 93 毫秒
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SGP4/SDP4模型精度分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文基于最新发布的SGP4/SDP4(Simplified General Perturbation Version 4/Simplified Deep-space Perturbation Version 4)模型设计了一套定轨方案,从空间目标库中挑选出不同类型和轨道参数的1120个目标进行计算,定量给出了SGP4/SDP4模型处理不同类型空间目标的定轨预报精度.结果表明:近地目标定轨精度为百米量级;半同步和同步轨道定轨精度平均为0.7和1.9km.椭圆轨道目标的定轨精度与偏心率有关,除少数e>0.8的椭圆轨道目标,绝大多数椭圆轨道目标定轨误差均小于10km.用SGP4/SDP4模型对近地目标预报3天,半同步轨道预报30天,同步轨道预报15天,椭圆轨道预报1天,预报误差一般不超过40km. 相似文献
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双行根数(Two Line Element, TLE)作为一类广泛使用的空间物体编目数据, 其预报精度和误差特性是TLE编目 在空间碎片研究中所要关注的问题之一. TLE编目需要配合SGP4/SDP4 (Simplified General Perturbations 4/Simplified Deep Space 4)模型进行轨道预报, 对深空物体来说, 主要考虑带谐项$J_2$、$J_3$、$J_4$摄动、 第三体日月摄动和特殊轨道共振问题修正等. 其中, SGP4/SDP4模型第三体摄动计算时, 对日月轨道近似采用了长期进动根数和 简单平运动的方式, 在外推10d时存在约2$^\circ$--3${^\circ 相似文献
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大量空间目标的真实轨道无法精确知道,目前只能通过跟踪观测的数据进行定轨来得到估计轨道,而估计的轨道就会有误差.双行根数(TLE)是广泛使用的一种特殊编目轨道根数,其配套的轨道模型为Simplified General Perturbations 4(SGP4)/Simplified Deep-space Perturbations 4(SDP4)模型.编目轨道的精度主要依赖于相应的观测模型和动力学模型,这些模型一般都不会非常准确,往往会有误差,有些误差可能直接导致编目定轨结果在局部为有偏估计.通过理论研究和仿真模拟,分析了动力学模型中地球非球形引力位田谐摄动项对编目轨道精度的影响,发现TLE编目轨道中存在随时间周期变化的系统差,该系统误差甚至可以达到千米量级.几何构型较好的测站分布在一定程度上可以削弱编目定轨中产生的系统误差,由于力学模型的限制,无法彻底消除. 相似文献
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以激光测距资料精密定轨结果为参考轨道,分析了两种典型版本SGP4/SDP4模型对低、中、高轨道卫星预报误差的放大规律,当预报超过一定的圈数后误差成指数增长.数值试验结果表明:对低、中、高轨卫星预报误差无显著放大圈数分别是(h≤300 km),40;(300 km≤h≤1 200 km),150;(1 200 km≤h≤10 000 km),300;半同步卫星(19 000km≤h≤22 000 km),55;同步卫星(33 000 km≤h≤38 000 km),10.并图示出参考卫星轨道预报误差的放大规律,供工程中利用双行根数和SGP4/SDP4模型作轨道预报时参考. 相似文献
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非合作目标的激光测距预报一般是基于双行根数(TLE)外推出来的,往往有较大偏差,对激光测距的成功率有较大影响。结合空间目标的轨道理论和实测的数据分析,预报的偏差主要是预测模型外推的空间目标在运行轨道上的平近点角与实际平近点角存在偏差。根据非合作目标在望远镜跟踪视场中的脱靶量,利用相关算法可以找到一个最佳的时间根数偏差量修正空间目标的平近点角。经过修正,空间目标的视位置偏差得到改善,距离偏差能够从几百米减小到几十米,提升了预期回波到达时刻的准确度,可以给单光子探测器提供更高精度的距离门控,提高测距成功率。 相似文献
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光度特性测量是获取空间目标的物理特性的重要技术手段之一,无论是光变曲线的事后分析还是建立光度变化的仿真模型,都离不开一个重要的参数——太阳相位角（太阳-空间目标-测站的空间夹角）.目前空间目标的位置通常是通过双行根数（TLE）外推获得,存在一定误差,且随外推时间的延长而变大,因而有必要对其计算所得的太阳相位角的精度进行评估.以典型的不同高度的激光测距卫星LAGEOS1、AJISAI、STELLA为研究对象,以全球激光测距资料解算所得的高精度轨道作为参考轨道,对2012年全年利用双行根数计算所得的太阳相位角数据进行了比对分析,结果表明对于LAGEOS1、AJISAI这样的中高轨卫星,由于轨道较高,表征阻力的B＊恒定,计算所得的太阳相位角偏差较小,角分量级,且随外推时间的延长不会导致偏差明显增大;而对于STELLA这样的低轨卫星,因轨道较低、受变化的大气的影响显著,计算所得的太阳相位角偏差较大,尤其是当B＊比较大、变化较快时,偏差显著变大,且随外推时间的延长显著增大,在最差情况下：外推1d约为13＇,外推3d约为50＇,外推7d约为251＇,已超出目前的精度要求.因此,在事后分析中应尽可能使用1d之内的TLE计算太阳相位角,对于B＊较大且变化较快情况尤其需要注意.另外,针对UTC闰秒的情况,提出了一种处理方法,即在双行根数外推时判断外推时段是否跨越了闰秒时刻,若跨越了则进行修正：增加或减少1s,相应地需要修改结果对应的时间戳计算方法. 相似文献
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F10.7太阳辐射通量作为输入参数被广泛运用于大气经验模型、电离层模型等空间环境模型,其预报精度直接影响航天器轨道预报精度.采用时间序列法统计了太阳辐射通量F10.7指数和太阳黑子数(SSN)的关系,给出了两者之间的线性关系,在此基础上提出了一种基于长短时记忆神经网络(Long and Short Term Memory,LSTM)的预报方法,方法结合了54 d太阳辐射通量指数和SSN历史数据来对F10.7进行未来7 d短期预报,并与其他预报方法的预报结果进行了比较,结果表明:(1)所建短期预报7 d方法模型的性能优于美国空间天气预报中心(Space Weather Prediction Center, SWPC)的方法,预测值和观测值的相关系数(CC)达到0.96,同时其均方根误差约为11.62个太阳辐射通量单位(sfu),预报结果的均方根误差(RMSE)低于SWPC,下降约11%;(2)对预测的23、24周太阳活动年结果统计表明,太阳活动高年的第7 d F10.7指数预报平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)最优可达12.9%以内,低年最优可达2... 相似文献
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采用重置参数的轨道改进算法 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
《天文研究与技术》2010,(4)
当使用精度差的初始根数作定轨计算时,被估值的模型参数会吸收初值中所含误差而偏离其合理数值(如CD约为2.2),使定轨计算过程的RMS已不再变化,但轨道收敛到与实际状态有偏离的轨道上。文中给出的算例采用重置被歪曲的估值模型参数方法,首先以TLE根数为初值用精密定轨程序解条件方程,然后以第一轮迭代计算结果作为初始根数并重置模型参数,再进行第二轮迭代计算,使定轨计算结果收敛到正确轨道上,文中还使用另一颗激光卫星的双行根数作初值验证了该方法的有效性。较好地解决了因初值不准所引起的定轨计算不收敛,或收敛到与实际状态有偏离的轨道上的问题。最终得出的RMS达到厘米级精度。文中图示了两次定轨计算的RMS变化曲线图、残差分布图,迭代过程的资料采用率及定轨计算结果。 相似文献
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《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2019,43(4):563-578
Two line element (TLE) released by the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) is widely used by aerospace workers, and the matched SGP4/SDP4 (Simplified General Perturbation Version 4/Simplified Deep-space Perturbation Version 4) model is used to propagate it. Nevertheless, no corresponding information about its accuracy and covariance is clearly given, thus the application of the TLE data is greatly restricted. In this paper, the determined and predicted orbits are compared to generate the orbit error data, based on the historical TLE data obtained from the Space-Track website and the SGP4/SDP4 model. By dividing different time bins, the fitting coefficients of the variation of orbit prediction error with time are given for each space object, and the characteristics of the error evolution are further discussed for the different types of orbits. The mean analytic model of the orbit prediction error evolution with time is given respectively for the four orbit types of space objects, which provides a valuable reference for extending the application of the TLE data. 相似文献
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Based on the latest release of the SGP4/SDP4 (Simplified General Perturbation Version 4/ Simplified Deep-space Perturbation Version 4) model, in this paper we have designed an orbit determination program. Through calculations for the 1120 objects with various types and orbital elements selected from the space objects database, we have obtained the accuracies of the orbit determination prediction dealt with various types of space objects by the SGP4/SDP4 model. The results show that the accuracies of the near-earth objects are in the order of magnitude of 100 meters; the averages of the orbit determination accuracies of the semi-synchronous and geosynchronous orbits are, respectively, 0.7 and 1.9 km. The orbit determination accuracies of the elliptical orbit objects are related to their eccentricities. Except for few elliptical orbit objects with e > 0.8, the orbit determination errors of the vast majority of the elliptical orbit objects are all less than 10 km. By using the SGP4/SDP4 model to make 3 days predictions for near-earth objects, 30 days for semi-synchronous orbit objects, 15 days for geosynchronous orbit objects and 1 day for elliptical orbit objects, the errors of prediction generally don’t exceed 40 km. 相似文献
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Space object orbital covariance data is required for collision risk assessments, but publicly accessible two line element (TLE) data does not provide orbital error information. This paper compared historical TLE data and GPS precision ephemerides of CHAMP to assess TLE orbit accuracy from 2002 to 2008, inclusive. TLE error spatial variations with longitude and latitude were calculated to analyze error characteristics and distribution. The results indicate that TLE orbit data are systematically biased from the limited SGP4 model. The biases can reach the level of kilometers, and the sign and magnitude are correlate significantly with longitude. 相似文献
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Da-wei Wang Jing-shi Tang Lin Liu Chao-wei Ma Shi-feng Hao 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2018,42(2):239-266
To understand the long-term evolution and distribution of the space objects, it is necessary to predict their orbits. Compared with the short-term prediction of a few days, the priority concerns of the long-term orbit prediction are the calculation speed, and the accuracies of major orbital elements, including the semi-major axis and eccentricity which define the shape of the orbit, as well as the orbital inclination and the right ascension of ascending node which define the orientation of the orbit. Given these requirements, it is preferable to adopt the semi-analytical method, which averages the system over the orbital period, and integrates the averaged system using the numerical method. It is not new, however, in the available literature, we can hardly find a quantitative assessment regarding its accuracy and speed when it is applied to various types of orbits. In this paper, we would like to report our implementation and assessment of the semi-analytical method, expecting that it would help to estimate its feasibility in the long-term orbit prediction. The quantitative assessment covers the commonly used orbits for the Earth satellites. In some rare and special cases where the performance of our method appears abnormal, we discuss the reasons and possible solutions. We hope our results can provide some useful reference for the similar applications of the semi-analytical method since our method is a relatively common approach in terms of both accuracy and implementation. 相似文献
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With the precise GPS ephemeris and clock error available, the iono- spheric delay is left as the dominant error source in the single-frequency GPS data. Thus, the removal of ionospheric effects is a ma jor prerequisite for an improved orbit reconstruction of LEO satellites based on the single-frequency GPS data. In this paper, the use of Global Ionospheric Maps (GIM) in kine- matic and dynamic orbit determinations for LEO satellites with single-frequency GPS pseudorange measurements is discussed first, and then, estimating the iono- spheric scale factor to remove the ionospheric effects from the C/A-code pseu- dorange measurements for both kinematic and dynamic orbit determinations is addressed. As it is known that the ionospheric delay of space-borne GPS sig- nals is strongly dependent on the orbit altitudes of LEO satellites, we select the real C/A-code pseudorange measurement data of the CHAMP, GRACE, TerraSAR-X and SAC-C satellites with altitudes between 300 km and 800 km as sample data in this paper. It is demonstrated that the approach to eliminating ionospheric effects in C/A-code pseudorange measurements by estimating the ionospheric scale factor is highly effective. Employing this approach, the accu- racy of both kinematic and dynamic orbits can be improved notably. Among those five LEO satellites, CHAMP with the lowest orbit altitude has the most remarkable improvements in orbit accuracy, which are 55.6% and 47.6% for kine- matic and dynamic orbits, respectively. SAC-C with the highest orbit altitude has the least improvements in orbit accuracy accordingly, which are 47.8% and 38.2%, respectively. 相似文献