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1.
Low-lying reef islands on the rim of atolls are perceived as particularly vulnerable to the impacts of sea-level rise. Three effects are inferred: erosion of the shoreline, inundation of low-lying areas, and saline intrusion into the freshwater lens. Regional reconstruction of sea-level trends, supplementing the short observational instrumental record, indicates that monthly mean sea level is rising in the eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans. This paper reviews the morphology and substrate characteristics of reef islands on Indo-Pacific atolls, and summarises their topography. On most atolls across this region, there is an oceanward ridge built by waves to a height of around 3 m above MSL; in a few cases these are topped by wind-blown dunes. The prominence of these ridges, together with radiocarbon dating and multi-temporal studies of shoreline position, indicate net accretion rather than long-term erosion on most of these oceanward shores. Less prominent lagoonward ridges occur, but their morphology and continuity are atoll-specific, being a function of the processes operating in each lagoon. Low-lying central areas are a feature of many islands, often locally excavated for production of taro. These lower-lying areas are already subject to inundation, which seems certain to increase as the sea rises. Tropical storms play an important role in the geomorphology of reef islands in those regions where they are experienced. Topographical differences, as well as features such as emergence of the reef flat and the stability of the substrate, mean that islands differ in terms of their susceptibility to sea-level rise. Further assessment of variations in shoreline vulnerability based on topography and substrate could form the basis for enhancing the natural resilience of these islands. 相似文献
2.
Increased melting on glaciers and ice sheets and rising sea level are often mentioned as important aspects of the anticipated greenhouse warming of the earth's atmosphere. This paper deals with the sensitivity of Greenland's ice mass budget and presents a tentative projection of the Greenland component of future sea level rise for the next few hundred years. To do this, the ‘Villach II temperature scenario’ is prescribed,output from a comprehensive mass balance model is used to drive a high-resolution 3-D thermomechanic model of the ice sheet.The mass balance model consists of two parts: the accumulation part is based on presently observed values and is forced by changes in mean anr tempeerature. The ablation model is based on the degree-day method and accounts for daily and annual temperature cycle, a different degree-day factor for ice and snow melting and superimposed ice formation. Under present-day climatic conditions, the following total mass balance results (in ice equivalent per years): 599.3 × 109 m3 of accumulation, 281.7 × 109m3 of runoff assuming a balanced budget, 317.6 × 109m3 of iceberg calving. A 1K uniform warming is then calculated to increase the runoff by 119.5 × 109 m3. Since accumulation also increases by 32 × 109 m3, this leads to reduction of the total mass balance by 887.5 × 109 m3 of ice, corresponding to a sea level rise of 0.22 mm/yr. For temperature increase larger than 2.7 K, runoff, exceeds accumulation, and if ice sheet dynamics were to remain unchanged, this would add an extra amount of 0.8 mmyr to the worl's oceans.Imposing the Villach II scenario (warming up to 4.23 K) and accumulating mass balance changes forward in time (static response) would then result in a global sea level rise of 7.1 cm by 2100 AD, but this figure may go up to as much as 40 cm per century in case the warming is doubled. In a subsequent dynamic model involving the ice flow, the ice sheet is found to produce a counteracting effect by dynamically producing steeper slopes at the margin, thereby reducing the area over which runoff can take place. This effect is particularly apparent in the northeastern part of the ice sheet, and is also more pronounced for the smaller temperature perturbations. Nevertheless, all these experiments certainly highlight the vulnerability of the Greenland ice sheet with respect to a climatic warming. 相似文献
3.
With its small-scale climatic, floristic and geo-ecological differentiation, the island of Fogo is an optimal research area for understanding semi-arid island ecosystems in the marginal tropics. Because of the high variability in precipitation, the archipelago of Cape Verde has a potentially high ecological vulnerability, which is caused mainly by population growth, intensification of agricultural land use and increasing tourism.In this context, a geo-ecological spatial pattern analysis has been conducted for Fogo, including several types of geo-ecological layers like vegetation, elevation, aspect, soil and geology. The different kinds of spatial patterns that are detected can be used as a first tool to display distinctive levels of ecological vulnerability. These levels could constitute a base for sustainable land use planning and the redevelopment of agricultural strategies. 相似文献
4.
虞南华 《中国科学院上海天文台年刊》2006,(1):17-25
海洋潮汐和大气、海洋、海冰之间存在复杂的相互作用,它对地球气候有复杂而深远的影响。海潮对流经大陆沿岸或大陆架的洋流有很强烈的作用。潮汐流产生混合湍动;潮汐耗散和内潮波效应对海洋环流的传输和循环也有一定的影响。1995年前后,使用TOPEX／POSEIDON测高卫星资料。建立了十多个海潮模型。研究表明,1994-1996年期间发展起来的正压波海潮模型在深海的精度为2—3cm,空间分辨率为50km量级,在浅海区域的精度显著下降。近年来运用更加成熟精细的流体动力学理论模型,在数据同化技术中使用时间跨度更长的测高资料,已经建立了一些改进的海潮模型。该文使用验潮站潮汐常数、测高资料以及交叉点资料,评估了6个海潮模型在浅海区域(包括中国海海域)的表现,以应用于今后对海平面的研究。初步分析表明,浅海区域的海平面高度的误差仍然相当显著。要发展海洋潮汐模型需要进一步减小潮汐混淆效应,提高长周期潮汐的精度,尤其在浅海区域。模型的改进必将增进对潮汐现象的认识,促进学科间进行相互融合和相互渗透的研究(例如潮汐摩擦引起的月球自转的长期缓慢减速、地球内部结构的物理学研究等)。 相似文献
5.
Ecological and morphological response of brackish tidal marshland to the next century of sea level rise: Westham Island, British Columbia 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
In response to climatic warming, eustatic sea level has been predicted to rise by about 50 cm in the next century. While feedbacks between vegetation growth and sediment deposition tend to allow marshes to maintain their morphology under a constant rate of sea level rise, recent observations of marsh deterioration suggest that changes in the rate of sea level rise may induce loss of economically and ecologically important marshland. We have developed a three dimensional model of tidal marsh evolution that couples vegetation growth and sediment transport processes including bed accretion and wave erosion. We use the model to simulate the response of marshes and tidal flats along the Fraser River Delta, British Columbia to 100 yr forecasts of sea level change. Under low sea level-rise scenarios, the delta and its marshes prograde slightly, consistent with historical measurements. While accretionary processes greatly mediate the response to increased rates of sea level rise, vegetation zones transgress landward under median and high sea level rise rate scenarios. In these scenarios, low marsh erosion and constriction of high marsh vegetation against a dyke at its landward edge result in a 15–35% loss of marshland in the next century. Several important behavioral changes take place after 2050, suggesting that predictions based on field observations and short term model experiments may not adequately characterize (and sometimes underestimate) long-term change. In particular, the replacement of highly productive high marsh vegetation by less productive low marsh vegetation results in continued reduction of the system's total biomass productivity, even as the rate of loss of vegetated area begins to decline. 相似文献
6.
Elena V. Ivanova Ivar O. Murdmaa Jean-Claude Duplessy Martine Paterne 《Global and Planetary Change》2002,34(3-4)
Paleoceanographic changes since the Late Weichselian have been studied in three sediment cores raised from shelf depressions along a north–south transect across the central Barents Sea. AMS radiocarbon dating offers a resolution of several hundred years for the Holocene. The results of lithological and micropaleontological study reveal the response of the Barents Sea to global climatic changes and Atlantic water inflow. Four evolutionary stages were distinguished. The older sediments are moraine deposits. The destruction of the Barents Sea ice sheet during the beginning of the deglaciation in response to climate warming and sea level rise resulted in proximal glaciomarine sedimentation. Then, the retreat of the glacier front to archipelagoes during the main phase of deglaciation caused meltwater discharge and restricted iceberg calving. Fine-grained distal glaciomarine sediments were deposited from periodic near-bottom nepheloid flows and the area was almost permanently covered with sea ice. The dramatic change in paleoenvironment occurred near the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary when normal marine conditions ultimately established resulting in a sharp increase of biological productivity. This event was diachronous and started prior to 10 14C ka BP in the southern and about 9.2 14C ka in the northern Barents Sea. Variations in sediment supply, paleoproductivity, sea-ice conditions, and Atlantic water inflow controlled paleoenvironmental changes during the Holocene. 相似文献
7.
David E. Pollock 《Global and Planetary Change》1997,14(3-4)
A new theory is proposed to explain global cooling at the onset of Pleistocene glacial periods. Atmospheric CO2 drawdown is considered to be the driving force behind global cooling, brought about by heightened productivity at the equatorial divergences and along continental margins, particularly in upwelling regions. Eutrophication appears to be triggered when global warming during late interglacial periods causes accelerated melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. This would release large reserves of silicate-enriched subglacial meltwaters into the surrounding oceans where entrainment would take place into deep and intermediate currents forming in Antarctic and subantarctic waters. Subsequent advection, mixing and upwelling of silicate-enriched deep and intermediate waters into the coastal zones and open-ocean divergences results in the proliferation of large, rapidly-sinking diatom species with a high affinity for dissolved silicate. These blooms enhance rates of recycling of N and P in upwelling regions and accelerate rates of organic carbon production, export and sequestration in shelf and slope sediments and in the deep sea. The resultant atm. CO2 drawdown initiates global cooling. Consequent expansion of Northern Hemisphere glaciers lowers sea level, while increased temperature and pressure gradients between equatorial and polar regions intensify meridional winds. The former process exposes nutrient-enriched coastal sediments to wave erosion, thereby releasing new nutrient supplies, while the latter process enhances upwelling. The combined effect is to greatly increase rates of org. C production and export from continental margins and further accelerate atm. CO2 drawdown. Glacial-period cooling is also enhanced by a number of other positive feedbacks, including changes in albedo, water vapour and cloud cover. Episodic warming intervals during glacial periods may be related to insolation changes associated with orbital precession and tilt cycles, but processes involved in deglaciation and reversion to the interglacial climatic regime are complex and not yet fully understood. 相似文献
8.
Cristina Milesi Hirofumi Hashimoto Steven W. Running Ramakrishna R. Nemani 《Global and Planetary Change》2005,47(2-4):221
Human domination of ecosystems has been pervasive over the last century, with nearly half of Earth's surface transformed by human actions. It is widely accepted that humans appropriate up to 50% of global net primary production (NPP), the energy base of all the trophic levels on the land surface. Yet, despite the important role of vegetation productivity for defining Earth habitability, the covariation of NPP and human population distribution has not been analyzed in depth. We used recently available satellite-based NPP estimates, along with gridded population at 0.5° resolution, first, to identify the global distribution of human population with reference to average NPP and to the various climatic constraints (temperature, water and cloud cover) that limit NPP, second, to analyze recent trends in global NPP in relation to population trends, and third, to identify populations that are vulnerable to changes in NPP due to interannual variability in climate. Our results indicate that over half of the global human population is presently living in areas with above the average NPP of 490 g C m−2 year−1. By 1998, nearly 56% of global population lived in regions where water availability strongly influences NPP. Per capita NPP declined over much of Africa between 1982 and 1998, in spite of the estimated increases in NPP over the same period. On average, NPP over 40% of the total vegetated land surface has shown significant correlations with ENSO-induced climate variability affecting over 2.8 billion people. 相似文献
9.
J. P. Vallée 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1988,140(1):119-123
Of the various proposed mechanisms to maintain spiral arms in spiral galaxies, three have been supported by observations, statistics, or theories (bar, companion, extended solid-body rotation curve). It is shown here that in the presence of a central bar or oval distirtion to maintain spiral arms, the global magnetic field lines also follow the spiral shape of the arms. Excluding then barred galaxies, it is confirmed that in the presence of a companion galaxy to maintain spiral arms, the global magnetic lines in a spiral galaxy will either follow thespiral shape of the arms (when tides are larger), or else will follow thering shape of the orbit of matter crossing spiral arms (when tides are small). In the presence of an extended solid-body rotation curve to maintain spiral arms within the solid-body rotation region, the global magnetic field lines also follow the spiral shape of the arms.The results above do not favour the hypothesis that a weak intergalactic magnetic field could have been amplified enough by gravitational contraction of a protogalaxy to give rise to the observed strength of galactic magnetic fields. On the contrary, leakage of galactic magnetic fields into intergalactic/cosmological space is expected. 相似文献
10.
Changes in the lower limit of mountain permafrost between 1973 and 2004 in the Khumbu Himal, the Nepal Himalayas 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Kotaro Fukui Yoshiyuki Fujii Yutaka Ageta Katsuhiko Asahi 《Global and Planetary Change》2007,55(4):251-256
Because the Khumbu Himal of the Nepal Himalayas lacks long-term climate records from weather stations, mountain permafrost degradation serves as an important indicator of climate warming. In 1973, the permafrost lower limit was estimated to be 5200–5300 m above sea level (ASL) on southern-aspect slopes in this region. Using ground-temperature measurements, we examined the mountain permafrost lower limit on slopes with the same aspect in 2004. The results indicate that the permafrost lower limit was 5400–5500 m ASL in 2004. The permafrost lower limit was estimated to be 5400 to 5500 m on slopes with a southern aspect in the Khumbu Himal in 1991 using seismic reflection soundings. Thus, it is possible that the permafrost lower limit has risen 100–300 m between 1973 and 1991, followed by a stable limit of 5400 to 5500 m over the last decade. An increase in mean annual air temperature of approximately 0.2 to 0.4 °C from the 1970s to the 1990s has indicated a rise in the permafrost lower limit of 40 to 80 m at the Tibetan Plateau. The rise in the mountain permafrost lower limit in the Khumbu Himal exceeds that of the Tibetan Plateau, suggesting the possibility of greater climate warming in the Khumbu Himal. 相似文献
11.
This paper examines the economic and ethical dimensions of climate policy in light of existing knowledge of the impacts of global warming and the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement. We find that the criterion of economic efficiency, operationalized through cost-benefit analysis, is ill-equipped to cope with the pervasive uncertainties and issues of intergenerational fairness that characterize climate change. In contrast, the concept of sustainable development—that today's policies should ensure that future generations enjoy life opportunities undiminished relative to the present—is a normative criterion that explicitly addresses the uncertainties and distributional aspects of global environmental change. If one interprets the sustainability criterion to imply that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for significant steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 相似文献
12.
Satellite observations of the heliospheric current sheet indicate that the internal structure of sector boundaries is a very complex structure with many directional discontinuities in the magnetic field. This implies that the heliospheric current sheet is not a single surface but a constantly changing layer with a varying number of current sheets. In this paper, we investigate magnetic reconnection caused by the resistive tearing mode instability in non-periodic multiple current sheets by using two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulation. The results show that it is complex unsteady magnetic reconnection. Accompanying the nonlinear development of the tearing mode, the width of each magnetic island in multiple current sheets increases with time, and this leads to new magnetic reconnection. At the same time, the width of each current sheet increases, and the current intensity decreases gradually. Finally, the reverse current disappears, and a big magnetic island is formed in the central region. This process is faster when the separation between the current sheets is smaller. We suggest that the occurrence of multiple directional discontinuities observed at sector boundary crossings in the heliosphere may be associated with the magnetic islands and plasmoids caused by magnetic reconnection in multiple current sheets. 相似文献
13.
The response of the Earth's global mean vertical atmospheric temperature structure to large increases in the atmospheric CO2 concentration was examined using a 1-D radiative-convective atmospheric model. It was found that the greenhouse warming of the terrestrial surface can be strongly inhibited by the development of a more isothermal, moister and higher troposphere than at present. The saturation of the strong CO2 infrared bands for high CO2 concentrations further inhibits the greenhouse warming to such an extent that a runaway greenhouse fuelled only by a rise in the atmospheric CO2 is not possible. However, a continuously rising solar-constant does eventually lead to a runaway. 相似文献
14.
Philip L. Woodworth 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2004,94(1-2):93-102
Global sea level rise will present a major scientific, environmental and socio-economic challenge during the 21st century.
This paper reviews the main oceanographic and geophysical processes which contribute to sea level change, with particular
emphasis on the ability of space gravity missions to contribute to an enhancement of our understanding of the various processes,
and ultimately to a better understanding of sea level change itself. Of special importance is the need to understand better
the ocean circulation, and the contribution of ocean thermal expansion to sea level change. 相似文献
15.
16.
The effect of mass balance variations on changes in surface elevation of the Greenland ice sheet is examined in connection with the rise in sea level that will be caused by increased melting. Changes in surface elevation of several metres (of either sign) can occur in the ablation area of the ice sheet over a period of a few years as a result of random ablation forcing without being evidence of change in mean climate. Similar, but smaller, changes can occur in the accumulation area due to accumulation forcing. The ablation area of the ice sheet probably thickened from the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s as a result of lower ablation in that period but thinned again in the late 1980s as a result of higher ablation then. There is no evidence of any present trend of increased melting. Future climate warming will involve an accelerated thinning of the ablation area that could be detected in 1–2 decades against the background of natural fluctuations in surface elevation. 相似文献
17.
Land fraction and the solar energy at the top of the atmosphere (solar constant) may have been significantly lower early in Earth's history. It is likely that both of these factors played some important role in the climate of the early earth. The climate changes associated with a global ocean(i.e. no continents) and reduced solar constant are examined with a general circulation model and compared with the present-day climate simulation. The general circulation model used in the study is the NCAR CCM with a swamp ocean surface. First, all land points are removed in the model and then the solar constant is reduced by 10% for this global ocean case.Results indicate that a 4 K increase in air temperature occurs with global ocean simulation compared to the control. When solar constant is reduced by 10% under global ocean conditions a 23 K decrease in air temperature is noted. The global ocean warms much of the troposphere and stratosphere, while a reduction in the solar constant cools the troposphere and stratosphere. The largest cooling occurs near the surface with the lower solar constant.Global mean values of evaporation, water vapor amounts, absorbed solar radiation and the downward longwave radiation are increased under global ocean conditions, while all are reduced when the solar constant is lowered. The global ocean simulation produces sea ice only in the highest latitudes. A frozen planet does not occur when the solar constant is reduced—rather, the ice line settles near 30° of latitude. It is near this latitude that transient eddies transport large amounts of sensible heat across the ice line acting as a negative feedback under lower solar constant conditions keeping sea ice from migrating to even lower latitudes.Clouds, under lower solar forcing, also act as a negative feedback because they are reduced in higher latitudes with colder atmospheric temperatures allowing additional solar radiation to reach the surface. The overall effect of clouds in the global ocean is to act as a positive feedback because they are slightly reduced thereby allowing additional solar radiation to reach the surface and increase the warming caused by the removal of land. The relevance of the results to the “Faint-Young Sun Paradox” indicates that reduced land fraction and solar forcing affect dynamics, heat transport, and clouds. Therefore the associated feedbacks should be taken into account in order to understand their roles in resolving the “Faint-Young Sun Paradox”. 相似文献
18.
K. Muni Krishna 《Global and Planetary Change》2009,65(1-2):12-16
The anomalously strong cyclonic activity in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) during the recent years led to a controversy about the impact of global warming on cyclonic activity in the NIO Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) plays an important role in the formation of tropical cyclones (TC) over the NIO during summer monsoon season, but in the recent year it is decreasing. This is because of higher warming on the equatorial side of the TEJ than on the northern side, although on both sides a significant warming trend is seen. This warming seems to be a part of the general warming trend known to be occurring since mid 1970s. The vertical wind shear shows a positive correlation with the number of severe storms suggesting that a decrease in easterly shear is favourable for the formation of severe storms. Here I show that the sea surface temperature change over a long period is a key parameter to control the vertical wind shear over the NIO, an important quantity for cyclone activity. The stronger warming of the tropical North Indian Ocean during recent years drove reduced vertical wind shear Thus if the present decreasing trend of TEJ intensity continues, which is highly probable in view of presently occurring green-house warming, there is a strong likelihood of the formation of tropical cyclones of hurricane intensity even during the summer monsoon. Presently the intense systems are known to form only in the pre and post-monsoon seasons, when the vertical wind shear is small. 相似文献
19.
H.W. Gretton 《Planetary and Space Science》1973,21(1):97-111
It is shown how the density of electric currents flowing in a horizontal conducting slab (the sea) may be calculated by B.G. Galerkin's method of moments, when a uniform electric field acts in the slab. The slab is uniform except for a hole, symmetrical about a vertical axis (an island). The cross-section of the hole may be arbitrary. Electric current streamlines are drawn for an island whose shape is a frustum of a cone. The magnetic field of the disturbing currents is numerically computed using successive over-relaxation. These results are compared with a two dimensional model which is a modification of the model due to Ashour and Chapman (1965). It is shown that introducing the vertical current component in the sea affects the magnetic field at the surface of the island by only a few per cent of the total magnetic field. The computer model is applied to the study of the island effect on Oshima and Jarvis Islands. The computed results for Oshima Island explain the observed enhancement of Zat some points and the reversal, in fact, of Z at other points on the island. 相似文献
20.
A. Cazenave K. Dominh S. Guinehut E. Berthier W. Llovel G. Ramillien M. Ablain G. Larnicol 《Global and Planetary Change》2009,65(1-2):83-88
From the IPCC 4th Assessment Report published in 2007, ocean thermal expansion contributed by ～ 50% to the 3.1 mm/yr observed global mean sea level rise during the 1993–2003 decade, the remaining rate of rise being essentially explained by shrinking of land ice. Recently published results suggest that since about 2003, ocean thermal expansion change, based on the newly deployed Argo system, is showing a plateau while sea level is still rising, although at a reduced rate (～ 2.5 mm/yr). Using space gravimetry observations from GRACE, we show that recent years sea level rise can be mostly explained by an increase of the mass of the oceans. Estimating GRACE-based ice sheet mass balance and using published estimates for glaciers melting, we further show that ocean mass increase since 2003 results by about half from an enhanced contribution of the polar ice sheets – compared to the previous decade – and half from mountain glaciers melting. Taking also into account the small GRACE-based contribution from continental waters (< 0.2 mm/yr), we find a total ocean mass contribution of ～ 2 mm/yr over 2003–2008. Such a value represents ～ 80% of the altimetry-based rate of sea level rise over that period. We next estimate the steric sea level (i.e., ocean thermal expansion plus salinity effects) contribution from: (1) the difference between altimetry-based sea level and ocean mass change and (2) Argo data. Inferred steric sea level rate from (1) (～ 0.3 mm/yr over 2003–2008) agrees well with the Argo-based value also estimated here (0.37 mm/yr over 2004–2008). Furthermore, the sea level budget approach presented in this study allows us to constrain independent estimates of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) correction applied to GRACE-based ocean and ice sheet mass changes, as well as of glaciers melting. Values for the GIA correction and glacier contribution needed to close the sea level budget and explain GRACE-based mass estimates over the recent years agree well with totally independent determinations. 相似文献