Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers,impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alexander Popp  Steven K. Rose  Katherine Calvin  Detlef P. Van Vuuren  Jan Phillip Dietrich  Marshall Wise  Elke Stehfest  Florian Humpenöder  Page Kyle  Jasper Van Vliet  Nico Bauer  Hermann Lotze-Campen  David Klein  Elmar Kriegler 《Climatic change》2014,123(3-4):495-509

In this article, we evaluate and compare results from three integrated assessment models (GCAM, IMAGE, and ReMIND/MAgPIE) regarding the drivers and impacts of bioenergy production on the global land system. The considered model frameworks employ linked energy, economy, climate and land use modules. By the help of these linkages the direct competition of bioenergy with other energy technology options for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, based on economic costs and GHG emissions from bioenergy production, has been taken into account. Our results indicate that dedicated bioenergy crops and biomass residues form a potentially important and cost-effective input into the energy system. At the same time, however, the results differ strongly in terms of deployment rates, feedstock composition and land-use and greenhouse gas implications. The current paper adds to earlier work by specific looking into model differences with respect to the land-use component that could contribute to the noted differences in results, including land cover allocation, land use constraints, energy crop yields, and non-bioenergy land mitigation options modeled. In scenarios without climate change mitigation, bioenergy cropland represents 10–18 % of total cropland by 2100 across the different models, and boosts cropland expansion at the expense of carbon richer ecosystems. Therefore, associated emissions from land-use change and agricultural intensification as a result of bio-energy use range from 14 and 113 Gt CO2-eq cumulatively through 2100. Under climate policy, bioenergy cropland increases to 24–36 % of total cropland by 2100.  相似文献   

Fossil resource and energy security dynamics in conventional and carbon-constrained worlds     

David McCollum  Nico Bauer  Katherine Calvin  Alban Kitous  Keywan Riahi 《Climatic change》2014,123(3-4):413-426

Fossil resource endowments and the future development of fossil fuel prices are important factors that will critically influence the nature and direction of the global energy system. In this paper we analyze a multi-model ensemble of long-term energy and emissions scenarios that were developed within the framework of the EMF27 integrated assessment model inter-comparison exercise. The diverse nature of these models highlights large uncertainties in the likely development of fossil resource (coal, oil, and natural gas) consumption, trade, and prices over the course of the twenty-first century and under different climate policy frameworks. We explore and explain some of the differences across scenarios and models and compare the scenario results with fossil resource estimates from the literature. A robust finding across the suite of IAMs is that the cumulative fossil fuel consumption foreseen by the models is well within the bounds of estimated recoverable reserves and resources. Hence, fossil resource constraints are, in and of themselves, unlikely to limit future GHG emissions this century. Our analysis also shows that climate mitigation policies could lead to a major reallocation of financial flows between regions, in terms of expenditures on fossil fuels and carbon, and can help to alleviate near-term energy security concerns via the reductions in oil imports and increases in energy system diversity they will help to motivate. Aggressive efforts to promote energy efficiency are, on their own, not likely to lead to markedly greater energy independence, however, contrary to the stated objectives of certain industrialized countries.  相似文献   

Ethnic Capital and Assimilation to the Great Australian (Homeownership) Dream: the early housing experience of Australia's skilled immigrants   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

James Forrest  Ron Johnston  Michael Poulsen 《The Australian geographer》2014,45(2):109-129

We use the Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Australia, 2005–2006, to examine the housing tenure experience of skilled immigrants to Australia 6 and 18 months after arrival for relationships with ethnic capital (cultural background), visa category streams, aspects of human capital, demographics, social capital and discrimination. Homeownership experience is used to indicate integration into Australia's dominantly middle-class society. Multinomial regression analysis identifies visa entry category as the most important independent group of variables accounting for immigrants' short-term dwelling tenure, followed by aspects of human capital, family status, and the importance of ethnic capital for immigrants of both English-speaking and non-English-speaking backgrounds, and discrimination.  相似文献   

A Taylor basis for kinematic nonlinear real-time simulations. Part II: The Taylor basis     

Sebastian Andersen  Peter Noe Poulsen 《地震工程与结构动力学》2019,48(8):929-948

Real-time simulations are used to a significant extent in many engineering fields. However, if nonlinearities are included, the real-time requirement significantly limits the size and complexity of numerical models. The present work constitutes the second of two papers where a general basis method to simulate kinematic nonlinear structures more efficiently is introduced. The advantage of the basis formulation is that it enables the number of basis vectors to be increased without increasing the number of unknown basis co-ordinates. This allows for larger numerical kinematically nonlinear models to run in real time. The basis is organized from a Taylor series that includes the system mode shapes and their complete first-order modal derivatives derived in Part I. The Taylor series predicts fixed linear relations between the modal co-ordinates of the system mode shapes and the modal derivatives, respectively. Thus, the full solution is known solely by determining the modal co-ordinates of the mode shapes, which significantly minimizes the computational costs. Furthermore, it is illustrated that the stability of the Taylor basis formulation is dependent on the mode shape frequencies only, allowing the applied time steps to be significantly larger than in standard nonlinear basis analysis. An example illustrates a case where the computational time can be decreased by one order of magnitude using a Taylor basis formulation compared with a standard basis formulation including identical basis vectors.  相似文献   

Endemic avifaunal biodiversity and tropical forest loss in Makira, a mountainous Pacific island     

Finn Danielsen  Christopher E. Filardi  Knud A. Jønsson  Victor Kohaia  Niels Krabbe  Jan B. Kristensen  Robert G. Moyle  Patrick Pikacha  Michael K. Poulsen  Mikael K. Sørensen  Charles Tatahu  Joseph Waihuru  Jon Fjeldså 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2010,31(1):100-114

Anthropogenic habitat changes and the introduction of pigs, dogs, cats and rats have caused a catastrophic decline in the terrestrial biodiversity of Pacific archipelagos. At present, economic globalization and an increased demand for timber are promoting industrial logging and plantation expansion. Commercial logging can be sustainable but in practice it more often leads to land degradation, especially on small flat islands. On large and mountainous islands, however, more modest impacts can be expected as the narrowly endemic species tend to inhabit montane forests where logging is difficult. In this study we use ornithological data collected at different elevations to assess the extent to which the avifauna of Makira, a large mountainous island in Melanesia, will be affected by deforestation of the lowlands, most of which are under timber concessions. Our data suggest that a majority of the endemic bird species use lowland forest to some extent and that this may even apply to species hitherto associated with montane forest. If current commercial forestry programmes are continued, the forest habitat may be disturbed or lost over large parts of Makira, potentially undermining the natural resource base for the local subsistence economy, exacerbating climate change and threatening the integrity of one of the most important areas for biodiversity conservation on earth. Our study highlights the importance of understanding the habitat requirements of endemic species and the urgency of establishing and effectively managing community-based protected areas in suitable lowland forests of the Pacific.  相似文献   

Application of an Analytical Solution as a Screening Tool for Sea Water Intrusion   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Calvin R. Beebe  Grant Ferguson  Tom Gleeson  Leanne K. Morgan  Adrian D. Werner 《Ground water》2016,54(5):709-718

Sea water intrusion into aquifers is problematic in many coastal areas. The physics and chemistry of this issue are complex, and sea water intrusion remains challenging to quantify. Simple assessment tools like analytical models offer advantages of rapid application, but their applicability to field situations is unclear. This study examines the reliability of a popular sharp‐interface analytical approach for estimating the extent of sea water in a homogeneous coastal aquifer subjected to pumping and regional flow effects and under steady‐state conditions. The analytical model is tested against observations from Canada, the United States, and Australia to assess its utility as an initial approximation of sea water extent for the purposes of rapid groundwater management decision making. The occurrence of sea water intrusion resulting in increased salinity at pumping wells was correctly predicted in approximately 60% of cases. Application of a correction to account for dispersion did not markedly improve the results. Failure of the analytical model to provide correct predictions can be attributed to mismatches between its simplifying assumptions and more complex field settings. The best results occurred where the toe of the salt water wedge is expected to be the closest to the coast under predevelopment conditions. Predictions were the poorest for aquifers where the salt water wedge was expected to extend further inland under predevelopment conditions and was therefore more dispersive prior to pumping. Sharp‐interface solutions remain useful tools to screen for the vulnerability of coastal aquifers to sea water intrusion, although the significant sources of uncertainty identified in this study require careful consideration to avoid misinterpreting sharp‐interface results.  相似文献   

Modelling suspended sediment concentration and load in a transport‐limited alluvial gully in northern Queensland,Australia          下载免费PDF全文

Calvin W. Rose  Jeffrey G. Shellberg  Andrew P. Brooks 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2015,40(10):1291-1303

Alluvial gullies are often formed in dispersible sodic soils along steep banks of incised river channels. Field data collected by Shellberg et al. (Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 38: 1765–1778, 2013) from a gully outlet in northern Australia showed little hysteresis between water discharge and fine (<63 µm) and coarse (>63 µm) suspended sediment, indicating transport‐limited rather than source‐limited conditions. The major source of the fine (silt/clay) component was the sodic soils of upstream gully scarps, and the coarser (sand) component was sourced locally from channel bed material. In this companion paper at the same study site, a new method was developed for combining the settling velocity characteristics of these two sediment source components to estimate the average settling velocity of the total suspended sediment. This was compared to the analysis of limited sediment samples collected during flood conditions. These settling velocity data were used in the steady‐state transport limit theory of Hairsine and Rose (Water Resources Research 28: 237–243, 245–250, 1992) that successfully predicted field data of concentrations and loads at a cross‐section, regardless of the complexity of transport‐limited upstream sources (sheet erosion, scalds, rills, gullies, mass failure, bank and bed erosion, other disturbed areas). The analysis required calibration of a key model parameter, the fraction of total stream power (F ≈ 0.025) that is effective in re‐entraining sediment. Practical recommendations are provided for the prediction of sediment loads from other alluvial gullies in the region with similar hydrogeomorphic conditions, using average stream power efficiency factors for suspended silt/clay (F_w ≈ 0.016) and sand (F_s ≈ 0.038) respectively, but with no requirement for field data on sediment concentrations. Only basic field data on settling velocity characteristics from soil samples, channel geometry measurements, estimates of water velocity and discharge, and associated error margins are needed for transport limit theory predictions of concentration and load. This theory is simpler than that required in source‐limited situations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Assessment of Slope Stability for Deep Pits in Sedimentary Strata     

Brett A. Poulsen  Deepak P. Adhikary  Rao Balusu 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2017,35(2):631-643

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Planetary-type rare gases in an upper mantle-derived amphibole     

Kazuo Saito  Asish R. Basu  E. Calvin Alexander 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1978,39(2):274-280

All twenty-three stable rare gas isotopes have been measured in a mantle-derived amphibole, kaersutite. The elemental abundance pattern of the rare gases is similar to the “planetary” rare gas pattern as defined by carbonaceous chondrites. The³He/⁴He ratio, (4.9 ± 0.6) × 10^?5, is suggestive of primordial He degassing from the mantle. Excess²¹Ne is present. The measured⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar ratio,400 ± 5, may represent a mantle⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar ratio <240 when corrected for radiogenic⁴⁰Ar. The heavy isotopes of Kr and t0he Xe isotopes are within error of the atmosphere values.  相似文献   

Palynology of the last interglacial-glacial cycle in midlatitudes of Southern Chile     

Calvin J. Heusser 《Quaternary Research》1981,16(3):293-321

Pollen and spores in stratigraphic sections located between 40 and 42°S range in age from the Holocene, through much of the Llanquihue Glaciation, to the last interglaciation. Chronology of the stratigraphy derives from some 35 ¹⁴C ages and the age relations of Llanquihue Drift and related deposits. Q-Mode, rotated, principal-components analysis of four key pollen records covering the last interglacial-glacial cycle resulted in four leading components: Nothofagus dombeyi type, Gramineae, Weinmannia-Fitzroya type, and Myrtaceae. Analysis emphasizes interaction between the first two components. Loadings of Gramineae during the interglaciation are high, unlike the Holocene; Weinmannia-Fitzroya-type loadings, prominent in the Holocene, are negligible during the interglaciation. N. dombeyi type is the primary component during Llanquihue Glaciation; it becomes modified by increases of Gramineae sometime after 31,000 and before 14,000 yr B.P. and of Myrtaceae later. The Myrtaceae with Weinmannia-Fitzroya type also registers some activity around 42,000 yr B.P. Fluctuations in the belt of westerly winds, reflecting changing meteorological conditions in polar latitudes, are suggested by these data. With the belt located farther south than it is today, interglacial climate was much drier and warmer than during the Holocene; more northerly displacement of the belt obtained when climate was colder during Llanquihue Glaciation. Evidence from comparable latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere points toward a synchrony of major climatic events indicating harmonious fluctuations in the position of the westerlies.  相似文献