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This study evaluates the uncertainty involved in the determination of the flash flood guidance(FFG) of the flash flood warning system(FFWS) for a small mountainous region(FFWS_MR)in Korea. The sensitivity is evaluated both at each step to determine the FFG and for all steps together. The results show that the relative difference of the FFG is about 50% of the current system, most of which involves the channel width. Especially, the use of some specific empirical equations to estimate the major parameters results in a considerable amount of the relative difference of the FFG. In addition, though only four basins were field-surveyed, it is found that the indirect estimation of the major parameters always introduces some amount of additional uncertainty. In conclusion, accurate estimation of the major parameters must be the most important procedure to derive an accurate FFG, among which the channel cross-section at the exit of the basin lies at the center. 相似文献
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Chang-Hoi HO Joo-Hong KIM Hyeong-Seog KIM Woosuk CHOI Min-Hee LEE Hee-Dong YOO Tae-Ryong KIM Sangwook PARK 《大气科学进展》2013,30(5):1260-1274
Recently, the National Typhoon Center (NTC) at the Korea Meteorological Administration launched a track-pattern-based model that predicts the horizontal distribution of tropical cyclone (TC) track density from June to October. This model is the first approach to target seasonal TC track clusters covering the entire western North Pacific (WNP) basin, and may represent a milestone for seasonal TC forecasting, using a simple statistical method that can be applied at weather operation centers. In this note, we describe the procedure of the track-pattern-based model with brief technical background to provide practical information on the use and operation of the model. The model comprises three major steps. First, long-term data of WNP TC tracks reveal seven climatological track clusters. Second, the TC counts for each cluster are predicted using a hybrid statistical-dynamical method, using the seasonal prediction of large-scale environments. Third, the final forecast map of track density is constructed by merging the spatial probabilities of the seven clusters and applying necessary bias corrections. Although the model is developed to issue the seasonal forecast in mid-May, it can be applied to alternative dates and target seasons following the procedure described in this note. Work continues on establishing an automatic system for this model at the NTC. 相似文献
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Kim Y Cho S Kang HD Kim W Lee HR Doh SH Kim K Yun SG Kim DS Jeong GY 《Marine pollution bulletin》2006,52(6):659-665
The mineralogical effect on the (137)Cs reaction with marine sediment has not been systematically studied yet, even though illite has been known to adsorb Cs preferentially on its frayed edge sites in a low Cs concentration. Ninety-three marine sediment samples were collected near Yangnam, Korea for quantitative X-ray-diffraction (XRD), gamma-ray, and total organic carbon (TOC) analysis. Illite content was in the range of 0-23 wt.% and those of (137)Cs and TOC were minimum detectable activity (MDA) approximately 7.19 Bq/kg-dry and approximately 3.32%, respectively. The illite content in the marine sediment showed a good relationship with the (137)Cs content (R(2)=0.69), but with an increase in the illite content, the relationship became less linear. This trend can be clearly shown in two groups of samples with different size fractions (< and >5Mdvarphi). For the samples of larger particle sizes (low contents of illite), the relationship is linear, but for the samples of the smaller particle sizes (high illite content) it is less linear with a decreased slope, indicating that increase in illite content does not significantly contribute to the fixation of (137)Cs in marine sediment. Rather, the TOC has a more linear relationship with (137)Cs content with no slope change in all particle size ranges. This may indicate that humic materials in marine sediment block the access of (137)Cs to the frayed edge site and reduces the adsorption of (137)Cs on illite and that the organic materials in marine sediment play more important roles in adsorbing Cs than illite. 相似文献
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The accumulation of radiocesium in coarse marine sediment: effects of mineralogy and organic matter 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The controlling factors affecting the accumulation of (137)Cs in marine sediment have not been investigated in detail, especially in coarse grained sediment. Eighty eight coarse marine sediment samples near Wuljin, Korea, were characterized by quantitative X-ray-diffraction (XRD), gamma-ray, and total organic carbon (TOC) analysis. Those factors were then compared. The grain size was in the range of -0.48 to 3.6Mdphi corresponding to sand grains. TOC content was in the range of 0.06-1.75%, and the concentration of (137)Cs was 相似文献
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正1.Overview SPARC(Stratosphere-Troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate)is one of the core projects of the World Climate Research Program(WCRP),coordinating international efforts to address relevant issues in climate and climate prediction via better understanding of the stratosphere-troposphere system.SPARC is a broad umbrella body that 相似文献
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P. BROWN D. PACK W. N. EDWARDS D. O. REVELLE B. B. YOO R. E. SPALDING E. TAGLIAFERRI 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2004,39(11):1781-1796
Abstract— The fireball accompanying the Park Forest meteorite fall (L5) was recorded by ground‐based videographers, satellite systems, infrasound, seismic, and acoustic instruments. This meteorite shower produced at least 18 kg of recovered fragments on the ground (Simon et al. 2004). By combining the satellite trajectory solution with precise ground‐based video recording from a single site, we have measured the original entry velocity for the meteoroid to be 19.5 ± 0.3 km/s. The earliest video recording of the fireball was made near the altitude of 82 km. The slope of the trajectory was 29° from the vertical, with a radiant azimuth (astronomical) of 21° and a terminal height measured by infrared satellite systems of 18 km. The meteoroid's orbit has a relatively large semi‐major axis of 2.53 ± 0.19 AU, large aphelion of 4.26 ± 0.38 AU, and low inclination. The fireball reached a peak absolute visual magnitude of ?22, with three major framentation episodes at the altitudes of 37, 29, and 22 km. Acoustic recordings of the fireball airwave suggest that fragmentation was a dominant process in production of sound and that some major fragments from the fireball remained supersonic to heights as low as ?10 km. Seismic and acoustic recordings show evidence of fragmentation at 42, 36, 29, and 17 km. Examination of implied energies/initial masses from all techniques (satellite optical, infrasound, seismic, modeling) leads us to conclude that the most probable initial mass was (11 ± 3) × 103 kg, corresponding to an original energy of ?0.5 kt TNT (2.1 times 1012 J) and a diameter of 1.8 m. These values correspond to an integral bolometric efficiency of 7 ± 2%. Early fragmentation ram pressures of <1 MPa and major fragmentations occurring with ram pressures of 2–5 MPa suggest that meter‐class stony near‐Earth asteroids (NEAs) have tensile strengths more than an order of magnitude lower than have been measured for ordinary chondrites. One implication of this observation is that the rotation period for small, fast‐rotating NEAs is likely to be >30 seconds. 相似文献
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Chang-Hoi Ho Woosuk Choi Jinwon Kim Maeng-Ki Kim Hee-Dong Yoo 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(4):395-403
A number of studies in the past two decades have attempted to find the relationship between the precipitation in Korea and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on various time scales. Comprehensive analyses of station precipitation data in Korea for the 61-year period, 1954-2014, in this study show that the effects of ENSO on the seasonal precipitation in Korea are practically negligible. The correlation between summer precipitation and ENSO is insignificant regardless of the intensity, type (e.g., eastern-Pacific or central-Pacific), and stage (e.g., developing, mature, or decaying) of ENSO. Somewhat meaningful correlation between ENSO and precipitation in Korea occurs only in the ENSO-developing fall. Because summer rainfall accounts for over half of the annual total and fall is a dry season in Korea, the overall effects of ENSO on precipitation in Korea are practically nonexistent. 相似文献
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