Physical and chemical impacts of a major storm on a temperate lake: a taste of things to come?     

R. Iestyn Woolway  John H. Simpson  David Spiby  Heidrun Feuchtmayr  Ben Powell  Stephen C. Maberly 《Climatic change》2018,151(2):333-347

Extreme weather can have a substantial influence on lakes and is expected to become more frequent with climate change. We explored the influence of one particular extreme event, Storm Ophelia, on the physical and chemical environment of England’s largest lake, Windermere. We found that the substantial influence of Ophelia on meteorological conditions at Windermere, in particular wind speed, resulted in a 25-fold increase (relative to the study-period average) in the wind energy flux at the lake-air interface. Following Ophelia, there was a short-lived mixing event in which the Schmidt stability decreased by over 100 Jm^?2 and the thermocline deepened by over 10 m during a 12-h period. As a result of changes to the strength of stratification, Ophelia also changed the internal seiche regime of Windermere with the dominant seiche period increasing from ~?17 h pre-storm to ~?21 h post-storm. Following Ophelia, there was an upwelling of cold and low-oxygenated waters at the southern-end of the lake. This had a substantial influence on the main outflow of Windermere, the River Leven, where dissolved oxygen concentrations decreased by ~?48%, from 9.3 to 4.8 mg L^?1, while at the mid-lake monitoring station in Windermere, it decreased by only ~?3%. This study illustrates that the response of a lake to extreme weather can cause important effects downstream, the influence of which may not be evident at the lake surface. To understand the impact of future extreme events fully, the whole lake and downstream-river system need to be studied together.  相似文献   

Dynamics of the coupled human–climate system resulting from closed-loop control of solar geoengineering     

Douglas G. MacMartin  Ben Kravitz  David W. Keith  Andrew Jarvis 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(1-2):243-258

If solar radiation management (SRM) were ever implemented, feedback of the observed climate state might be used to adjust the radiative forcing of SRM in order to compensate for uncertainty in either the forcing or the climate response. Feedback might also compensate for unexpected changes in the system, e.g. a nonlinear change in climate sensitivity. However, in addition to the intended response to greenhouse-gas induced changes, the use of feedback would also result in a geoengineering response to natural climate variability. We use a box-diffusion dynamic model of the climate system to understand how changing the properties of the feedback control affect the emergent dynamics of this coupled human–climate system, and evaluate these predictions using the HadCM3L general circulation model. In particular, some amplification of natural variability is unavoidable; any time delay (e.g., to average out natural variability, or due to decision-making) exacerbates this amplification, with oscillatory behavior possible if there is a desire for rapid correction (high feedback gain). This is a challenge for policy as a delayed response is needed for decision making. Conversely, the need for feedback to compensate for uncertainty, combined with a desire to avoid excessive amplification of natural variability, results in a limit on how rapidly SRM could respond to changes in the observed state of the climate system.  相似文献   

Persistence of clear-water,shallow-lake ecosystems: the role of protected areas and stable aquatic food webs     

William O. Hobbs  Kevin M. Theissen  Sean M. Hagen  Charles W. Bruchu  Ben C. Czeck  Joy M. Ramstack Hobbs  Kyle D. Zimmer 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2014,51(3):405-420

The roles of both landscape alteration and in-lake processes need to be considered in conservation strategies for shallow lakes in the prairie regions of North America. Here we focus on shallow lakes in west-central Minnesota, USA, highlighting the long-term ecological history and response to known landscape changes of a clear-water, macrophyte-dominated, shallow lake. Contemporary limnological data suggest the aquatic ecosystem has been very stable and fishless for the last ~15 years. Sediment proxies for primary production and ecological change confirm that a stable ecosystem likely prevailed for the last ~200 years. However, sedimentary indicators of catchment erosion detail a distinct response to land-use change during the conversion of native grassland to agricultural land, and following establishment of a protected waterfowl production area (WPA) around the lake. Post-WPA, the rate of sediment accrual decreased dramatically within 5–10 years and sources of organic matter were similar to those of the pre-settlement period. The aquatic ecosystem has been able to withstand nutrient enrichment and allochthonous inputs because stable trophic interactions have likely been in place for more than 200 years. We conclude that lack of hydrologic connectivity and isolated, small catchments are important factors in the promotion of clear-water shallow lake ecosystems, mainly because they prevent colonization by fish and associated ecological consequences. This study highlights the importance of managing both the landscape and in-lake processes to maintain stable, clear-water, shallow lakes.  相似文献   

一次局地暴雨的地闪特征及其与强降水的关系     

苟阿宁  王晓玲  龙利民  刘希文  牛奔 《气象科技》2015,43(5):911-917

利用闪电定位仪每分钟实测资料、加密自动站逐分钟雨量和卫星云图云顶亮温TBB资料,对2013年4月29日西南涡东移过程中MCS产生的局地暴雨地闪特征进行了分析。结果表明：这次过程产生了大量地闪活动,且地闪主要出现在西南涡东侧500 hPa槽前辐合上升运动区、700 hPa暖切南侧850 hPa暖切北部的辐合带、TBB小于等于220 K区域南侧TBB水平梯度大值区的叠置区。整个过程负闪占主导地位,强降水发生在负闪密集区;MCS生命史不同阶段的正负闪频数、密集程度和分布位置是不同的。进一步分析发现单站地闪频数与TBB和强降水在时空变化上有一定的相关性,地闪频数和TBB表现为负相关,即TBB下降到最低值时,地闪频数则到达峰值;逐时地闪频数和雨强均呈单峰分布,负闪频数和强降水发展演变趋势一致,负闪峰值和最大雨峰时刻对应,正闪或和最大雨峰一致或略滞后,正负闪和雨峰的6 min演变趋势呈多峰分布,负闪初现12~18 min后出现降水,负闪突增较强降水有18~24 min的提前量。此个例显示MCS将朝向移动路径前侧的负闪密集区域移动,负闪密集区对局地强降水的落区和强度有较好的指示意义。  相似文献   

Local perceptions in climate change debates: insights from case studies in the Alps and the Andes     

Christine Jurt  Maria Dulce Burga  Luis Vicuña  Christian Huggel  Ben Orlove 《Climatic change》2015,133(3):511-523

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Modelling Pollutant Dispersion in a Street Network     

N.?Ben?Salem  V.?Garbero  P.?SalizzoniEmail author  G.?Lamaison  L.?Soulhac 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2015,154(1):157-170

This study constitutes a further step in the analysis of the performances of a street network model to simulate atmospheric pollutant dispersion in urban areas. The model, named SIRANE, is based on the decomposition of the urban atmosphere into two sub-domains: the urban boundary layer, whose dynamics is assumed to be well established, and the urban canopy, represented as a series of interconnected boxes. Parametric laws govern the mass exchanges between the boxes under the assumption that the pollutant dispersion within the canopy can be fully simulated by modelling three main bulk transfer phenomena: channelling along street axes, transfers at street intersections, and vertical exchange between street canyons and the overlying atmosphere. Here, we aim to evaluate the reliability of the parametrizations adopted to simulate these phenomena, by focusing on their possible dependence on the external wind direction. To this end, we test the model against concentration measurements within an idealized urban district whose geometrical layout closely matches the street network represented in SIRANE. The analysis is performed for an urban array with a fixed geometry and a varying wind incidence angle. The results show that the model provides generally good results with the reference parametrizations adopted in SIRANE and that its performances are quite robust for a wide range of the model parameters. This proves the reliability of the street network approach in simulating pollutant dispersion in densely built city districts. The results also show that the model performances may be improved by considering a dependence of the wind fluctuations at street intersections and of the vertical exchange velocity on the direction of the incident wind. This opens the way for further investigations to clarify the dependence of these parameters on wind direction and street aspect ratios.  相似文献   

大别山西侧极端降水中尺度对流系统结构与传播特征   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10       下载免费PDF全文

张家国  周金莲  谌伟  张蒙蒙  黄小彦  牛奔 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2015,73(2):291-304

2012年7月12—13日中国鄂东北连续2 d出现特大暴雨,过程最大总雨量达600 mm。重点利用卫星、雷达和地面自动气象站观测资料等,分析了7月12日大别山西南侧极端强降水型中尺度对流系统的发生发展过程、结构和传播特征等。研究表明:(1)鄂东北特大暴雨是由一个向后传播-准静态α中尺度强对流系统(后向建立中尺度对流系统)产生的。(2)该类型中尺度对流系统频发于鄂东北地区,与鄂东北东侧大别山脉对雷暴冷池的阻挡有密切关系。主要表现在,大别山山脉对雷暴冷池的阻挡导致冷空气在山前堆积并形成回流,回流使中尺度对流系统传播由向下风方转为向上风方。(3)向后传播方式演变的中尺度对流系统因少动或因列车效应明显,常在山前一定距离内产生极端强降水。(4)雷暴冷池向上风方运动导致对流单体向后向传播,是指状对流云团形成的重要机制之一。  相似文献   

The Bow City structure,southern Alberta,Canada: The deep roots of a complex impact structure?     

Paul Glombick  Douglas R. Schmitt  Wei Xie  Todd Bown  Ben Hathway  Christopher Banks 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2014,49(5):872-895

Geological and geophysical evidence is presented for a newly discovered, probable remnant complex impact structure. The structure, located near Bow City, southern Alberta, has no obvious morphological expression at surface. The geometry of the structure in the shallow subsurface, mapped using downhole geophysical well logs, is a semicircular structural depression approximately 8 km in diameter with a semicircular uplifted central region. Detailed subsurface mapping revealed evidence of localized duplication of stratigraphic section in the central uplift area and omission of strata within the surrounding annular region. Field mapping of outcrop confirmed an inlier of older rocks present within the center of the structure. Evidence of deformation along the eastern margin of the central uplift includes thrust faulting, folding, and steeply dipping bedding. Normal faults were mapped along the northern margin of the annular region. Isopach maps reveal that structural thickening and thinning were accommodated primarily within the Belly River Group. Evidence from legacy 2‐D seismic data is consistent with the subsurface mapping and reveals additional insight into the geometry of the structure, including a series of listric normal faults in the annular region and complex faulting within the central uplift. The absence of any ejecta blanket, breccia, suevite, or melt sheet (based on available data) is consistent with the Bow City structure being the remnant of a deeply eroded, complex impact structure. Accordingly, the Bow City structure may provide rare access and insight into zones of deformation remaining beneath an excavated transient crater in stratified siliciclastic target rocks.  相似文献   

Probabilistic projections of transient climate change     

Glen R. Harris  David M. H. Sexton  Ben B. B. Booth  Mat Collins  James M. Murphy 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(11-12):2937-2972

This paper describes a Bayesian methodology for prediction of multivariate probability distribution functions (PDFs) for transient regional climate change. The approach is based upon PDFs for the equilibrium response to doubled carbon dioxide, derived from a comprehensive sampling of uncertainties in modelling of surface and atmospheric processes, and constrained by multiannual mean observations of recent climate. These PDFs are sampled and scaled by global mean temperature predicted by a Simple Climate Model (SCM), in order to emulate corresponding transient responses. The sampled projections are then reweighted, based upon the likelihood that they correctly replicate observed historical changes in surface temperature, and combined to provide PDFs for 20 year averages of regional temperature and precipitation changes to the end of the twenty-first century, for the A1B emissions scenario. The PDFs also account for modelling uncertainties associated with aerosol forcing, ocean heat uptake and the terrestrial carbon cycle, sampled using SCM configurations calibrated to the response of perturbed physics ensembles generated using the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3, and other international climate model simulations. Weighting the projections using observational metrics of recent mean climate is found to be as effective at constraining the future transient response as metrics based on historical trends. The spread in global temperature response due to modelling uncertainty in the carbon cycle feedbacks is determined to be about 65–80 % of the spread arising from uncertainties in modelling atmospheric, oceanic and aerosol processes of the climate system. Early twenty-first century aerosol forcing is found to be extremely unlikely to be less than ?1.7 W m^?2. Our technique provides a rigorous and formal method of combining several lines of evidence used in the previous IPCC expert assessment of the Transient Climate Response. The 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of our observationally constrained PDF for the Transient Climate Response are 1.6, 2.0 and 2.4 °C respectively, compared with the 10–90 % range of 1.0–3.0 °C assessed by the IPCC.  相似文献   

近10a湖北省强降水时空分布特征与主要天气概念模型   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

吴翠红  王晓玲  龙利民  牛奔  王珊珊  李银娥 《湖北气象》2013,(2):113-119

利用湖北省78个气象站逐小时雨量和地面风场资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及新一代天气雷达资料和卫星云图资料,对湖北省1999—2009年208例强降水过程的时空分布、雨团源地和路径、雨强特征、主要影响天气系统进行了普查分析。结果表明:湖北省强降水源地主要位于鄂西山区和江汉平原南部,在不同引导气流的作用下,强降水雨团主要有6条活动路径;强降水频发区主要位于孝感、黄冈北部和宜昌等地,孝感是全省强降水频发中心;影响强降水的天气系统主要有干线(又称露点锋,下同)、湿舌、暖切顶部辐合区、冷切尾部辐合区、气流汇合区、涌线、地面辐合线;根据干线的不同作用和影响方式,将湖北省180个干线类强降水分成干侵入型、干混合型、干锋生型和暖干型四种类型。基于对动力、水汽、不稳定三个条件以及强降水落区等显著特征的总结分析,归纳出四种干线类强降水的天气概念模型。  相似文献