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利用时间序列模型预报电离层TEC 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
以IGS(international GPS service)发布的电离层TEC(total electron content)资料为样本,用时间序列模型对全球的电离层总电子含量进行了预报.在时间序列预报模型中,不同的定阶方法导致不同的预报结果;实践证明本文使用的BIC定阶准则较好地实现了电离层总电子含量的预报.结果表明:对10 d左右的预报时间段,时间序列模型的TEC计算结果相对精度高,预报相对精度优于60%的网格点数在总网格点数中所占百分比可达90%以上. 相似文献
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《天文学报》2016,(1)
为了更好地反映钟差特性并提高其预报精度,建立一种能够同时考虑星载原子钟物理特性、钟差周期性变化与随机性变化特点的钟差预报模型.首先采用附有周期项的二次多项式模型进行拟合提取卫星钟差(Satellite Clock Bias,SCB)的趋势项与周期项,然后根据拟合残差的特点采用时间序列ARIMA(Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average)模型对残差进行建模;最后将两种模型的预报结果结合得到最终钟差预报值.使用IGS(International GNSS Service)精密钟差数据进行预报试验,将新方法与二次多项式模型、灰色模型及ARIMA模型进行对比,证明了新方法能够更高精度地预报卫星钟差,且可以一定程度上改善ARIMA存在模型识别与定阶不准的不足. 相似文献
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《天文学报》2017,(2)
最小二乘(Least Squares,LS)与自回归(Auto Regressive,AR)联合(LS+AR)模型在极移预报(polar motion,PM)中存在以下问题:最小二乘拟合的内部残差值较好而LS外推的残差值较大;LS拟合残差序列是非线性的,故根据预报历元前的残差序列建立的AR模型可能并不适用于待预报的残差序列,存在不匹配预报的情况.针对这两个问题,通过以下方法进行解决:首先对LS拟合数据两端点附加约束条件使其固定到LS拟合曲线上,因此在两端点附近的拟合值与观测值十分接近;然后选取与LS外推残差序列变化趋势接近的内推残差序列作为AR模型的建模对象,进行残差预报.通过实例表明该方法能够有效地提高LS+AR模型在短期极移预报的精度.此外,通过与RLS(Robustified Least Squares)+AR、RLS+ARIMA(Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average)和LS+ANN(Artificial Neural Network)模型的预报结果对比,证明了该方法在极移预报中的可行性.实例证明了所提出的方法在短期预报中可以取得良好的预报结果,尤其在1–10d超短期的极移预报上可以获得与国际最好预报精度相当的预报结果. 相似文献
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利用GPS双频观测量可获取电离层总电子含量(Total Electron Content,TEC),以监测区域上空电离层的分布和变化特征,从而可以发现不同尺度的电离层异常。该文采用2004年上海地区GPS综合应用网(SCGAN)以及中国地壳运动监测网络(CMONC)的部分台站的观测,计算得到1年时间序列的TEC数据,来研究长三角地区上空的电离层TEC的变化与活动。应用这些数据,综合利用高斯权函数和滑动平均等几种数据处理方法,重点分析和讨论了长三角地区上空电离层的周日变化、周年变化和季节性变化特性,揭示了电离层冬季异常等现象。同时,通过对1年时间序列TEC进行谱分析,得到了其相应的变化周期。 相似文献
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针对极移复杂的时变特性, 根据混沌相空间坐标延迟重构理论, 提出一种基于Volterra自适应滤波的极移预报方法. 首先, 利用最小二乘拟合算法分离极移序列中的线性趋势项、钱德勒项和周年项, 获得线性极移、钱德勒极移和周年极移的外推值; 其次, 通过C-C关联积分法对最小二乘拟合残差序列进行相空间重构, 并利用小数据量法计算残差序列的最大Lyapunov指数验证其混沌特性, 在此基础上, 构建Volterra自适应滤波器对残差序列进行预测; 最后, 将线性极移、钱德勒极移和周年极移的外推值以及最小二乘拟合残差的预测值相加获得极移最终预报值. 利用国际地球自转服务局(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, IERS)提供的极移数据进行1--60d跨度预报, 并将预报结果分别与国际地球定向参数预报比较竞赛(Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign, EOP PCC)结果和IERS A公报发布的极移预报产品进行对比, 结果表明: 对于1--30d的短期预报, 该方法的预报精度与EOP PCC最优预报方法相当, 当预报跨度超过30d时, 该方法的预报精度低于EOP PCC最优预报方法, 优于参与EOP PCC的其他方法; 与IERS A公报相比, 该方法的短期预报效果较好, 当预报跨度增加时预报精度低于IERS A公报. 预报结果表明该方法更适合于极移短期预报. 相似文献
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本文综述了电离层、对流层中电波折射引起的射电天文观测及卫星测地中的各种误差及各种改正方法和它们的精度。 对流层影响的主要改正方法是实测大气温度、压力等参数,用数学模型计算。电离层影响的改正目前有三种方法:一是实时测量电离层主要参数——电子总含量的变化,然后用数学模型方法改正。二是采用双频同时观测的手段来消除电离层折射的影响。三是采用自校准方法。文中还比较了两种不同的自校准方法——常规自校准方法和多余量自校准方法。 相似文献
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用周期图谱分析方法计算Blazar天体的光变周期 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
对适用于等间隔时间序列的周期图谱分析方法进行了研究,用模拟信号进行了检验,证实了它适用于有噪声的时间序列.并把这种方法应用到类星体3C 279、3C 345,BL Lac天体OJ 287、ON 231的光变周期分析中,得到它们的光变周期分别为7.14年、10.00年、11.76年、6.80年.结果表明用周期图谱分析方法得到的结论和其他文献用Jurkevich方法得到的结论一致.获得的周期对进一步研究Blazar天体的物理机制很有帮助.还分析了窗函数的影响,指出它们的优缺点,便于在实际工作中做出正确选择. 相似文献
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C. M. Andreazza E. P. Marinho P. D. Singh † 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,372(4):1653-1656
The rate coefficients for the formation of carbon monophosphide (CP) and silicon monophosphide (SiP) by radiative association are estimated for temperatures ranging from 300 to 14 100 K. In this temperature range, the radiative association rate coefficients are found to vary from 1.14 × 10−18 to 1.62 × 10−18 cm3 s−1 and from 3.73 × 10−20 to 7.03 × 10−20 cm3 s−1 for CP and SiP, respectively. In both cases, rate coefficients increase slowly with the increase in temperature. 相似文献
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R. Rummel 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2004,94(1-2):103-111
Planetology serves the understanding on the one hand of the solar system and on the other hand, for investigating similarities
and differences, of our own planet. While observational evidence about the outer planets is very limited, substantial datasets
exist for the terrestrial planets. Radar and optical images and detailed models of gravity and topography give an impressive
insight into the history, composition and dynamics of moon and planets. However, there exists still significant lack of data.
It is therefore recommended to equip all future satellite missions to the moon and to planets with full tensor gravity gradiometers
and radar altimeters. 相似文献
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Both Uranus and Neptune are thought to have strong zonal winds with velocities of several 100 m s−1. These wind velocities, however, assume solid-body rotation periods based on Voyager 2 measurements of periodic variations in the planets’ radio signals and of fits to the planets’ magnetic fields; 17.24 h and 16.11 h for Uranus and Neptune, respectively. The realization that the radio period of Saturn does not represent the planet’s deep interior rotation and the complexity of the magnetic fields of Uranus and Neptune raise the possibility that the Voyager 2 radio and magnetic periods might not represent the deep interior rotation periods of the ice giants. Moreover, if there is deep differential rotation within Uranus and Neptune no single solid-body rotation period could characterize the bulk rotation of the planets. We use wind and shape data to investigate the rotation of Uranus and Neptune. The shapes (flattening) of the ice giants are not measured, but only inferred from atmospheric wind speeds and radio occultation measurements at a single latitude. The inferred oblateness values of Uranus and Neptune do not correspond to bodies rotating with the Voyager rotation periods. Minimization of wind velocities or dynamic heights of the 1 bar isosurfaces, constrained by the single occultation radii and gravitational coefficients of the planets, leads to solid-body rotation periods of ∼16.58 h for Uranus and ∼17.46 h for Neptune. Uranus might be rotating faster and Neptune slower than Voyager rotation speeds. We derive shapes for the planets based on these rotation rates. Wind velocities with respect to these rotation periods are essentially identical on Uranus and Neptune and wind speeds are slower than previously thought. Alternatively, if we interpret wind measurements in terms of differential rotation on cylinders there are essentially no residual atmospheric winds. 相似文献
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Daniel Pfenniger 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1998,72(1-2):37-67
An elementary review about stellar and galactic dynamics is presented. Despite involving extremely classical Newtonian physics,
stellar dynamics presents some fundamental difficulties rarely discussed in the literature, such as why the phase space distribution
is assumed to be a smooth function of coordinates. Many systems are found to be unstable over intermediate time-scales, as
more instabilities have been discovered over the years, so the old aim of describing equilibrium stable systems shifts presently
toward understanding evolutive systems. From the linearized variational Boltzmann equation a distinction can be made between
instabilities triggered by the chaotic part of phase space, and instabilities caused by steep gradients in the velocity part
of the distribution function. The new challenges to include evolutive systems can presently only be studied efficiently with
computer techniques. Future studies are likely to involve orders of magnitude more advanced computers in which parallelism
will play a major role.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
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V. A. Shefer 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2002,82(1):19-59
A method of construction of intermediate orbits for approximating the real motion of celestial bodies in the initial part of trajectory is proposed. The method is based on introducing a fictitious attracting centre with a time-variable gravitational parameter. The variation of thisparameter is assumed to obey the Eddington–Jeans mass-variationlaw. New classes of orbits having first-, second-, and third-order tangency to the perturbed trajectory at the initial instant of time are constructed. For planar motion, the tangency increases by one or two orders. The constructed intermediate orbits approximate the perturbed motion better than the osculating Keplerian orbit and analogous orbits of otherauthors. The applications of the orbits constructed in Encke's methodfor special perturbations and in the procedure for predicting themotion in which the perturbed trajectory is represented by a sequenceof short arcs of the intermediate orbits are suggested.The use of the constructed orbits is especially advantageous in the investigation of motion under the action of large perturbations. 相似文献
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We study the temporal variation of subsurface flows of 788 active regions and 978 quiet regions. The vertical-velocity component
used in this study is derived from the divergence of the measured horizontal flows using mass conservation. The horizontal
flows cover a range of depths from the surface to about 16 Mm and are determined by analyzing about five years of GONG high-resolution
Doppler data with ring-diagram analysis. We determine the change in unsigned magnetic flux during the disk passage of each
active region using MDI magnetograms binned to the ring-diagram grid. We then sort the data by their flux change from decaying
to emerging flux and divide the data into five subsets of equal size. The average vertical flows of the emerging-flux subset
are systematically shifted toward upflows compared to the grand average values of the complete data set, whereas the average
flows of the decaying-flux subset show comparably more pronounced downflows especially near 8 Mm. For flux emergence, upflows
become stronger with time with increasing flux at depths greater than about 10 Mm. At layers shallower than about 4 Mm, the
flows might start to change from downflows to upflows, when flux emerges, and then back to downflows after the active regions
are established. The flows in the layers between these two depth ranges show no response to the emerging flux. In the case
of decaying flux, the flows change from strong upflows to downflows at depths greater than about 10 Mm, whereas the flows
do not change systematically at other depths. A cross-correlation analysis shows that the flows in the near-surface and the
deeper layers might change about one day before flux emerges. The flows associated with the quiet regions fluctuate with time
but do not show any systematic variation. 相似文献
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Edward R.D. Scott 《Icarus》2006,185(1):72-82
Thermal models and radiometric ages for meteorites show that the peak temperatures inside their parent bodies were closely linked to their accretion times. Most iron meteorites come from bodies that accreted <0.5 Myr after CAIs formed and were melted by 26Al and 60Fe, probably inside 2 AU. Rare carbon-rich differentiated meteorites like ureilites probably also come from bodies that formed <1 Myr after CAIs, but in the outer part of the asteroid belt. Chondrite groups accreted intermittently from diverse batches of chondrules and other materials over a 4 Myr period starting 1 Myr after CAI formation when planetary embryos may already have formed at ∼1 AU. Meteorite evidence precludes accretion of late-forming chondrites on the surface of early-formed bodies; instead chondritic and non-chondritic meteorites probably formed in separate planetesimals. Maximum metamorphic temperatures in chondrite groups are correlated with mean chondrule age, as expected if 26Al and 60Fe were the predominant heat sources. Because late-forming bodies could not accrete close to large, early-formed bodies, planetesimal formation may have spread across the nebula from regions where the differentiated bodies formed. Dynamical models suggest that the asteroids could not have accreted in the main belt if Jupiter formed before the asteroids. Therefore Jupiter probably reached its current mass >3-5 Myr after CAIs formed. This precludes formation of Jupiter via a gravitational instability <1 Myr after the solar nebula formed, and strongly favors core accretion. Jupiter probably formed too late to make chondrules by generating shocks directly, or indirectly by scattering Ceres-sized bodies across the belt. Nevertheless, shocks formed by gravitational instabilities or Ceres-sized bodies scattered by planetary embryos may have produced some chondrules. The minimum lifetime for the solar nebula of 3-5 Myr inferred from the total spread of CAI and chondrule ages may exceed the median lifetime of 3 Myr for protoplanetary disks, but is well within the 1-10 Myr observed range. Shorter formation times for extrasolar planets may help to explain their unusual orbits compared to those of solar giant planets. 相似文献
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Solar filaments exhibit a range of eruptive-like dynamic activity from the full, or partial, eruption of the filament mass
and surrounding magnetic structure, as a CME, to a fully confined dynamic evolution or “failed” eruption, sometimes producing
a flare but no CME. Additionally, observations of erupting filaments often show a clear helical structure, indicating the
presence of a magnetic flux rope. Dynamic helical structures, in addition to being twisted, frequently show evidence of being
kinked, with the axis of the flux rope exhibiting a large-scale writhe. Motivated by the fact that kinking motions are also
detected in filaments that fail to erupt, we investigate the possible relationship between the kinking of a filament and its
success or failure to erupt. We present an analysis of kinking in filaments and its implications for other filament phenomena
such as the nature of the eruption, eruptive acceleration, and post-eruptive re-formation. We elucidate the relationship between
kinking and the various filament phenomena via a simple physical picture of the forces involved in kinking together with specific
definitions of the types of filament eruption. The present study offers results directly applicable to observations, allowing
a thorough exploration of the implications of the observational relationship between kinking and filament phenomena and provides
new insight for modelers of CME initiation. 相似文献