Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses   总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0  

Tommaso Carlà  Emanuele Intrieri  Federico Di Traglia  Teresa Nolesini  Giovanni Gigli  Nicola Casagli 《Landslides》2017,14(2):517-534

Predicting the time of failure is a topic of major concern in the field of geological risk management. Several approaches, based on the analysis of displacement monitoring data, have been proposed in recent years to deal with the issue. Among these, the inverse velocity method surely demonstrated its effectiveness in anticipating the time of collapse of rock slopes displaying accelerating trends of deformation rate. However, inferring suitable linear trend lines and deducing reliable failure predictions from inverse velocity plots are processes that may be hampered by the noise present in the measurements; data smoothing is therefore a very important phase of inverse velocity analyses. In this study, different filters are tested on velocity time series from four case studies of geomechanical failure in order to improve, in retrospect, the reliability of failure predictions: Specifically, three major landslides and the collapse of an historical city wall in Italy have been examined. The effects of noise on the interpretation of inverse velocity graphs are also assessed. General guidelines to conveniently perform data smoothing, in relation to the specific characteristics of the acceleration phase, are deduced. Finally, with the aim of improving the practical use of the method and supporting the definition of emergency response plans, some standard procedures to automatically setup failure alarm levels are proposed. The thresholds which separate the alarm levels would be established without needing a long period of neither reference historical data nor calibration on past failure events.  相似文献   

The Calatabiano landslide (southern Italy): preliminary GB-InSAR monitoring data and remote 3D mapping   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Luca Lombardi  Massimiliano Nocentini  William Frodella  Teresa Nolesini  Federica Bardi  Emanuele Intrieri  Tommaso Carlà  Lorenzo Solari  Giulia Dotta  Federica Ferrigno  Nicola Casagli 《Landslides》2017,14(2):685-696

On 24 October 2015, following a period of heavy rainfall, a landslide occurred in the Calatabiano Municipality (Sicily Island, Southern Italy), causing the rupture of a water pipeline supplying water to the city of Messina. Following this event, approximately 250,000 inhabitants of the city suffered critical water shortages for several days. Consequently, on 6 November 2015, a state of emergency was declared (O.C.D.P. 295/2015) by the National Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC). During the emergency management phase, a provisional by-pass, consisting of three 350-m long pipes passing through the landslide area, was constructed to restore water to the city. Furthermore, on 11 November 2015, a landslide remote-sensing monitoring system was installed with the following purposes: (i) analyse the landslide geomorphological and kinematic features in order to assess the residual landslide risk and (ii) support the early warning procedures needed to ensure the safety of the personnel involved in the by-pass construction and the landslide stabilization works. The monitoring system was based on the combined use of Ground-Based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (GB-InSAR) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). In this work, the preliminary results of the monitoring activities and a remote 3D map of the landslide area are presented.  相似文献   

The imprint of the equation of state on the axial w-modes of oscillating neutron stars     

Omar Benhar  Emanuele Berti  Valeria Ferrari 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1999,310(3):797-803

We discuss the dependence of the pulsation frequencies of the axial quasi-normal modes of a non-rotating neutron star upon the equation of state describing the star interior. The continued fraction method has been used to compute the complex frequencies for a set of equations of state based on different physical assumptions and spanning a wide range of stiffness. The numerical results show that axial gravitational waves carry relevant information on both the structure of neutron star matter and the nature of the hadronic interactions.  相似文献   

Intrinsic and forced interannual variability of the Gulf of Alaska mesoscale circulation     

Vincent Combes  Emanuele Di Lorenzo 《Progress in Oceanography》2007,75(2):266-286

The response of the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) circulation to large-scale North Pacific climate variability is explored using three high resolution (15 km) regional ocean model ensembles over the period 1950-2004. On interannual and decadal timescales the mean circulation is strongly modulated by changes in the large scale climate forcing associated with PDO and ENSO. Intensification of the model gyre scale circulation occurs after the 1976-1977 climate shift, as well as during 1965-1970 and 1993-1995. From the model dynamical budgets we find that when the GOA experiences stronger southeasterly winds, typical during the positive phase of the PDO and ENSO, there is net large-scale Ekman convergence in the central and eastern coastal boundary. The geostrophic adjustment to higher sea surface height (SSH) and lower isopycnals lead to stronger cyclonic gyre scale circulation. The opposite situation occurs during stronger northwesterly winds (negative phase of the PDO).Along the eastern side of the GOA basin, interannual changes in the surface winds also modulate the seasonal development of high amplitude anticyclonic eddies (e.g. Haïda and Sitka eddies). Large interannual eddy events during winter-spring, are phase-locked with the seasonal cycle. The initial eddy dynamics are consistent with a quasi-linear Rossby wave response to positive SSH anomalies forced by stronger downwelling favorable winds (e.g. southwesterly during El Niño). However, because of the fast growth rate of baroclinic instability and the geographical focusing associated with the coastal geometry, most of the perturbation energy in the Rossby wave is locally trapped until converted into large scale nonlinear coherent eddies. Coastally trapped waves of tropical origin may also contribute to positive SSH anomalies that lead to higher amplitude eddies. However, their presence does not appear essential. The model ensembles, which do not include the effects of equatorial coastally trapped waves, capture the large Haïda and Sitka eddy events observed during 1982 and 1997 and explain between 40% and 70% of the tidal gauges variance along the GOA coast.In the western side of the GOA basin, interannual eddy variability located south of the Alaskan Stream is not correlated with large scale forcing and appears to be intrinsic. A comparison of the three model ensembles forced by NCEP winds and a multi-century-long integration forced only with the seasonal cycle, shows that the internal variability alone explains most of the eddy variance. The asymmetry between the eddy forced regime in the eastern basin, and the intrinsic regime in the western basin, has important implications for predicting the GOA response to climate change. If future climate change results in stronger wintertime winds and increased downwelling in the eastern basin, then increased mesoscale activity (perhaps more or larger eddies) might occur in this region. Conversely, the changes in the western basin are not predictable based on environmental forcing. Eastern eddies transport important biogeochemical quantities such as iron, oxygen and chlorophyll-a into the gyre interior, therefore having potential upscale effects on the GOA high-nutrient-low-chlorophyll region.  相似文献   

Evaluation of microwave-assisted acid extraction procedures for the determination of metal content and potential bioavailability in sediments     

Cinzia Bettiol  Lorenzo Stievano  Mariangela Bertelle  Francesca Delfino  Emanuele Argese 《Applied Geochemistry》2008

Acid extractions represent a simple and effective tool for the assessment of metal contamination, origin and bioavailability in the aquatic environment. Optimized microwave-assisted procedures utilizing two extractions (8 M HNO₃ and 1 M HCl) were developed. Particular attention was given to the evaluation of efficiency and selectivity of the developed procedures. This involved an examination of the sediment and the extraction residues by Mössbauer spectroscopy and X-ray diffractometry. These instrumental approaches were used to identify the geochemical phases associated with acid decomposition. Microwave digestion with 8 M HNO₃ produced an efficient solubilization of the most important metal-bearing phases and left unaffected only the minerals (quartz, feldspars, muscovite) with a negligible metal content, thus providing a good estimate of the total metal concentrations. The 1 M HCl extraction, despite the limitation due to the incomplete solubilization of pyrite and to the partial dissolution of sheet silicates, represents a simple and effective technique for providing an estimate of the bioavailable metal fraction in sediments. The combined use of the two microwave-assisted acid extractions can provide a rapid and simple approach for the risk assessment of metal-polluted sediments.  相似文献   

2D numerical simulations of earthquake ground motion: examples from the Marche Region,Italy     

Giovanna Laurenzano  Enrico Priolo  Emanuele Tondi 《Journal of Seismology》2008,12(3):395-412

A detailed numerical simulation of the ground motion and a site response analysis for two towns in the Marche Region (Treia and Cagli) is carried out on the basis of structural models deduced from available geological and geophysical data. In both cases, the reference event is an M = 5.7 earthquake associated with a normal fault located beneath each town. The ground motion is computed using the 2D spectral element method (SPEM 2D). The method solves the propagation of the seismic field through complex geological structures and enables an estimate of the effects of deep crustal structure, superficial geology, and topography on ground motion. Numerical simulations of the seismic field are performed along 2D vertical planes containing the seismic source. Strong ground motion has not been yet recorded in the two towns; therefore, the numerical simulation of ground motion represents a way to overcome the lack of instrumental data. The simulations carried out for Treia show that ground motion is influenced by both source mechanism and effects due to propagation through the geological structure, while ground motion in Cagli features strong local effects, caused by the presence of alluvial deposits under a large area of the town.  相似文献   

Open issues on the synthesis of evolved stellar populations at ultraviolet wavelengths     

Miguel Chavez  Emanuele Bertone 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2011,332(1):193-199

This paper deals with five-dimensional black hole solutions in (a) Einstein-Maxwell-Gauss-Bonnet theory with a cosmological constant and (b) Einstein-Yang-Mills-Gauss-Bonnet theory for spherically symmetric space time. In both the cases the possibility of phase transition is examined and it is analyzed whether the phase transition is a Hawking-Page type phase transition or not.  相似文献   

Statistical properties of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">GALEX</Emphasis> spectroscopic stellar sample     

Emanuele Bertone  Miguel Chavez 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2011,335(1):69-76

The GALEX General Data Release 4/5 includes 174 spectroscopic tiles, obtained from slitless grism observations, for a total of more than 60 000 ultraviolet spectra. We have determined statistical properties of the sample of GALEX stars. We have defined a suitable system of spectroscopic indices, which measure the main mid-UV features at the GALEX low spectral resolution and we have employed it to determine the atmospheric parameters of stars in the range 4500≲T _eff≲9000 K. Our preliminary results indicate that the majority of the sample is formed by main sequence F- and G-type stars, with metallicity [M/H]≳−1 dex.  相似文献   

Interacting Winds in Eclipsing Symbiotic Systems – The Case Study of EG Andromedae     

Emanuele Calabrò 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》2014,35(1):69-85

We report the mathematical representation of the so called eccentric eclipse model, whose numerical solutions can be used to obtain the physical parameters of a quiescent eclipsing symbiotic system. Indeed the nebular region produced by the collision of the stellar winds should be shifted to the orbital axis because of the orbital motion of the system. This mechanism is not negligible, and it led us to modify the classical concept of an eclipse. The orbital elements obtained from spectroscopy and photometry of the symbiotic EG Andromedae were used to test the eccentric eclipse model. Consistent values for the unknown orbital elements of this symbiotic were obtained. The physical parameters are in agreement with those obtained by means of other simulations for this system.  相似文献   

Event Scenario Analysis for the Design of Rockslide Countermeasures   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

GIGLI Giovanni  INTRIERI Emanuele  LOMBARDI Luca  NOCENTINI Massimiliano  FRODELLA William  BALDUCCI Marco  VENANTI Luca Domenico  CASAGLI Nicola 《山地科学学报》2014,(6):1521-1530

The Torgiovannetto quarry（Assisi municipality,central Italy） is an example of a site where the natural equilibrium was altered by human activity,causing current slope instability phenomena which threaten two roadways important for the local transportation.The quarry front,having a height of about 140 m,is affected by a 182,000 m3 rockslide developed in intensely fractured limestone and is too large to be stabilized.In 2003 some tension cracks were detected in the vegetated area above the quarry upper sector.From then on,several monitoring campaigns were carried out by means of different instrumentations（topographic total station,extensometers,inclinometers,ground-based interferometric radar,laser scanner and infrared thermal camera）,allowing researchers to accurately define the landslide area and volume.The latter’s major displacements are localized in the eastern sector.The deformational field appears to be related to the seasonal rainfall.The landslide hazard associated with the worst case scenario was evaluated in terms of magnitude,intensity and triggering mechanism.For the definition of the possible runout process the DAN 3D code was employed.The simulation results were used in order to design and construct a retaining embankment.Furthermore,in order to preserve both the safety of the personnelinvolved in its realization and of the roadways users,an early warning system was implemented.The early warning system is based on daily-averaged displacement velocity thresholds.The alarm level is reached if the prediction based on the methods of Saito（1969） and Fukuzono（1985） forecasts an imminent rupture.  相似文献