Landslide susceptibility mapping using precipitation data,Mazandaran Province,north of Iran     

Mohammad Arab Amiri  Christian Conoscenti 《Natural Hazards》2017,87(1):255-286

A tropical cyclone was formed over central northern Africa near Egypt, Libya and Crete, and it moved and deepened toward the north–northeast; meanwhile, the storm destroyed many regions in the west, southwest and central of Turkey. The cyclone carried huge dust from the north of Africa to Turkey and reduced the visibility to less than 1 km and raised the wind speed. As a result of severe storm, some meteorological stations have new extreme values that the strongest wind speed measured was 81 knots in the central region of Turkey. Medicane with wind speed 81 knots especially over Turkey is a rare event. This devastating cyclone carried exceptionally very strong winds (>80 kts) with favorable conditions to follow windstorm conceptual model. The cyclone caused adverse conditions such as excessive injuries, fatal incidents and forest fires. Mesoscale vortex formed and affected particularly the middle and western regions of Turkey. The vertical thermodynamic structure of storm is compared with April values of 40 years of datasets over Istanbul. Moreover, four different winds {measurement masts} of Istanbul Atatürk Airport are used for the microscale analysis of different meteorological parameters during deepened pressure level. In addition, divergence and vorticity of stormy weather are discussed in details during the effective time period of storm by solving equations and validated using ERA-40 reanalysis. We obtained many monitoring data sources such as ground base, radar, radiosonde and satellite display the values of the intensity of wind speed caused by cyclones of tropics have revealed similarities.  相似文献   

Spectral analysis of climate cycles to predict rainfall induced landslides in the western Mediterranean (Majorca,Spain)     

Juan Antonio Luque-Espinar  Rosa María Mateos  Inmaculada García-Moreno  Eulogio Pardo-Igúzquiza  Gerardo Herrera 《Natural Hazards》2017,89(3):985-1007

In the present work, spectral analysis has been applied to determine the presence and statistical significance of climate cycles in long-term data series from different rainfall and gauging stations located in the Tramuntana Range, in the north-western sector of the island of Majorca. Climate signals recorded previously in the Mediterranean region have been identified: the ENSO, NAO, HALE, QBO and Sun Spot cycles as well as others related to solar activity; the most powerful signals correspond to the annual cycle, followed by the 6-month and NAO cycles. The incorporation of data derived from gauging stations contributes to better climate signal detection as local and exceptional influences are eliminated. Simulations have been performed for each rainfall/gauging station, using the most significant climate cycles obtained by means of the power spectrum. A good correlation between rainfall/flow values and simulated cycles has been obtained. The NAO and ENSO cycles are the most influential in the rainy periods, and specifically the NAO cycle, where a good correlation between episodes of high rainfall/flow and high values of ANAOI can be observed. At a second stage, landslides dated and recorded in the Tramuntana Range since 1954 (174 events) have been correlated with the simulated cycles obtaining good results, as the landslide events match rainfall peaks well. The correlation for the past decade (since 2005), when a detailed landslide inventory is available, also reveals a coincidence between landslide events and climate cycles, and specifically NAO and ENSO cycles. That is the case of the period 2008–2010, when numerous mass movements took place, and when the largest movement of the inventory was recorded. Results show a potential rainy period in the Tramuntana Range for the coming years (with maximum values around year 2021), when conditions similar to those related to the 2008–2010 event could take place again. The methodology presented in this work can contribute to the prediction of temporal, extreme hydrological events in order to design short-/medium-term mitigation strategies on a regional scale.  相似文献   

Historic catches,abundance, and decline of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in the River Elbe     

Christian Wolter 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2015,77(3):367-380

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Evaluation of the origin hypotheses of Pantheon Fossae, central Caloris basin, Mercury     

Christian Klimczak 《Icarus》2010,209(1):262-270

The origin of Pantheon Fossae, a complex structure consisting of radial graben in the center of the Caloris basin, Mercury, has been debated since the structure was first imaged by the MESSENGER spacecraft. Three different formation hypotheses have been suggested, i.e. an origin associated with the Apollodorus impact into a previously domed Caloris basin floor, graben formation as surface expressions of dike intrusions and basin-interior uplift alone. In order to test the scenarios, detailed observations from the currently available imagery were compared to the proposed formation mechanisms. We evaluate these origin hypotheses by means of detailed interpretations of the graben characteristics and patterns, by comparing to radial structures from Earth and Venus, and by mechanical analyses for each formation hypothesis. Results indicate that the formation of Pantheon Fossae as the result of doming in the central part of the Caloris basin is more likely than it having formed in association with a radially symmetric stress field centered at or near the Apollodorus crater, that would have been created by a magma chamber or been superimposed on a pre-existing dome due to impact mechanics.  相似文献   

Volker B?der (1965–2012) in memoriam     

Günter Seeber  Harald Sternberg  Christian Hirt 《Journal of Geodesy》2012,86(11):1077-1078

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Short and zero baseline analysis of GPS L1 C/A, L5Q, GIOVE E1B, and E5aQ signals   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Peter F. de Bakker  Christian C. J. M. Tiberius  Hans van der Marel  Roel J. P. van Bree 《GPS Solutions》2012,16(1):53-64

Stochastic properties of GNSS range measurements can accurately be estimated using a geometry-free short and zero baseline analysis method. This method is now applied to dual-frequency measurements from a new field campaign. Results are presented for the new GPS L5Q and GIOVE E5aQ wideband signals, in addition to the GPS L1 C/A and GIOVE E1B signals. As expected, the results clearly show the high precision of the new signals, but they also show, rather unexpectedly, significant, slowly changing variations in the pseudorange code measurements that are probably a result of strong multipath interference on the data. Carrier phase measurement noise is assessed on both frequencies, and finally successful mixed GPS-GIOVE double difference ambiguity resolution is demonstrated.  相似文献   

Crop area mapping in West Africa using landscape stratification of MODIS time series and comparison with existing global land products   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Elodie Vintrou  Annie DesbrosseAgnès Bégué  Sibiry TraoréChristian Baron  Danny Lo Seen 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2012,14(1):83-93

In Africa, food security early warning systems use satellite-derived data concerning crop conditions and agricultural production. Such systems can be improved if they are provided with a more reliable estimation of the cultivated area at national scale. This paper evaluates the potential of using time series from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer MOD13Q1 (16-day composite of normalized difference vegetation index at 250 m resolution) to extract cultivated areas in the fragmented rural landscapes of Mali. To this end, we first stratified Southern Mali into 13 rural landscapes based on the spatio-temporal variability of NDVI and textural indices, using an object-oriented classification scheme.The accuracy of the resulting map (MODIS_crop) and how it compares with existing coarse-resolution global land products (GLC2000 Africa, GLOBCOVER, MODIS V05 and ECOCLIMAP-II), was then assessed against six crop/non-crop maps derived from SPOT 2.5 m resolution images used as references. For crop areal coverage, the MODIS_crop cultivated map was successful in assessing the overall cultivated area at five out of the six validation sites (less than 6% of the absolute difference), while in terms of crop spatial distribution, the producer accuracy was between 33.1% and 80.8%. This accuracy was linearly correlated with the mean patch size index calculated on the SPOT crop maps (r² = 0.8). Using the Pareto boundary as an accuracy assessment method at the study sites, we showed that (i) 20-40% of the classification crop error was due to the spatial resolution of the MODIS sensor (250 m), and that (ii) compared to MODIS V05, which otherwise performed better than the other existing products, MODIS_crop generally minimized omission-commission errors. A spatial validation of the different products was carried out using SPOT image classifications as reference. In the corresponding error matrices, the fraction of correctly classified pixels for our product was 70%, compared to 58% for MODIS V05, while it ranged between 40% and 51% for the GLC2000, the ECOCLIMAP-II and the GLOBCOVER.  相似文献   

Basin modelling of a lignite‐bearing salt rim syncline: insights into rim syncline evolution and salt diapirism in NW Germany     

Christian Brandes  Lukas Pollok  Carolin Schmidt  Volker Wilde  Jutta Winsemann 《Basin Research》2012,24(6):699-716

The Helmstedt‐Staßfurt salt wall is 70 km long, 6–8 km wide and one of the most important diapiric structures in northern Germany, based on the economically significant lignite‐bearing rim synclines. The analysed Schöningen rim syncline, located on the southwestern side of the Helmstedt‐Staßfurt structure, is 8 km long and 3 km wide. The basin‐fill is up to 366 m thick and characterized by 13 major lignite seams with thicknesses between 0.1 and 30 m. The key objectives of this article were to expand on the classical cross‐section based rim syncline analysis by the use of 3D models and basin simulations. Cross‐sections perpendicular to the basin axis indicate that the basin‐fill has a pronounced lenticular shape. This shape varies from more symmetric in the NW to clearly asymmetric in the SE. Isopach maps imply a two‐fold depocentre evolution. The depocentre migrated over time towards the salt wall and also showed some distinct shifts parallel to the salt wall. The basin modelling part of the study was carried out with the software PetroMod^®, which focused on the burial history of the rim syncline. Modelling results also show the progressive migration of the rim syncline depocentre towards the salt wall. The present‐day asymmetry of the basin‐fill was already developed in the early phases of rim syncline evolution. The extracted geohistory curve shows initial rapid subsidence between 57 and 50 Ma and more moderate subsidence from 50 to 34 Ma. This pattern is interpreted to reflect salt evacuation from the source layer into the salt wall. The initial salt‐withdrawal rate was rapid, but later decreased probably due to depletion of the source layer.  相似文献   

Conditions for deposition of annually laminated sediments in small meromictic lakes: a case study of Lake Suminko (northern Poland)     

Wojciech Tylmann  Kamila Szpakowska  Christian Ohlendorf  Micha? Woszczyk  Bernd Zolitschka 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2012,47(1):55-70

A three-year field study was conducted in Lake Suminko, Poland, to gain an understanding of the limnological variables that influence the formation and spatial extent of annually laminated sediments in the lake. The water body is divided into three depth strata, the mixolimnion, chemocline and monimolimnion, each defined by distinct values of temperature, electrical conductivity and oxygen concentration. Typical for meromictic lakes, the monimolimnion remains perennially anoxic and is rich in dissolved solids and nutrients. The annual pattern of particle flux in Lake Suminko is closely related to biochemical processes in the euphotic zone. During winter months we observed very low accumulation rates of non-carbonaceous matter, while during the rest of the year, three periods of calcite deposition were recorded (April, July–August, and October–November). The periods of high calcite deposition corresponded with algal blooms and oxygen concentration maxima. Two principal factors contribute to meromixis in Lake Suminko: (1) the basin is sheltered, preventing wind mixing, and (2) biochemical processes in the lake associated with high lacustrine productivity. Meromictic conditions must control the formation and preservation of laminated sediments in the lake because preserved laminations occur only in areas where the lake floor lies below monimolimnetic waters.  相似文献   

An integrated socio-environmental framework for glacier hazard management and climate change adaptation: lessons from Lake 513, Cordillera Blanca, Peru   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mark Carey  Christian Huggel  Jeffrey Bury  César Portocarrero  Wilfried Haeberli 《Climatic change》2012,112(3-4):733-767

Glacier hazards threaten societies in mountain regions worldwide. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) pose risks to exposed and vulnerable populations and can be linked in part to long-term post-Little Ice Age climate change because precariously dammed glacial lakes sometimes formed as glaciers generally retreated after the mid-1800s. This paper provides an interdisciplinary and historical analysis of 40?years of glacier hazard management on Mount Hualcán, at glacial Lake 513, and in the city of Carhuaz in Peru’s Cordillera Blanca mountain range. The case study examines attempted hazard zoning, glacial lake evolution and monitoring, and emergency engineering projects to drain Lake 513. It also analyzes the 11 April 2010 Hualcán rock-ice avalanche that triggered a Lake 513 GLOF; we offer both a scientific assessment of the possible role of temperature on slope stability and a GIS spatial analysis of human impacts. Qualitative historical analysis of glacier hazard management since 1970 allows us to identify and explain why certain actions and policies to reduce risk were implemented or omitted. We extrapolate these case-specific variables to generate a broader socio-environmental framework identifying factors that can facilitate or impede disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Facilitating factors are technical capacity, disaster events with visible hazards, institutional support, committed individuals, and international involvement. Impediments include divergent risk perceptions, imposed government policies, institutional instability, knowledge disparities, and invisible hazards. This framework emerges from an empirical analysis of a coupled social-ecological system and offers a holistic approach for integrating disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.  相似文献