Complexity   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Gómez-Hernández JJ 《Ground water》2006,44(6):782-785

It is difficult to define complexity in modeling. Complexity is often associated with uncertainty since modeling uncertainty is an intrinsically difficult task. However, modeling uncertainty does not require, necessarily, complex models, in the sense of a model requiring an unmanageable number of degrees of freedom to characterize the aquifer. The relationship between complexity, uncertainty, heterogeneity, and stochastic modeling is not simple. Aquifer models should be able to quantify the uncertainty of their predictions, which can be done using stochastic models that produce heterogeneous realizations of aquifer parameters. This is the type of complexity addressed in this article.  相似文献   

Mesocosm experiments for evaluating the biological efficacy of ozone treatment of marine ballast water     

Perrins JC  Cordell JR  Ferm NC  Grocock JL  Herwig RP 《Marine pollution bulletin》2006,52(12):1756-1767

Ballast water is a major pathway for the transfer of non-indigenous species in aquatic environments. The objectives of this study were to determine the ability of ozone to reduce the numbers of a spectrum of marine organisms collected from Puget Sound, Washington in replicated mesocosm (280 l) experiments, and estimate the minimum ozone concentrations as measured by total residual oxidant (TRO) required to reduce organism densities. Ozone treatment was effective in removing bacteria, phytoplankton, and mesozooplankton with initial TRO concentrations of 2–5 mg l⁻¹ as Br₂. Persistence of TRO resulted in an extended period of toxicity and cumulative mortality. TRO decay allowed bacteria populations to multiply when TRO levels fell below 0.5–1.0 mg l⁻¹ as Br₂. Phytoplankton chlorophyll a concentrations were rapidly reduced by ozone treatment and did not increase in any treatments or controls because of lack of light. Overall mesozooplankton viability was rapidly reduced by 90–99% in treatment TRO levels above 1.85 mg l⁻¹ as Br₂. Our study outlines novel protocols that can be used for testing different potential ballast water treatment systems in replicated and controlled mesocosm experiments.  相似文献   

Climate variability and the Peruvian scallop fishery: the role of formal institutions in resilience building     

Marie-Caroline Badjeck  Jaime Mendo  Matthias Wolff  Hellmuth Lange 《Climatic change》2009,94(1-2):211-232

Peru experiences recurrent ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) events during which the Peruvian bay scallop (Argopecten purpuratus) undergoes substantial changes in its stock size. In the North of the country strong warm ENSO events are synonymous with floods and river discharges that negatively affect scallop biomass, while in the South increased sea surface temperatures lead to an increase in stock size. This paper explores how formal institutions respond to climate variability and resource fluctuations in the scallop fishery, and what role they play in the maintenance or erosion of resilience. The research shows that formal institutions are slow to learn, self-reorganize and respond to climate variability while fishermen’s responses are spontaneous, ensuring a rapid process of individual adaptation. Institutional responses are mostly ex-post, and are not strongly shaped by past experience, thus eroding the resilience of the system. However, fishermen’s responses sometimes lead to negative outcomes such as local stock overexploitation or ‘invasion’ of natural scallop habitats for scallop grow-out, and formal institutions play an important role in resilience building through the control of effort and entry in the fishery. In this paper causal loop diagrams are used to conceptualize the fishery system to highlight key variables and processes. The study thus provides the opportunity to explore the usefulness of causal loop diagrams and conceptual models combined with participatory approaches in the exploration of the resilience of a system. The case study also illustrates that individual adaptation, a feature of resilience, is occurring and will occur spontaneously, changing property right regimes and responding not only to climate variability but also market forces. In order to maintain and build resilience and engender positive management outcomes, formal institutions not only need to shape fishermen decision-making, they must also contribute to knowledge building as well as the adoption of innovative approaches.  相似文献   

Hill’s approximation in a restricted four-body problem     

Jaime Burgos-García  Marian Gidea 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2015,122(2):117-141

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Transport upscaling using multi-rate mass transfer in three-dimensional highly heterogeneous porous media     

Liangping Li  Haiyan Zhou  J. Jaime Gómez-Hernández 《Advances in water resources》2011,34(4):478-489

A methodology for transport upscaling of three-dimensional highly heterogeneous formations is developed and demonstrated. The overall approach requires a prior hydraulic conductivity upscaling using an interblock-centered full-tensor Laplacian-with-skin method followed by transport upscaling. The coarse scale transport equation includes a multi-rate mass transfer term to compensate for the loss of heterogeneity inherent to all upscaling processes. The upscaling procedures for flow and transport are described in detail and then applied to a three-dimensional highly heterogeneous synthetic example. The proposed approach not only reproduces flow and transport at the coarse scale, but it also reproduces the uncertainty associated with the predictions as measured by the ensemble variability of the breakthrough curves.  相似文献   

Macro benthic community assemblage before and after the 2007 tsunami and earthquake at Paracas Bay,Peru     

Betina J. Lomovasky  Fausto N. Firstater  Alex Gamarra Salazar  Jaime Mendo  Oscar O. Iribarne 《Journal of Sea Research》2011,65(2):205-212

Macrobenthic soft bottom community assemblages were studied from December 2006 to December 2007 at Paracas Bay (Atenas Beach, 13°45' S, 76°17' W, Peru), including the period of the tsunami of 15 August 2007, providing a unique opportunity to assess the effects of this type of natural disturbance in soft bottom marine ecosystems. The results show that the tsunami affected the soft bottom community assemblage by changing the sediment granulometry, the biomass and abundance of epifaunal species, and by increasing the silt proportion. The event affected all functional groups, resulting in an increased numbers and biomass of filter feeder and grazers that were followed soon after by predators during the post-tsunami period. A similar pattern was observed for biomass and the abundance of infaunal species without changing the functional groups. The slow recovery observed after four months was likely related to the loss of sediment stability. In summary, there were differences in the structure and composition of soft bottom macrofaunal assemblages before and after the earthquake and posterior tsunami disturbance, forcing benthic communities to initiate re-colonisation processes.  相似文献   

Linking reforestation policies with land use change in northern Vietnam: Why local factors matter   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Floriane Clement  Jaime M. Amezaga 《Geoforum》2008,39(1):265-277

In many countries worldwide, similar state policies on land management have been implemented as a response to deforestation in mountainous areas. So far, few studies have examined to which extent these policies have actually contributed to reforestation. This is the focus of our analysis, based on a case study in Vietnam. Because land access and land use were traditionally governed by common rules, we examine land use changes from an institutional perspective. We use the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework, coupled with an historical perspective and the analysis of actors’ perception and dominant narratives on land management and forests. Results show that national policies significantly interfered with local factors, leading to a complex course of decision-making and action. Substantial reforestation in the area was not a response by farmers to policy incentives but rather the unexpected outcome of the disruption of local institutions by these policies. We argue that, because national interventions have relied on false or exaggerated narratives and beliefs, their implementation is in conflict with the local reality in upland areas, leading to unpredictable and locally dependent outcomes. We defend hence the need for local level studies and also recommend considering local institutions for land use change analysis in contexts where land use systems are characterised by a high degree of human interaction.  相似文献   

A combined single range and single image device for low-cost measurement of building façade features     

Celestino  Ordóñez  Pedro  Arias  José  Herráez  Jaime  Rodríguez  María T.  Martín 《The Photogrammetric Record》2008,23(122):228-240

The dimensions of building façades and window apertures are usually determined by making direct measurements using tapes and plummets. This approach, however, has a number of drawbacks including the physical risk to which the persons making the measurements are exposed. This paper proposes an indirect approach based on close range photogrammetry that is inexpensive, simple, fast and safe, and which does not require specialist staff or direct ground control measurements. The method is based on taking a picture using a digital camera and measuring the distance to the object using a handheld laser distance meter. Both items of equipment are mounted on a specially designed support that allows the laser distance meter to move independently of the camera.  相似文献   

Practical use of Phragmites australis to study evapotranspiration in a wetland zone of Lake Balaton (southwest Hungary)     

Anda  Angela  Soos  Gabor  Teixeira da Silva  Jaime A. 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,127(3-4):899-909

In the present study, evapotranspiration (ET) data from a common reed-dominated wetland and its meteorological controls was analysed using measured ET (ET _m) in compensation evapotranspirometers. Six seasons in the time period between 2003 and 2012 were assessed with the objective of converting theoretical observations into long-term practical use. They reveal the effects of annual fluctuations and allow for a more exact understanding of the results of ET losses, which remain an elusive and substantial part of the hydrologic budget particularly in wetland habitats. Daily measured ET rates were strongly influenced by weather variables causing considerable variation of ET characteristics between the two distinguished season types. The results of multiple stepwise regression analysis showed that the major meteorological elements impacting the sum of seasonal ET was much higher in the warm growing seasons (857 mm), due to increased available energy for ET, than in the cool season (385 mm). The sum of average ET totalled 778.6 mm over measurements. A simplified water budget analysis confirmed that adequate water volume, caused by precipitation, entered the Kis-Balaton wetland (KBW) area during the cool season. Conversely, in warm seasons, only 21.5 % of total ET resulted from rainfall, accentuating its seasonality in wetland. This information about annual variability of long-term ET values would assist in finding an ideal solution for determining the proper water level needed. The current balance of habitat types in wetland should be permanently assessed by selection of the suitable water level in order to sustain the most appropriate wetland ecological conditions.

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Special Issue on Environmental Geostatistics     

J. Jaime Gómez-Hernández  Celine Scheidt 《Mathematical Geosciences》2013,45(5):507-509

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