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1.
We have developed a new approach to modeling the acoustic-gravity wave (AGW) radiation from bolide sources. This first effort involves entry modeling of bolide sources that have available satellite data through procedures developed in ReVelle (Earth Moon Planets 95, 441–476, 2004a; in: A. Milani, G. Valsecchi, D. Vokrouhlicky (eds) NEO Fireball Diversity: Energetics-based Entry Modeling and Analysis Techniques, Near-earth Objects: Our Celestial Neighbors (IAU S236), 2007b). Results from the entry modeling are directly coupled to AGW production through line source blast wave theory for the initial wave amplitude and period at (at 10 blast wave radii and perpendicular to the trajectory). The second effort involves the prediction of the formation and or dominance of the propagation of the atmospheric Lamb, edge-wave composite mode in a viscous fluid (Pierce, J. Acoust. Soc. Amer. 35, 1798–1807, 1963) as a function of the source energy, horizontal range and source altitude using the Lamb wave frequency that was deduced directly during the entry modeling and that is used as a surrogate for the source energy. We have also determined that Lamb wave production by bolides at close range decreases dramatically as either the source energy decreases or the source altitude increases. Finally using procedures in Gill (Atmospheric-Ocean Dynamics, 1982) and in Tolstoy (Wave Propagation, 1973), we have analyzed two simple dispersion relationships and have calculated the expected dispersion for the Lamb edge-wave mode and for the excited, propagating internal acoustic waves. Finally, we have used the above formalism to fully evaluate these techniques for four large bolides, namely: the Tunguska bolide of June 30, 1908; the Revelstoke bolide of March 31, 1965; the Crete bolide of June 6, 2002 and the Antarctic bolide of September 3, 2004. Due to page limitations, we will only present results in detail for the Revelstoke bolide.  相似文献   

2.
In this paper, we will review recent research on numerous aspects of bolide entry into a planetary atmosphere, including such topics as the entry dynamics, energetics, ablation, deceleration, fragmentation, luminosity, mechanical wave generation processes, a total (panchromatic) power budget including differential and integral efficiencies versus time, etc. Fragmentation, triggered by stagnation pressures exceeding the bolide breaking strength, has been subsequently included in either a collective or non-collective wake behavior limit. We have also utilized the differential panchromatic luminous efficiency of ReVelle and Ceplecha (2002) to compute bolide luminosity. In addition we also introduce the concept of the differential and integral acoustic/infrasonic efficiency and generalized it to the case of mechanical wave efficiency including internal atmospheric gravity waves generated during entry. Unlike the other efficiencies which are assumed to be a constant multiple of the luminous efficiency, the acoustic efficiency is calculated independently using a “first principles” approach. All of these topics have been pursued using either a homogeneous or a porous meteoroid model with great success. As a direct result, porosity seems to be a rather good possibility for explaining anomalous meteoroid behavior in the atmosphere. Invited Paper Presented at Meteoroids 2004; Presented at University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada, August 16–20, 2004  相似文献   

3.
We present the infrasonic observations of three large bolides that were observed at numerous International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound arrays on a global scale. First, a simple procedure for the global association of infrasound detections from large infrasound events is outlined. Infrasound signals are associated with large events based on arrival time, backazimuth and uniqueness at a given IMS array. Next, we apply the algorithm to three bolides and investigate some of the factors affecting the detectability of infrasound from large events. Our findings suggest that site-noise effects significantly degrade the capability of the IMS infrasound network, suggesting that more effort is required to reduce ambient site noise. These results have implications for the use of infrasound measurements (in particular those from IMS stations) as a tool for evaluating the global flux of near-Earth objects.  相似文献   

4.
In this paper, we will review recent research on numerous aspects of bolide entry into a planetary atmosphere, including such topics as the entry dynamics, energetics, ablation, deceleration, fragmentation, luminosity, mechanical wave generation processes, a total (panchromatic) power budget including differential and integral efficiencies vs. time, etc. Fragmentation, triggered by stagnation pressures exceeding the bolide breaking strength, has been included with subsequent wake behavior in either a collective or non-collective behavior limit. We have also utilized the differential panchromatic luminous efficiency of ReVelle and Ceplecha (2002c, Proceedings of Asteroids, Comets, Meteors ACM 2002, 29 July–2August, 285–288) to compute bolide luminosity. In addition we also introduce the concept of the differential and integral acoustic/infrasonic efficiency and generalized it to the case of mechanical wave efficiency including internal atmospheric gravity waves generated during entry. Unlike the other efficiencies which are assumed to be a constant multiple of the luminous efficiency, the acoustic efficiency is calculated independently using a 'first principles' approach. All of these topics have been pursued using either a homogeneous or a porous meteoroid model with great success. As a direct result, porosity seems to be a rather good possibility for explaining anomalous meteoroid behavior in the atmosphere.  相似文献   

5.
Abstract— We present the basic differential equations of meteor physics (the single body equations). We solve them numerically including two possible types of fragmentation: into large pieces and into a cluster of small fragments. We have written a Fortran code that computes the motion, ablation and light intensity of a meteoroid at chosen heights, and allows for the ablation and shape density coefficients σ and K, as well as the luminous efficiency τ, to be variable with height/time. We calibrated our fragmentation model (FM) by the best fit to observational values for the motion, ablation, radiation, fragmentation and the terminal masses (recovered meteorites) for the Lost City bolide. The FM can also handle multiple and overlapping meteor flares. We separately define both the apparent and intrinsic values of σ, K, and τ. We present in this paper values of the intrinsic luminous efficiency as function of velocity, mass, and normalized air density. Detailed results from the successful application of the FM to the Lost City, Innisfree, and Benesov bolides are also presented. Results of applying the FM to 15 bolides with very precise observational data are presented in a survey mode (Table 7). Standard deviations of applying our FM to all these events correspond to the precision of the observed values. Typical values of the intrinsic ablation coefficient are low, mostly in the range from 0.004 to 0.008 s2 km?2, and do not depend on the bolide type. The apparent ablation coefficients reflect the process of fragmentation. The bolide types indicate severity of the fragmentation process. The large differences of the “dynamic” and “photometric” mass from numerous earlier studies are completely explained by our FM. The fragmentation processes cannot be modeled simply by large values of the apparent ablation coefficient and of the apparent luminous efficiency. Moreover, our new FM can also well explain the radiation and full dynamics of very fast meteoroids at heights from 200 km to 130 km.  相似文献   

6.
We present study of relationship of GSXR flares with Hα flares, hard X-ray (HXR) bursts, microwave (MW) bursts at 15.4 GHz, type II/IV radio bursts, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), protons flares (>10 MeV) and ground level enhancement (GLE) events we find that about 85.7%, 93%, 97%, 69%, 60%, 11.1%, 79%, 46%, and 23%% GSXR flares are related/associated with observed Hα flares, HXR bursts, MW bursts at 15.4 GHz, type II radio bursts, type IV radio bursts, GLE events, CMEs, halo CMEs, and proton flares (>10 MeV), respectively. In the paper we have studied the onset time delay of GSXR flares with Hα flares, HXR, and MW bursts which shows the during majority GSXR flares SXR emissions start before the Hα, HXR and MW emissions, respectively while during 15–20% of GSXR flares the SXR emissions start after the onset of Hα, HXT and MW emissions, respectively indicating two types of solar flares. The, onset time interval between SXR emissions and type II radio bursts, type IV radio bursts, GLE events CMEs, halo CMEs, and protons flares are 1–15 min, 1–20 min, 21–30 min, 21–40 min, 21–40 min, and 1–4 hrs, respectively. Following the majority results we are of the view that the present investigations support solar flares models which suggest flare triggering first in the corona and then move to chromospheres/ photosphere to starts emissions in other wavelengths. The result of the present work is largely consistent with “big flare syndrome” proposed by Kahler (1982).  相似文献   

7.
Magnetic field extrapolation is an alternative method to study chromospheric and coronal magnetic fields. In this paper, two semi-analytical solutions of force-free fields (Low and Lou in Astrophys. J. 352:343, 1990) have been used to study the errors of nonlinear force-free (NLFF) fields based on force-free factor α. Three NLFF fields are extrapolated by approximate vertical integration (AVI) Song et al. (Astrophys. J. 649:1084, 2006), boundary integral equation (BIE) Yan and Sakurai (Sol. Phys. 195:89, 2000) and optimization (Opt.) Wiegelmann (Sol. Phys. 219:87, 2004) methods. Compared with the first semi-analytical field, it is found that the mean values of absolute relative standard deviations (RSD) of α along field lines are about 0.96–1.19, 0.63–1.07 and 0.43–0.72 for AVI, BIE and Opt. fields, respectively. While for the second semi-analytical field, they are about 0.80–1.02, 0.67–1.34 and 0.33–0.55 for AVI, BIE and Opt. fields, respectively. As for the analytical field, the calculation error of 〈|RSD|〉 is about 0.1∼0.2. It is also found that RSD does not apparently depend on the length of field line. These provide the basic estimation on the deviation of extrapolated field obtained by proposed methods from the real force-free field.  相似文献   

8.
The Theory of Alfven drag (Drell et al. in J Geophys Res 70: 3131–3145 1965; Anselmo and Farinella in Icarus, 58, 182–185 1983) is applied here to show that the existence of a possible solar ring structure at a radial distance of 0.02 AU (~4R ⊙ , R ⊙  = radius of the sun) predicted by earlier authors (Brecher et al. in Nature 282, 50–52 1979; Rawal in Bull. Astr. Soc. India 6, 92–95 1978, Moon Planets 24, 407–414 1981, Moon Planets 31, 175–182 1984, J Astrophys Astr 10, 257–259 1989) may not survive Alfven drag produced during even moderate solar magnetic storms which take place from time to time through the age of the sun, but a possible solar ring structure at a radial distance of 0.13 AU (~27R ⊙ ) (Brecher et al. in Nature 282, 50–52 1979; Rawal in Bull. Astr. Soc. India 6, 92–95 1978, Moon Planets 24, 407–414 1981, Moon Planets 31, 175–182 1984, J Astrophys Astr 10, 257–259 1989) may survive intense Alfven drag produced during even strong magnetic storms of magnetic field value up to 1,000 G.  相似文献   

9.
The acoustic amplitude-yield relationships, including formal errors, for a population of energetic (>0.05 kt) and well-observed bolide events have been investigated. Using various infrasonic signal measurements as a function of range, these data have been calibrated against optical yield estimates from satellite measurements. Correction for the presence of stratospheric winds has also been applied to the observations and is found to be small, suggesting that either scatter is dominated by other variations amongst the fireball population such as differing burst altitudes and greater or lesser amounts of fragmentation or the magnitude of the variability in the stratospheric winds, which can be comparable to or even exceed the strength of the winds themselves. Comparison to similar point source, ground-level nuclear and high explosive airwave data shows that bolide infrasound is consistently lower in amplitude. This downward shift relative to nuclear and HE data is interpreted as due in part to increased weak non-linearity during signal propagation from higher altitudes. This is a likely explanation, since mean estimates of the altitude of maximum ene0rgy deposition along the bolide trajectory was found to be between 20 and 30 km altitude for this fireball population.  相似文献   

10.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2008,249(2):369-380
The sunspot number series at the peak of sunspot activity often has two or three peaks (Gnevyshev peaks; Gnevyshev, Solar Phys. 1, 107, 1967; Solar Phys. 51, 175, 1977). The sunspot group number (SGN) data were examined for 1997 – 2003 (part of cycle 23) and compared with data for coronal mass ejection (CME) events. It was noticed that they exhibited mostly two Gnevyshev peaks in each of the four latitude belts 0° – 10°, 10° – 20°, 20 ° – 30°, and > 30°, in both N (northern) and S (southern) solar hemispheres. The SGN were confined to within latitudes ± 50° around the Equator, mostly around ± 35°, and seemed to occur later in lower latitudes, indicating possible latitudinal migration as in the Maunder butterfly diagrams. In CMEs, less energetic CMEs (of widths < 71°) showed prominent Gnevyshev peaks during sunspot maximum years in almost all latitude belts, including near the poles. The CME activity lasted longer than the SGN activity. However, the CME peaks did not match the SGN peaks and were almost simultaneous at different latitudes, indicating no latitudinal migration. In energetic CMEs including halo CMEs, the Gnevyshev peaks were obscure and ill-defined. The solar polar magnetic fields show polarity reversal during sunspot maximum years, first at the North Pole and, a few months later, at the South Pole. However, the CME peaks and gaps did not match with the magnetic field reversal times, preceding them by several months, rendering any cause – effect relationship doubtful.  相似文献   

11.
In a previous study (Cane and Richardson, J. Geophys. Res. 108(A4), SSH6-1, 2003), we investigated the occurrence of interplanetary coronal mass ejections in the near-Earth solar wind during 1996 – 2002, corresponding to the increasing and maximum phases of solar cycle 23, and provided a “comprehensive” catalog of these events. In this paper, we present a revised and updated catalog of the ≈300 near-Earth ICMEs in 1996 – 2009, encompassing the complete cycle 23, and summarize their basic properties and geomagnetic effects. In particular, solar wind composition and charge state observations are now considered when identifying the ICMEs. In general, these additional data confirm the earlier identifications based predominantly on other solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters. However, the boundaries of ICME-like plasma based on charge state/composition data may deviate significantly from those based on conventional plasma/magnetic field parameters. Furthermore, the much studied “magnetic clouds”, with flux-rope-like magnetic field configurations, may form just a substructure of the total ICME interval.  相似文献   

12.
We performed a detailed analysis of 27 slow coronal mass ejections (CMEs) whose heights were measured in at least 30 coronagraphic images and were characterized by a high quality index (≥4). Our primary aim was to study the radial evolution of these CMEs and their properties in the range 2 – 30 solar radii. The instantaneous speeds of CMEs were calculated by using successive height – time data pairs. The obtained speed – distance profiles [v(R)] are fitted by a power law v = a(R−b) c . The power-law indices are found to be in the ranges a=30 – 386, b=1.95 – 3.92, and c=0.03 – 0.79. The power-law exponent c is found to be larger for slower and narrower CMEs. With the exception of two events that had approximately constant velocity, all events were accelerating. The majority of accelerating events shows a v(R) profile very similar to the solar-wind profile deduced by Sheeley et al. (Astrophys. J. 484, 472, 1997). This indicates that the dynamics of most slow CMEs are dominated by the solar wind drag.  相似文献   

13.
Rahaman et al. (Astrophys. Space. Sci. 331:191–197, 2010) discussed some classical electron models (CEM) in general relativity. Bijalwan (Astrophys. Space. Sci. 334:139–143, 2011) present a general exact solution of the Einstein-Maxwell equations in terms of pressure. We showed that charged fluid solutions in terms of pressure are not reducible to a well behaved neutral counter part for a spatial component of metrice λ . Hence, these solutions represent an electron model in general relativity. We illustrated solutions in terms of pressure briefly with de-Sitter equation of state and charged analogues of Kohler Chao interior solution as a special cases.  相似文献   

14.
The Kuiper-Belt Object (29981) 1999 TD10, classified as a Scattered-Disk Object, has been observed at three different phase angles with the ESO 8.2-m VLT and FORS 1 instrument in polarimetric mode in November and December 2003. These observations have been used to compute the Stokes parameter q, which represents the linear polarization degree. We have also used the previously published photometric observations to improve the R-band phase function. The main conclusions are as follows: (i) a negative linear polarization degree decreasing with phase angle α up to, at least, α=3°, (ii) for α=3°, (iii) a possible color effect between the R and V band, the polarization degree being more negative in R. The R-band polarimetric observations can be explained by the coherent-backscattering mechanism and fitted by a two-component Rayleigh-scatterer model for a spherical small body. The rotation period of 15.382±0.001 h published by Mueller et al. (2004, Icarus 171, 506–515) and Choi et al. (2003, Icarus 165, 101–111) is confirmed. The R-band phase curve provides H=8.35±0.02 and G=−0.25±0.022 parameters with the IAU H–G formalism.Based on observations obtained at the Cerro Paranal observatory of the European Southern Observatory (ESO) in Chile.  相似文献   

15.
We present the first in-depth statistical survey of flare source heights observed by RHESSI. Flares were found using a flare-finding algorithm designed to search the 6 – 10 keV count-rate when RHESSI’s full sensitivity was available in order to find the smallest events (Christe et al. in Astrophys. J. 677, 1385, 2008). Between March 2002 and March 2007, a total of 25 006 events were found. Source locations were determined in the 4 – 10 keV, 10 – 15 keV, and 15 – 30 keV energy ranges for each event. In order to extract the height distribution from the observed projected source positions, a forward-fit model was developed with an assumed source height distribution where height is measured from the photosphere. We find that the best flare height distribution is given by g(h)∝exp (−h/λ) where λ=6.1±0.3 Mm is the scale height. A power-law height distribution with a negative power-law index, γ=3.1±0.1 is also consistent with the data. Interpreted as thermal loop-top sources, these heights are compared to loops generated by a potential-field model (PFSS). The measured flare heights distribution are found to be much steeper than the potential-field loop height distribution, which may be a signature of the flare energization process.  相似文献   

16.
In the present study, the short-term periodicities in the daily data of the sunspot numbers and areas are investigated separately for the full disk, northern, and southern hemispheres during Solar Cycle 23 for a time interval from 1 January 2003 to 30 November 2007 corresponding to the descending and minimum phase of the cycle. The wavelet power spectrum technique exhibited a number of quasi-periodic oscillations in all the datasets. In the high frequency range, we find a prominent period of 22 – 35 days in both sunspot indicators. Other quasi-periods in the range of 40 – 60, 70 – 90, 110 – 130, 140 – 160, and 220 – 240 days are detected in the sunspot number time series in different hemispheres at different time intervals. In the sunspot area data, quasi-periods in the range of 50 – 80, 90 – 110, 115 – 130, 140 – 155, 160 – 190, and about 230 days were noted in different hemispheres within the time period of analysis. The present investigation shows that the well-known “Rieger periodicity” of 150 – 160 days reappears during the descending phase of Solar Cycle 23, but this is prominent mainly in the southern part of the Sun. Possible explanations of these observed periodicities are delivered on the basis of earlier results detected in photospheric magnetic field time series (Knaack, Stenflo, and Berdyugina in Astron. Astrophys. 438, 1067, 2005) and solar r-mode oscillations.  相似文献   

17.
Abstract— During the early morning hours of the night of the peak of the annual Leonid meteor shower on 1998 November 17, a bright fireball (approximately ?12 to ?14 visual magnitude at 100 km in the zenith) was observed over northern New Mexico with visual sightings as far away from Los Alamos as Albuquerque (～150 km to the south of Los Alamos), including direct persistent trail observations at the U. S. A. F. Starfire Optical Range (SOR), which is also near Albuqerque. This event did not produce any sonic boom reports, presumably because of its high altitude. It was also detected locally by an infrared radiometer at Sandia National Laboratory and by an intensified charge-coupled device (CCD) camera located in Placitas, New Mexico. Subsequent investigations of the data from the six infrasound arrays used by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and operated for the Department of Energy as a part of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) Research and Development program for the International Monitoring System (IMS) showed the presence of an infrasonic signal from the proper direction at the correct time for this bolide from two of our six arrays (both located in Los Alamos). The infrasound recordings (i.e., the wave amplitude and period data) indicated that an explosion occurred in the atmosphere at a source height of ～93.5 km (with respect to sea level) or ～90 km with respect to the altitude of Los Alamos, having its origins slightly to the north and west of Los Alamos. Purely geometric solutions from the ground observers reports combined with direct measurements from the CCD camera at Placitas produced a source height of 91 ± 7 km. The signal characteristics analyzed from 0.5 to 3.0 Hz include a total duration of about 3–4 s for a source directed from Los Alamos toward 353.6 ± 0.4° measured from true north at a maximum elevation arrival angle of ～72.7°. The latter was deduced on the basis of the observed signal trace velocities (for the part of the recording with the highest cross-correlation) and ranged from a constant value of about 920–1150 m/s (depending on the window length used in the analysis) for a ray trajectory along a direct refractive path between the source and the Los Alamos arrays. The dominant signal frequency at maximum amplitude at Los Alamos was ～0.71 Hz. These highly correlated signals had a peak to peak, maximum amplitude of ～2.1 microbars (0.21 Pa). Using several methods that incorporate various observed signal characteristics, total distance traveled, etc., our analysis indicates that the bolide probably had a source energy of ～1.14 t (TNT equivalent) or 4.77 × 109 J. This is ～14.1× smaller than the source energy estimate made using the infrasonic, empirical source energy relationship for low-altitude stationary point sources developed in the 1960s by the Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC), Patrick Air Force Base, Florida. This relation was originally developed, however, for much larger source energies and at much longer ranges.  相似文献   

18.
Following the analytical work of Armstrong et al. (Icarus 160:183–196, 2002), we detail an expanded N-body calculation of the direct transfer of terrestrial material to the Moon during a giant impact. By simulating 1.4 million particles over a range of launch velocities and ejecta angles, we have derived a map of the impact velocities, impact angles, and probable impact sites on the moon over the last 4 billion years. The maps indicate that the impacts with the highest vertical impact speeds are concentrated on the leading edge, with lower velocity/higher-angle impacts more numerous on the Moon’s trailing edge. While this enhanced simulation indicates the estimated globally averaged direct transfer fraction reported in Armstrong et al. (Icarus 160:183–196, 2002) is overestimated by a factor of 3–6, local concentrations can reach or exceed the previously published estimate. The most favorable location for large quantities of low velocity terrestrial material is 50 W, 85 S, with 8.4 times more impacts per square kilometer than the lunar surface average. This translates to 300–500 kg km−2, compared to 200 kg km−2 from the previous estimate. The maps also indicate a significant amount of material impacting elsewhere in the polar regions, especially near the South Pole-Aiken basin, a likely target for sample return in the near future. The magnitudes of the impact speeds cluster near 3 km/s, but there is a bimodal distribution in impact angles, leading to 43% of impacts with very low (<1 km/s) vertical impact speeds. This, combined with the enhanced surface density of meteorites in specific regions, increases the likelihood of weakly shocked terrestrial material being identified and recovered on the Moon.  相似文献   

19.
We show for the first time images of solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) viewed using the Heliospheric Imager (HI) instrument aboard the NASA STEREO spacecraft. The HI instruments are wide-angle imaging systems designed to detect CMEs in the heliosphere, in particular, for the first time, observing the propagation of such events along the Sun – Earth line, that is, those directed towards Earth. At the time of writing the STEREO spacecraft are still close to the Earth and the full advantage of the HI dual-imaging has yet to be realised. However, even these early results show that despite severe technical challenges in their design and implementation, the HI instruments can successfully detect CMEs in the heliosphere, and this is an extremely important milestone for CME research. For the principal event being analysed here we demonstrate an ability to track a CME from the corona to over 40 degrees. The time – altitude history shows a constant speed of ascent over at least the first 50 solar radii and some evidence for deceleration at distances of over 20 degrees. Comparisons of associated coronagraph data and the HI images show that the basic structure of the CME remains clearly intact as it propagates from the corona into the heliosphere. Extracting the CME signal requires a consideration of the F-coronal intensity distribution, which can be identified from the HI data. Thus we present the preliminary results on this measured F-coronal intensity and compare these to the modelled F-corona of Koutchmy and Lamy (IAU Colloq. 85, 63, 1985). This analysis demonstrates that CME material some two orders of magnitude weaker than the F-corona can be detected; a specific example at 40 solar radii revealed CME intensities as low as 1.7×10−14 of the solar brightness. These observations herald a new era in CME research as we extend our capability for tracking, in particular, Earth-directed CMEs into the heliosphere.  相似文献   

20.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2007,246(2):471-485
Many methods of predictions of sunspot maximum number use data before or at the preceding sunspot minimum to correlate with the following sunspot maximum of the same cycle, which occurs a few years later. Kane and Trivedi (Solar Phys. 68, 135, 1980) found that correlations of R z(max) (the maximum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R z) with R z(min) (the minimum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R z) in the solar latitude belt 20° – 40°, particularly in the southern hemisphere, exceeded 0.6 and was still higher (0.86) for the narrower belt > 30° S. Recently, Javaraiah (Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc. 377, L34, 2007) studied the relationship of sunspot areas at different solar latitudes and reported correlations 0.95 – 0.97 between minima and maxima of sunspot areas at low latitudes and sunspot maxima of the next cycle, and predictions could be made with an antecedence of more than 11 years. For the present study, we selected another parameter, namely, SGN, the sunspot group number (irrespective of their areas) and found that SGN(min) during a sunspot minimum year at latitudes > 30° S had a correlation +0.78±0.11 with the sunspot number R z(max) of the same cycle. Also, the SGN during a sunspot minimum year in the latitude belt (10° – 30° N) had a correlation +0.87±0.07 with the sunspot number R z(max) of the next cycle. We obtain an appropriate regression equation, from which our prediction for the coming cycle 24 is R z(max )=129.7±16.3.  相似文献   

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