The 2014 seismic hazard model of the Middle East: overview and results     

Karin Şeşetyan  Laurentiu Danciu  Mine B. Demircioğlu Tümsa  Domenico Giardini  Mustafa Erdik  Sinan Akkar  Levent Gülen  Mehdi Zare  Shota Adamia  Anooshiravan Ansari  Avetis Arakelyan  Ayşegül Askan  Mher Avanesyan  Hektor Babayan  Tamaz Chelidze  Raffi Durgaryan  Ata Elias  Hossein Hamzehloo  Khaled Hessami  Doğan Kalafat  Özkan Kale  Arkady Karakhanyan  Muhammad Asif Khan  Tahir Mammadli  Mahmood Al-Qaryouti  Mohammad Sayab  Nino Tsereteli  Murat Utkucu  Otar Varazanashvili  Muhammad Waseem  Hilal Yalçın  Mustafa Tolga Yılmaz 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(8):3535-3566

The Earthquake Model of Middle East (EMME) Project aimed to develop regional scale seismic hazard and risk models uniformly throughout a region extending from the Eastern Mediterranean in the west to the Himalayas in the east and from the Gulf of Oman in the south to the Greater Caucasus in the North; a region which has been continuously devastated by large earthquakes throughout the history. The 2014 Seismic Hazard Model of Middle East (EMME-SHM14) was developed with the contribution of several institutions from ten countries. The present paper summarizes the efforts towards building a homogeneous seismic hazard model of the region and highlights some of the main results of this model. An important aim of the project was to transparently communicate the data and methods used and to obtain reproducible results. By doing so, the use of the model and results will be accessible by a wide community, further support the mitigation of seismic risks in the region and facilitate future improvements to the seismic hazard model. To this end all data, results and methods used are made available through the web-portal of the European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (www.efehr.org).  相似文献   

Trends in extreme rainfall in the state of New South Wales,Australia   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Evan Hajani  Elias Ishak 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(13):2160-2174

The trends in annual maximum rainfall (AMR) intensity data in New South Wales, Australia, were examined. Data from 60 stations were used covering three study periods, 1955–2010, 1965–2010 and 1978–2010. Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s rho (SR) tests were applied to assess trends at local stations. Pre-whitening (PW), trend-free pre-whitening (TFPW) and the variance correction (VC) tests were used to assess the effects of serial correlation on trend results. For regional trend analysis, the regional MK test was employed. The impacts of climatic variability modes on the observed trends in AMR intensity and seasonal maximum rainfall data were investigated. It was found that positive trends were more frequent than the negative ones. The PW, TFPW and VC tests resulted in a slight reduction in the count of stations exhibiting significant positive trends. The number of stations exhibiting significant trends decreased when the impact of climate variability modes was considered.  相似文献   

A comparison of rainfall estimation techniques for sub-Saharan Africa     

Elias Symeonakis  Rogerio Bonifaçio  Nick Drake 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2009

Interpolated rain-gauge data were compared to Meteosat-based precipitation estimates for sub-Saharan Africa. Validation was carried out using a dataset from a very dense gauge network in South Africa, on a point-to-pixel (PO–PI) as well as on a pixel-to-pixel (PI–PI) basis. Error criteria computed at the gauged pixels indicate that overall the interpolated estimates perform similarly to the satellite-based data: they provide good estimates of lower but underestimate larger precipitation amounts. It is concluded that the satellite estimates are more fitted for the operational modelling of processes such as surface runoff and soil erosion, especially in the developing areas where resources are scarce.  相似文献   

The structural inventory of a small complex impact crater: Jebel Waqf as Suwwan,Jordan          下载免费PDF全文

Thomas Kenkmann  Sebastian Sturm  Tim Krüger  Elias Salameh  Marwan Al‐Raggad  Khalil Konsul 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2017,52(7):1351-1370

The investigation of terrestrial impact structures is crucial to gain an in‐depth understanding of impact cratering processes in the solar system. Here, we use the impact structure Jebel Waqf as Suwwan, Jordan, as a representative for crater formation into a layered sedimentary target with contrasting rheology. The complex crater is moderately eroded (300–420 m) with an apparent diameter of 6.1 km and an original rim fault diameter of 7 km. Based on extensive field work, IKONOS imagery, and geophysical surveying we present a novel geological map of the entire crater structure that provides the basis for structural analysis. Parametric scaling indicates that the structural uplift (250–350 m) and the depth of the ring syncline (<200 m) are anomalously low. The very shallow relief of the crater along with a NE vergence of the asymmetric central uplift and the enhanced deformations in the up‐range and down‐range sectors of the annular moat and crater rim suggest that the impact was most likely a very oblique one (~20°). One of the major consequences of the presence of the rheologically anisotropic target was that extensive strata buckling occurred during impact cratering both on the decameter as well as on the hundred‐meter scale. The crater rim is defined by a circumferential normal fault dipping mostly toward the crater. Footwall strata beneath the rim fault are bent‐up in the down‐range sector but appear unaffected in the up‐range sector. The hanging wall displays various synthetic and antithetic rotations in the down‐range sector but always shows antithetic block rotation in the up‐range sector. At greater depth reverse faulting or folding is indicated at the rim indicating that the rim fault was already formed during the excavation stage.  相似文献   

Deducing the Lateral Growth of Anticlines using Drainage Analysis and Geomorphological Features     

Sissakian  V. K.  Elias  Z.  Al-Ansari  N. 《Geotectonics》2019,53(1):140-154

Geotectonics - The Low Folded Zone in Iraq is an active tectonic area witnessing different evidences for Neotectonic activities, among them are the lateral growth of Jambour, Pulkhana, and Qumar...  相似文献   

A probabilistic approach for the classification of earthquakes as ��triggered�� or ��not triggered��     

Luigi Passarelli  Francesco Maccaferri  Eleonora Rivalta  Torsten Dahm  Elias Abebe Boku 《Journal of Seismology》2013,17(1):165-187

The occurrence time of earthquakes can be anticipated or delayed by external phenomena that induce strain energy changes on the faults. ??Anticipated?? earthquakes are generally called ??triggered??; however, it can be controversial to label a specific earthquake as such, mostly because of the stochastic nature of earthquake occurrence and of the large uncertainties usually associated to stress modelling. Here we introduce a combined statistical and physical approach to quantify the probability that a given earthquake was triggered by a given stress-inducing phenomenon. As an example, we consider an earthquake that was likely triggered by a natural event: the M?=?6.2 13 Jan 1976 Kópasker earthquake on the Grímsey lineament (Tj?rnes Fracture Zone, Iceland), which occurred about 3?weeks after a large dike injection in the nearby Krafla fissure swarm. By using Coulomb stress calculations and the rate-and-state earthquake nucleation theory, we calculate the likelihood of the earthquake in a scenario that contains only the tectonic background and excludes the dike and in a scenario that includes the dike but excludes the background. Applying the Bayes?? theorem, we obtain that the probability that the earthquake was indeed triggered by the dike, rather than purely due to the accumulation of tectonic strain, is about 60 to 90?%. This methodology allows us to assign quantitative probabilities to different scenarios and can help in classifying earthquakes as triggered or not triggered by natural or human-induced changes of stress in the crust.  相似文献   

Cluster analysis applied to the spatial and temporal variability of monthly rainfall in Mato Grosso do Sul State,Brazil     

Paulo Eduardo Teodoro  José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior  Elias Rodrigues da Cunha  Caio Cezar Guedes Correa  Francisco Eduardo Torres  Vitor Matheus Bacani  Givanildo Gois  Larissa Pereira Ribeiro 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2016,128(2):197-209

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Fen ecosystem responses to water‐level fluctuations during the early and middle Holocene in central Europe: a case study from Wilczków,Poland          下载免费PDF全文

Mateusz Płóciennik  Andrzej Kruk  Jacek Forysiak  Dominik Pawłowski  Kamila Mianowicz  Scott Elias  Ryszard K. Borówka  Marek Kloss  Milena Obremska  Marek Krąpiec  Piotr Kittel  Sławomir Żurek 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2015,44(4):721-740

This paper presents a palaeoenvironmental reconstruction of the Wilczków fen (central Poland). The fen developed in an inactive valley at the onset of the Holocene (~11 ka BP) and peat accumulation lasted until 5.7 ka BP. Multi‐proxy reconstructions were made on the basis of palaeobotanical, cladoceran, chironomid, beetle and geochemical analyses. A Kohonen self‐organizing map (SOM, unsupervised artificial neural network) of the biotic sequence distinguished four stages of fen history. Stage X₁ (11.0–10.7 ka BP) was relatively wet and cool. Organic matter started to accumulate but the habitat conditions remained unstable. Moss, sedge and fern communities then developed. Sedimentary changes reveal an intensive groundwater supply at that time. Numerous and diverse chironomid and cladoceran subfossils indicate nearly permanent aquatic conditions. During stage Y₁ (10.6–9.2 ka BP) conditions were dry and the upper peat layer desiccated. Cladocera nearly disappeared whereas chironomids were represented by semi‐terrestrial and predatory (Tanypodinae) species. Conditions started to be more reducing. All the remaining samples belonged to the interweaving stages X₂ and Y₂. Stage Y₂ (mostly 9.1–7.3 and 6.0–5.7 ka BP) was also dry but humidity increased towards the top. Oxidizing conditions occurred and the pH became more alkaline, favouring Cladium mariscus. The basin received mostly allochthonous matter input at that time. Stage X₂ (mostly 6.8–6.1 ka BP) was humid and warm. The groundwater supply remained low but there was an increase in precipitation, changing local conditions to ombrotrophic. Species‐rich chironomid and cladoceran communities were associated with temporary pools. Finally, conditions returned to those characteristic of stage Y₂. The presented reconstruction documents long‐term abiotic and biotic changes determined by water supply, including groundwater outflow, which have rarely been detected at a multi‐proxy scale. We show that inactivated valley fens are sensitive to climate‐driven hydrological fluctuations. Kohonen neural networks appear to be a promising method for analysing variability in multi‐proxy data.  相似文献   

Isotopic fingerprints of Milankovitch cycles in Pennsylvanian carbonate platform‐top deposits: the Valdorria record,Northern Spain          下载免费PDF全文

Valentin Chesnel  Óscar Merino‐Tomé  Luis Pedro Fernández  Elisa Villa  Elias Samankassou 《地学学报》2016,28(5):364-373

Sedimentary cyclic sequences deposited during the Late Palaeozoic Ice Age are widespread. Glacio‐eustatic control of the cyclic patterns is commonly accepted, and the durations of the cyclothems generally match the short‐ and long‐eccentricity Milankovitch orbital parameters. Nevertheless, geochemical fingerprints of orbital parameters are poorly documented in deep‐time sedimentary records. Here, we report on well‐exposed Bashkirian cyclothems of c. 123 ka and c. 400 ka durations from the Valdorria platform. The shorter‐term cyclothems can be grouped into longer‐term composite sequences that are consistent with generally accepted durations of c. 125 ka and c. 400 ka for Milankovitch eccentricity cycles. The stratigraphic pattern is mirrored by the isotope geochemical signals, which show distinct recurring trends. These trends are confirmed by statistical tests. Whereas intrinsic factors and/or subaerial exposure related to sea‐level lowstands might have truncated cycle patterns in tectonically stable basins, rapid subsidence of the Valdorria platform's foreland basin appears to have contributed to a faithful recording of cyclothems of different orders. The patterns and biostratigraphic constraint revealed in this study demonstrate the power of orbital forcing in imprinting sedimentary and geochemical signals in the rock record.  相似文献   

Predictability of the Meteorological Conditions Favourable to Radiative Fog Formation During the 2011 ParisFog Campaign   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Laurent Menut  Sylvain Mailler  Jean-Charles Dupont  Martial Haeffelin  Thierry Elias 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2014,150(2):277-297

Radiative fog formation is a complex phenomenon involving local physical and microphysical processes that take place when particular meteorological conditions occur. This study aims at quantifying the ability of a regional numerical weather model to analyze and forecast the conditions favourable to radiative fog formation at an instrumental site in the Paris area. Data from the ParisFog campaign have been used in order to quantify the meteorological conditions favorable to radiative fog formation (pre-fog conditions) by setting threshold values on the key meteorological variables driving this process: 2-m temperature tendency, 10-m wind speed, 2-m relative humidity and net infrared flux. Data from the ParisFog observation periods of November 2011 indicate that use of these thresholds leads to the detection of 87 % of cases in which radiative fog formation was observed. In order to evaluate the ability of a regional weather model to reproduce adequately these conditions, the same thresholds are applied to meteorological model fields in both analysis and forecast mode. It is shown that, with this simple methodology, the model detects 74 % of the meteorological conditions finally leading to observed radiative fog, and 48 % 2 days in advance. Finally, sensitivity tests are conducted in order to evaluate the impact of using larger time or space windows on the forecasting skills.  相似文献