Regionalisation of population growth projections in coastal exposure analysis     

Jan-Ludolf Merkens  Daniel Lincke  Jochen Hinkel  Sally Brown  Athanasios Thomas Vafeidis 《Climatic change》2018,151(3-4):413-426

Large-area coastal exposure and impact analysis has focussed on using sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios and has placed little emphasis on socioeconomic scenarios, while neglecting spatial variations of population dynamics. We use the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) Framework to assess the population exposed to 1 in 100-year coastal flood events under different population scenarios, that are consistent with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs); and different SLR scenarios, derived from the representative concentration pathways (RCPs); and analyse the effect of accounting for regionalised population dynamics on population exposure until 2100. In a reference approach, we use homogeneous population growth on national level. In the regionalisation approaches, we test existing spatially explicit projections that also account for urbanisation, coastal migration and urban sprawl. Our results show that projected global exposure in 2100 ranges from 100 million to 260 million, depending on the combination of SLR and population scenarios and method used for regionalising the population projections. The assessed exposure based on the regionalised approaches is higher than that derived from the reference approach by up to 60 million people (39%). Accounting for urbanisation and coastal migration leads to an increase in exposure, whereas considering urban sprawl leads to lower exposure. Differences between the reference and the regionalised approaches increase with higher SLR. The regionalised approaches show highest exposure under SSP5 over most of the twenty-first century, although total population in SSP5 is the second lowest overall. All methods project the largest absolute growth in exposure for Asia and relative growth for Africa.  相似文献   

Late Quaternary growth and decay of the Svalbard/Barents Sea ice sheet and paleoceanographic evolution in the adjacent Arctic Ocean     

Jochen Knies  Christoph Vogt  Ruediger Stein 《Geo-Marine Letters》1999,18(3):195-202

 The paleoceanography in the Nordic seas was characterized by apparently repeated switching on and off of Atlantic water advection. In contrast, a continous influx of Atlantic waters probably occurred along the northern Barents Sea margin during the last 150 ka. Temporary ice-free conditions enhanced by subsurface Atlantic water advection and coastal polynyas accelerated the final ice sheet build-up during glacial times. The virtually complete dissolution of biogenic calcite during interglacial intervals was controlled mainly by CO₂-rich bottom waters and oxidation of higher levels of marine organic carbon and indicates intensive Atlantic water inflow and a stable ice margin. Received: 25 February 1997 / Revision received: 4 March 1998  相似文献   

Chemical evolution in the high arsenic groundwater of the Huhhot basin (Inner Mongolia,PR China) and its difference from the western Bengal basin (India)     

Abhijit Mukherjee  Prosun Bhattacharya  Fei Shi  Alan E. Fryar  Arun B. Mukherjee  Zheng M. Xie  Gunnar Jacks  Jochen Bundschuh 《Applied Geochemistry》2009

Elevated As concentrations in groundwater of the Huhhot basin (HB), Inner Mongolia, China, and the western Bengal basin (WBB), India, have been known for decades. However, few studies have been performed to comprehend the processes controlling overall groundwater chemistry in the HB. In this study, the controls on solute chemistry in the HB have been interpreted and compared with the well-studied WBB, which has a very different climate, physiography, lithology, and aquifer characteristics than the HB. In general, there are marked differences in solute chemistry between HB and WBB groundwaters. Stable isotopic signatures indicate meteoric recharge in the HB in a colder climate, distant from the source of moisture, in comparison to the warm, humid WBB. The major-ion composition of the moderately reducing HB groundwater is dominated by a mixed-ion (Ca–Na–HCO₃–Cl) hydrochemical facies with an evolutionary trend along the regional hydraulic gradient. Molar ratios and thermodynamic calculations show that HB groundwater has not been affected by cation exchange, but is dominated by weathering of feldspars (allitization) and equilibrium with gibbsite and anorthite. Mineral weathering and mobilization of As could occur as recharging water flows through fractured, argillaceous, metamorphic or volcanic rocks in the adjoining mountain-front areas, and deposits solutes near the center of the basin. In contrast, WBB groundwater is Ca–HCO₃-dominated, indicative of calcite weathering, with some cation exchange and silicate weathering (monosiallitization).  相似文献   

Determination of deployment specific chemical uptake rates for SPMD and PDMS using a passive flow monitor   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

O'Brien D  Komarova T  Mueller JF 《Marine pollution bulletin》2012,64(5):1005-1011

Passive sampling techniques facilitate the time-integrated measurement of pollutant concentrations through the use of a selective receiving phase. Accurate quantification using passive sampling devices rely on the implementation of methods that will negate the effects of environmental factors (flow, temperature, etc.) or that will allow the calculation of the chemical specific rates of uptake (R(s)) into the passive sampler employed. We have applied an in situ calibration technique based on the dissolution of gypsum to measure the average water velocity to which a sampler has been exposed. We demonstrate that the loss of gypsum from the passive flow monitor (PFM) can be applied to predict changes in R(s) dependent on flow when using the absorbent SPMD (semipermeable membrane device) and PDMS (polydimethyl siloxan) passive samplers. The application of the PFM will enhance the accuracy of measurements made when calculating and reporting environmental pollutant concentrations using a passive sampling device.  相似文献   

Dynamics of the circulation in the Sea of Marmara: numerical modeling experiments and observations from the Turkish straits system experiment   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1  

Jacopo?ChiggiatoEmail author  Ewa?Jarosz  Jeffrey?W.?Book  James?Dykes  Lucio?Torrisi  Pierre-Marie?Poulain  Riccardo?Gerin  Jochen?Horstmann  ?ükrü?Be?iktepe 《Ocean Dynamics》2012,62(1):139-159

During September 2008 and February 2009, the NR/V Alliance extensively sampled the waters of the Sea of Marmara within the framework of the Turkish Straits System (TSS) experiment coordinated by the NATO Undersea Research Centre. The observational effort provided an opportunity to set up realistic numerical experiments for modeling the observed variability of the Marmara Sea upper layer circulation at mesoscale resolution over the entire basin during the trial period, complementing relevant features and forcing factors revealed by numerical model results with information acquired from in situ and remote sensing datasets. Numerical model solutions from realistic runs using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) produce a general circulation in the Sea of Marmara that is consistent with previous knowledge of the circulation drawn from past hydrographic measurements, with a westward meandering current associated with a recurrent large anticyclone. Additional idealized numerical experiments illuminate the role various dynamics play in determining the Sea of Marmara circulation and pycnocline structure. Both the wind curl and the strait flows are found to strongly influence the strength and location of the main mesoscale features. Large displacements of the pycnocline depth were observed during the sea trials. These displacements can be interpreted as storm-driven upwelling/downwelling dynamics associated with northeasterly winds; however, lateral advection associated with flow from the Straits also played a role in some displacements.  相似文献   

Preface to the special issue “Strategic applications of real-time risk mitigation strategies and tools: case studies and lessons learned in REAKT”     

Carlo Cauzzi  Paolo Gasparini  Stefan Wiemer  Jochen Zschau 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2016,14(9):2437-2439

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Sources and behavior of arsenic and trace elements in groundwater and surface water in the Poopó Lake Basin,Bolivian Altiplano     

Oswaldo Eduardo Ramos Ramos  Luis Fernando Cáceres  Mauricio Rodolfo Ormachea Muñoz  Prosun Bhattacharya  Israel Quino  Jorge Quintanilla  Ondra Sracek  Roger Thunvik  Jochen Bundschuh  Maria Eugenia García 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,66(3):793-807

Water management in semiarid and arid catchments such as the Poopó Lake Basin requires improved understanding of the complex behavior of the various contaminants, which affect the drinking water quality and considered as crucial for sustainable development of the region. Mechanisms of arsenic (As) release in the surface and groundwater were studied. Hydrochemical data for surface water (4 samples) and groundwater (28 samples) were collected in a small watershed in the Poopó catchment at the highland of the Bolivian Andes (Altiplano). All of them show high electrical conductivity values and moderately oxidizing conditions. The surface water contains high concentration of sulfate and the trace elements As, Zn and Pb in the zone affected by acid mine drainage. There is a large variability of the concentration of As and of the trace elements in the groundwater in the five different regions within the Poopó catchment. The metal concentrations sensitive to changes of redox state and results of speciation modeling suggest that As (V) is a predominant aqueous species, which conforms to the prevailing oxidizing conditions in the shallow groundwater environment. Two generalized trends for As distribution were identified in groundwater: (a) high concentrations are found in the arid zone (100–250 μg/L) in the southern (region III) and in the northwestern (region V) regions, and (b) low concentrations (<50 μg/L) are found in the remaining part of the basin (region I, II and IV). However, the spatial distribution within these regions needs to be investigated further. A conclusion from the present study is that there are multiple sources of As as well as other trace elements (such as Cd, Mn and Zn) in the Poopó Lake Basin. Among the sources and the processes which led to the mobility of As and other trace metals in the region are: (a) weathering of sulfide minerals, (b) oxidation of pyrite and/or arsenopyrite in mineralized areas and (c) desorption from hydrous ferric oxide (HFO) surfaces. In non-mining areas, volcanic ash is suggested to be a significant source of As.  相似文献   

“Indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity”: Towards a clarification of the science–policy interface     

Jochen Hinkel   《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(1):198-208

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Classifying knowledge on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in Europe for informing adaptation research and decision-making: A conceptual meta-analysis   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Mareen E. Hofmann  Jochen HinkelMarkus Wrobel 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(3):1106-1116

Knowledge on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability is fragmented, because it is found in disparate case studies which use inconsistent terminology and focus on distinct aspects relevant to adaptation. While large-scale syntheses such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provide a high level overview and are useful for international decision-making, there is a need for systematic and flexible access to this research-based knowledge in order to aid future adaptation research and decision-making. Against this background, we present a ‘conceptual’ meta-analysis, a novel approach to meta-analyse studies on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in Europe. The meta-analysis results in a classification scheme for relating the diverse studies. This scheme consists of (i) a classification of studies according to the type of adaptation-relevant results they produce and (ii) a hierarchical classification of the regional and thematic context of studies. The implementation of this scheme, for example in the form of a database, overcomes some of the identified gaps of current adaptation knowledge representation. We furthermore present a quantitative analysis of the classified studies that exemplifies how the developed classification scheme can be applied to get a systematic and quantitative overview of the knowledge they contain. Thus, the conceptual meta-analysis and the classification scheme represent a first step towards a systematisation of knowledge on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability and may be seen as a useful complement to qualitative literature reviews.  相似文献   

Quantitative multi-risk analysis for natural hazards: a framework for multi-risk modelling   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Jochen Schmidt  Iain Matcham  Stefan Reese  Andrew King  Rob Bell  Roddy Henderson  Graeme Smart  Jim Cousins  Warwick Smith  Dave Heron 《Natural Hazards》2011,58(3):1169-1192

This paper introduces a generic framework for multi-risk modelling developed in the project ‘Regional RiskScape’ by the Research Organizations GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand. Our goal was to develop a generic technology for modelling risks from different natural hazards and for various elements at risk. The technical framework is not dependent on the specific nature of the individual hazard nor the vulnerability and the type of the individual assets. Based on this generic framework, a software prototype has been developed, which is capable of ‘plugging in’ various natural hazards and assets without reconfiguring or adapting the generic software framework. To achieve that, we developed a set of standards for treating the fundamental components of a risk model: hazards, assets (elements at risk) and vulnerability models (or fragility functions). Thus, the developed prototype system is able to accommodate any hazard, asset or fragility model, which is provided to the system according to that standard. The software prototype was tested by modelling earthquake, volcanic ashfall, flood, wind, and tsunami risks for several urban centres and small communities in New Zealand.  相似文献