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31.
The benefits of climate change mitigation in integrated assessment models: the role of the carbon cycle and climate component 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Andries F. Hof Chris W. Hope Jason Lowe Michael D. Mastrandrea Malte Meinshausen Detlef P. van Vuuren 《Climatic change》2012,113(3-4):897-917
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are an important tool to compare the costs and benefits of different climate policies. Recently, attention has been given to the effect of different discounting methods and damage estimates on the results of IAMs. One aspect to which little attention has been paid is how the representation of the climate system may affect the estimated benefits of mitigation action. In that respect, we analyse several well-known IAMs, including the newest versions of FUND, DICE and PAGE. Given the role of IAMs in integrating information from different disciplines, they should ideally represent both best estimates and the ranges of anticipated climate system and carbon cycle behaviour (as e.g. synthesised in the IPCC Assessment reports). We show that in the longer term, beyond 2100, most IAM parameterisations of the carbon cycle imply lower CO2 concentrations compared to a model that captures IPCC AR4 knowledge more closely, e.g. the carbon-cycle climate model MAGICC6. With regard to the climate component, some IAMs lead to much lower benefits of mitigation than MAGICC6. The most important reason for the underestimation of the benefits of mitigation is the failure in capturing climate dynamics correctly, which implies this could be a potential development area to focus on. 相似文献
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This paper examines different concepts of a ‘warming commitment’ which is often used in various ways to describe or imply that a certain level of warming is irrevocably committed to over time frames such as the next 50 to 100 years, or longer. We review and quantify four different concepts, namely (1) a ‘constant emission warming commitment’, (2) a ‘present forcing warming commitment’, (3) a‘zero emission (geophysical) warming commitment’ and (4) a ‘feasible scenario warming commitment’. While a ‘feasible scenario warming commitment’ is probably the most relevant one for policy making, it depends centrally on key assumptions as to the technical, economic and political feasibility of future greenhouse gas emission reductions. This issue is of direct policy relevance when one considers that the 2002 global mean temperatures were 0.8± 0.2 °C above the pre-industrial (1861–1890) mean and the European Union has a stated goal of limiting warming to 2 °C above the pre-industrial mean: What is the risk that we are committed to overshoot 2 °C? Using a simple climate model (MAGICC) for probabilistic computations based on the conventional IPCC uncertainty range for climate sensitivity (1.5 to 4.5 °C), we found that (1) a constant emission scenario is virtually certain to overshoot 2 °C with a central estimate of 2.0 °C by 2100 (4.2 °C by 2400). (2) For the present radiative forcing levels it seems unlikely that 2 °C are overshoot. (central warming estimate 1.1 °C by 2100 and 1.2 °C by 2400 with ～10% probability of overshooting 2 °C). However, the risk of overshooting is increasing rapidly if radiative forcing is stabilized much above 400 ppm CO2 equivalence (1.95 W/m2) in the long-term. (3) From a geophysical point of view, if all human-induced emissions were ceased tomorrow, it seems ‘exceptionally unlikely’ that 2 °C will be overshoot (central estimate: 0.7 °C by 2100; 0.4 °C by 2400). (4) Assuming future emissions according to the lower end of published mitigation scenarios (350 ppm CO2eq to 450 ppm CO2eq) provides the central temperature projections are 1.5 to 2.1 °C by 2100 (1.5 to 2.0 °C by 2400) with a risk of overshooting 2 °C between 10 and 50% by 2100 and 1–32% in equilibrium. Furthermore, we quantify the ‘avoidable warming’ to be 0.16–0.26 °C for every 100 GtC of avoided CO2 emissions – based on a range of published mitigation scenarios. 相似文献
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Sz. Rózsa B. Heck M. Mayer K. Seitz M. Westerhaus K. Zippelt 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2005,94(4):538-549
The Upper Rhine graben is a north–northeast trending rift system, which belongs to the European Cenozoic rift system. Today, the southern part of the graben is seismically still active. Earthquakes of magnitude 5 have a recurrence time of approximately 30 years. In order to monitor and to determine the displacements in the study area, GPS measurements have been carried out in two campaigns (1999 and 2000), and observations of the available permanent stations have been processed in 2002. Owing to the small size of deformations expected, high accuracy requirements must be met by the GPS processing. In order to achieve these requirements, precise antenna modeling has been introduced into the processing. As expected the short time span has not enabled to detect significant displacements from the GPS measurements. The deformation analysis shows that the horizontal displacement rates do not exceed 1 mm/year, which is compatible with the geological information. Owing to the fact that the accuracy of positioning with GPS for the vertical coordinates is lower than for the horizontal coordinates, the determination of vertical displacements has been carried out using the leveling technique. In the area of Freiburg, first-order and second-order leveling lines have been chosen for the detection of local displacements on the Weinstetten, on the Lehen-Schönberg and on the Main Border Fault (MBF). Some sections of these faults are still active today. Significant vertical displacements have been observed at the Weinstetten fault in the area of Bad Krozingen and on the MBF in Freiburg. The displacement rates (1925–1984) are 0.17±0.01 mm/year and 0.25±0.02 mm/year respectively. The results agree very well with the results of seismotectonic investigations, and show that ongoing displacements can be found on the northern part of the Lehen-Schönberg fault in the vicinity of Eichstetten, and on the MBF in the vicinity of Freiburg. 相似文献
34.
Lake Vostok, isolated from direct exchange with the atmosphere by about 4 km of ice for millions of years, provides a unique
environment. This inaccessibility raises the importance of numerical models to investigate the physical conditions within
the lake. Using a three-dimensional numerical model and the best available geometry, we test different parameter settings
to define a standard model configuration suitable for studying flow in this subglacial lake. From our model runs we find a
baroclinic circulation within the lake that splits into three different parts: Along a topographic ridge in the northern part
of Lake Vostok, bottom water masses are transported eastward, diverging away from the ridge. In the lake’s surface layer,
the flow in these two vertical overturning cells has opposite directions. In the southern part of the lake, where freezing
occurs across about 3,500 km2, two opposing gyres split the water column vertically. The general flow is stronger in the southern basin with horizontal
velocities in the order of 1 mm/s. The strongest upwelling, found in the eastern part of this basin, is about 25 μm/s. We estimate the lower limit of the overturning timescale to be about 2.5 years vertically and 8.6 years horizontally.
The basal mass loss of ice from the ice sheet floating on the lake is 5.6 mm/year (equivalent to a fresh water flux of 2.78 m3/s, or a basal ice loss of 0.09 km3/year). This imbalance indicates either a constant growth of the lake or its continuous (or periodical) discharge into a subglacial
drainage system. 相似文献
35.
We present an analytical form of the layer propagator matrix for the response of a locally incompressible, layered, linear‐viscoelastic sphere to an external load assuming that the initial density stratification ϱ 0 ( r ) within each layer is parametrized by Darwin's law. From this, we show that the relaxation of a sphere consisting of locally incompressible layers is governed by a discrete set of viscous modes. The explicit dependence of the layer propagator matrix on the Laplace transform variable allows us to determine the amplitudes of the viscous modes analytically. Employing Darwin's parametrization, we construct three simplified earth models with different initial density gradients that are used to compare the effects of the local incompressibility constraint, div ( ϱ 0 u )=0, and the material incompressibility constraint, div u =0, on viscoelastic relaxation. We show that a locally incompressible earth model relaxes faster than a materially incompressible model. This is a consequence of the fact that the perturbations of the initial density are zero during viscoelastic relaxation of a locally incompressible medium, so that there are no internal buoyancy forces associated with the continuous radial density gradients, only the buoyancy forces generated by internal density discontinuities. On the other hand, slowly decaying internal buoyancy forces in a materially incompressible earth model cause it to reach the hydrostatic equilibrium after a considerably longer time than a locally incompressible model. It is important to note that the approximation of local incompressibility provides a solution for a compressible earth model that is superior to the conventional solutions for a compressible earth with homogeneous layers because it is based on an initial state that is consistent with the assumption of compressibility. 相似文献
36.
Max Wyss Malte Westerhaus Hans Berckhemer Ref'an Ates 《Geophysical Journal International》1995,123(1):117-124
The seismicity rate in the Mudurnu Valley of Turkey was studied using an earthquake catalogue that reports events homogeneously down to magnitude 2.3 for the years 1985–1989, and covers the area between latitudes 40.2° and 41.0°N, and longitudes 30.0° and 31.5°E. During this period the only two main shocks, M = 4.0 and M = 4.3, occurred on 1988 September 6 and 1988 December 9 within about 30km of each other. A highly significant seismic quiescence is evident in the area surrounding these main shocks, while the seismicity rate in the rest of the area covered by the catalogue remains constant. the quiescence becomes more pronounced the smaller the area around the main shocks that is studied. the smallest areas that can be studied contain about 60 earthquakes and have dimensions of approximately 25km on each side. the decreases in seismicity rates are 50–80 per cent depending on the volume and period used for defining the quiescence. the quiescence started in 1988 January and lasted about seven months, with approximately 4.5 months of normal activity separating it from the main shock of December. the precursor time of 12 months for an M = 4.3 main shock is similar to those observed in California. It is concluded that it is possible to resolve precursory quiescence before moderate and large earthquakes in the Mudurnu area with the existing seismograph network. 相似文献
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Water resources in New Zealand are not evenly distributed across the country which makes it difficult to adequately allocate the use of water resources in every basin. Groundwater is a fundamental water resource in New Zealand for agricultural, industrial and domestic use. Detailed knowledge regarding groundwater recharge potential is a pre-requisite for sustainable groundwater management, including the assessment of its vulnerability to contamination by pollutants. In this study, a comprehensive GIS approach was used to map the potential groundwater recharge zones across New Zealand. National data sets of lithology, slope, aspect, land use, soil drainage and drainage density were converted to raster data sets with a spatial resolution of 500 m × 500 m and superimposed to derive groundwater potential zones. The resultant maps demonstrate that the potential is low in urban and mountainous areas, such as the Southern Alps, whereas the highest potential can be found in regions with large lakes and in the lower elevation plains areas, where Quaternary sediments prevail. The resulting maps can be used to identify areas of high nutrient leaching in zones where high groundwater recharge potential exists. 相似文献
40.
The distribution of megablocks in the Ries crater,Germany: Remote sensing,field investigation,and statistical analyses 
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下载免费PDF全文 Sebastian Sturm Thomas Kenkmann Malte Willmes Gisela Pösges Harald Hiesinger 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2015,50(1):141-171
The Ries crater is a well‐preserved, complex impact crater that has been extensively used in the study of impact crater formation processes across the solar system. However, its geologic structure, especially the megablock zone, still poses questions regarding crater formation mechanics. The megablock zone, located between the inner crystalline ring and outer, morphologic crater rim, consists of allochthonous crystalline and sedimentary blocks, Bunte Breccia deposits, patches of suevite, and parautochthonous sedimentary blocks that slumped into the crater during crater modification. Our remote sensing detection method in combination with a shallow drilling campaign and geoelectric measurements at two selected megablocks proved successful in finding new megablock structures (>25 m mean diameter) within the upper approximately 1.5 m of the subsurface in the megablock zone. We analyzed 1777 megablocks of the megablock zone, 81 of which are new discoveries. In our statistical analysis, we also included 2318 ejecta blocks >25 m beyond the crater rim. Parautochthonous megablocks show an increase in total area and size toward the final crater rim. The sizes of allochthonous megablocks generally decrease with increasing radial range, but inside the megablock zone, the coverage with postimpact sediments obscures this trend. The size‐frequency distribution of all megablocks obeys a power‐law distribution with an exponent between approximately ?1.7 and ?2.3. We estimated a total volume of 95 km3 of Bunte Breccia and 47 km3 of megablocks. Ejecta volume calculations and a palinspastic restoration of the extension within the megablock zone indicate that the transient cavity diameter was probably 14–15 km. 相似文献