基于多模式的巢湖降水集成预报效果检验          下载免费PDF全文

刘汉武  王文本  范裕祥  金社军  王玉红 《气象与减灾研究》2016,39(4):283-289

利用2014年2月—2015年9月中尺度模式(INCA、WRF)、全球模式(ECMWF、JMA)预报数据,结合巢湖湖泊周边区域站降水实况数据,应用加权平均法建立方程,开展多模式集成预报实验,得到不同时效最佳集成预报方程,并对各时效的方程预报能力进行了对比检验。结果表明:在最佳集成方程中,ECMWF模式预报稳定性较好,权重最大。随着预报时效的延长和降水量等级增大,集成预报和各单一模式预报的误差逐渐增大,评分逐渐降低。集成预报比单一模式预报的误差明显降低,预报准确率有所提高,开展多模式集成预报具有明显优越性。  相似文献   

Influence of springtime North Atlantic Oscillation on crops yields in Northeast China     

Mengzi Zhou  Huijun Wang  Song Yang  Ke Fan 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):3317-3324

Forecasting grain production is of strategic importance in considerations of climate change and growing population. Here we show that the springtime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is significantly correlated to the year-to-year increment of maize and rice yield in Northeast China (NEC). The physical mechanism for this relationship was investigated. Springtime NAO can induce sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the North Atlantic, which display a tripole pattern and are similar to the empirical mode pattern in spring. The spring Atlantic SSTA pattern that could persists to summer, can trigger a high-level tropospheric Rossby wave response in the Eurasia continent, resulting in atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Siberia-Mongolia region, which is unfavorable (favorable) for cold surges that affect NEC. Weaker (stronger) cold surges can accordingly reduce (increase) cloud amount, resulting in an increase (a decrease) in daily maximum temperature and a decrease (an increase) in daily minimum temperature, thereby leading to an increase (a decrease) in diurnal temperature range. And summer-mean daily minimum temperature and diurnal temperature range are most significantly related to the NEC crop yields.  相似文献   

“纳沙”、“尼格”强度和结构差异对海南暴雨分布的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

赵付竹  王凡  郑艳 《广东气象》2013,35(2)

2011年9月14日-10月5日,“纳沙”和“尼格”2个台风先后登陆海南,均产生了较强的区域性暴雨或大暴雨.利用常规资料,对这2个台风的移动路径和暴雨形成机制进行了对比分析.分析结果表明,台风登陆后,由于副高形态及其演变的不同,使得两个台风路径变化不同.利用0.5°×0.5°NCEP全球再分析资料和常规气象要素、中尺度自动站和日本静止卫星0.05°×0.05°TBB等资料,综合分析登陆台风“纳沙”、“尼格”强度和结构差异对海南暴雨分布的影响.结果表明:台风中心附近环境风垂直切变密集带的跨度变化与台风强度相关,日平均海表温度与热带气旋(TC)强度维持或加强密切相关;登陆TC动力结构和水汽辐合的不对称分布导致台风暴雨落区和强度存在显著差异,强降水与局地发生的对流云对应较好时表现为明显的对流性降水,对降水有增幅作用.  相似文献   

Assimilating QuikSCAT Ocean Surface Winds with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for Surface Wind-Field Simulation over the Chukchi/Beaufort Seas     

Xingang Fan  Jeremy R. Krieger  Jing Zhang  Xiangdong Zhang 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2013,148(1):207-226

To achieve a high-quality simulation of the surface wind field in the Chukchi/Beaufort Sea region, quick scatterometer (QuikSCAT) ocean surface winds were assimilated into the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting model by using its three-dimensional variational data assimilation system. The SeaWinds instrument on board the polar-orbiting QuikSCAT satellite is a specialized radar that measures ice-free ocean surface wind speed and direction at a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km. A total of eight assimilation case studies over two five-day periods, 1–5 October 2002 and 20–24 September 2004, were performed. The simulation results with and without the assimilation of QuikSCAT winds were then compared with QuikSCAT data available during the subsequent free-forecast period, coastal station observations, and North American Regional Reanalysis data. It was found that QuikSCAT winds are a potentially valuable resource for improving the simulation of ocean near-surface winds in the Chukchi/Beaufort Seas region. Specifically, the assimilation of QuikSCAT winds improved, (1) offshore surface winds as compared to unassimilated QuikSCAT winds, (2) sea-level pressure, planetary boundary-layer height, as well as surface heat fluxes, and (3) low-level wind fields and geopotential height. Verification against QuikSCAT data also demonstrated the temporal consistency and good quality of QuikSCAT observations.  相似文献   

Contributions of individual variation in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation to crop yield in the North China Plain, 1961–2003     

Chao Chen  Walter E. Baethgen  Andrew Robertson 《Climatic change》2013,116(3-4):767-788

An understanding of the relative impacts of the changes in climate variables on crop yield can help develop effective adaptation strategies to cope with climate change. This study was conducted to investigate the effects of the interannual variability and trends in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation during 1961–2003 on wheat and maize yields in a double cropping system at Beijing and Zhengzhou in the North China Plain (NCP), and to examine the relative contributions of each climate variable in isolation. 129 climate scenarios consisting of all the combinations of these climate variables were constructed. Each scenario contained 43 years of observed values of one variable, combined with values of the other two variables from each individual year repeated 43 times. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) was used to simulate crop yields using the ensemble of generated climate scenarios. The results showed that the warming trend during the study period did not have significant impact on wheat yield potential at both sites, and only had significant negative impact on maize yield potential at Beijing. This is in contrast with previous results on effect of warming. The decreasing trend in solar radiation had a much greater impact on simulated yields of both wheat and maize crops, causing a significant reduction in potential yield of wheat and maize at Beijing. Although decreasing trends in rainfed yield of both simulated wheat and maize were found, the substantial interannual variability of precipitation made the trends less prominent.  相似文献   

The γ-ray emission mechanism for Fermi Blazars     

J. H. Yang  J. H. Fan  T. X. Hua  D. X. Wu 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2014,352(2):819-824

Fermi Blazars are characterized mainly by the vast effect that relativistic beaming has on their emission spectra. Fermi-LAT has detected more than 1000 blazars which provide us with a good opportunity to study the emission mechanism. In this paper, adopted the Doppler factor δ _γ determined in our previous paper, the γ-ray emission mechanism is discussed using the investigation of dependence of the γ-ray luminosity on the Doppler factor. Our discussions suggest that the γ-ray emission mechanism is SSC for BL Lacs.  相似文献   

SUSTAINABLE RURAL LIVELIHOOD AND ECOLOGICAL SHELTER CONSTRUCTION IN UPPER REACHES OF CHANGJIANG RIVER ——Case Study of Zhaotong of Yunnan Province     

SHENG Ke-rong FAN Jie MA Hai-long 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2006,16(1):32-40

1INTRODUCTION Ecological shelter construction (ESC) in the upper reaches of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River has been an important component of Development Program of West- ern China. In recent years, most of the literatures dis- cussing the meanings and goals of ESC have been fo- cused on the macro-level, and the scholars have concep- tualized it as a comprehensive strategy to promote the sustainable development of regional economy, society and environment, in which forestry's construc…  相似文献   

Gamma-ray burst efficiency and possible physical processes shaping the early afterglow     

Yizhong Fan †  Tsvi Piran 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,369(1):197-206

The discovery by Swift that a good fraction of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) have a slowly decaying X-ray afterglow phase led to the suggestion that energy injection into the blast wave takes place several hundred seconds after the burst. This implies that right after the burst the kinetic energy of the blast wave was very low and in turn the efficiency of production of γ-rays during the burst was extremely high, rendering the internal shocks model unlikely. We re-examine the estimates of kinetic energy in GRB afterglows and show that the efficiency of converting the kinetic energy into γ-rays is moderate and does not challenge the standard internal shock model. We also examine several models, including in particular energy injection, suggested to interpret this slow decay phase. We show that with proper parameters, all these models give rise to a slow decline lasting several hours. However, even those models that fit all X-ray observations, and in particular the energy injection model, cannot account self-consistently for both the X-ray and the optical afterglows of well-monitored GRBs such as GRB 050319 and GRB 050401. We speculate about a possible alternative resolution of this puzzle.  相似文献   

RESPONSE OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC UPPER OCEAN CURRENT TO WESTERLY WIND BURSTS     

王凡  吴德星  佘国辉  闫基桥 《中国海洋湖沼学报》1995,13(4):294-302

The characteristics of the response of equatorial Pacific upper ocean current to westerly wind bursts(WWB)were analyzed in the frequency domain by using wind and ADCP data collected by the Shiyan3 during TOGA-COARE IOP,1992-1993.The preliminary results showed that the response consistedof an eastward surface jet at shallower than 60m depth,a westward counter current centering near100m and a shear layer between them,with the variations of all three being nonlinear and nearlysynchronous.The oceanic responses in the frequency domain were characterized by occurrences of a remotely forced mixed Rossby-gravity wave with period of 8-10 days in the surface jet andcountercurrent at shallower than 110 m depth,and two locally forced waves with periods of 24 daysand 4-5 days limited in shallower than 70m depth.These fluctuations of the responses depended much more on zonal wind than meridional wind.The results also revealed that the oceanic response toWWB resulted from momentum transport and energy propagation assoc  相似文献   

济南市历城区土地开发整理工作纪实     

王超 《山东国土资源》2006,22(8):17-18

0引言济南市历城区南依泰山,北靠黄河,自西汉初设县,距今已有2100多年的历史,素有“齐鲁首邑”之称,总面积1 303 km2,辖4个街道办事处、11个镇, 47个社区居委会、651个行政村。全区人口88万,土地面积13．03万hm2,其中耕地面积4．06万hm2。人均耕地约0．046 7 hm2(0．7亩),远远低于全国、全省平均水平,是典型的人多地少区域。随着社会经济的快速发展,人口的急剧增加,用地矛盾日益尖锐。作为担负着全区国土资源管理重任的职能部门,历城区国土资源局在区委、区政府和市国土资  相似文献