基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测     

李建新  刘小生  肖钢  周文  刘仁志 《大地测量与地球动力学》2020,40(6):577-580

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。  相似文献   

High-frequency monitoring of hydrological and biogeochemical fluxes in forested catchments of southern Chile     

Cristián Frêne  Juan J. Armesto  Freddy Véliz  Fernando D. Alfaro  Kathleen C. Weathers 《水文研究》2021,35(5):e14175

The variability of rainfall-dependent streamflow at catchment scale modulates many ecosystem processes in wet temperate forests. Runoff in small mountain catchments is characterized by a quick response to rainfall pulses which affects biogeochemical fluxes to all downstream systems. In wet-temperate climates, water erosion is the most important natural factor driving downstream soil and nutrient losses from upland ecosystems. Most hydrochemical studies have focused on water flux measurements at hourly scales, along with weekly or monthly samples for water chemistry. Here, we assessed how water and element flows from broad-leaved, evergreen forested catchments in southwestern South America, are influenced by different successional stages, quantifying runoff, sediment transport and nutrient fluxes during hourly rainfall events of different intensities. Hydrograph comparisons among different successional stages indicated that forested catchments differed in their responses to high intensity rainfall, with greater runoff in areas covered by secondary forests (SF), compared to old-growth forest cover (OG) and dense scrub vegetation (CH). Further, throughfall water was greatly nutrient enriched for all forest types. Suspended sediment loads varied between successional stages. SF catchments exported 455 kg of sediments per ha, followed by OG with 91 kg/ha and CH with 14 kg/ha, corresponding to 11 rainfall events measured from December 2013 to April 2014. Total nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) concentrations in stream water also varied with rainfall intensity. In seven rainfall events sampled during the study period, CH catchments exported less nutrients (46 kg/ha TN and 7 kg/ha TP) than SF catchments (718 kg/ha TN and 107 kg/ha TP), while OG catchments exported intermediate sediment loads (201 kg/ha TN and 23 kg/ha TP). Further, we found significant effects of successional stage attributes (vegetation structure and soil physical properties) and catchment morphometry on runoff and sediment concentrations, and greater nutrients retention in OG and CH catchments. We conclude that in these southern hemisphere, broad-leaved evergreen temperate forests, hydrological processes are driven by multiple interacting phenomena, including climate, vegetation, soils, topography, and disturbance history.  相似文献   

The isotopic signature of monsoon conditions,cloud modes,and rainfall type          下载免费PDF全文

Costijn Zwart  Niels C. Munksgaard  Alain Protat  Naoyuki Kurita  Dionisia Lambrinidis  Michael I. Bird 《水文研究》2018,32(15):2296-2303

This work provides a comprehensive physically based framework for the interpretation of the north Australian rainfall stable isotope record (δ¹⁸O and δ²H). Until now, interpretations mainly relied on statistical relationships between rainfall amount and isotopic values on monthly timescales. Here, we use multiseason daily rainfall stable isotope and high resolution (10 min) ground‐based C‐band polarimetric radar data and show that the five weather types (monsoon regimes) that constitute the Australian wet season each have a characteristic isotope ratio. The data suggest that this is not only due to changes in regional rainfall amount during these regimes but, more importantly, is due to different rain and cloud types that are associated with the large scale circulation regimes. Negative (positive) isotope anomalies occurred when stratiform rainfall fractions were large (small) and the horizontal extent of raining areas were largest (smallest). Intense, yet isolated, convective conditions were associated with enriched isotope values whereas more depleted isotope values were observed when convection was widespread but less intense. This means that isotopic proxy records may record the frequency of which these typical wet season regimes occur. Positive anomalies in paleoclimatic records are most likely associated with periods where continental convection dominates and convection is sea‐breeze forced. Negative anomalies may be interpreted as periods when the monsoon trough is active, convection is of the oceanic type, less electric, and stratiform areas are wide spread. This connection between variability of rainfall isotope anomalies and the intrinsic properties of convection and its large‐scale environment has important implications for all fields of research that use rainfall stable isotopes.  相似文献   

Muon density measurements with the KASCADE central detector     

《Astroparticle Physics》2002,16(4):183-386

Frequency distributions of local muon densities in high-energy extensive air showers (EAS) are presented as signature of the primary cosmic ray energy spectrum in the knee region. Together with the gross shower variables like shower core position, angle of incidence, and the shower sizes, the KASCADE experiment is able to measure local muon densities for two different muon energy thresholds. The spectra have been reconstructed for various core distances, as well as for particular subsamples, classified on the basis of the shower size ratio N_μ/N_e. The measured density spectra of the total sample exhibit clear kinks reflecting the knee of the primary energy spectrum. While relatively sharp changes of the slopes are observed in the spectrum of EAS with small values of the shower size ratio, no such feature is detected at EAS of large N_μ/N_e ratio in the energy range of 1–10 PeV. Comparing the spectra for various thresholds and core distances with detailed Monte Carlo simulations the validity of EAS simulations is discussed.  相似文献   

On the accretion geometry of Cyg X-1 in the low/hard state     

F. Eugenio Barrio  Chris Done  Sergei Nayakshin 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,342(2):557-563

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Warm gas kinematics in shell galaxies     

R. Rampazzo  H. Plana  M. Longhetti  P. Amram  J. Boulesteix  J.-L. Gach  O. Hernandez 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,343(3):819-830

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Deuterium fractionation on interstellar grains studied with the direct master equation approach     

Tatiana Stantcheva  Eric Herbst 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,340(3):983-988

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The emission distribution in RR Pictoris     

L. Schmidtobreick  C. Tappert  I. Saviane 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,342(1):145-150

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Laboratory kinetics of C₂H radical reactions with ethane, propane, and n-butane at T = 96-296 K: implications for Titan     

James E. Murphy  Stephen R. Leone 《Icarus》2003,163(1):175-181

The kinetics of the reactions of C₂H radical with ethane (k₁), propane (k₂), and n-butane (k₃) are studied over the temperature range of T = 96-296 K with a pulsed Laval nozzle apparatus that utilizes a pulsed laser photolysis-chemiluminescence technique. The C₂H decay profiles in the presence of both the alkane reactant and O₂ are monitored by the CH(A²Δ) chemiluminescence tracer method. The results, together with available literature data, yield the following Arrhenius expressions: k₁(T) = (0.51 ± 0.06) × 10⁻¹⁰ exp[(−76 ± 30)K/T] cm³ molecule⁻¹ s⁻¹ (T = 96-800 K), k₂(T) = (0.98 ± 0.32) × 10⁻¹⁰exp[(−71 ± 60)K/T] cm³ molecule⁻¹ s⁻¹ (T = 96-361 K), and k₃(T) = (1.23 ± 0.26) × 10⁻¹⁰ cm³ molecule⁻¹ s⁻¹ (T = 96-297 K). At T = 296 K, k₁ is measured as a function of total pressure and has little or no pressure dependence. The results from this work support a direct hydrogen abstraction mechanism for the title reactions. Implications to the atmospheric chemistry of Titan are discussed.  相似文献   

The effects of topographically-controlled thermal tides in the martian upper atmosphere as seen by the MGS accelerometer     

Paul Withers  S.W Bougher 《Icarus》2003,164(1):14-32

Mars Global Surveyor accelerometer observations of the martian upper atmosphere revealed large variations in density with longitude during northern hemisphere spring at altitudes of 130-160 km, all latitudes, and mid-afternoon local solar times (LSTs). This zonal structure is due to tides from the surface. The zonal structure is stable on timescales of weeks, decays with increasing altitude above 130 km, and is dominated by wave-3 (average amplitude 22% of mean density) and wave-2 (18%) harmonics. The phases of these harmonics are constant with both altitude and latitude, though their amplitudes change significantly with latitude. Near the South Pole, the phase of the wave-2 harmonic changes by 90° with a change of half a martian solar day while the wave-3 phase stays constant, suggesting diurnal and semidiurnal behaviour, respectively. We use a simple application of classical tidal theory to identify the dominant tidal modes and obtain results consistent with those of General Circulation Models. Our method is less rigorous, but simpler, than the General Circulation Models and hence complements them. Topography has a strong influence on the zonal structure.  相似文献