Improved reliability of ENSO hindcasts with multi-ocean analyses ensemble initialization     

Jieshun Zhu  Bohua Huang  Magdalena A. Balmaseda  James L. Kinter III  Peitao Peng  Zeng-Zhen Hu  Lawrence Marx 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(9-10):2785-2795

Currently, ensemble seasonal forecasts using a single model with multiple perturbed initial conditions generally suffer from an “overconfidence” problem, i.e., the ensemble evolves such that the spread among members is small, compared to the magnitude of the mean error. This has motivated the use of a multi-model ensemble (MME), a technique that aims at sampling the structural uncertainty in the forecasting system. Here we investigate how the structural uncertainty in the ocean initial conditions impacts the reliability in seasonal forecasts, by using a new ensemble generation method to be referred to as the multiple-ocean analysis ensemble (MAE) initialization. In the MAE method, multiple ocean analyses are used to build an ensemble of ocean initial states, thus sampling structural uncertainties in oceanic initial conditions (OIC) originating from errors in the ocean model, the forcing flux, and the measurements, especially in areas and times of insufficient observations, as well as from the dependence on data assimilation methods. The merit of MAE initialization is demonstrated by the improved El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting reliability. In particular, compared with the atmospheric perturbation or lagged ensemble approaches, the MAE initialization more effectively enhances ensemble dispersion in ENSO forecasting. A quantitative probabilistic measure of reliability also indicates that the MAE method performs better in forecasting all three (warm, neutral and cold) categories of ENSO events. In addition to improving seasonal forecasts, the MAE strategy may be used to identify the characteristics of the current structural uncertainty and as guidance for improving the observational network and assimilation strategy. Moreover, although the MAE method is not expected to totally correct the overconfidence of seasonal forecasts, our results demonstrate that OIC uncertainty is one of the major sources of forecast overconfidence, and suggest that the MAE is an essential component of an MME system.  相似文献   

皖江一次大暴雨多普勒天气雷达回波分析     

张克杰  赵青松  张华  杨开围  王文本  王玉红 《气象科技》2013,41(6):1101-1108

利用合肥多普勒天气雷达回波和各种常规资料,对2010年梅雨期皖江一次大暴雨天气过程的雷达回波进行分析,探讨短时大暴雨的回波特征。结果表明：有利的大尺度环流,充足的水汽条件和较强的上升运动是产生强降水有利的天气背景。雷达资料分析发现形成此次皖江暴雨的源地位于大别山区,强降水是由局地发展的对流回波加强合并产生的,回波的发生和发展加强常常与风场的局地强辐合区（逆风区）相联系,雨带在中低空切变线上合并加强,强降水区域尺度较大,单体回波移向和雨带走向一致,回波移动缓慢或呈准静止状态,累积雨量大,易于形成暴雨。  相似文献   

重庆主城区一次重度霾天气过程分析     

江文华  陈道劲  胡春梅 《气象科技》2013,41(2):343-346

利用NCEP再分析资料、L波段雷达探空资料、常规气象资料及自动气象站资料和空气污染资料,对2005年12月25-28日重庆主城区一次重度霾天气过程进行了分析.结果表明:此次重度霾天气过程发生在一定天气背景下,500 hPa青藏高原南侧南支槽槽区宽广,槽前西南气流较为强盛,850 hPa重庆地区持续处于均压场控制,气压梯度小,水平风速弱,且影响重庆地区的冷空气活动少、强度弱,有利于重度霾的形成和维持;低层风速较小、中低层逆温层的持续存在、气温较低也是此次重度霾形成和维持的重要条件;在未达到饱和的情况下,适当增加湿度有利于霾的加强,霾天气过程中,气溶胶粒子的吸湿增长会使能见度更加恶化.  相似文献   

NanoSIMS analysis of organic carbon from the Tissint Martian meteorite: Evidence for the past existence of subsurface organic‐bearing fluids on Mars     

Yangting Lin  Ahmed El Goresy  Sen Hu  Jianchao Zhang  Philippe Gillet  Yuchen Xu  Jialong Hao  Masaaki Miyahara  Ziyuan Ouyang  Eiji Ohtani  Lin Xu  Wei Yang  Lu Feng  Xuchao Zhao  Jing Yang  Shin Ozawa 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2014,49(12):2201-2218

Two petrographic settings of carbonaceous components, mainly filling open fractures and occasionally enclosed in shock‐melt veins, were found in the recently fallen Tissint Martian meteorite. The presence in shock‐melt veins and the deuterium enrichments (δD up to +1183‰) of these components clearly indicate a pristine Martian origin. The carbonaceous components are kerogen‐like, based on micro‐Raman spectra and multielemental ratios, and were probably deposited from fluids in shock‐induced fractures in the parent rock of Tissint. After precipitation of the organic matter, the rock experienced another severe shock event, producing the melt veins that encapsulated a part of the organic matter. The C isotopic compositions of the organic matter (δ¹³C = ?12.8 to ?33.1‰) are significantly lighter than Martian atmospheric CO₂ and carbonate, providing a tantalizing hint for a possible biotic process. Alternatively, the organic matter could be derived from carbonaceous chondrites, as insoluble organic matter from the latter has similar chemical and isotopic compositions. The presence of organic‐rich fluids that infiltrated rocks near the surface of Mars has significant implications for the study of Martian paleoenvironment and perhaps to search for possible ancient biological activities on Mars.  相似文献   

东昆仑三维重力异常解释方法研究     

胡宁 《青海国土经略》1996,(2)

小波变换是一种广泛应用的信号处理技术,它具有良好的时—频局部化特性。本文探讨了小波变换在分解重力异常中的应用。同时,利用计算机对重力资料的三维定量解释,进行了初步试算。通过东昆仑地区实际资料处理,认为这二种方法在重力资料处理解释中,具有快速、简捷的特点。  相似文献   

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF INTERANNUAL AND INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY OF SURFACE WIND OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

吴爱明  赵永平  白学志  胡敦欣 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2002,20(1):1-8

A global atmospheric general circulation model (L9R15 AGCMs) forced by COADS SST was integrated from 1945 to 1993. Interannual and interdecadal variability of the simulated surface wind over the tropical Pacific was analyzed and shown to agree vey well with observation. Simulation of surface wind over the central-western equatorial Pacific was more successful than that over the eastern Pacific. Zonal propagating feature of interannual variability of the tropical Pacific wind anomalies and its decadal difference were also simulated successfully. The close agreement between simulation and observation on the existence of obvious interdecadal variability of tropical Pacific surface wind attested to the high simulation capability of AGCM.  相似文献   

实时相关跟踪图像处理系统     

林佳本  邓元勇  胡柯良  艾国祥 《天文研究与技术》2006,3(4):345-354

文章介绍了怀柔太阳观测基地最近完成的一套实时高分辨太阳磁场观测系统。系统采用局部相关跟踪算法来提高磁场观测数据的空间分辨率，同时对相关跟踪算法的实现程序进行了优化以满足常规太阳磁场观测的要求。通过对试观测和常规观测数据的分析，我们发现：1）该系统能够大大提高单色像、磁场数据的对比度和空间分辨率；2）对相关跟踪算法的优化大大提高了系统的时间分辨率，系统可以投入常规观测使用。  相似文献   

AN ACCURATE MODEL FOR CALCULATING CORRECTION OF PATH FLEXURE OF SATELLITE SIGNALS     

Li Yanxing  Hu Xinkang  Shuai Ping  Zhang Zhongfu 《大地测量与地球动力学》2003,23(Z1)

1　IntroductionTherefractionoflight electronicsignalpropa gatinginatmospherehasbeenstudiedbymanysci entistsandsomemodelofatmosphericrefractioncorreetionhaveheenestablished ,includingHopfieldSaastamoinen,DavisandMarinimodels[1 ] .Butthesemodelscanbeusedonlytocalculatethecorrec tionfortherefractionduetoatmosphericdensityvariation ,whilethecorrectionfortherefractionduetothesignalpathflexurecannotbecalculated .Hop fieldhasestimatedsignalpathflexureerrorbythemethodofraytracing[2 ] ,butastrictcorr…  相似文献   

井中地震用于陆相储层分析的几项技术     

朱光明  刘永华  王玉贵  高静怀  胡建平  孙渊  张志禹 《地球科学与环境学报》1997,(3)

中国陆相储层分布广泛，类型复杂，横向变化大，勘探开发成本高，进行储层分析要求采用高新技术和综合利用多种方法。本文总结了在我国几个油区进行陆相储层分析的几项地震技术即：垂直地震剖面（ＶＳＰ）技术，多偏移距和井间层析成象技术以及多参数分析和综合解释技术，在适应我国经济发展的水平和现状的条件下，用以解决我国复杂的陆相油气储层分析的问题。  相似文献   

移动Agent 在集群系统中的应用研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

龙海 《成都信息工程学院学报》2005,20(1):50-53

从任务级的角度，在基于主／从模式的集群系统中引入了移动Agent技术，建立了基于移动Agent的并行计算模型。基于该模型，对移动Agent之间的通信接口、容错机制和负载平衡策略等问题进行了研究。  相似文献