Built environment and agricultural value at risk from Hurricane Irma flooding in Florida (USA)     

Miller  Alexander J.  Arias  Mauricio E.  Alvarez  Sergio 《Natural Hazards》2021,109(2):1327-1348

Natural Hazards - Flooding is the most costly type of natural disaster, as well as the most frequent. To provide risk-based flood insurance, providers must be able to accurately determine an...  相似文献   

Implications of Japan’s long term climate mitigation target and the relevance of uncertain nuclear policy     

Diego Silva Herran  Shinichiro Fujimori  Mikiko Kainuma 《Climate Policy》2019,19(9):1117-1131

Achieving long-term climate mitigation goals in Japan faces several challenges, starting with the uncertain nuclear power policy after the 2011 earthquake, the uncertain availability and progress of energy technologies, as well as energy security concerns in light of a high dependency on fuel imports. The combined weight of these challenges needs to be clarified in terms of the energy system and macroeconomic impacts. We applied a general equilibrium energy economic model to assess these impacts on an 80% emission reduction target by 2050 considering several alternative scenarios for nuclear power deployment, technology availability, end use energy efficiency, and the price of fossil fuels. We found that achieving the mitigation target was feasible for all scenarios, with considerable reductions in total energy consumption (39%–50%), higher shares of low-carbon sources (43%–72% compared to 15%), and larger shares of electricity in the final energy supply (51%–58% compared to 42%). The economic impacts of limiting nuclear power by 2050 (3.5% GDP loss) were small compared to the lack of carbon capture and storage (CCS) (6.4% GDP loss). Mitigation scenarios led to an improvement in energy security indicators (trade dependency and diversity of primary energy sources) even in the absence of nuclear power. Moreover, preliminary analysis indicates that expanding the range of renewable energy resources can lower the macroeconomic impacts of the long term target considerably, and thus further in depth analysis is needed on this aspect.

Key policy insights

• For Japan, an emissions reduction target of 80% by 2050 is feasible without nuclear power or CCS.

• The macroeconomic impact of such a 2050 target was largest without CCS, and smallest without nuclear power.

• Energy security indicators improved in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline.

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Synergetic efficiency of Lidar and WorldView-2 for 3D urban cartography in Northeast Mexico     

Fabiola D. Yépez Rincón  Diego F. Lozano García 《国际地球制图》2019,34(2):164-178

Three-dimensional urban cartography is needed for city changes’ assessment. The variety of studies using 3D calculations of urban elements grows each year. Building and vegetation volumes are necessary to assess and understand spatio-temporal urban changeable environments. However, there are technical questions as to which method can improve 3D urban cartographic accuracy. The innovative part of this current study is the creation of a six-band hybrid obtained from LIDAR and WorldView2 synergy. Two different enhancement algorithms demonstrated the most important spectral features for the urban development and vegetation classes. Results indicated an improvement in accuracy by up to 21.3%, according to the Kappa coefficient. Both infra-red band and intensity band were the most significant, according to the principal components analysis. The synergy delimited classes and polygons, as well as the direct display of information regarding heights of elements and improving the extraction of roads, buildings and vegetation classes.  相似文献   

44 years hindcast of sea level in the Atlantic Coast of Europe     

P. Sebastião  C. Guedes Soares  E. Alvarez 《Coastal Engineering》2008

The sea level of Northeast Atlantic Ocean is calculated for the period between 1958 and 2001 using a state-of-the-art barotropic model with a grid size of 10′ × 15′ (long × lat). The model includes astronomic effects, considering seven components of the tide, and the meteorological effects of wind and atmospheric pressure, allowing obtaining the astronomic tide, the atmospheric residuals and the non-linear addition of both components of sea level.  相似文献   

Comparative Study of the Three-Dimensional Thermodynamical Structure of the Inner Corona of Solar Minimum Carrington Rotations 1915 and 2081     

Diego G. Lloveras  Alberto M. Vásquez  Federico A. Nuevo  Richard A. Frazin 《Solar physics》2017,292(10):153

Using differential emission measure tomography (DEMT) based on time series of EUV images, we carry out a quantitative comparative analysis of the three-dimensional (3D) structure of the electron density and temperature of the inner corona (\(r<1.25\,\mathrm{R}_{\odot}\)) between two specific rotations selected from the last two solar minima, namely Carrington Rotations (CR)1915 and CR-2081. The analysis places error bars on the results because of the systematic uncertainty of the sources. While the results for CR-2081 are characterized by a remarkable north–south symmetry, the southern hemisphere for CR-1915 exhibits higher densities and temperatures than the northern hemisphere. The core region of the streamer belt in both rotations is found to be populated by structures whose temperature decreases with height (called “down loops” in our previous articles). They are characterized by plasma \(\beta\gtrsim1\), and may be the result of the efficient dissipation of Alfvén waves at low coronal heights. The comparative analysis reveals that the low latitudes of the equatorial streamer belt of CR-1915 exhibit higher densities than for CR-2081. This cannot be explained by the systematic uncertainties. In addition, the southern hemisphere of the streamer belt of CR-1915 is characterized by higher temperatures and density scale heights than for CR-2081. On the other hand, the coronal hole region of CR-1915 shows lower temperatures than for CR-2081. The reported differences are in the range \({\approx}\,10\,\mbox{--}\,25\%\), depending on the specific physical quantity and region that is compared, as fully detailed in the analysis. For other regions and/or physical quantities, the uncertainties do not allow assessing the thermodynamical differences between the two rotations. Future investigation will involve a DEMT analysis of other Carrington rotations selected from both epochs, and also a comparison of their tomographic reconstructions with magnetohydrodynamical simulations of the inner corona.  相似文献   

Middle Pleistocene large‐mammal faunas from North Iberia: palaeobiogeographical and palaeoecological implications          下载免费PDF全文

Diego J. Álvarez‐Lao 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2016,45(2):191-206

The rich Quaternary fossil record from the Cantabrian region (NW Iberia) is virtually restricted to the Late Pleistocene, with Middle Pleistocene findings very rare. This work presents the study of two Middle Pleistocene palaeontological sites in the Cantabrian region: Llantrales quarry and Mestas de Con mine, both discovered and first described in the 1950s but never studied in detail thereafter. The material was here re‐analysed and re‐evaluated. Taxonomic attributions have been changed in most cases and, consequently, chronological assignments of the fossils have also been changed. This first detailed study of the assemblage from Llantrales quarry revealed the occurrence of the large‐sized deer Praemegaceros solilhacus, which has never been reported previously in North Iberia. Cervus cf. elaphus and Stephanorhinus cf. hundsheimensis were also identified. The age of these fossils was originally regarded as Pontian (late Miocene), but new palaeontological results indicate a much younger age, most likely from around 0.8 to 0.5 Ma. A taxonomic re‐evaluation of the fossils from Mestas de Con provided different results with respect to the 1950s works. The faunal association is composed of a large‐sized deer (probably corresponding to Praemegaceros), Cervus elaphus, Capreolus cf. capreolus, Bison sp. (small sized), Equus sp. (large sized), Stephanorhinus hemitoechus, Ursus sp. and Homotherim latidens. This faunal association was evaluated within a western European context and proves to be highly analogous to other contemporary assemblages there. The chronology was initially regarded as late Villafranchian (in a broader sense). New results, documenting the co‐occurrence of Stephanorhinus hemitoechus and Homotherium latidens, indicate a more precise and younger age, most likely between 0.6 and 0.4 Ma. These two fossil assemblages provide new and relevant information on the Middle Pleistocene faunas from a geographical region where this information, compared with other western European areas, is rare and poorly known.  相似文献   

Dynamics of lava flow fronts, Arenal Volcano, Costa Rica     

Andrea Borgia  Scott Linneman  Daniel Spencer  Luis Diego Morales  Jose Brenes Andre 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》1983,19(3-4)

Arenal Volcano has effused basaltic andesite lava flows nearly continuously since September, 1968. The two different kinds of material in flows, lava and lava debris, have different rheologic properties and dynamic behavior. Flow morphology depends on the relationship between the amount and distribution of the lava and the debris, and to a lesser extent the ground morphology.Two main units characterize the flows: the channel zone and the frontal zone. The channel zone consists of two different units, the levées and the channel proper. A velocity profile in the channel shows a maximum value at the plug where the rate of shear is zero, and a velocity gradient increasing outward until, at the levées, the velocity becomes zero. Cooling produces a marked temperature gradient in the flow, leading to the formation of debris by brittle fracture when a critical value of shear rate to viscosity is reached. When the lava supply ceases, much of this debris and part of the lava is left behind after the flow nucleus drains out, forming a collapsed channel.Processes at the frontal zone include levée formation, debris formation, the change in shape of the front, and the choice of the flow path. These processes are controlled primarily by the rheological properties of the lava.Frontal zone dynamics can be understood by fixing the flow front as the point of reference. The lava flows through the channel into the front where it flows out into the levées, thereby increasing the length of the channel and permitting the front to advance. The front shows a relationship of critical height to the yield strength (τ₀) surface tension, and slope; its continued movement is activated by the pressure of the advancing lava in the channel behind. For an ideal flow (isothermal, homogeneous, and isotropic) the ratio of the section of channel proper to the section of levées is calculated and the distance the front will have moved at any time t_x can be determined once the amount of lava available to the front is known. Assuming that the velocity function of the front {G(t)} during the collapsing stage is proportional to the entrance pressure of the lava at the channel-front boundary, an exponential decrease of velocity through time is predicted, which shows good agreement with actual frontal velocity measurements taken on two flows. Local variations in slope have a secondary effect on frontal velocities.Under conditions of constant volume the frontal zone can be considered as a machine that consumes energy brought in by the lava to perform work (front advancement). While the front will use its potential energy to run the process, the velocity at which it occurs is controlled by the activation energy that enters the system as the kinetic energy of the lava flowing into the front. A relation for the energy contribution due to frontal acceleration is also derived. Finally the entrance pressure, that permits the front to deform, is calculated. Its small value confirms that the lava behaves very much like a Bingham plastic.  相似文献   

Variation in upwelling intensity along the NorthWest Iberian Peninsula (Galicia)     

I. Alvarez  M. Gomez-Gesteira  M. deCastro  R. Prego 《Journal of Atmospheric & Ocean Science》2005,10(4):309-324

Thermohaline variables were simultaneously measured, July 17, 2000, at four Galician rias under favourable upwelling conditions to analyse upwelling intensity. The intensity of coastal upwelling is shown to be strongly dependent on the wind pattern. The maximum amplitudes of wind stress were observed at the western coast (0.30 Nm^-2) with southward direction (favourable to upwelling) and these are shown to be related to low temperature (12°C) and high salinity (35.8) in the estuaries mouth. From Cape Finisterre to Cape Estaca de Bares the wind stress showed a lower magnitude (0.05-0.10 Nm^-2) with a direction oblique to the coast. The temperature showed an increase (14°C) and the salinity a decrease (35.4) because the lower upwelling intensity at this part of the coast. The observed decrease in upwelling from south to north is not an isolated event, since the measured wind conditions are persistent during summer months, at least in the period with available QuikSCAT data (1999-2004).  相似文献   

Factors affecting arsenic concentration in groundwaters from Northwestern Chaco-Pampean Plain,Argentina     

María Gabriela García  Ondra Sracek  Diego Sebastián Fernández  Margarita del Valle Hidalgo 《Environmental Geology》2007,52(7):1261-1275

The concentration of arsenic measured in groundwater from three aquifers in the study area located in the Eastern Tucuman province, Argentina, mostly depends on the lithology, but the spatial and temporal variations of concentrations seem to be also controlled by pH changes, climatic factors, and human perturbations. The highest concentrations of As (more than 1,000 μg L⁻¹) were found in the shallow aquifer, made of As-rich loess, while the lowest concentrations were measured in the deep confined aquifer, consisting of alternating layers of alluvial sands/gravels and clays. Intermediate values were measured in the semiconfined aquifer made of the fluvial sediments deposited in the Salí River valley, that alternate in the upper part of the sedimentary sequence with layers of loess. Because most of As in the loess is considered to be adsorbed onto Fe-oxyhydroxide coatings, the increase of pH in the flow direction (west-east) leads to increasing arsenic concentrations towards the eastern border of the study area. The decomposition of organic wastes poured into the Salí River or associated with local and diffuse sources of contamination in the eastern part of the study area depletes dissolved oxygen, which leads to the reductive dissolution of Fe and Mn oxyhydroxides, and to the subsequent release of the adsorbed and co-precipitated As. This process mainly affects shallow groundwater and the upper part of the semiconfined aquifer. Geochemical and hydrological data also suggest that rising water table levels at the end of the wet season may also lead to reductive dissolution of As-rich Fe oxyhydroxides in the shallow aquifer.  相似文献   

Crust and Upper Mantle Structure in the Caribbean Region by Group Velocity Tomography and Regionalization     

O'Leary González  Leonardo Alvarez  Mariangela Guidarelli  Giuliano F. Panza 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(10):1985-2007

An overview of the crust and upper mantle structure of Central America and the Caribbean region is presented as a result of the processing of more than 200 seismograms recorded by digital broadband stations from SSSN and GSN seismic networks. Group velocity dispersion curves are obtained in the period range from 10s to 40s by FTAN analysis of the fundamental mode of the Rayleigh waves; the error of these measurements varies from 0.06 and 0.09 km/s. From the dispersion curve, seven tomographic maps at different periods and with average spatial resolution of 500 km are obtained. Using the logical combinatorial classification techniques, eight main groups of dispersion curves are determined from the tomographic maps and eleven main regions, each one characterized by one kind of dispersion curves, are identified. The average dispersion curves obtained for each region are extended to 150s by adding data from a larger-scale tomographic study (Vdovin et al., 1999) and inverted using a nonlinear procedure. A set of models of the S-wave velocity vs. depth in the crust and upper mantle is found as a result of the inversion process. In six regions we identify a typically oceanic crust and upper mantle structure, while in the other two the models are consistent with the presence of a continental structure. Two regions, located over the major geological zones of the accretionary crust of the Caribbean region, are characterized by a peculiar crust and upper mantle structure, indicating the presence of lithospheric roots reaching, at least, about 200 km of depth.  相似文献