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701.
Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
702.
Geoffrey M. Morrison Sonia Yeh Anthony R. Eggert Christopher Yang James H. Nelson Jeffery B. Greenblatt Raphael Isaac Mark Z. Jacobson Josiah Johnston Daniel M. Kammen Ana Mileva Jack Moore David Roland-Holst Max Wei John P. Weyant James H. Williams Ray Williams Christina B. Zapata 《Climatic change》2015,131(4):545-557
703.
Dominique Benielli Edward Polehampton Rosalind Hopwood Ana Belén Griñón Marín Trevor Fulton Peter Imhof Tanya Lim Nanyao Lu Gibion Makiwa Nicola Marchili David Naylor Locke Spencer Bruce Swinyard Ivan Valtchanov Matthijs van der Wiel 《Experimental Astronomy》2014,37(2):357-367
The Herschel SPIRE Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS) performs spectral imaging in the 447–1546 GHz band. It can observe in three spatial sampling modes: sparse mode, with a single pointing on sky, or intermediate or full modes with 1 and 1/2 beam spacing, respectively. In this paper, we investigate the uncertainty and repeatability for fully sampled FTS mapping observations. The repeatability is characterised using nine observations of the Orion Bar. Metrics are derived based on the ratio of the measured intensity in each observation compared to that in the combined spectral cube from all observations. The mean relative deviation is determined to be within 2 %, and the pixel-by-pixel scatter is ~ 7 %. The scatter increases towards the edges of the maps. The uncertainty in the frequency scale is also studied, and the spread in the line centre velocity across the maps is found to be ~ 15 km s ? 1. Other causes of uncertainty are also discussed including the effect of pointing and the additive uncertainty in the continuum. 相似文献
704.
Atmospheric moisture budget and its regulation of the summer (June–July–August) precipitation over the Southeastern United State (SE U.S.) were examined during 1948–2007 using PRECipitation REConstruction over Land and multiple reanalysis datasets. The analysis shows that the interannual variation of SE U.S. summer precipitation can be largely explained by the leading Empirical Orthogonal Function mode showing a spatially homogenous sub-continental scale pattern. Consequently, areal-averaged precipitation was investigated to focus on the large-scale rainfall changes over the SE U.S. The wavelet analysis identifies an increased 2–4 year power spectrum in recent 30 years (1978–2007), suggesting an intensification of the interannual variability. Analysis of the atmospheric moisture budget indicates that the increase in precipitation variability is mainly caused by moisture transport, which exhibits a similar increase in the 2–4 year power spectrum for the same period. Moisture transport, in turn, is largely controlled by the seasonal mean component rather than the subseasonal-scale eddies. Furthermore, our results indicate that dynamic processes (atmospheric circulation) are more important than thermodynamic processes (specific humidity) in regulating the interannual variation of moisture transport. Specifically, the North Atlantic Subtropical High western ridge position is found to be a primary regulator, with the ridge in the northwest (southwest) corresponding to anomalous moisture divergence (convergence) over the SE U.S. Changes in moisture transport consistent with the increased frequency of these two ridge types in recent 30 years favor the intensification of summer precipitation variability. 相似文献
705.
A changing climate and more frequent extreme weather events pose challenges to the oil and gas sector. Identifying how these changes will affect oil and gas extraction, transportation, processing, and delivery, and how these industries can adapt to or mitigate any adverse impacts will be vital to this sector’s supply security. This work presents an overview of the sector’s vulnerability to a changing climate. It addresses the potential for Natech hazards and proposes risk reduction measures, including mitigation and adaptation options. Assessment frameworks to ensure the safety of people, the environment, and investments in the oil and gas sector in the face of climate change are presented and their limitations discussed. It is argued that a comprehensive and systemic analysis framework for risk assessment is needed. The paper concludes that climate change and extreme weather events represent a real physical threat to the oil and gas sector, particularly in low-lying coastal areas and areas exposed to extreme weather events. The sector needs to take climate change seriously, assess its own vulnerability, and take appropriate measures to prevent or mitigate any potentially negative effects. 相似文献
706.
Carlos L. Liesa Antonio M. Casas-Sainz Marcos Aurell José L. Simón Ana R. Soria 《Basin Research》2023,35(1):295-335
Many works in the last decades underline the role of evaporites, not just as a conditioning factor but as the engine for subsidence and eventually basin inversion. The western Mediterranean alpine ranges are being investigated in this regard because of the presence of discontinuous units of Permian to Triassic evaporites, deposited in the western Tethys basins. This work presents a thorough analysis of two particular structures (Cañada Vellida and Miravete anticlines) in the intraplate Maestrazgo basin (eastern Iberian Chain, Spain) in which evidence to support their reinterpretation as salt-driven structures have been recently reported. Our analysis includes (i) a comprehensive stratigraphic and structural study of the folds along their entire trace, (ii) the compilation of thickness and distribution of evaporite–bearing and supraevaporite units, paying special attention to changes in the thickness of units in relation to anticlines, and (iii) the study of fault patterns, sometimes in relation to the mechanical stratigraphy. All three aspects are also documented and discussed on a regional scale. The new data and interpretations reported here reinforce the extensional origin of the Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous basins, and the role of regional extensional tectonics as the responsible for the development of first-order syn-sedimentary normal fault zones driving the formation and evolution of sub-basins. These basins were subsequently inverted and deformed, including the formation of complex, box-geometry anticlines that, in their turn, controlled deposition in Cenozoic basins. The review of the arguments that support the alternative of salt tectonics for the origin of such anticlines has allowed us to delve into the sedimentary and tectonic evolution of the inverted extensional basins and to propose a specific model for the development of these faulted anticlines. The role of salt levels and other interlayered detachments in the structuring of sedimentary basins and their inversion is also pondered. The observations in the eastern Iberian Chain reported here have implications to assess ongoing reinterpretations in terms of salt tectonics in other alpine basins and ranges of the western Mediterranean. 相似文献
707.
Paula C.S. Carvalho Ana M.R. Neiva Maria M.V.G. Silva Eduardo A. Ferreira da Silva 《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2014
Waters from abandoned Sb-Au mining areas have higher Sb (up to 2138 μg L−1), As (up to 1252 μg L−1) and lower Al, Zn, Li, Ni and Co concentrations than those of waters from the As-Au mining area of Banjas, which only contain up to 64 μg L−1 As. In general, Sb occurs mainly as SbO3− and As H2AsO4−. In general, waters from old Sb-Au mining areas are contaminated in Sb, As, Al, Fe, Cd, Mn, Ni and NO2−, whereas those from the abandoned As-Au mining area are contaminated in Al, Fe, Mn, Ni, Cd and rarely in NO2−. Waters from the latter area, immediately downstream of mine dumps are also contaminated in As. In stream sediments from Sb-Au and As-Au mining areas, Sb (up to 5488 mg kg−1) and As (up to 235 mg kg−1) show a similar behaviour and are mainly associated with the residual fraction. In most stream sediments, the As and Sb are not associated with the oxidizable fraction, while Fe is associated with organic matter, indicating that sulphides (mainly arsenopyrite and pyrite) and sulphosalts containing those metalloids and metal are weathered. Arsenic and Sb are mainly associated with clay minerals (chlorite and mica; vermiculite in stream sediments from old Sb-Au mining areas) and probably also with insoluble Sb phases of stream sediments. In the most contaminated stream sediments, metalloids are also associated with Fe phases (hematite and goethite, and also lepidocrocite in stream sediments from Banjas). Moreover, the most contaminated stream sediments correspond to the most contaminated waters, reflecting the limited capacity of stream sediments to retain metals and metalloids. 相似文献
708.
709.
We derive a new formulation for the compositional compressible two-phase flow in porous media. We consider a liquid–gas system with two components: water and hydrogen. The formulation considers gravity, capillary effects, and diffusivity of each component. The main feature of this formulation is the introduction of the global pressure variable that partially decouples the system equations. To formulate the final system, and in order to avoid primary unknowns changing between one-phase and two-phase zones, a second persistent variable is introduced: the total hydrogen mass density. The derived system is written in terms of the global pressure and the total hydrogen mass density. The system is capable of modeling the flows in both one and two-phase zones with no changes of the primary unknowns. The mathematical structure is well defined: the system consists of two nonlinear parabolic equations, the global pressure equation, and the total hydrogen mass density equation. The derived formulation is fully equivalent to the original one. Numerical simulations show ability of this new formulation to model efficiently the phase appearance and disappearance. 相似文献
710.
da Silva DA Buzitis J Krahn MM Bícego MC Pires-Vanin AM 《Marine pollution bulletin》2006,52(2):175-183
This study reports the analysis of polycyclic aromatic compound (PAC) metabolites, as biomarkers of exposure to PACs in marine environment. PAC metabolites were measured in bile samples from 14 species of demersal fish caught in the São Sebastião Channel (SSC), SE Brazilian coastline. Naphthalene (NPH) equivalents, phenanthrene (PHN) equivalents, and benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) equivalents were quantified using a reverse-phase high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with fluorescence detection method. For all samples, the means (±standard deviation, n = 37) of concentrations obtained for NPH, PHN, and BaP equivalents were, respectively, 290,000 ± 200,000 ng/g, 18,000 ± 14,000 ng/g, and 970 ± 1900 ng/g. These results indicate recent exposure of these fish to PACs in their environment. In addition, two species (Cyclichthys spinosus and Prionotus nudigula) of fish were analyzed in order to investigate local sources of PAC contamination in the SSC and the influence of the petroleum terminal in fish caught in remote areas. The results showed that these fish species potentially migrate along the channel, especially P. nudigula. Correlations among groups of PAC metabolites indicate the same petrogenic source for NPH and PHN equivalents and a combustion source (e.g., automobile, ships) for BaP equivalents. The ratio BaP/PHN equivalents (0.05 ± 0.07, n = 37) confirms the predominance of petrogenic PACs for contamination by these chemicals in this region. 相似文献