Vulnerability of buildings to debris flow impact   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

M. Jakob  D. Stein  M. Ulmi 《Natural Hazards》2012,60(2):241-261

Quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) for landslide hazards are increasingly being executed to determine an unmitigated level of risk and compare it with risk tolerance criteria set by the local or federal jurisdiction. This approach allows urban planning with a scientific underpinning and provides the tools for emergency preparedness. Debris-flow QRAs require estimates of the hazard probability, spatial and temporal probability of impact (hazard assessment) and vulnerability of the elements at risk. The vulnerability term is perhaps the most difficult to estimate confidently because (a) human death in debris flows is most commonly associated with building damage or collapse and is thus an indirect consequence and (b) the type and scale of building damage is very difficult to predict. To determine building damage, an intensity index (I _DF) was created as the product of maximum expected flow depth d and the square of the maximum flow velocity v (I _DF = dv ²). The I _DF surrogates impact force and thus correlates with building damage. Four classes of building damage were considered ranging from nuisance flood/sedimentation damage to complete destruction. Sixty-six well-documented case studies in which damage, flow depth and flow velocity were recorded or could be estimated were selected through a search of the global literature, and I _DF was plotted on a log scale against the associated damage. As expected, the individual damage classes overlap but are distinctly different in their respective distributions and group centroids. To apply this vulnerability model, flow velocity and flow depth need to be estimated for a given building location and I _DF calculated. Using the existing database, a damage probability (P _DF) can then be computed. P _DF can be applied directly to estimate the likely insurance loss or associated loss of life. The model presented here should be updated with more case studies and is therefore made openly available to international researchers who can access it at .  相似文献   

Earthquake Modelling at the Country Level Using Aggregated Spatio-Temporal Point Processes   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

M. N. M. van Lieshout  A. Stein 《Mathematical Geosciences》2012,44(3):309-326

The goal of this paper is to derive a hazard map for earthquake occurrences in Pakistan from a catalogue that contains spatial coordinates of shallow earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or larger aggregated over calendar years. We test relative temporal stationarity by the KPSS statistic and use the inhomogeneous J-function to test for inter-point interactions. We then formulate a cluster model, and de-convolve in order to calculate the hazard map, and verify that no particular year has an undue influence on the map. Within the borders of the single country, the KPSS test did not show any deviation from homogeneity in the spatial intensities. The inhomogeneous J-function indicated clustering that could not be attributed to inhomogeneity, and the analysis of aftershocks showed some evidence of two major shocks instead of one during the 2005 Kashmir earthquake disaster. Thus, the spatial point pattern analysis carried out for these data was insightful in various aspects and the hazard map that was obtained may lead to improved measures to protect the population against the disastrous effects of earthquakes.  相似文献   

余震密度随距离的衰减不代表动态应力触发过程     

K.R.-Dinger  R.S.Stein  S.Toda  魏志恒  冯蔚 《世界地震译丛》2011,(3)

分辨多数余震和后续主震是由静态应力触发(Stein,1999;Todaetal,2005;Parsons,2002)还是动态应力触发(Hilletal,1993;kilb,2003;Brodsky and Prejean,2005;Gomberg and Johnson,2005;Hill and Prejean,2007),对理解地震内在作用和预测地震危险性是有必要的(Freed,2005)。Felzer和Brodsky(2006)分析了2≤M<3和3≤M<4级主震后5min内余震的空间分布情况,发现距主震50km范围内M≥2余震具有特定的幂律衰减关系,且衰减曲线的斜率为-1.35。据此,他们认为余震随距离的衰减只能用动态触发来解释。基于上述假设我们进行了一系列的检验,但没有一个可通过检验,进而,本文中对这种衰减关系提出了另外一种解释。在距离2≤M<3主震300m以外的地方,主震前5min内的地震活动性衰减与主震后5min内的衰减没有显著的区别,表明主震对它静态触发区域以外的地方没有影响。表征余震基本特性的大森随时间衰减关系在距离主震10km以外的地方是不存在的。最后,发现在主震波前未到达之前的余震中发现了...  相似文献   

Numerical modeling of cyclic mobility based on fuzzy-set concepts in plasticity theory     

Yu Bao  Stein Sture 《Computers and Geotechnics》2011

In this paper, the application of an efficient, transparent and accurate kinematic-cyclic constitutive model based on the fuzzy-set concepts and incremental plasticity theory is presented to show its capability in modeling cyclic mobility of saturated granular soil. The nature and kinematic mechanism of the membership functions in the fuzzy-set constitutive model are illustrated. The model’s capability of modeling soil dilatancy is investigated. Important features of volume change and pore water pressure build-up related to soil cyclic mobility are captured. The formulation of the proposed model is relatively simple and it can be readily implemented in finite element codes. The enhanced fuzzy-set model is capable of simulating ground motion problems particularly related to cyclic mobility, soil liquefaction, and spreading behavior.  相似文献   

Black dimensional stones: geology, technical properties and deposit characterization of the dolerites from Uruguay   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Manuela Morales Demarco  Pedro Oyhantçabal  Karl-Jochen Stein  Siegfried Siegesmund 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2011,63(7-8):1879-1909

Dimensional stones with a black color occupy a prominent place on the international market. Uruguayan dolerite dikes of andesitic and andesitic–basaltic composition are mined for commercial blocks of black dimensional stones. A total of 16 dikes of both compositions were studied and samples collected for geochemical and petrographical analysis. Color measurements were performed on different black dimensional stones in order to compare them with the Uruguayan dolerites. Samples of the two commercial varieties (Absolute Black and Moderate Black) were obtained for petrophysical analysis (e.g. density, porosity, uniaxial compressive strength, tensile strength, etc.). Detailed structural analyses were performed in several quarries. Geochemistry and petrography determines the intensity of the black color. The Uruguayan dolerite Absolute Black is the darkest black dimensional stone analyzed in this study. The petrophysical properties of Uruguayan dolerites make them one of the highest quality black dimensional stones. Structural analyses show that five joint sets have been recognized: two sub-vertical joints, one horizontal and two diagonal. These joint sets are one of the most important factors that control the deposits, since they control the block size distribution and the amount of waste material.  相似文献   

Ichnological data as a useful tool for deep-sea environmental characterization: a brief overview and an application to recognition of small-scale oxygenation changes during the Cenomanian�CTuronian anoxic event     

Francisco J. Rodr��guez-Tovar  Alfred Uchman 《Geo-Marine Letters》2011,31(5-6):525-536

The oceanic anoxic event at the Cenomanian?CTuronian transition (OAE-2) is a worldwide phenomenon related with variations in atmosphere?Cocean dynamics. This event coincides with significant changes in the palaeoenvironment determining marine mass extinction affecting numerous groups of organisms. Ichnological analysis of the Cenomanian?CTuronian boundary interval has been conducted in three selected sections from different ecological and depositional settings in the western Tethys. Indeed, a brief overview of existing knowledge in this domain highlights increasing recognition of the usefulness of trace fossils in the characterization of even minor-scale deep-sea environmental changes linked to sea-level dynamics. At the study sites, variations in ichnological features, including trace fossil composition, tiering patterns and ichnofabrics, can be related to fluctuations in bottom- and pore-water oxygenation during the Cenomanian?CTuronian interval. In the Barnasiówka section (Polish Outer Carpathians), changes between oxic/dysoxic??characterized by Chondrites, Planolites and even Thalassinoides??and euxinic conditions, without trace fossils or only with Chondrites, can be explained by variations in gravity flows influencing the benthic habitat. In the El Chorro and Hedionda sections (Betic Cordillera), longer anoxic intervals during the OAE-2, characterized by the absence of trace fossils, are interrupted by shorter dysaerobic and aerobic sub-events associated with Chondrites, Palaeophycus, Planolites, Thalassinoides, Trichichnus and Zoophycos, but showing significant differences between these two sections related to the palaeogeographically differentiated influence of upwelling conditions.  相似文献   

26Al‐26Mg isotope systematics of the first solids in the early solar system     

Noriko T. Kita  Qing‐Zhu Yin  Glenn J. MacPherson  Takayuki Ushikubo  Benjamin Jacobsen  Kazuhide Nagashima  Erika Kurahashi  Alexander N. Krot  Stein B. Jacobsen 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2013,48(8):1383-1400

High‐precision bulk aluminum‐magnesium isotope measurements of calcium‐aluminum‐rich inclusions (CAIs) from CV carbonaceous chondrites in several laboratories define a bulk ²⁶Al‐²⁶Mg isochron with an inferred initial ²⁶Al/²⁷Al ratio of approximately 5.25 × 10^?5, named the canonical ratio. Nonigneous CV CAIs yield well‐defined internal ²⁶Al‐²⁶Mg isochrons consistent with the canonical value. These observations indicate that the canonical ²⁶Al/²⁷Al ratio records initial Al/Mg fractionation by evaporation and condensation in the CV CAI‐forming region. The internal isochrons of igneous CV CAIs show a range of inferred initial ²⁶Al/²⁷Al ratios, (4.2–5.2) × 10^?5, indicating that CAI melting continued for at least 0.2 Ma after formation of their precursors. A similar range of initial ²⁶Al/²⁷Al ratios is also obtained from the internal isochrons of many CAIs (igneous and nonigneous) in other groups of carbonaceous chondrites. Some CAIs and refractory grains (corundum and hibonite) from unmetamorphosed or weakly metamorphosed chondrites, including CVs, are significantly depleted in ²⁶Al. At least some of these refractory objects may have formed prior to injection of ²⁶Al into the protosolar molecular cloud and its subsequent homogenization in the protoplanetary disk. Bulk aluminum and magnesium‐isotope measurements of various types of chondrites plot along the bulk CV CAI isochron, suggesting homogeneous distribution of ²⁶Al and magnesium isotopes in the protoplanetary disk after an epoch of CAI formation. The inferred initial ²⁶Al/²⁷Al ratios of chondrules indicate that most chondrules formed 1–3 Ma after CAIs with the canonical ²⁶Al/²⁷Al ratio.  相似文献   

Early Palaeozoic deep subduction of continental crust in the Kyrgyz North Tianshan: evidence from Lu–Hf garnet geochronology and petrology of mafic dikes     

Yamirka Rojas-Agramonte  Daniel Herwartz  Antonio García-Casco  Alfred Kröner  Dmitriy V. Alexeiev  Reiner Klemd  Stephan Buhre  Matthias Barth 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2013,166(2):525-543

High-pressure and ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) eclogite-bearing metamorphic assemblages in the North Tianshan of Kyrgyzstan are known from the Aktyuz and Makbal areas, where eclogites and garnet amphibolites are associated with continental rocks such as granitoid gneisses in Aktyuz and shallow-water clastic (passive margin?) metasediments in Makbal. We present the first Lu–Hf isotope data for an eclogite and two garnet amphibolite samples from the two metamorphic terranes which, combined with petrological analysis, tightly constrain the age of high-pressure metamorphism in the Kyrgyz North Tianshan. A five-point isochron for an Aktyuz eclogite sample provides a Lu–Hf age of 474.3 ± 2.2 Ma, and a four-point isochron on a Makbal sample corresponds to 470.1 ± 2.5 Ma. A prograde, subduction-related path is inferred for both samples with peak P–T conditions ranging from 1.4 to 1.6 GPa and 610–620 °C. A further Makbal sample provided a significantly older Lu–Hf age of 486 ± 5.4 Ma, most likely due to late alteration in the sample (late addition of unradiogenic Hf). We conclude that garnet growth in all three samples occurred around ca. 474 Ma and that these rocks likely experienced UHP metamorphism contemporaneously. Our results support previous geochronological evidence for an Early Ordovician collision belt in the North Tianshan and allow refinement of a tectonic model involving subduction of thinned continental crust to considerable depth along the margin of a small microcontinent.  相似文献   

The building blocks of continental crust: Evidence for a major change in the tectonic setting of continental growth at the end of the Archean     

Kent C. Condie  Alfred Kröner 《Gondwana Research》2013,23(2):394-402

Oceanic arcs are commonly cited as primary building blocks of continents, yet modern oceanic arcs are mostly subducted. Also, lithosphere buoyancy considerations show that oceanic arcs (even those with a felsic component) should readily subduct. With the exception of the Arabian–Nubian orogen, terranes in post-Archean accretionary orogens comprise < 10% of accreted oceanic arcs, whereas continental arcs compose 40–80% of these orogens. Nd and Hf isotopic data suggest that accretionary orogens include 40–65% juvenile crustal components, with most of these (> 50%) produced in continental arcs.Felsic igneous rocks in oceanic arcs are depleted in incompatible elements compared to average continental crust and to felsic igneous rocks from continental arcs. They have lower Th/Yb, Nb/Yb, Sr/Y and La/Yb ratios, reflecting shallow mantle sources in which garnet did not exist in the restite during melting. The bottom line of these geochemical differences is that post-Archean continental crust does not begin life in oceanic arcs. On the other hand, the remarkable similarity of incompatible element distributions in granitoids and felsic volcanics from continental arcs is consistent with continental crust being produced in continental arcs.During the Archean, however, oceanic arcs may have been thicker due to higher degrees of melting in the mantle, and oceanic lithosphere would be more buoyant. These arcs may have accreted to each other and to oceanic plateaus, a process that eventually led to the production of Archean continental crust. After the Archean, oceanic crust was thinner due to cooling of the mantle and less melt production at ocean ridges, hence, oceanic lithosphere is more subductable. Widespread propagation of plate tectonics in the late Archean may have led not only to rapid production of continental crust, but to a change in the primary site of production of continental crust, from accreted oceanic arcs and oceanic plateaus in the Archean to primarily continental arcs thereafter.  相似文献   

A first deep seismic survey in the Sea of Marmara: Deep basins and whole crust architecture and evolution     

Mireille Laigle  Anne Becel  Batrice de Voogd  Alfred Hirn  Tuncay Taymaz  Serdar Ozalaybey  Members of SEISMARMARA Leg Team 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2008,270(3-4):168-179

Increased source strength, streamer length and dense spatial coverage of seismic reflection profiles of the SEISMARMARA Leg 1 allow to image the deep structure of the marine North Marmara Trough (NMT) on the strike-slip North Anatolian Fault (NAF) west of the destructive Izmit 1999 earthquake. A reflective lower crust and the Moho boundary are detected. They appear upwarped on an E-W profile from the southern Central Basin eastwards, towards more internal parts of the deformed region. Thinning of the upper crust could use a detachment suggested from an imaged dipping intracrustal reflector that would allow upper crustal material to be dragged from beneath it and above the lower crust, accounting for the extensional component but also southwest motion of the southern margin of the NMT. Sections across the eastern half of the NMT, crossing the Cinarcik and Imrali basins, reveal several faults that are active reaching into the basement and have varying strike and proportions of normal and strike-slip displacement. They might be viewed as petals of a large scale negative flower-structure that spreads over a width of 30 km at surface and is rooted deeper in the lithosphere. Under the Central Basin a very thick sediment infill is revealed and its extensional bounding faults are active and imaged as much as 8 km apart down to 6 km depth. We interpret them as two deep-rooted faults encompassing a foundering basement block, rather than being merely pulled-apart from a jog in a strike-slip above a décollement. The deep-basin lengthening would account for only a modest part of the proposed 60 km finite motion since 4 Myr along the same direction oblique to the NMT that sidesteps the shear motion from its two ends. Thus differential motion occurred much beyond the deep basins, like subsidence involving the NMT bounding faults and the intracrustal detachments. The complex partitioned motion localized on active faults with diverse natures and orientations is suggested to represent the overburden deformation induced from horizontal plane simple shear occurring in depth at lithospheric scale, and in front of the North Anatolian Fault when it propagated through the region.  相似文献