共查询到18条相似文献，搜索用时 781 毫秒
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近地小行星由于地球的特殊关系为世人所瞩目,对其研究始于５０年代,近年来已成为太阳系动力学中的一个热门课题。全面地介绍了近年来关于近地小行星的研究状况,包括对近地小行星轨道演化的研究的方法和主要结果。 相似文献
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为更明确近地小行星撞击地球威胁的监测预警需求, 提出了"短期威胁小行星"的概念, 即未来100yr内可能对地球造成撞击威胁且等效直径大于10m的近地小行星. 以目前已发现的756颗短期威胁小行星为基础, 分析短期威胁小行星的轨道分布特点, 研究显示其与一般近地小行星的轨道分布存在差异, 短期威胁小行星的轨道半长轴更集中于1au, 轨道面更集中于黄道面. 基于近地小行星的数量模型, 初步建立了短期威胁小行星的数量估计模型, 并预估了未来100yr内存在撞击可能的短期威胁小行星的总体数量. 短期威胁小行星的特定研究对制定近地小行星搜巡监测策略有重要意义. 相似文献
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主要阐述近年来在近地小行星轨道演化研究工作中所获得的一些基本结果，即合理的力学模型和相应的有效算法，并以实际预报算例（近地小行星与地球的交会状态）与有关权威性的结果作了比较，证实这些研究结果确实是可信的。在给出的力学模型中，考虑了所有可能影响近地小行星运动的力学因素，包括各大天体和较大的主带小行星的引力作用、有关天体的扁率影响以及源于太阳引力的后牛顿效应。而在计算方法中，合理地处理了变步长问题和月球位置量这种相对而言的快变化问题，使得数值求解一个高维方程组时，对各天体而言，可采用同一步长进行 积分，避免了求解过程中的复杂性。 相似文献
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针对地基光学监测系统对近地小行星在近太阳方向的监测存在盲区的问题,提出了远距离逆行轨道(Distant Retrograde Orbit,DRO)天基光学平台对近地小行星进行跟踪定轨的方法.通过可视性分析,筛选仿真观测数据,利用美国宇航局喷气推进实验室(Jet Propulsion Laboratory,JPL)公布的小行星初始轨道信息对不同轨道类型的目标天体进行轨道确定,将计算结果与参考轨道对比分析.仿真结果表明:在测量精度2角秒,定轨弧长3年的情况下,DRO平台对仿真算例中所选择的近地小行星的定轨精度可以达到几十公里量级,其中Atira型轨道精度可达10公里以内.由此可见,DRO天基平台对近地小行星具有较好的监测能力,定轨精度能实现对目标小行星的精确跟踪,并对其进行轨道预报. 相似文献
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近地小行星是一类可能对地球安全造成潜在威胁的太阳系小天体, 目前绝大部分的近地小行星是由地基望远镜发现的, 且数目仍在不断增加. 为了对我国未来开展近地小行星发现监测提供参考和借鉴, 利用国际小行星中心公开的数据库对所有近地小行星首次发现时刻的观测资料开展了多维度统计分析. 发现望远镜探测能力的限制会对近地小行星的发现造成选择效应, 导致不同轨道类型近地小行星发现的相对比例逐年变化且与直径有关. 另外, 结合数值模拟获得的轨道数据, 对近地小行星首次发现时的观测场景进行了还原, 获得了发现时刻近地小行星位置在不同天球坐标系的分布, 分析了其分布特征与季节、测站纬度和小行星直径的依赖关系. 最后, 通过分析数据定量考察了太阳、月球和银道面对近地小行星发现的影响, 发现地基望远镜一般难以发现来自太阳方向90$^\circ$范围内直径140m以下的近地小行星, 并且随着小行星直径的减小该限制范围也将变大; 月光污染对近地小行星发现的影响也非常显著, 望月前后几天的观测限制可导致约29%的目标无法被发现, 而且分析表明农历上半月发现的目标一般比下半月发现的更难以被跟踪观测; 银道面特别是银心方向会对近地小行星发现产生影响, 使得黄道面附近存在与季节相关的观测``盲区''. 相似文献
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近地小行星(10302) 1989 ML和(4660) Nereus作为下一代深空探测的候选目标一直备受关注. 在考虑太阳系主要天体的动力学背景下, 通过计算最大Lyapunov指数(MLE)及MEGNO (Mean Exponential Growth factor of Nearby Orbits)指数讨论它们的稳定性. 同时, 对每个小行星, 在其观测误差范围内按多元正态分布各选取1000个克隆粒子, 通过统计分析显示这两个小行星在10万年内可能的运动范围, 给出半长径-偏心率空间中的出现次数分布图, 并统计小行星与地球或其他大行星之间的密近交汇及碰撞的概率. 此外还对这两个小行星的标称轨道进行长期共振、Kozai共振及平运动共振的动力学分析. 综上得出结论, 1989 ML处在平运动共振主导的区域, 发生密近交汇的概率较小, 从而其轨道相对较稳定; 而Nereus处在地球的密近交汇区域, 轨道极不稳定. 相似文献
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近地小行星轨道演化的数值研究与辛算法有效性的探讨 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文采用改进的显式辛算法（symplecticalgorithm）和嵌套的RKF7（8）积分器对43颗已命名（或编号）的近地小行星的轨道演化进行数值研究．在力学模型上,除考虑各大行星的引力振动外,还增加了后牛顿效应,而在算法上则着重探索辛算法在近地小行星轨道演化研究中的应用前景,特别是当小行星与某一大行星靠近时辛算法的有效性．本文的结果可为了解近地小行星的轨道演化状况和对它们进行监测提供可靠的信息． 相似文献
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目标的完备性搜索是开展近地小行星预警和防御的前提. 为量化评价近地小行星观测效能, 提高监测设备使用效率, 提出一种综合望远镜参数和测站天文条件的观测效能评估方法. 以观测目标信噪比作为检测指标, 设定检测条件形成目标检测方法, 定义评价指标用于评估近地小行星观测效能. 再基于近地小行星轨道数据和尺度分布模型, 建立近地小行星轨道数据模拟样本库. 最后选取中国科学院紫金山天文台盱眙观测站和中国科学院国家天文台冷湖观测台址, 仿真分析近地天体望远镜对直径0.01--30km近地小行星的观测效能, 结果表明: 不考虑两观测站年有效观测时间差异, 近地天体望远镜在冷湖观测全尺寸模拟样本的效能比在盱眙提高了5.21倍, 其中对1km以上直径目标的观测效能相当, 对1km以下直径目标的观测效能差异开始显现, 对0.1km以下直径目标冷湖优势更显著. 相似文献
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关于近地小行星轨道演化的初步探索 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文采用改进的显式辛算法和嵌套的PKF7（8）积分器同时对86颗已命名（或编号）的近地小行星的轨道演化进行了数值研究，在103－104年的时间尺度上，给出了这些小行星轨道演化的状况以及它们与几颗大行星靠近的最小距离，特别是与地球接近的最小距离可小于0．01天文单位，甚至可能比月球还更靠近地球． 相似文献
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The Yarkovsky effect, which causes a slow drifting of the orbital elements (mainly the semimajor axis) of km-sized asteroids and meteors, is the weak non-gravitational force experienced by these bodies due to the emission of thermal photons. This effect is believed to play a role in the delivery of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) from the main belt, in the spreading of the orbital elements of asteroid families, and in the orbital evolution of potentially hazardous asteroids.Here we present preliminary results of simulationing indicating that the perturbations induced by the Yarkovsky effect on the positions of some tens of NEAs can be observed by means of the high-precision astrometric observations that will be provided by the ESA mission Gaia. 相似文献
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This article describes a citizen‐science project conducted by the Spanish Virtual Observatory (SVO) to improve the orbits of near‐Earth asteroids (NEAs) using data from astronomical archives. The list of NEAs maintained at the Minor Planet Center (MPC) is checked daily to identify new objects or changes in the orbital parameters of already catalogued objects. Using NEODyS we compute the position and magnitude of these objects at the observing epochs of the 938 046 images comprising the Eigth Data Release of the Sloan Digitised Sky Survey (SDSS). If the object lies within the image bound‐aries and the magnitude is brighter than the limiting magnitude, then the associated image is visually inspected by the project's collaborators (the citizens) to confirm or discard the presence of the NEA. If confirmed, accurate coordinates and, sometimes, magnitudes are submitted to the MPC. Using this methodology, 3226 registered users have made during the first fifteen months of the project more than 167 000 measurements which have improved the orbital elements of 551 NEAs (6% of the total number of this type of asteroids). Even more remarkable is the fact that these results have been obtained at zero cost to telescope time as NEAs were serendipitously observed while the survey was being carried out. This demonstrates the enormous scientific potential hidden in astronomical archives. The great reception of the project as well as the results obtained makes it a valuable and reliable tool for improving the orbital parameters of near‐Earth asteroids. (© 2014 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim) 相似文献
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F. MIGLIORINI A. MORBIDELLI V. ZAPPAL B. J. GLADMAN M. E. BAILEY A. CELLINO 《Meteoritics & planetary science》1997,32(6):903-916
Abstract— A large body of evidence, including the presence of a dynamical family associated with 4 Vesta, suggests that this asteroid might be the ultimate source of both the V-type near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) and howardite, eucrite and diogenite (HED) meteorites. Dynamical routes from Vesta to the inner regions of the solar system are provided by both the 3:1 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter and the V6, secular resonance. For this reason, numerical integrations of the orbits of fictitious Vesta fragments injected in both of these resonances have been performed. At the same time, the orbital evolution of the known V-type NEAs has been investigated. The results indicate that the dynamical half lifetimes of Vesta fragments injected in both the 3:1 and the V6, resonances are rather short ('2 Ma). The present location of the seven known V-type NEAs is better explained by orbital evolutions starting from the v6 secular resonance. The most important result of the present investigation, however, is that we now face what we call the “Vesta paradox.” Roughly speaking, the paradox consists of the fact that the present V-type NEAs appear to be too dynamically young to have originated in the event that produced the family, but they are too big to be plausible second-generation fragments from the family members. The cosmic-ray exposure (CRE) age distribution of HED meteorites also raises a puzzle, since we would expect an overabundance of meteorites with short CRE ages. We propose different scenarios to explain these paradoxes. 相似文献
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M.H.M. MoraisA. Morbidelli 《Icarus》2002,160(1):1-9
We obtain the size and orbital distributions of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) that are expected to be in the 1 : 1 mean motion resonance with the Earth in a steady state scenario. We predict that the number of such objects with absolute magnitudes H<18 and H<22 is 0.65±0.12 and 16.3±3.0, respectively. We also map the distribution in the sky of these Earth coorbital NEAs and conclude that these objects are not easily observed as they are distributed over a large sky area and spend most of their time away from opposition where most of them are too faint to be detected. 相似文献
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Thermal inertia determines the temperature distribution over the surface of an asteroid and therefore governs the magnitude the Yarkovsky effect. The latter causes gradual drifting of the orbits of km-sized asteroids and plays an important role in the delivery of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) from the main belt and in the dynamical spreading of asteroid families. At present, very little is known about the thermal inertia of asteroids in the km size range. Here we show that the average thermal inertia of a sample of NEAs in the km-size range is . Furthermore, we identify a trend of increasing thermal inertia with decreasing asteroid diameter, D. This indicates that the dependence of the drift rate of the orbital semimajor axis on the size of asteroids due to the Yarkovsky effect is a more complex function than the generally adopted D−1 dependence, and that the size distribution of objects injected by Yarkovsky-driven orbital mobility into the NEA source regions is less skewed to smaller sizes than generally assumed. We discuss how this fact may help to explain the small difference in the slope of the size distribution of km-sized NEAs and main-belt asteroids. 相似文献
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O. Vaduvescu M. Popescu I. Comsa A. Paraschiv D. Lacatus A. Sonka A. Tudorica M. Birlan O. Suciu F. Char M. Constantinescu T. Badescu M. Badea D. Vidican C. Opriseanu 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2013,334(7):718-728
The ESO/MPG WFI and the INT WFC wide field archives comprising 330 000 images were mined to search for serendip‐itous encounters of known Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) and Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs). A total of 152 as‐teroids (44 PHAs and 108 other NEAs) were identified using the PRECOVERY software, their astrometry being measured on 761 images and sent to the Minor Planet Centre. Both recoveries and precoveries were reported, including prolonged orbital arcs for 18 precovered objects and 10 recoveries. We analyze all new opposition data by comparing the orbits fitted before and after including our contributions. We conclude the paper presenting “Mega‐Precovery”, a new online service focused on data mining of many instrument archives simultaneously for one or a few given asteroids. A total of 28 instrument archives have been made available for mining using this tool, adding together about 2.5 million images forming the “Mega‐Archive” 相似文献
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The orbital evolution of the two meteorites Příbram and Neuschwanstein on almost identical orbits and also several thousand
clones were studied in the framework of the N-body problem for 5,000 years into the past. The meteorites moved on very similar
orbits during the whole investigated interval. We have also searched for photographic meteors and asteroids moving on similar
orbits. There were five meteors found in the IAU MDC database and six NEAs with currently similar orbits to Příbram and Neuschwanstein.
However, only one meteor 161E1 and one asteroid 2002 QG46 had a similar orbital evolution over the last 2,000 years. 相似文献