基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测     

李建新  刘小生  肖钢  周文  刘仁志 《大地测量与地球动力学》2020,40(6):577-580

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。  相似文献   

Determination of the regional deformation rates of Shanghai and Kashima VLBI stations based on ITRF97     

Zhi-gen Yang  Wen-yao Zhu  C. K. Shum  Feng-chun Shu   《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2002,26(4):303-502

The vertical deformation rates (VDRs) and horizontal deformation rates (HDRs) of Shanghai VLBI station in China and Kashima and Kashima34 VLBI stations in Japan were re-analysed using the baseline length change rates from Shanghai to 13 global VLBI stations, and from Kashima to 27 stations and from Kashima34 to 12 stations, based on the NASA VLBI global solution glb1123 (Ma, 1999). The velocity vectors of the global VLBI stations were referred to the ITRF97 reference frame, and the Eulerian vectors of different models of plate motion were used for comparative solutions. The VDR of Shanghai station is estimated to be −1.91±0.56 mm/yr, and those of Kashima and Kashima34 stations, −3.72±0.74mm/yr and −8.81±0.84mm/yr, respectively. The difference between the last two was verified by further analysis. Similar estimates were also made for the Kokee, Kauai and MK_VLBA VLBI stations in mid-Pacific.  相似文献   

未来的国际天球参考架     

金文敬  李东明  唐正宏  王叔和 《紫金山天文台台刊》2003,(1)

本文简述了国际天球参考架的发展历史和现在射电参考架的现状—基准源选择的标准和参考架的稳定性。描述了地面上光学观测在依巴谷参考架的维持和加密的一系列工作。介绍由天体测量卫星GAIA和SIM给出的天球参考架可能逵到的精度。详述了在今后十年中地面天体测量的作用以及正在开展有关天球参考架的研究课题 ,同时也列出了我国正在和即将开展天体测量的几个研究课题  相似文献   

菏泽市地质灾害现状与防治          下载免费PDF全文

张本进  徐淑和  黄文峰  张洪波 《山东国土资源》2003,19(5):26-27,31

菏泽市地质灾害类型主要为地震、地面塌陷、地面沉降、地裂缝、砂土液化、土地盐渍化及地氟病等，其发育与分布受地质构造、水文地质条件的控制以及气象、人类活动等因素的影响。就其分布、危害、致灾原因等做了分析，并提出了防治建议和对策。  相似文献   

鱼卡煤田大煤沟组高分辨率层序地层特征及聚煤规律   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

白生海  田景春  肖玲  张翔 《地层学杂志》2008,32(4)

利用高分辨率层序地层学理论和技术方法,综合地震、测井、岩芯和煤质资料对柴达木盆地北缘鱼卡煤田中下侏罗统大煤沟组地层河湖三角洲沉积体系进行高分辨率层序地层学分析,从中识别出短期、中期、长期3个级别的基准面旋回层序,划分出向上"变深"非对称型、向上"变浅"非对称型及对称型3种短期基准面旋回基本结构类型。依据等时地层对比法则进行不同级次基准面旋回层序的联井对比,建立了大煤沟组的等时地层格架,在等时地层格架内进行了煤层对比,并在等时地层格架内分析了聚煤规律。  相似文献   

火试金法测定铜精矿中金含量结果的不确定度评定   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

江水英  肖化云  吴声东  吴波  秦云和 《岩矿测试》2008,27(4):299-301

对火试金法测定铜精矿中金含量的结果进行不确定度评定。分析了铜精矿样品称量、铜精矿样品的不均匀性和配料处理,以及金粒称量等因素对金含量测量结果不确定度的影响,并得出火试金法测量铜精矿中金含量的扩展不确定度。  相似文献   

冈底斯驱龙斑岩铜钼矿床的岩浆侵位中心和矿化中心:破裂裂隙和矿化强度证据   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7  

肖波  李光明  秦克章  李金祥  赵俊兴  刘小兵  夏代祥  吴兴炳  彭震威 《矿床地质》2008,27(2):200-208

驱龙斑岩铜钼矿床是迄今为止在西藏冈底斯成矿带上发现的规模最大的铜矿床.文章根据对驱龙矿区各类岩石破裂裂隙的野外实测数据,结合矿区已有钻孔品位资料,分别绘制了矿区地表破裂裂隙等值线图、走向投影图及梅花图、钻孔5 000 m海拔标高水平切面Cu、Mo品位等值线图.研究结果表明,驱龙斑岩铜钼矿床的岩石中破裂裂隙相当发育,连成一片,没有明显的多个高值中心,空间上破裂裂隙呈放射状产出;5 000 m海拔标高水平切面显示Cu、Mo矿化较强、较均匀,矿化呈面状,为典型的由单一斑岩体侵位造成的中心式矿化特征.据破裂裂隙和Cu、Mo矿化空间分布,可确定驱龙矿区岩浆中心和矿化中心均位于钻孔405、1205、801、809所围成的矩形区域附近.  相似文献   

Isotopic studies of leaf water. Part 1: A physically based two-dimensional model for pine needles     

Yong Shu  Eric S. Posmentier  Anthony M. Faiia 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2008,72(21):5175-5188

Understanding of isotopic variations in leaf water is important for reconstruction of paleoclimate and assessment of global biochemical processes. We report here a study of isotopic distributions within a single needle of two pine species, Pinus resinosa Ait and Pinus strobes L., with the objective of understanding how isotopic compositions of leaf water are controlled by environmental and physiological variables. A 2D model was developed to simulate along-leaf isotopic variations and bulk leaf water isotopic compositions. In addition to variables common to all leaf water isotopic models, this 2D model also takes into account the specific geometry and dimensions of pine needles and the isotopic transport in xylem and mesophyll. The model can successfully simulate oxygen isotopic variations along a single needle and averaged over a leaf (bulk leaf water). The simulations suggest that isotopic composition of the bulk leaf water does not always depend only upon the average transpiration rate, which in turn raises questions about using leaf water isotopic values to estimate transpiration rates. An unsuccessful attempt to simulate along-needle hydrogen isotopic variations suggests that certain unknown biological process(es) may not have been incorporated into our 2D model, and if so, it calls for a reevaluation of all other models for hydrogen isotopic simulations of leaf water since they too lack these processes.Existing leaf water isotopic models are reviewed in this work. In particular, we evaluate the most frequently used model, the stomatal boundary layer model (also referred to as the Craig-Gordon model). We point out that discrepancy between the boundary layer model and the measured bulk leaf water seems to depend upon relative humidity. Using our 2D model, we show that this humidity dependency is a result of an interplay between environmental and physiological conditions: if the transpiration rate of plant leaves decreases with increasing relative humidity, our 2D model can reproduce the pattern of isotopic discrepancy between boundary layer model predictions and observations, enabling us to understand better the reason behind this discrepancy.  相似文献   

两千年来黑河流域水资源平衡估算与下游水环境演变驱动分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

肖生春  肖洪浪 《冰川冻土》2008,30(5)

利用地方史志、历史地理、树木年轮和近代器测记录相关的黑河流域历史时期人口变动、水土资源开发利用、下游湖泊变化、流域水资源和气候变化等资料, 通过对比上游出山水资源量、中游人类活动水资源利用量和下游湖泊面积变化, 在千年-百年时间尺度上对流域水资源平衡进行了估算, 并分析了历史时期各阶段下游湖泊水环境和天然绿洲演变过程和驱动机制. 研究结果表明: 在黑河流域, 气候变化条件下的上游山区水资源总量和中游走廊平原区绿洲人类活动用水后下泄的水资源量, 决定了下游水环境演变过程;在两千年来显现出不同历史阶段的流域水资源平衡模式和下游水环境演变特征, 以及气候变化和人类活动在不同历史时期的耦合驱动机制.  相似文献   

江苏潮滩沉积物激光粒度仪与移液管-筛析分析结果的对比     

仝长亮  高抒 《沉积学报》2008,26(1):46-53

激光粒度仪的广泛应用带来了与历史数据的对比问题,因此需要建立激光粒度仪与早期分析结果之间的关系。根据江苏海岸潮滩沉积物样品的激光粒度仪和移液管-筛析法分析,对粒度参数、粒度组分等进行了对比,对两种方法的差异进行了分析。结果表明,对于江苏潮滩沉积物粒度参数中平均粒径的激光粒度仪与移液管-筛析分析结果之间有良好的线性关系;筛分法测得的粗颗粒物质较激光法偏少,而移液管法法测得的细颗粒物质较激光法偏多;将样品分类之后再进行两种方法所获粒度参数的回归分析,相关性得以提高,说明不同粒度组成的沉积物对分析结果的对比有不同的影响。两种方法之间的换算关系不仅与研究区域有关,而且与沉积物本身的粒度组成有关。  相似文献