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This article analyses the trends in primary demand for fossil fuels and renewables, comparing regions with large and small domestic fossil fuel reserves. We focus on countries that hold 80% of global fossil fuel reserves and compare them with key countries that have meagre fossil fuel reserves. We show that those countries with large domestic fossil fuel reserves have experienced a large increase in primary energy demand from fossil fuels, but only a moderate or no increase in primary energy from renewables, and in particular from non-hydro renewable energy sources (NHRES), which are assumed to represent the cornerstone of the future transformation of the global energy system. This implies a tremendous threat to climate change mitigation, with only two principal mitigation options for fossil-fuel-rich economies if there is to be compliance with the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement: (1) leave the fossil fuels in the ground; and (2) apply carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. Combinations of these two options to exploit their respective possibilities synergistically will require strong initiatives and incentives to transform a certain amount of the domestic fossil fuel reserves (including the associated infrastructure) into stranded assets and to create an extensive CCS infrastructure. Our conclusion is that immediate and disruptive changes to the use of fossil fuels and investments in non-carbon-emitting technologies are required if global warming is to be limited to well below 2°C. Collective actions along value chains in business to divert from fossil fuels may be a feasible strategy.

Key policy insights

  • The main obstacle to compliance with any reasonable warming target is the abundance of fossil fuels, which has maintained and increased momentum towards new fossil-fuelled processes.

  • So far, there has been no increase in the share of NHRES in total global primary energy demand, with a clear decline in the NHRES share in India and China.

  • There is an immediate need for the global community to develop fossil fuel strategies and policies.

  • Policies must account for the global trade flow of products that typically occurs from the newly industrialized fossil fuel-rich countries to the developed countries.

  相似文献   
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Syn-tectonic quartz-calcite veins containing blue beryl are enclosed in hematite > magnetite-rich portions of the low-grade metamorphosed Fe-deposit Skály near Ryma?ov, Czech Republic. Aggregates of pale to deep blue beryl, up to 2?cm in diameter, are associated with euclase, clinochlore, hematite, albite and dravite. Complexly zoned beryl crystals consist of skeletal aggregates of beryl I randomly distributed within volumetrically dominant beryl II with narrow rims of beryl III. All types of beryl have similar contents of Na (0.32?C0.49 apfu) and Mg (0.31?C0.41 apfu) but variable contents of Fetot (0.05?C0.34 apfu) and Al (1.20?C1.62 apfu). The LA-ICP-MS study yielded elevated contents of Li, up 1,314?ppm (0.28?wt.% Li2O) in beryl I. The quartz-calcite veins represent an unusual type of low-T metamorphic-hydrothermal vein related to Fe-ore deposit characterized by single-stage fracturing and mobilization in a closed system at T~200?C300°C and CO 3 2- as a major complexing agent for the mobility of Be.  相似文献   
55.
While error propagation in GIS is a topic that has received a lot of attention, it has not been researched with 3D GIS data. We extend error propagation to 3D city models using a Monte Carlo simulation on a use case of annual solar irradiation estimation of building rooftops for assessing the efficiency of installing solar panels. Besides investigating the extension of the theory of error propagation in GIS from 2D to 3D, this paper presents the following contributions. We (1) introduce varying XY/Z accuracy levels of the geometry to reflect actual acquisition outcomes; (2) run experiments on multiple accuracy classes (121 in total); (3) implement an uncertainty engine for simulating acquisition positional errors to procedurally modelled (synthetic) buildings; (4) perform the uncertainty propagation analysis on multiple levels of detail (LODs); and (5) implement Solar3Dcity – a CityGML-compliant software for estimating the solar irradiation of roofs, which we use in our experiments. The results show that in the case of the city of Delft in the Netherlands, a 0.3/0.6 m positional uncertainty yields an error of 68 kWh/m2/year (10%) in solar irradiation estimation. Furthermore, the results indicate that the planar and vertical uncertainties have a different influence on the estimations, and that the results are comparable between LODs. In the experiments we use procedural models, implying that analyses are carried out in a controlled environment where results can be validated. Our uncertainty propagation method and the framework are applicable to other 3D GIS operations and/or use cases. We released Solar3Dcity as open-source software to support related research efforts in the future.  相似文献   
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Wildfires are an important factor of landscape dynamics in fire-prone environments of the world. In the Mediterranean, one of the most fire-susceptible environments globally, between 45,000 and 50,000 wildfires are recorded every year, causing disturbances in forest and grassland ecosystems. As a Mediterranean country, Croatia faces these problems, averaging over 1000 registered wildfires annually, with the coastal areas dominated by forest fires and continental Croatia by fires on agricultural lands. This research combines various landscape and socio-economic factors in the analysis of fire occurrence in Croatia’s southernmost region of Dalmatia. Around 275 of the largest fires (encompassing 98% of the total burnt area) registered in 2013 were investigated using OLS, and different spatial indices were employed to analyse regional variability in fire distribution. The results revealed that areas more prone to fires are the northern inland areas of Dalmatia and its entire coastal zone. Altitude and vegetation type demonstrated a correlation with fire occurrence, but an increase in population in the study area was also correlated with wildfire occurrence. Regarding vegetation, the grasslands and Mediterranean shrubland (maquis) were found to be the most fire-prone vegetation types in the study region, the distribution of which can be linked to different socio-economic and demographic processes occurring in the Eastern Adriatic.  相似文献   
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Channel belt deposits from meandering river systems commonly display an internal architecture of stacked depositional features with scoured basal contacts due to channel and bedform migration across a range of scales. Recognition and correct interpretation of these bounding surfaces is essential to reconstruction of palaeochannel dimensions and to flow modelling for hydrocarbon exploration. It is therefore crucial to understand the suite of processes that form and transfer these surfaces into the fluvial sedimentary record. Here, the numerical model ‘NAYS2D’ is used to simulate a highly sinuous meandering river with synthetic stratigraphic architectures that can be compared directly to the sedimentary record. Model results highlight the importance of spatial and temporal variations in channel depth and migration rate to the generation of channel and bar deposits. Addition of net uniform bed aggradation (due to excess sediment input) allows quantification of the preservation of meander morphology for a wide range of depositional conditions. The authors find that the effect of vertical variation in scouring due to channel migration is generally orders of magnitude larger than the effect of bed aggradation, which explains the limited impact bed aggradation has on preservation of meander morphology. Moreover, lateral differences in stratigraphy within the meander belt are much larger than the stratigraphic imprint of bed aggradation. Repeatedly produced alternations of point bar growth followed by cut‐off result in a vertical trend in channel and scour feature stacking. Importantly, this vertical stacking trend differs laterally within the meander belt. In the centre of the meander belt, the high reworking intensity results in many bounding surfaces and disturbed deposits. Closer to the margins, reworking is infrequent and thick deposits with a limited number of bounding surfaces are preserved. These marginal areas therefore have the highest preservation potential for complete channel deposits and are thus best suited for palaeochannel reconstruction.  相似文献   
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Recycling of phosphorus (P) from sediments contributes to the development of bottom-water hypoxia in many coastal systems. Here, we present results of a year-long assessment of P dynamics in sediments of a seasonally hypoxic coastal marine basin (Lake Grevelingen, the Netherlands) in 2012. Sequential phosphorus extractions (SEDEX) and X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) indicate that P was adsorbed to Fe-(III)-(oxyhydr)oxides when cable bacteria were active in the surface sediments in spring. With the onset of summer hypoxia, sulphide-induced dissolution of the Fe-(III)-(oxyhydr)oxides led to P release to the pore water and overlying water. The similarity in authigenic Ca-P concentrations in the sediment and suspended matter suggest that Ca-P is not formed in situ. The P burial efficiency was ≤ 32%. Hypoxia-driven sedimentary P recycling had a major impact on the water-column chemistry in the basin in 2012. Water-column monitoring data indicate up to ninefold higher surface water concentrations of phosphate in the basin in the late 1970s and a stronger hypoxia-driven seasonal P release from the sediment. The amplified release of P from the sediment in the past is attributed to the presence of a larger pool of Fe-bound P in the basin prior to the first onset of hypoxia. Given that P is not limiting, primary production in the basin has not been affected by the decadal changes in P availability and recycling over the past 40 years. The changes in P dynamics on decadal time scales were not recorded in sediment profiles of total P or organic C/total P.  相似文献   
60.
The interplay between fracture propagation and fluid composition and circulation has been examined by deciphering vein sequences in Silurian and Devonian limestones and shales at Kosov quarry in the Barrandian Basin. Three successive vein generations were recognised that can be attributed to different stages of a basinal cycle. Almost all generations of fracture cements host abundant liquid hydrocarbon inclusions that indicate repeated episodes of petroleum migration through the strata during burial, tectonic compression and uplift.The earliest veins that propagated prior to folding were displacive fibrous “beef” calcite veins occurring parallel to the bedding of some shale beds. Hydrocarbon inclusions within calcite possess homogenisation temperatures between 58 and 68 °C and show that the “beef” calcites originated in the deeper burial environment, during early petroleum migration from overpressured shales.E–W-striking extension veins that postdate “beef” calcite formed in response to Variscan orogenic deformations. Based on apatite fission track analysis (AFTA) data and other geological evidence, the veins probably formed 380–315 Ma ago, roughly coinciding with peak burial heating of the strata, folding and the intrusion of Variscan synorogenic granites. The veins that crosscut diagenetic cements and low-amplitude stylolites in host limestones are oriented semi-vertically to the bedding plane and are filled with cloudy, twinned calcite, idiomorphic smoky quartz and residues of hardened bitumen. Calcite and quartz cements contain abundant blue and blue–green-fluorescing primary inclusions of liquid hydrocarbons that homogenise between 50 and 110 °C. Geochemical characteristics of the fluids as revealed by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry, particularly the presence of olefins and parent aromatic hydrocarbons (phenonthrene), suggest that the oil entrapped in the inclusions experienced intense but geologically fast heating that resulted in thermal pyrolysis of its hydrocarbons. This implies that the organic fluids in the fractures may have been partly influenced by heating associated with igneous intrusions that are hidden below the surface.Subvertical N–S-striking veins represent the most recent fracturing event(s). Some of these veins are only a few millimeters thick and sparsely mineralised with thin leaf-like quartz crystals that contain tiny blue and yellow–orange-fluorescing hydrocarbon inclusions. Most of the N–S veins, however, occur as thick calcite veins that generally crystallised at 70 °C or less from H2O–NaCl solutions of variable salinity with admixture of petroleum. The origin of these fluids is interpreted in terms of deeply circulating meteoric waters that partially mixed with deep basinal fluids. Wider structural considerations combined with fission-track analysis of adjacent host sediments suggest that N–S veins formed during post-Mesozoic uplift of the area, probably in response to major Tertiary Alpine deformations transmitted far into the Bohemian Massif.  相似文献   
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